Horseshoe-based Bayesian nonparametric estimation of effective population size trajectories

Phylodynamics is an area of population genetics that uses genetic sequence data to estimate past population dynamics. Modern state-of-the-art Bayesian nonparametric methods for recovering population size trajectories of unknown form use either change-point models or Gaussian process priors. Change-point models suffer from computational issues when the number of change-points is unknown and needs to be estimated. Gaussian process-based methods lack local adaptivity and cannot accurately recover trajectories that exhibit features such as abrupt changes in trend or varying levels of smoothness. We propose a novel, locally-adaptive approach to Bayesian nonparametric phylodynamic inference that has the flexibility to accommodate a large class of functional behaviors. Local adaptivity results from modeling the log-transformed effective population size a priori as a horseshoe Markov random field, a recently proposed statistical model that blends together the best properties of the change-point and Gaussian process modeling paradigms. We use simulated data to assess model performance, and find that our proposed method results in reduced bias and increased precision when compared to contemporary methods. We also use our models to reconstruct past changes in genetic diversity of human hepatitis C virus in Egypt and to estimate population size changes of ancient and modern steppe bison. These analyses show that our new method captures features of the population size trajectories that were missed by the state-of-the-art methods.Comment: 36 pages, including supplementary informatio

The Influence of the effect of solute on the thermodynamic driving force on grain refinement of Al alloys

Grain refinement is known to be strongly affected by the solute in cast alloys. Addition of some solute can reduce grain size considerably while others have a limited effect. This is usually attributed to the constitutional supercooling which is quantified by the growth restriction factor, Q. However, one factor that has not been considered is whether different solutes have differing effects on the thermodynamic driving force for solidification. This paper reveals that addition of solute reduces the driving force for solidification for a given undercooling, and that for a particular Q value, it is reduced more substantially when adding eutectic-forming solutes than peritectic-forming elements. Therefore, compared with the eutectic-forming solutes, addition of peritectic-forming solutes into Al alloys not only possesses a higher initial nucleation rate resulted from the larger thermodynamic driving force for solidification, but also promotes nucleation within the constitutionally supercooled zone during growth. As subsequent nucleation can occur at smaller constitutional supercoolings for peritectic-forming elements, a smaller grain size is thus produced. The very small constitutional supercooling required to trigger subsequent nucleation in alloys containing Ti is considered as a major contributor to its extraordinary grain refining efficiency in cast Al alloys even without the deliberate addition of inoculants.The Australian Research Council (ARC DP10955737)

Climatological Statistics of Extreme Geomagnetic Fluctuations With Periods From 1 s to 60 min

Using a global database of 125 magnetometers covering several decades, we present occurrence statistics for fluctuations of the horizontal geomagnetic field (dBh/dt) exceeding the 99.97th percentile (P99.97) for both ramp changes (Rn) and the root-mean-square (Sn) of fluctuations over periods, τ, from 1 to 60 min and describe their variation with geomagnetic latitude and magnetic local time (MLT). Rates of exceedance are explained by reference to the magneto-ionospheric processes dominant in different latitude and MLT sectors, including ULF waves, interplanetary shocks, auroral substorm currents, and traveling convection vortices. By fitting generalized Pareto tail distributions above P99.97, we predict return levels (RLs) for Rn and Sn over return periods of between 5 and 500 years. P99.97 and RLs increase monotonically with frequency (1/τ) (with a few exceptions at auroral latitudes) and this is well modeled by quadratic functions whose coefficients vary smoothly with latitude. For UK magnetometers providing 1-s cadence measurements, the analysis is extended to cover periods from 1 to 60 s and empirical Magnetotelluric Transfer functions are used to predict percentiles and return levels of the geoelectric field over a wide frequency range (2 × 10−4 to 4 × 10−2 Hz) assuming a sinusoidal field fluctuation. These results help identify the principal causes of field fluctuations leading to extreme geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in ground infrastructure over a range of timescales and they inform the choice of frequency dependence to use with dBh/dt as a GIC proxy

An epitaxial model for heterogeneous nucleation on potent substrates

© The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society and ASM International 2012In this article, we present an epitaxial model for heterogeneous nucleation on potent substrates. It is proposed that heterogeneous nucleation of the solid phase (S) on a potent substrate (N) occurs by epitaxial growth of a pseudomorphic solid (PS) layer on the substrate surface under a critical undercooling (ΔT ). The PS layer with a coherent PS/N interface mimics the atomic arrangement of the substrate, giving rise to a linear increase of misfit strain energy with layer thickness. At a critical thickness (h ), elastic strain energy reaches a critical level, at which point, misfit dislocations are created to release the elastic strain energy in the PS layer. This converts the strained PS layer to a strainless solid (S), and changes the initial coherent PS/N interface into a semicoherent S/N interface. Beyond this critical thickness, further growth will be strainless, and solidification enters the growth stage. It is shown analytically that the lattice misfit (f) between the solid and the substrate has a strong influence on both h and ΔT ; h decreases; and ΔT increases with increasing lattice misfit. This epitaxial nucleation model will be used to explain qualitatively the generally accepted experimental findings on grain refinement in the literature and to analyze the general approaches to effective grain refinement.EPSRC Centre for Innovative Manufacturing in Liquid Metal Engineerin

The origin of aubrites: Evidence from lithophile trace element abundances and oxygen isotope compositions

We report the abundances of a selected set of “lithophile” trace elements (including lanthanides, actinides and high field strength elements) and high-precision oxygen isotope analyses of a comprehensive suite of aubrites. Two distinct groups of aubrites can be distinguished: (a) the main-group aubrites display flat or light-REE depleted REE patterns with variable Eu and Y anomalies; their pyroxenes are light-REE depleted and show marked negative Eu anomalies; (b) the Mount Egerton enstatites and the silicate fraction from Larned display distinctive light-REE enrichments, and high Th/Sm ratios; Mount Egerton pyroxenes have much less pronounced negative Eu anomalies than pyroxenes from the main-group aubrites. Leaching experiments were undertaken to investigate the contribution of sulfides to the whole rock budget of the main-group aubrites. Sulfides contain in most cases at least 50% of the REEs and of the actinides. Among the elements we have analyzed, those displaying the strongest lithophile behaviors are Rb, Ba, Sr and Sc. The homogeneity of the Δ17O values obtained for main-group aubrite falls [Δ17O = +0.009 ± 0.010‰ (2σ)] suggests that they originated from a single parent body whose differentiation involved an early phase of large-scale melting that may have led to the development of a magma ocean. This interpretation is at first glance in agreement with the limited variability of the shapes of the REE patterns of these aubrites. However, the trace element concentrations of their phases cannot be used to discuss this hypothesis, because their igneous trace-element signatures have been modified by subsolidus exchange. Finally, despite similar O isotopic compositions, the marked light-REE enrichments displayed by Mount Egerton and Larned suggest that they are unrelated to the main-group aubrites and probably originated from a distinct parent body

The Promise, Practice, and State of Planning Tools to Assess Site Vulnerability to Runoff Phosphorus Loss

Publication history: Accepted - 23 October 2017; Published online - 1 November 2017.Over the past 20 yr, there has been a proliferation of phosphorus (P) site assessment tools for nutrient management planning, particularly in the United States. The 19 papers that make up this special section on P site assessment include decision support tools ranging from the P Index to fate-and-transport models to weather-forecast-based risk calculators. All require objective evaluation to ensure that they are effective in achieving intended benefits to protecting water quality. In the United States, efforts have been underway to compare, evaluate, and advance an array of P site assessment tools. Efforts to corroborate their performance using water quality monitoring data confirms previously documented discrepancies between different P site assessment tools but also highlights a surprisingly strong performance of many versions of the P Index as a predictor of water quality. At the same time, fate-and-transport models, often considered to be superior in their prediction of hydrology and water quality due to their complexity, reveal limitations when applied to site assessment. Indeed, one consistent theme from recent experience is the need to calibrate highly parameterized models. As P site assessment evolves, so too do routines representing important aspects of P cycling and transport. New classes of P site assessment tools are an opportunity to move P site assessment from general, strategic goals to web-based tools supporting daily, operational decision

FGF receptor genes and breast cancer susceptibility: results from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium

Background:Breast cancer is one of the most common malignancies in women. Genome-wide association studies have identified FGFR2 as a breast cancer susceptibility gene. Common variation in other fibroblast growth factor (FGF) receptors might also modify risk. We tested this hypothesis by studying genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and imputed SNPs in FGFR1, FGFR3, FGFR4 and FGFRL1 in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Methods:Data were combined from 49 studies, including 53 835 cases and 50 156 controls, of which 89 050 (46 450 cases and 42 600 controls) were of European ancestry, 12 893 (6269 cases and 6624 controls) of Asian and 2048 (1116 cases and 932 controls) of African ancestry. Associations with risk of breast cancer, overall and by disease sub-type, were assessed using unconditional logistic regression. Results:Little evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for SNPs in the FGF receptor genes. The strongest evidence in European women was for rs743682 in FGFR3; the estimated per-allele odds ratio was 1.05 (95 confidence interval=1.02-1.09, P=0.0020), which is substantially lower than that observed for SNPs in FGFR2. Conclusion:Our results suggest that common variants in the other FGF receptors are not associated with risk of breast cancer to the degree observed for FGFR2. © 2014 Cancer Research UK

Grain refinement of magnesium alloys: a review of recent research, theoretical developments and their application

This paper builds on the ‘‘Grain Refinement of Mg Alloys’’ published in 2005 and reviews the grain refinement research onMg alloys that has been undertaken since then with an emphasis on the theoretical and analytical methods that have been developed. Consideration of recent research results and current theoretical knowledge has highlighted two important factors that affect an alloy’s as-cast grain size. The first factor applies to commercial Mg-Al alloys where it is concluded that impurity and minor elements such as Fe and Mn have a substantially negative impact on grain size because, in combination with Al, intermetallic phases can be formed that tend to poison the more potent native or deliberately added nucleant particles present in the melt. This factor appears to explain the contradictory experimental outcomes reported in the literature and suggests that the search for a more potent and reliable grain refining technology may need to take a different approach. The second factor applies to all alloys and is related to the role of constitutional supercooling which, on the one hand, promotes grain nucleation and, on the other hand, forms a nucleation-free zone preventing further nucleation within this zone, consequently limiting the grain refinement achievable, particularly in low solute-containing alloys. Strategies to reduce the negative impact of these two factors are discussed. Further, the Interdependence model has been shown to apply to a broad range of casting methods from slow cooling gravity die casting to fast cooling high pressure die casting and dynamic methods such as ultrasonic treatment

Prostate cancer and Hedgehog signalling pathway

[Abstract] The Hedgehog (Hh) family of intercellular signalling proteins have come to be recognised as key mediators in many fundamental processes in embryonic development. Their activities are central to the growth, patterning and morphogenesis of many different regions within the bodies of vertebrates. In some contexts, Hh signals act as morphogens in the dose-dependent induction of distinct cell fates within a target field, in others as mitogens in the regulation of cell proliferation or as inducing factors controlling the form of a developing organ. These diverse functions of Hh proteins raise many intriguing questions about their mode of action. Various studies have now demonstrated the function of Hh signalling in the control of cell proliferation, especially for stem cells and stem-like progenitors. Abnormal activation of the Hh pathway has been demonstrated in a variety of human tumours. Hh pathway activity in these tumours is required for cancer cell proliferation and tumour growth. Recent studies have uncovered the role for Hh signalling in advanced prostate cancer and demonstrated that autocrine signalling by tumour cells is required for proliferation, viability and invasive behaviour. Thus, Hh signalling represents a novel pathway in prostate cancer that offers opportunities for prognostic biomarker development, drug targeting and therapeutic response monitoring

Taxonomy of the order Mononegavirales: update 2016

In 2016, the order Mononegavirales was emended through the addition of two new families (Mymonaviridae and Sunviridae), the elevation of the paramyxoviral subfamily Pneumovirinae to family status (Pneumoviridae), the addition of five free-floating genera (Anphevirus, Arlivirus, Chengtivirus, Crustavirus, and Wastrivirus), and several other changes at the genus and species levels. This article presents the updated taxonomy of the order Mononegavirales as now accepted by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV)