Reservoir characterization of the Ordovician Red River Formation in southwest Williston Basin Bowman County, ND and Harding County, SD

This topical report is a compilation of characterizations by different disciplines of the Red River Formation in the southwest portion of the Williston Basin and the oil reservoirs which it contains in an area which straddles the state line between North Dakota and South Dakota. Goals of the report are to increase understanding of the reservoir rocks, oil-in-place, heterogeneity, and methods for improved recovery. The report is divided by discipline into five major sections: (1) geology, (2) petrography-petrophysical, (3) engineering, (4) case studies and (5) geophysical. Interwoven in these sections are results from demonstration wells which were drilled or selected for special testing to evaluate important concepts for field development and enhanced recovery. The Red River study area has been successfully explored with two-dimensional (2D) seismic. Improved reservoir characterization utilizing 3-dimensional (3D) and has been investigated for identification of structural and stratigraphic reservoir compartments. These seismic characterization tools are integrated with geological and engineering studies. Targeted drilling from predictions using 3D seismic for porosity development were successful in developing significant reserves at close distances to old wells. Short-lateral and horizontal drilling technologies were tested for improved completion efficiency. Lateral completions should improve economics for both primary and secondary recovery where low permeability is a problem and higher density drilling is limited by drilling cost. Low water injectivity and widely spaced wells have restricted the application of waterflooding in the past. Water injection tests were performed in both a vertical and a horizontal well. Data from these tests were used to predict long-term injection and oil recovery

Design of a vehicle based system to prevent ozone loss

This project is designed to be completed over a three year period. Overall project goals are: (1) to understand the processes that contribute to stratospheric ozone loss; (2) to determine the best scheme to prevent ozone loss; and (3) to design a vehicle based system to carry out the prevention scheme. The 1993/1994 design objectives included: (1) to review the results of the 1992/1993 design team, including a reevaluation of the key assumptions used; (2) to develop a matrix of baseline vehicle concepts as candidates for the delivery vehicle; and (3) to develop a selection criteria and perform quantitative trade studies to use in the selection of the specific vehicle concept

The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This “zero emissions commitment” (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget – a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 ∘C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) – a branch from the 1 % CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation – with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO₂

The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is −0.36 to 0.29 ∘C, with a model ensemble mean of −0.07 ∘C, median of −0.05 ∘C, and standard deviation of 0.19 ∘C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory

The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This "zero emissions commitment" (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget - a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) - a branch from the 1 CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation - with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available. © 2019 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved

Simulating the global distribution of nitrogen isotopes in the ocean

We present a new nitrogen isotope model incorporated into the three-dimensional ocean component of a global Earth system climate model designed for millennial timescale simulations. The model includes prognostic tracers for the two stable nitrogen isotopes, 14N and 15N, in the nitrate (NO3−), phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus variables of the marine ecosystem model. The isotope effects of algal NO3− uptake, nitrogen fixation, water column denitrification, and zooplankton excretion are considered as well as the removal of NO3− by sedimentary denitrification. A global database of δ15NO3− observations is compiled from previous studies and compared to the model results on a regional basis where sufficient observations exist. The model is able to qualitatively and quantitatively reproduce many of the observed patterns such as high subsurface values in water column denitrification zones and the meridional and vertical gradients in the Southern Ocean. The observed pronounced subsurface minimum in the Atlantic is underestimated by the model presumably owing to too little simulated nitrogen fixation there. Sensitivity experiments reveal that algal NO3− uptake, nitrogen fixation, and water column denitrification have the strongest effects on the simulated distribution of nitrogen isotopes, whereas the effect from zooplankton excretion is weaker. Both water column and sedimentary denitrification also have important indirect effects on the nitrogen isotope distribution by reducing the fixed nitrogen inventory, which creates an ecological niche for nitrogen fixers and, thus, stimulates additional N2 fixation in the model. Important model deficiencies are identified, and strategies for future improvement and possibilities for model application are outlined

Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies — not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Nature Publishing Group and can be found at: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/index.htm

Twin and family studies reveal strong environmental and weaker genetic cues explaining heritability of eosinophilic esophagitis

Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic antigen-driven allergic inflammatory disease, likely involving the interplay of genetic and environmental factors, yet their respective contributions to heritability are unknown

Cold atoms in space: community workshop summary and proposed road-map

We summarise the discussions at a virtual Community Workshop on Cold Atoms in Space concerning the status of cold atom technologies, the prospective scientific and societal opportunities offered by their deployment in space, and the developments needed before cold atoms could be operated in space. The cold atom technologies discussed include atomic clocks, quantum gravimeters and accelerometers, and atom interferometers. Prospective applications include metrology, geodesy and measurement of terrestrial mass change due to, e.g., climate change, and fundamental science experiments such as tests of the equivalence principle, searches for dark matter, measurements of gravitational waves and tests of quantum mechanics. We review the current status of cold atom technologies and outline the requirements for their space qualification, including the development paths and the corresponding technical milestones, and identifying possible pathfinder missions to pave the way for missions to exploit the full potential of cold atoms in space. Finally, we present a first draft of a possible road-map for achieving these goals, that we propose for discussion by the interested cold atom, Earth Observation, fundamental physics and other prospective scientific user communities, together with the European Space Agency (ESA) and national space and research funding agencies.publishedVersio

Cold atoms in space: community workshop summary and proposed road-map

We summarise the discussions at a virtual Community Workshop on Cold Atoms in Space concerning the status of cold atom technologies, the prospective scientific and societal opportunities offered by their deployment in space, and the developments needed before cold atoms could be operated in space. The cold atom technologies discussed include atomic clocks, quantum gravimeters and accelerometers, and atom interferometers. Prospective applications include metrology, geodesy and measurement of terrestrial mass change due to, e.g., climate change, and fundamental science experiments such as tests of the equivalence principle, searches for dark matter, measurements of gravitational waves and tests of quantum mechanics. We review the current status of cold atom technologies and outline the requirements for their space qualification, including the development paths and the corresponding technical milestones, and identifying possible pathfinder missions to pave the way for missions to exploit the full potential of cold atoms in space. Finally, we present a first draft of a possible road-map for achieving these goals, that we propose for discussion by the interested cold atom, Earth Observation, fundamental physics and other prospective scientific user communities, together with the European Space Agency (ESA) and national space and research funding agencies