Engineering design applications of surrogate-assisted optimization techniques

The construction of models aimed at learning the behaviour of a system whose responses to inputs are expensive to measure is a branch of statistical science that has been around for a very long time. Geostatistics has pioneered a drive over the last half century towards a better understanding of the accuracy of such ‘surrogate’ models of the expensive function. Of particular interest to us here are some of the even more recent advances related to exploiting such formulations in an optimization context. While the classic goal of the modelling process has been to achieve a uniform prediction accuracy across the domain, an economical optimization process may aim to bias the distribution of the learning budget towards promising basins of attraction. This can only happen, of course, at the expense of the global exploration of the space and thus finding the best balance may be viewed as an optimization problem in itself. We examine here a selection of the state of-the-art solutions to this type of balancing exercise through the prism of several simple, illustrative problems, followed by two ‘real world’ applications: the design of a regional airliner wing and the multi-objective search for a low environmental impact hous

Spectroscopic analysis of finite size effects around a Kondo quantum dot

We consider a simple setup in which a small quantum dot is strongly connected to a finite size box. This box can be either a metallic box or a finite size quantum wire.The formation of the Kondo screening cloud in the box strongly depends on the ratio between the Kondo temperature and the box level spacing. By weakly connecting two metallic reservoirs to the quantum dot, a detailed spectroscopic analysis can be performed. Since the transport channels and the screening channels are almost decoupled, such a setup allows an easier access to the measure of finite-size effects associated with the finite extension of the Kondo cloud.Comment: contribution to Les Houches proceeding, ``Quantum magnetism'' 200

Exploring the polarization of gluons in the nucleon

We give an overview of the current status of investigations of the polarization of gluons in the nucleon. We describe some of the physics of the spin-dependent gluon parton distribution and its phenomenology in high-energy polarized hadronic scattering. We also review the recent experimental results.Comment: 10 pages, 13 figures. Talk presented at the "Second Meeting of the APS Topical Group on Hadronic Physics", Nashville, Tennessee, October 22-24, 2006. Reference adde

Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Comparison of usefulness of computer assisted continuous 48-h 3-lead with 12-lead ECG ischaemia monitoring for detection and quantitation of ischaemia in patients with unstable angina

AIMS: The selection of ECG leads used for ST monitoring may influence detection and quantitation of ischaemia. METHODS: We compared on-line continuous 48-h 12-lead against 3-lead ST monitoring in 130 unstable angina patients (Mortara. ELI-100). Onset and offset of ST episodes were defined by the lead with the first > or = 100 microV ST change relative to baseline and the lead with the latest return to baseline ST level, respectively. ST episodes were calculated for 12 leads and 3 leads (V2, V5, III) separately. RESULTS: ST episodes were detected in 88 patients (77%) by 12-lead and in 71 patients (62%) by 3-lead ST monitoring (P < 0.02). The median number (25.75%) of episodes/patient was 1 (0.3) for 3-lead and 2 (1.6) for 12-lead (P < 0.0001). The total duration of ischaemia detected during 12-lead far exceeded 3-lead monitoring: 12.3 (1, 58.2) and 1.7 (0, 23.3) min respectively (P < 0.0001). The probability of recurrent ischaemia declined most during the first 24 h of monitoring. After a period without ST changes of 1, 12, 24 and 36 h, the probabilities of recurrent ischaemia were 63, 31, 14 and 9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous 12-lead ST monitoring increases detection rate and duration of ST episodes compared to 3-lead ST monitoring. The use of continuous 12-lead ECG monitoring devices on emergency wards and coronary care units is recommended

Increasing the frequency of hand washing by healthcare workers does not lead to commensurate reductions in staphylococcal infection in a hospital ward

Hand hygiene is generally considered to be the most important measure that can be applied to prevent the spread of healthcare-associated infection (HAI). Continuous emphasis on this intervention has lead to the widespread opinion that HAI rates can be greatly reduced by increased hand hygiene compliance alone. However, this assumes that the effectiveness of hand hygiene is not constrained by other factors and that improved compliance in excess of a given level, in itself, will result in a commensurate reduction in the incidence of HAI. However, several researchers have found the law of diminishing returns to apply to hand hygiene, with the greatest benefits occurring in the first 20% or so of compliance, and others have demonstrated that poor cohorting of nursing staff profoundly influences the effectiveness of hand hygiene measures. Collectively, these findings raise intriguing questions about the extent to which increasing compliance alone can further reduce rates of HAI. In order to investigate these issues further, we constructed a deterministic Ross-Macdonald model and applied it to a hypothetical general medical ward. In this model the transmission of staphylococcal infection was assumed to occur after contact with the transiently colonized hands of HCWs, who, in turn, acquire contamination only by touching colonized patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of imperfect hand cleansing on the transmission of staphylococcal infection and to identify, whether there is a limit, above which further hand hygiene compliance is unlikely to be of benefit. The model demonstrated that if transmission is solely via the hands of HCWs, it should, under most circumstances, be possible to prevent outbreaks of staphylococcal infection from occurring at a hand cleansing frequencies <50%, even with imperfect hand hygiene. The analysis also indicated that the relationship between hand cleansing efficacy and frequency is not linear - as efficacy decreases, so the hand cleansing frequency required to ensure R0<1 increases disproportionately. Although our study confirmed hand hygiene to be an effective control measure, it demonstrated that the law of diminishing returns applies, with the greatest benefit derived from the first 20% or so of compliance. Indeed, our analysis suggests that there is little benefit to be accrued from very high levels of hand cleansing and that in most situations compliance >40% should be enough to prevent outbreaks of staphylococcal infection occurring, if transmission is solely via the hands of HCWs. Furthermore we identified a non-linear relationship between hand cleansing efficacy and frequency, suggesting that it is important to maximise the efficacy of the hand cleansing process

Soil methane sink capacity response to a long-term wildfire chronosequence in Northern Sweden

Boreal forests occupy nearly one fifth of the terrestrial land surface and are recognised as globally important regulators of carbon (C) cycling and greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon sequestration processes in these forests include assimilation of CO2 into biomass and subsequently into soil organic matter, and soil microbial oxidation of methane (CH4). In this study we explored how ecosystem retrogression, which drives vegetation change, regulates the important process of soil CH4 oxidation in boreal forests. We measured soil CH4 oxidation processes on a group of 30 forested islands in northern Sweden differing greatly in fire history, and collectively representing a retrogressive chronosequence, spanning 5000 years. Across these islands the build-up of soil organic matter was observed to increase with time since fire disturbance, with a significant correlation between greater humus depth and increased net soil CH4 oxidation rates. We suggest that this increase in net CH4 oxidation rates, in the absence of disturbance, results as deeper humus stores accumulate and provide niches for methanotrophs to thrive. By using this gradient we have discovered important regulatory controls on the stability of soil CH4 oxidation processes that could not have not been explored through shorter-term experiments. Our findings indicate that in the absence of human interventions such as fire suppression, and with increased wildfire frequency, the globally important boreal CH4 sink could be diminished

Analyzing Recent Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009.

BACKGROUND: In Tunisia, Cardiovascular Diseases are the leading causes of death (30%), 70% of those are coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and population studies have demonstrated that major risk factor levels are increasing. OBJECTIVE: To explain recent CHD trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009. METHODS: DATA SOURCES: Published and unpublished data were identified by extensive searches, complemented with specifically designed surveys. ANALYSIS: Data were integrated and analyzed using the previously validated IMPACT CHD policy model. Data items included: (i)number of CHD patients in specific groups (including acute coronary syndromes, congestive heart failure and chronic angina)(ii) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, and(iii) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes and physical inactivity). RESULTS: CHD mortality rates increased by 11.8% for men and 23.8% for women, resulting in 680 additional CHD deaths in 2009 compared with the 1997 baseline, after adjusting for population change. Almost all (98%) of this rise was explained by risk factor increases, though men and women differed. A large rise in total cholesterol level in men (0.73 mmol/L) generated 440 additional deaths. In women, a fall (-0.43 mmol/L), apparently avoided about 95 deaths. For SBP a rise in men (4 mmHg) generated 270 additional deaths. In women, a 2 mmHg fall avoided 65 deaths. BMI and diabetes increased substantially resulting respectively in 105 and 75 additional deaths. Increased treatment uptake prevented about 450 deaths in 2009. The most important contributions came from secondary prevention following Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) (95 fewer deaths), initial AMI treatments (90), antihypertensive medications (80) and unstable angina (75). CONCLUSIONS: Recent trends in CHD mortality mainly reflected increases in major modifiable risk factors, notably SBP and cholesterol, BMI and diabetes. Current prevention strategies are mainly focused on treatments but should become more comprehensive

An individual based computational model of intestinal crypt fission and its application to predicting unrestrictive growth of the intestinal epithelium.

Intestinal crypt fission is a homeostatic phenomenon, observable in healthy adult mucosa, but which also plays a pathological role as the main mode of growth of some intestinal polyps. Building on our previous individual based model for the small intestinal crypt and on in vitro cultured intestinal organoids, we here model crypt fission as a budding process based on fluid mechanics at the individual cell level and extrapolated predictions for growth of the intestinal epithelium. Budding was always observed in regions of organoids with abundant Paneth cells. Our data support a model in which buds are biomechanically initiated by single stem cells surrounded by Paneth cells which exhibit greater resistance to viscoelastic deformation, a hypothesis supported by atomic force measurements of single cells. Time intervals between consecutive budding events, as simulated by the model and observed in vitro, were 2.84 and 2.62 days, respectively. Predicted cell dynamics was unaffected within the original crypt which retained its full capability of providing cells to the epithelium throughout fission. Mitotic pressure in simulated primary crypts forced upward migration of buds, which simultaneously grew into new protruding crypts at a rate equal to 1.03 days-1 in simulations and 0.99 days-1 in cultured organoids. Simulated crypts reached their final size in 4.6 days, and required 40 6.2 days to migrate to the top of the primary crypt. The growth of the secondary crypt is independent of its migration along the original crypt. Assuming unrestricted crypt fission and multiple budding events, a maximal growth rate of the intestinal epithelium of 0.10 days-1 43 is predicted and thus approximately 22 days are required for a 10-fold increase of polyp size. These predictions are in agreement with the time reported to develop macroscopic adenomas in mice after loss of Apc in intestinal stem cells

Patient-centric trials for therapeutic development in precision oncology

An enhanced understanding of the molecular pathology of disease gained from genomic studies is facilitating the development of treatments that target discrete molecular subclasses of tumours. Considerable associated challenges include how to advance and implement targeted drug-development strategies. Precision medicine centres on delivering the most appropriate therapy to a patient on the basis of clinical and molecular features of their disease. The development of therapeutic agents that target molecular mechanisms is driving innovation in clinical-trial strategies. Although progress has been made, modifications to existing core paradigms in oncology drug development will be required to realize fully the promise of precision medicine