Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies

There is a vast literature on exchange rate forecasting focusing on developed economies. Since the early 1990s, many developing economies have liberalized their financial accounts, and become an integral part of the international financial system. A series of financial crises experienced by these emerging market economies ed them to switch to some form of a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with inflation targeting. These developments, in turn, accentuate the need for exchange rate forecasting in such economies. This paper is a first attempt to compile data from the emerging Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies, to evaluate the performance of versions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, and time series models for forecasting exchange rates. Forecast performance of these models at various horizons are evaluated against that of a random walk, which, overwhelmingly, was found to be the best exchange rate predictor for developed economies in the previous literature. Following Clark and West (2006, 2007) for forecast performance analysis, we report that in short horizons, structural models and time series models outperform the random walk for the six CEE countries in the data set

In vivo MRI with Concurrent Excitation and Acquisition using Automated Active Analog Cancellation

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides excellent cross-sectional images of the soft tissues in patients. Unfortunately, MRI is intrinsically slow, it exposes patients to severe acoustic noise levels, and is limited in the visualization of certain tissues such as bone. These limitations are partly caused by the timing structure of the MRI exam which first generates the MR signal by a strong radio-frequency excitation and later acquires the weak MRI signal. Concurrent excitation and acquisition (CEA) can overcome these limitations, but is extremely challenging due to the huge intensity difference between transmit and receive signal (up to 100 dB). To suppress the strong transmit signals during signal reception, a fully automated analog cancellation unit was designed. On a 3 Tesla clinical MRI system we achieved an on-resonance analog isolation of 90 dB between the transmit and receive path, so that CEA images of the head and the extremities could be acquired with an acquisition efficiency of higher than 90% at sound pressure levels close to background noise. CEA with analog cancellation might provide new opportunities for MRI in tissues with very short T2 relaxation times, and it offers a silent and time-efficient MRI acquisition

One Loop Beta Functions in Topologically Massive Gravity

We calculate the running of the three coupling constants in cosmological, topologically massive 3d gravity. We find that \nu, the dimensionless coefficient of the Chern-Simons term, has vanishing beta function. The flow of the cosmological constant and Newton's constant depends on \nu, and for any positive \nu there exist both a trivial and a nontrivial fixed point.Comment: 44 pages, 16 figure

Kundt spacetimes as solutions of topologically massive gravity

We obtain new solutions of topologically massive gravity. We find the general Kundt solutions, which in three dimensions are spacetimes admitting an expansion-free null geodesic congruence. The solutions are generically of algebraic type II, but special cases are types III, N or D. Those of type D are the known spacelike-squashed AdS_3 solutions, and of type N are the known AdS pp-waves or new solutions. Those of types II and III are the first known solutions of these algebraic types. We present explicitly the Kundt solutions that are CSI spacetimes, for which all scalar polynomial curvature invariants are constant, whereas for the general case we reduce the field equations to a series of ordinary differential equations. The CSI solutions of types II and III are deformations of spacelike-squashed AdS_3 and the round AdS_3, respectively.Comment: 30 pages. This material has come from splitting v1 of arXiv:0906.3559 into 2 separate papers. v2: minor changes

Coastal scenic assessment and tourism management in western Cuba

Coastal scenic assessments via checklist tables (18 natural, 8 human related parameters), can provide benchmark measures regarding desirable/non-desirable beach conditions and also classify sites. The scenic value for 43 sites in western Cuba was investigated, with the aim of helping managers improve bathing areas, especially for tourism purposes. Sites were categorised from Class 1, (top grade scenery), between La Habana and Matanzas, as extremely attractive, with white sand, turquoise water and additional scenic elements. Class 2 sites were located in Varadero, and their high scores were greatly due to appropriate human interventions, e.g. beach nourishment and dune restoration works. Classes 3 to 5 (the latter having very poor scenery), included sites with low scores for natural parameters. For these sites, coastal managers can do little to alleviate scenic impact, apart from addressing the human parameters, where improvement is possible, e.g. by litter removal together with the present chaotic protective structures

On Critical Massive (Super)Gravity in adS3

We review the status of three-dimensional "general massive gravity" (GMG) in its linearization about an anti-de Sitter (adS) vacuum, focusing on critical points in parameter space that yield generalizations of "chiral gravity". We then show how these results extend to N=1 super-GMG, expanded about a supersymmetric adS vacuum, and also to the most general `curvature-squared' N=1 supergravity model.Comment: 10 pages, Proceedings of ERE 2010, Granada, 6-10 september 2010; reference adde

Higher Derivative Extension of 6D Chiral Gauged Supergravity

Six-dimensional (1,0) supersymmetric gauged Einstein-Maxwell supergravity is extended by the inclusion of a supersymmetric Riemann tensor squared invariant. Both the original model as well as the Riemann tensor squared invariant are formulated off-shell and consequently the total action is off-shell invariant without modification of the supersymmetry transformation rules. In this formulation, superconformal techniques, in which the dilaton Weyl multiplet plays a crucial role, are used. It is found that the gauging of the U(1) R-symmetry in the presence of the higher-order derivative terms does not modify the positive exponential in the dilaton potential. Moreover, the supersymmetric Minkowski(4) x S^2 compactification of the original model, without the higher-order derivatives, is remarkably left intact. It is shown that the model also admits non-supersymmetric vacuum solutions that are direct product spaces involving de Sitter spacetimes and negative curvature internal spaces.Comment: 32 pages; typos corrected, footnote in conclusions section adde

Numerical Analysis of Three-dimensional Acoustic Cloaks and Carpets

We start by a review of the chronology of mathematical results on the Dirichlet-to-Neumann map which paved the way towards the physics of transformational acoustics. We then rederive the expression for the (anisotropic) density and bulk modulus appearing in the pressure wave equation written in the transformed coordinates. A spherical acoustic cloak consisting of an alternation of homogeneous isotropic concentric layers is further proposed based on the effective medium theory. This cloak is characterised by a low reflection and good efficiency over a large bandwidth for both near and far fields, which approximates the ideal cloak with a inhomogeneous and anisotropic distribution of material parameters. The latter suffers from singular material parameters on its inner surface. This singularity depends upon the sharpness of corners, if the cloak has an irregular boundary, e.g. a polyhedron cloak becomes more and more singular when the number of vertices increases if it is star shaped. We thus analyse the acoustic response of a non-singular spherical cloak designed by blowing up a small ball instead of a point, as proposed in [Kohn, Shen, Vogelius, Weinstein, Inverse Problems 24, 015016, 2008]. The multilayered approximation of this cloak requires less extreme densities (especially for the lowest bound). Finally, we investigate another type of non-singular cloaks, known as invisibility carpets [Li and Pendry, Phys. Rev. Lett. 101, 203901, 2008], which mimic the reflection by a flat ground.Comment: Latex, 21 pages, 7 Figures, last version submitted to Wave Motion. OCIS Codes: (000.3860) Mathematical methods in physics; (260.2110) Electromagnetic theory; (160.3918) Metamaterials; (160.1190) Anisotropic optical materials; (350.7420) Waves; (230.1040) Acousto-optical devices; (160.1050) Acousto-optical materials; (290.5839) Scattering,invisibility; (230.3205) Invisibility cloak

Witten-Nester Energy in Topologically Massive Gravity

We formulate topologically massive supergravity with cosmological constant in the first order formalism, and construct the Noether supercurrent and superpotential associated with its local supersymmetry. Using these results, we construct in ordinary topologically massive gravity the Witten-Nester integral for conserved charges containing spinors which satisfy a generalized version of Witten equation on the initial value surface. We show that the Witten-Nester charge, represented as an integral over the boundary of the initial value surface produces the Abbott-Deser-Tekin energy for asymptotically anti de Sitter spacetimes. We consider all values of the Chern-Simons coupling constant, including the critical value known as the chiral point, and study the cases of standard Brown-Henneaux boundary conditions, as well as their weaker version that allow a slower fall-off. Studying the Witten-Nester energy as a bulk integral over the initial value surface instead, we find a bound on the energy, and through it the sufficient condition for the positivity of the energy. In particular, we find that spacetimes of Petrov type N that admit globally well defined solutions of the generalized Witten equation have positive energy.Comment: 43 page