Modelling the strategies for age specific vaccination scheduling during influenza pandemic outbreaks

Finding optimal policies to reduce the morbidity and mortality of the ongoing pandemic is a top public health priority. Using a compartmental model with age structure and vaccination status, we examined the effect of age specific scheduling of vaccination during a pandemic influenza outbreak, when there is a race between the vaccination campaign and the dynamics of the pandemic. Our results agree with some recent studies on that age specificity is paramount to vaccination planning. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures when they are applied during the outbreak. Comparing five possible strategies, we found that age specific scheduling can have a huge impact on the outcome of the epidemic. For the best scheme, the attack rates were up to 10% lower than for other strategies. We demonstrate the importance of early start of the vaccination campaign, since ten days delay may increase the attack rate by up to 6%. Taking into account the delay between developing immunity and vaccination is a key factor in evaluating the impact of vaccination campaigns. We provide a general framework which will be useful for the next pandemic waves as well

Mesopredator Release by an Emergent Superpredator: A Natural Experiment of Predation in a Three Level Guild

Chakarov N, Krüger O. Mesopredator Release by an Emergent Superpredator: A Natural Experiment of Predation in a Three Level Guild. PLoS ONE. 2010;5(12): e15229.Background: Intraguild predation (IGP) is widespread but it is often neglected that guilds commonly include many layers of dominance within. This could obscure the effects of IGP making unclear whether the intermediate or the bottom mesopredator will bear higher costs from the emergence of a new top predator. Methodology/Principal Findings: In one of the most extensive datasets of avian IGP, we analyse the impact of recolonization of a superpredator, the eagle owl Bubo bubo on breeding success, territorial dynamics and population densities of two mesopredators, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis and its IG prey, the common buzzard Buteo buteo. The data covers more than two decades and encompass three adjacent plots. Eagle owls only recolonized the central plot during the second decade, thereby providing a natural experiment. Both species showed a decrease in standardized reproductive success and an increase in brood failure within 1.5 km of the superpredator. During the second decade, territory dynamics of goshawks was significantly higher in the central plot compared to both other plots. No such pattern existed in buzzards. Goshawk density in the second decade decreased in the central plot, while it increased in both other plots. Buzzard density in the second decade rapidly increased in the north, remained unchanged in the south and increased moderately in the center in a probable case of mesopredator release. Conclusions/Significance: Our study finds support for top-down control on the intermediate mesopredator and both top-down and bottom-up control of the bottom mesopredator. In the face of considerable costs of IGP, both species probably compete to breed in predator-free refugia, which get mostly occupied by the dominant raptor. Therefore for mesopredators the outcome of IGP might depend directly on the number of dominance levels which supersede them

Periodic Host Absence Can Select for Higher or Lower Parasite Transmission Rates

This paper explores the effect of discontinuous periodic host absence on the evolution of pathogen transmission rates by using Ro maximisation techniques. The physiological consequence of an increased transmission rate can be either an increased virulence, i.e. there is a transmission-virulence trade-off or ii) a reduced between season survival, i.e. there is a transmission-survival trade-off. The results reveal that the type of trade-off determines the direction of selection, with relatively longer periods of host absence selecting for higher transmission rates in the presence of a trade-off between transmission and virulence but lower transmission rates in the presence of a trade-of between transmission and between season survival. The fact that for the transmission-virulence trade-off both trade-off parameters operate during host presence whereas for the transmission-survival trade-off one operates during host presence (transmission) and the other (survival) during the period of host absence is the main cause for this difference in selection direction. Moreover, the period of host absence seems to be the key determinant of the pathogens transmission rate. Comparing plant patho-systems with contrasting biological features suggests that airborne plant pathogen respond differently to longer periods of host absence than soil-borne plant pathogens

Mutation Accumulation May Be a Minor Force in Shaping Life History Traits

Is senescence the adaptive result of tradeoffs between younger and older ages or the nonadaptive burden of deleterious mutations that act at older ages? To shed new light on this unresolved question we combine adaptive and nonadaptive processes in a single model. Our model uses Penna's bit-strings to capture different age-specific mutational patterns. Each pattern represents a genotype and for each genotype we find the life history strategy that maximizes fitness. Genotypes compete with each other and are subject to selection and to new mutations over generations until equilibrium in gene-frequencies is reached. The mutation-selection equilibrium provides information about mutational load and the differential effects of mutations on a life history trait - the optimal age at maturity. We find that mutations accumulate only at ages with negligible impact on fitness and that mutation accumulation has very little effect on the optimal age at maturity. These results suggest that life histories are largely determined by adaptive processes. The non-adaptive process of mutation accumulation seems to be unimportant at evolutionarily relevant ages

Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.

BACKGROUND: The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. METHODS: We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. RESULTS: We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison

Parasympathetic nervous system dysfunction, as identified by pupil light reflex, and its possible connection to hearing impairment

Context Although the pupil light reflex has been widely used as a clinical diagnostic tool for autonomic nervous system dysfunction, there is no systematic review available to summarize the evidence that the pupil light reflex is a sensitive method to detect parasympathetic dysfunction. Meanwhile, the relationship between parasympathetic functioning and hearing impairment is relatively unknown. Objectives To 1) review the evidence for the pupil light reflex being a sensitive method to evaluate parasympathetic dysfunction, 2) review the evidence relating hearing impairment and parasympathetic activity and 3) seek evidence of possible connections between hearing impairment and the pupil light reflex. Methods Literature searches were performed in five electronic databases. All selected articles were categorized into three sections: pupil light reflex and parasympathetic dysfunction, hearing impairment and parasympathetic activity, pupil light reflex and hearing impairment. Results Thirty-eight articles were included in this review. Among them, 36 articles addressed the pupil light reflex and parasympathetic dysfunction. We summarized the information in these data according to different types of parasympathetic-related diseases. Most of the studies showed a difference on at least one pupil light reflex parameter between patients and healthy controls. Two articles discussed the relationship between hearing impairment and parasympathetic activity. Both studies reported a reduced parasympathetic activity in the hearing impaired groups. The searches identified no results for pupil light reflex and hearing impairment. Discussion and Conclusions As the first systematic review of the evidence, our findings suggest that the pupil light reflex is a sensitive tool to assess the presence of parasympathetic dysfunction. Maximum constriction velocity and relative constriction amplitude appear to be the most sensitive parameters. There are only two studies investigating the relationship between parasympathetic activity and hearing impairment, hence further research is needed. The pupil light reflex could be a candidate measurement tool to achieve this goal

Osteopontin Impairs Host Defense during Established Gram-Negative Sepsis Caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei (Melioidosis)

Melioidosis is a severe tropical disease caused by infection with the bacterium Burkholderia (B.) pseudomallei. In northeast Thailand infection with this bacterium is the major cause of community-acquired septicemia with a mortality rate up to 40%. Extending the knowledge on the mechanisms of host defense against B. pseudomallei infection would be helpful to improve treatment of this severe illness. Osteopontin (OPN) is a cytokine that is involved in several immune responses that occur during bacterial infection. In this study, we investigated levels of OPN in patients with melioidosis, and studied the function of OPN during experimental melioidosis in mice. We found that OPN concentrations were elevated in patients with severe melioidosis, and that high OPN concentrations are associated with poor outcome in patients with melioidosis. In experimental melioidosis in mice plasma and lung OPN levels were also increased. Moreover, mice with melioidosis that were deficient for OPN demonstrated reduced bacterial numbers in their lungs, diminished pulmonary tissue injury, and decreased neutrophil infiltration into the lungs during established melioidosis. Moreover, these mice displayed a delayed mortality as compared to control mice. In conclusion, sustained production of OPN impairs host defense during melioidosis

Cost-Effectiveness of Adolescent Pertussis Vaccination for The Netherlands: Using an Individual-Based Dynamic Model

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread immunization programs, a clear increase in pertussis incidence is apparent in many developed countries during the last decades. Consequently, additional immunization strategies are considered to reduce the burden of disease. The aim of this study is to design an individual-based stochastic dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population in order to predict the epidemiologic and economic consequences of the implementation of universal booster vaccination programs. Using this framework, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of universal adolescent pertussis booster vaccination at the age of 12 years in the Netherlands. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We designed a discrete event simulation (DES) model to predict the epidemiological and economic consequences of implementing universal adolescent booster vaccination. We used national age-specific notification data over the period 1996-2000--corrected for underreporting--to calibrate the model assuming a steady state situation. Subsequently, booster vaccination was introduced. Input parameters of the model were derived from literature, national data sources (e.g. costing data, incidence and hospitalization data) and expert opinions. As there is no consensus on the duration of immunity acquired by natural infection, we considered two scenarios for this duration of protection (i.e. 8 and 15 years). In both scenarios, total pertussis incidence decreased as a result of adolescent vaccination. From a societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness was estimated at €4418/QALY (range: 3205-6364 € per QALY) and €6371/QALY (range: 4139-9549 € per QALY) for the 8- and 15-year protection scenarios, respectively. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the outcomes are most sensitive to the quality of life weights used for pertussis disease. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To our knowledge we designed the first individual-based dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population. This study indicates that adolescent pertussis vaccination is likely to be a cost-effective intervention for The Netherlands. The model is suited to investigate further pertussis booster vaccination strategies

A new MRI rating scale for progressive supranuclear palsy and multiple system atrophy: validity and reliability

AIM To evaluate a standardised MRI acquisition protocol and a new image rating scale for disease severity in patients with progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) and multiple systems atrophy (MSA) in a large multicentre study. METHODS The MRI protocol consisted of two-dimensional sagittal and axial T1, axial PD, and axial and coronal T2 weighted acquisitions. The 32 item ordinal scale evaluated abnormalities within the basal ganglia and posterior fossa, blind to diagnosis. Among 760 patients in the study population (PSP = 362, MSA = 398), 627 had per protocol images (PSP = 297, MSA = 330). Intra-rater (n = 60) and inter-rater (n = 555) reliability were assessed through Cohen's statistic, and scale structure through principal component analysis (PCA) (n = 441). Internal consistency and reliability were checked. Discriminant and predictive validity of extracted factors and total scores were tested for disease severity as per clinical diagnosis. RESULTS Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability were acceptable for 25 (78%) of the items scored (≥ 0.41). PCA revealed four meaningful clusters of covarying parameters (factor (F) F1: brainstem and cerebellum; F2: midbrain; F3: putamen; F4: other basal ganglia) with good to excellent internal consistency (Cronbach α 0.75-0.93) and moderate to excellent reliability (intraclass coefficient: F1: 0.92; F2: 0.79; F3: 0.71; F4: 0.49). The total score significantly discriminated for disease severity or diagnosis; factorial scores differentially discriminated for disease severity according to diagnosis (PSP: F1-F2; MSA: F2-F3). The total score was significantly related to survival in PSP (p<0.0007) or MSA (p<0.0005), indicating good predictive validity. CONCLUSIONS The scale is suitable for use in the context of multicentre studies and can reliably and consistently measure MRI abnormalities in PSP and MSA. Clinical Trial Registration Number The study protocol was filed in the open clinical trial registry (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov) with ID No NCT00211224