Overview of the Situation on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5 in Russia in 2016–2017

In 2016–2017, several outbreaks among wild and domestic birds caused by highly pathogenic influenza virus were recorded in the territory of the Russian Federation. After isolation of the highly pathogenic influenza A (H5N8) virus in the territory of the Republic of Tyva in May 2016, the virus was introduced into the west by wild birds, where it caused a massive epizootic. The death of agricultural poultry was noted in several regions of the European part of Russia and epizootics continued until the end of 2017. This paper presents the data on circulation of highly pathogenic influenza virus over the past two years. The current status regarding H5 influenza in the territory of the Russian Federation is also considered, where for the first time since 2005 a large-scale epizooty caused by the influenza virus subtype A (H5N8) was recorded. It is shown that the territory of Russia plays an important geographical role in the spread of influenza virus by wild birds from Southeast Asia to Europe and North America, and the research also suggests the possible continuation of circulation of highly pathogenic viruses in the territory of Russia

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs

Northern Eurasia, the largest landmass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ~20% of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life, as well as its interactions with the environment, may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation, the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously changing climate, environmental, and societal systems. More recently, the NEESPI research focus has been moving toward integrative studies, including the development of modeling capabilities to project the future state of climate, environment, and societies in the NEESPI domain. This effort will require a high level of integration of observation programs, process studies, and modeling across disciplines

Simulations of column-averaged CO_2 and CH_4 using the NIES TM with a hybrid sigma-isentropic (σ-θ) vertical coordinate

We have developed an improved version of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) three-dimensional chemical transport model (TM) designed for accurate tracer transport simulations in the stratosphere, using a hybrid sigma-isentropic (σ-θ) vertical coordinate that employs both terrain-following and isentropic parts switched smoothly around the tropopause. The air-ascending rate was derived from the effective heating rate and was used to simulate vertical motion in the isentropic part of the grid (above level 350 K), which was adjusted to fit to the observed age of the air in the stratosphere. Multi-annual simulations were conducted using the NIES TM to evaluate vertical profiles and dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of CO_2 and CH_4. Comparisons with balloon-borne observations over Sanriku (Japan) in 2000–2007 revealed that the tracer transport simulations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are performed with accuracies of ~5% for CH_4 and SF_6, and ~1% for CO_2 compared with the observed volume-mixing ratios. The simulated column-averaged dry air mole fractions of atmospheric carbon dioxide (XCO_2) and methane (XCH_4) were evaluated against daily ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) observations measured at twelve sites of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) (Bialystok, Bremen, Darwin, Garmisch, Izaña, Lamont, Lauder, Orleans, Park Falls, Sodankylä, Tsukuba, and Wollongong) between January 2009 and January 2011. The comparison shows the model's ability to reproduce the site-dependent seasonal cycles as observed by TCCON, with correlation coefficients typically on the order 0.8–0.9 and 0.4–0.8 for XCO_2 and XCH_4, respectively, and mean model biases of ±0.2% and ±0.5%, excluding Sodankylä, where strong biases are found. The ability of the model to capture the tracer total column mole fractions is strongly dependent on the model's ability to reproduce seasonal variations in tracer concentrations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). We found a marked difference in the model's ability to reproduce near-surface concentrations at sites located some distance from multiple emission sources and where high emissions play a notable role in the tracer's budget. Comparisons with aircraft observations over Surgut (West Siberia), in an area with high emissions of methane from wetlands, show contrasting model performance in the PBL and in the free troposphere. Thus, the PBL is another critical region for simulating the tracer total column mole fractions

Overview of the Epidemiological Situation on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus in Russia in 2018

Analyzed was modern epidemiological situation on highly pathogenic avian flu in 2018. Prognosis for possible further distribution of viruses in the territory of Russia was made. In 2018, the situation on highly pathogenic avian flu in Russia was challenging. This was due to the spread of the viruses clade 2.3.4.4, which caused multiple outbreaks among wild birds and poultry in European part of Russia. In addition, A/H5N6 avian influenza virus circulation was for the first time detected in the Saratov Region during routine avian influenza virus surveillance. In May, 2018 two different lineages of avian influenza A/H9N2 were isolated during the outbreaks that occurred at several poultry plants in Primorsk Territory and Amur Region of Russia. Subsequently, that virus subtype continued spreading in Russia, which was recorded by detection of the A/H9N2 influenza virus in wild birds in the Khabarovsk and Tomsk Regions of Russia. Thus, it is shown yet again that the territory of Russia plays an  important geographical role in the spread of avian influenza viruses

A process-based model of methane consumption by upland soils

This study combines a literature survey and field observation data in an ad initio attempt to construct a process-based model of methane sink in upland soils including both the biological and physical aspects of the process. Comparison is drawn between the predicted sink rates and chamber measurements in several forest and grassland sites in the southern part of West Siberia. CH4 flux, total respiration, air and soil temperature, soil moisture, pH, organic content, bulk density and solid phase density were measured during a field campaign in summer 2014. Two datasets from literature were also used for model validation. The modeled sink rates were found to be in relatively good correspondence with the values obtained in the field. Introduction of the rhizospheric methanotrophy significantly improves the match between the model and the observations. The Q10 values of methane sink observed in the field were 1.2-1.4, which is in good agreement with the experimental results from the other studies. Based on modeling results, we also conclude that soil oxygen concentration is not a limiting factor for methane sink in upland forest and grassland ecosystems.Peer reviewe

TransCom model simulations of CH₄ and related species: linking transport, surface flux and chemical loss with CH₄ variability in the troposphere and lower stratosphere

A chemistry-transport model (CTM) intercomparison experiment (TransCom-CH₄) has been designed to investigate the roles of surface emissions, transport and chemical loss in simulating the global methane distribution. Model simulations were conducted using twelve models and four model variants and results were archived for the period of 1990–2007. All but one model transports were driven by reanalysis products from 3 different meteorological agencies. The transport and removal of CH₄ in six different emission scenarios were simulated, with net global emissions of 513 ± 9 and 514 ± 14 Tg CH₄ yr[superscript −1] for the 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Additionally, sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) was simulated to check the interhemispheric transport, radon ([supercript 222]Rn) to check the subgrid scale transport, and methyl chloroform (CH₃CCl₃) to check the chemical removal by the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH). The results are compared to monthly or annual mean time series of CH₄, SF₆ and CH₃CCl₃ measurements from 8 selected background sites, and to satellite observations of CH₄ in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Most models adequately capture the vertical gradients in the stratosphere, the average long-term trends, seasonal cycles, interannual variations (IAVs) and interhemispheric (IH) gradients at the surface sites for SF₆, CH₃CCl₃ and CH₄. The vertical gradients of all tracers between the surface and the upper troposphere are consistent within the models, revealing vertical transport differences between models. An average IH exchange time of 1.39 ± 0.18 yr is derived from SF₆ time series. Sensitivity simulations suggest that the estimated trends in exchange time, over the period of 1996–2007, are caused by a change of SF₆ emissions towards the tropics. Using six sets of emission scenarios, we show that the decadal average CH₄ growth rate likely reached equilibrium in the early 2000s due to the flattening of anthropogenic emission growth since the late 1990s. Up to 60% of the IAVs in the observed CH₄ concentrations can be explained by accounting for the IAVs in emissions, from biomass burning and wetlands, as well as meteorology in the forward models. The modeled CH₄ budget is shown to depend strongly on the troposphere-stratosphere exchange rate and thus on the model's vertical grid structure and circulation in the lower stratosphere. The 15-model median CH₄ and CH₃CCl₃ atmospheric lifetimes are estimated to be 9.99 ± 0.08 and 4.61 ± 0.13 yr, respectively, with little IAV due to transport and temperature.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA-AGAGE Grant NNX11AF17G

Off-line algorithm for calculation of vertical tracer transport in the troposphere due to deep convection

A modified cumulus convection parametrisation scheme is presented. This scheme computes the mass of air transported upward in a cumulus cell using conservation of moisture and a detailed distribution of convective precipitation provided by a reanalysis dataset. The representation of vertical transport within the scheme includes entrainment and detrainment processes in convective updrafts and downdrafts. Output from the proposed parametrisation scheme is employed in the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) global chemical transport model driven by JRA-25/JCDAS reanalysis. The simulated convective precipitation rate and mass fluxes are compared with observations and reanalysis data. A simulation of the short-lived tracer [superscript 222]Rn is used to further evaluate the performance of the cumulus convection scheme. Simulated distributions of [superscript 222]Rn are evaluated against observations at the surface and in the free troposphere, and compared with output from models that participated in the TransCom-CH4 Transport Model Intercomparison. From this comparison, we demonstrate that the proposed convective scheme in general is consistent with observed and modeled results

Variability in methane emissions from West Siberia's shallow boreal lakes on a regional scale and its environmental controls

Small lakes represent an important source of atmospheric CH4 from northern wetlands. However, spatiotemporal variations in flux magnitudes and the lack of knowledge about their main environmental controls contribute large uncertainty into the global CH4 budget. In this study, we measured methane fluxes from small lakes using chambers and bubble traps. Field investigations were carried out in July–August 2014 within the West Siberian middle and southern taiga zones. The average and median of measured methane chamber fluxes were 0.32 and 0.30 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 for middle taiga lakes and 8.6 and 4.1 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 for southern taiga lakes, respectively. Pronounced flux variability was found during measurements on individual lakes, between individual lakes and between zones. To analyze these differences and the influences of environmental controls, we developed a new dynamic process-based model. It shows good performance with emission rates from the southern taiga lakes and poor performance for individual lakes in the middle taiga region. The model shows that, in addition to wellknown controls such as temperature, pH and lake depth, there are significant variations in the maximal methane production potential between these climatic zones. In addition, the model shows that variations in gas-filled pore space in lake sediments are capable of controlling the total methane emissions from individual lakes. The CH4 emissions exhibited distinct zonal differences not only in absolute values but also in their probability density functions: the middle taiga lake fluxes were best described by a lognormal distribution while the southern taiga lakes followed a power-law distribution. The latter suggests applicability of self-organized criticality theory for methane emissions from the southern taiga zone, which could help to explain the strong variability within individual lakes

Simulations of column-averaged CO2 and CH4 using the NIES TM with a hybrid sigma-isentropic (σ-θ) vertical coordinate

We have developed an improved version of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) threedimensional chemical transport model (TM) designed for accurate tracer transport simulations in the stratosphere, using a hybrid sigma-isentropic (σ-θ) vertical coordinate that employs both terrain-following and isentropic parts switched smoothly around the tropopause. The air-ascending rate was derived from the effective heating rate and was used to simulate vertical motion in the isentropic part of the grid (above level 350 K), which was adjusted to fit to the observed age of the air in the stratosphere. Multi-annual simulations were conducted using the NIES TM to evaluate vertical profiles and dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 and CH4. Comparisons with balloon-borne observations over Sanriku (Japan) in 2000–2007 revealed that the tracer transport simulations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are performed with accuracies of ~5% for CH4 and SF6, and ~1% for CO2 compared with the observed volume-mixing ratios. The simulated columnaveraged dry air mole fractions of atmospheric carbon dioxide (XCO2) and methane (XCH4) were evaluated against daily ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) observations measured at twelve sites of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) (Bialystok, Bremen, Darwin, Garmisch, Iza˜na, Lamont, Lauder, Orleans, Park Falls, Sodankyl¨a, Tsukuba, and Wollongong) between January 2009 and January 2011. The comparison shows the model’s ability to reproduce the site-dependent seasonal cycles as observed by TCCON, with correlation coefficients typically on the order 0.8–0.9 and 0.4–0.8 for XCO2 and XCH4, respectively, and mean model biases of ±0.2% and ±0.5 %, excluding Sodankyl¨a, where strong biases are found. The ability of the model to capture the tracer total column mole fractions is strongly dependent on the model’s ability to reproduce seasonal variations in tracer concentrations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). We found a marked difference in the model’s ability to reproduce nearsurface concentrations at sites located some distance from multiple emission sources and where high emissions play a notable role in the tracer’s budget. Comparisons with aircraft observations over Surgut (West Siberia), in an area with high emissions of methane from wetlands, show contrasting model performance in the PBL and in the free troposphere. Thus, the PBL is another critical region for simulating the tracer total column mole fractions