Temporal Dynamics of European Bat Lyssavirus Type 1 and Survival of Myotis myotis Bats in Natural Colonies

Many emerging RNA viruses of public health concern have recently been detected in bats. However, the dynamics of these viruses in natural bat colonies is presently unknown. Consequently, prediction of the spread of these viruses and the establishment of appropriate control measures are hindered by a lack of information. To this aim, we collected epidemiological, virological and ecological data during a twelve-year longitudinal study in two colonies of insectivorous bats (Myotis myotis) located in Spain and infected by the most common bat lyssavirus found in Europe, the European bat lyssavirus subtype 1 (EBLV-1). This active survey demonstrates that cyclic lyssavirus infections occurred with periodic oscillations in the number of susceptible, immune and infected bats. Persistence of immunity for more than one year was detected in some individuals. These data were further used to feed models to analyze the temporal dynamics of EBLV-1 and the survival rate of bats. According to these models, the infection is characterized by a predicted low basic reproductive rate (R0 = 1.706) and a short infectious period (D = 5.1 days). In contrast to observations in most non-flying animals infected with rabies, the survival model shows no variation in mortality after EBLV-1 infection of M. myotis. These findings have considerable public health implications in terms of management of colonies where lyssavirus-positive bats have been recorded and confirm the potential risk of rabies transmission to humans. A greater understanding of the dynamics of lyssavirus in bat colonies also provides a model to study how bats contribute to the maintenance and transmission of other viruses of public health concern

Characteristics of hepatitis C virus resistance in an international cohort after a decade of direct-acting antivirals

Background & Aims: Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens provide a cure in >95% of patients with chronic HCV infection. However, in some patients in whom therapy fails, resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) can develop, limiting retreatment options and risking onward resistant virus transmission. In this study, we evaluated RAS prevalence and distribution, including novel NS5A RASs and clinical factors associated with RAS selection, among patients who experienced DAA treatment failure. Methods: SHARED is an international consortium of clinicians and scientists studying HCV drug resistance. HCV sequence linked metadata from 3,355 patients were collected from 22 countries. NS3, NS5A, and NS5B RASs in virologic failures, including novel NS5A substitutions, were examined. Associations of clinical and demographic characteristics with RAS selection were investigated. Results: The frequency of RASs increased from its natural prevalence following DAA exposure: 37% to 60% in NS3, 29% to 80% in NS5A, 15% to 22% in NS5B for sofosbuvir, and 24% to 37% in NS5B for dasabuvir. Among 730 virologic failures, most were treated with first-generation DAAs, 94% had drug resistance in ≥1 DAA class: 31% single-class resistance, 42% dual-class resistance (predominantly against protease and NS5A inhibitors), and 21% triple-class resistance. Distinct patterns containing ≥2 highly resistant RASs were common. New potential NS5A RASs and adaptive changes were identified in genotypes 1a, 3, and 4. Following DAA failure, RAS selection was more frequent in older people with cirrhosis and those infected with genotypes 1b and 4. Conclusions: Drug resistance in HCV is frequent after DAA treatment failure. Previously unrecognized substitutions continue to emerge and remain uncharacterized. Lay summary: Although direct-acting antiviral medications effectively cure hepatitis C in most patients, sometimes treatment selects for resistant viruses, causing antiviral drugs to be either ineffective or only partially effective. Multidrug resistance is common in patients for whom DAA treatment fails. Older patients and patients with advanced liver diseases are more likely to select drug-resistant viruses. Collective efforts from international communities and governments are needed to develop an optimal approach to managing drug resistance and preventing the transmission of resistant viruses

Using combined diagnostic test results to hindcast trends of infection from cross-sectional data

Infectious disease surveillance is key to limiting the consequences from infectious pathogens and maintaining animal and public health. Following the detection of a disease outbreak, a response in proportion to the severity of the outbreak is required. It is thus critical to obtain accurate information concerning the origin of the outbreak and its forward trajectory. However, there is often a lack of situational awareness that may lead to over- or under-reaction. There is a widening range of tests available for detecting pathogens, with typically different temporal characteristics, e.g. in terms of when peak test response occurs relative to time of exposure. We have developed a statistical framework that combines response level data from multiple diagnostic tests and is able to ‘hindcast’ (infer the historical trend of) an infectious disease epidemic. Assuming diagnostic test data from a cross-sectional sample of individuals infected with a pathogen during an outbreak, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate time of exposure, and the overall epidemic trend in the population prior to the time of sampling. We evaluate the performance of this statistical framework on simulated data from epidemic trend curves and show that we can recover the parameter values of those trends. We also apply the framework to epidemic trend curves taken from two historical outbreaks: a bluetongue outbreak in cattle, and a whooping cough outbreak in humans. Together, these results show that hindcasting can estimate the time since infection for individuals and provide accurate estimates of epidemic trends, and can be used to distinguish whether an outbreak is increasing or past its peak. We conclude that if temporal characteristics of diagnostics are known, it is possible to recover epidemic trends of both human and animal pathogens from cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time

Social factors related to the clinical severity of influenza cases in Spain during the A(H1N1)2009 virus pandemic

Background During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a change in the type of patients most often affected by influenza was observed. The objective of this study was to assess the role of individual and social determinants in hospitalizations due to influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods We studied hospitalized patients (cases) and outpatients (controls) with confirmed influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data. Variables that might be related to the hospitalization of influenza cases were compared by estimation of the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and the variables entered into binomial logistic regression models. Results Hospitalization due to pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections was associated with non-Caucasian ethnicity (OR: 2.18, 95% CI 1.17 − 4.08), overcrowding (OR: 2.84, 95% CI 1.20 − 6.72), comorbidity and the lack of previous preventive information (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.50 − 4.83). Secondary or higher education was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization (OR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.36 − 0.87) Conclusions In addition to individual factors such as comorbidity, other factors such as educational level, ethnicity or overcrowding were associated with hospitalization due to A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections

Prevalence of vascular disruption anomalies and association with young maternal age: A EUROCAT study to compare the United Kingdom with other European countries.

BACKGROUND: Younger mothers are at a greater risk of having a pregnancy with gastroschisis and the risk is higher in the United Kingdom than other European countries. Gastroschisis is thought to be a vascular disruption anomaly and the aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of other possible vascular disruption anomalies to determine whether both the younger maternal age and the UK associations also occur with these anomalies. METHODS: All pregnancies with anomalies considered potentially due to vascular disruption from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2017 from 26 European population-based congenital anomaly registries who were members of EUROCAT were analyzed. Multilevel models were used to allow for differences between registries when analyzing associations with maternal age, year of birth and whether the registry was in the United Kingdom. RESULTS: There were 5,220 cases with potential vascular disruption anomalies, excluding chromosomal and genetic conditions, with a prevalence of 8.85 per 10,000 births in the United Kingdom and 5.44 in the other European countries. The prevalence per 10,000 births of gastroschisis (4.45 vs. 1.56) and congenital constriction bands (0.83 vs. 0.42) was significantly higher in the United Kingdom, even after adjusting for maternal age. However, transverse limb reduction defects had a similar prevalence (2.16 vs. 2.14 per 10,000). The expected increased prevalence in younger mothers was observed for vascular disruption anomalies overall and for the individual anomalies: gastroschisis and congenital constriction bands. CONCLUSION: Vascular disruption anomalies that had an increased risk for younger mothers (such as gastroschisis) had a higher maternal age standardized prevalence in the United Kingdom, while vascular disruption anomalies with weaker associations with younger mothers (such as transverse limb reduction defects) did not have an increased prevalence in the United Kingdom, which may indicate a different etiology for these anomalies