Rank Statistics in Biological Evolution

We present a statistical analysis of biological evolution processes. Specifically, we study the stochastic replication-mutation-death model where the population of a species may grow or shrink by birth or death, respectively, and additionally, mutations lead to the creation of new species. We rank the various species by the chronological order by which they originate. The average population N_k of the kth species decays algebraically with rank, N_k ~ M^{mu} k^{-mu}, where M is the average total population. The characteristic exponent mu=(alpha-gamma)/(alpha+beta-gamma)$ depends on alpha, beta, and gamma, the replication, mutation, and death rates. Furthermore, the average population P_k of all descendants of the kth species has a universal algebraic behavior, P_k ~ M/k.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

High Temperature Matter and Gamma Ray Spectra from Microscopic Black Holes

The relativistic viscous fluid equations describing the outflow of high temperature matter created via Hawking radiation from microscopic black holes are solved numerically for a realistic equation of state. We focus on black holes with initial temperatures greater than 100 GeV and lifetimes less than 6 days. The spectra of direct photons and photons from $\pi^0$ decay are calculated for energies greater than 1 GeV. We calculate the diffuse gamma ray spectrum from black holes distributed in our galactic halo. However, the most promising route for their observation is to search for point sources emitting gamma rays of ever-increasing energy.Comment: 33 pages, 13 figures, to be submitted to PR

One foot out the door:Stay/leave ambivalence predicts day-to-day fluctuations in commitment and intentions to end the relationship

Why do some people maintain stable feelings of commitment toward their partners, whereas others’ feelings wax and wane from day to day? The current paper draws insight from decision conflict research suggesting that individuals torn between decision options are particularly susceptible to attitude change. In three samples, we validated a stay/leave ambivalence scale to capture internal conflict about whether to remain in versus exit a relationship. In two dyadic daily experience studies, individuals who felt more ambivalent about their relationships experienced greater daily fluctuation in commitment and breakup contemplation compared to less ambivalent individuals. Ambivalent individuals’ relationship intentions were also more strongly tied to their daily experiences, such that they felt more motivated to stay on days with greater relationship positivity, and more motivated to leave on days with greater relationship negativity. We discuss implications of these results for ambivalent individuals, their partners, and our understanding of stay/leave decision processes

Cardiac afferent activity modulates the expression of racial stereotypes

Negative racial stereotypes tend to associate Black people with threat. This often leads to the misidentification of harmless objects as weapons held by a Black individual. Yet, little is known about how bodily states impact the expression of racial stereotyping. By tapping into the phasic activation of arterial baroreceptors, known to be associated with changes in the neural processing of fearful stimuli, we show activation of race-threat stereotypes synchronized with the cardiovascular cycle. Across two established tasks, stimuli depicting Black or White individuals were presented to coincide with either the cardiac systole or diastole. Results show increased race-driven misidentification of weapons during systole, when baroreceptor afferent firing is maximal, relative to diastole. Importantly, a third study examining the positive Black-athletic stereotypical association fails to demonstrate similar modulations by cardiac cycle. We identify a body–brain interaction wherein interoceptive cues can modulate threat appraisal and racially biased behaviour in context-dependent ways

The emergence of inequality in social groups: network structure and institutions affect the distribution of earnings in cooperation games

From small communities to entire nations and society at large, inequality in wealth, social status, and power is one of the most pervasive and tenacious features of the social world. What causes inequality to emerge and persist? In this study, we investigate how the structure and rules of our interactions can increase inequality in social groups. Specifically, we look into the effects of four structural conditions—network structure, network fluidity, reputation tracking, and punishment institutions—on the distribution of earnings in network cooperation games. We analyze 33 experiments comprising 96 experimental conditions altogether. We find that there is more inequality in clustered networks compared to random networks, in fixed networks compared to randomly rewired and strategically updated networks, and in groups with punishment institutions compared to groups without. Secondary analyses suggest that the reasons inequality emerges under these conditions may have to do with the fact that fixed networks allow exploitation of the poor by the wealthy and clustered networks foster segregation between the poor and the wealthy, while the burden of costly punishment falls onto the poor, leaving them poorer. Surprisingly, we do not find evidence that inequality is affected by reputation in a systematic way but this could be because reputation needs to play out in a particular network environment in order to have an effect. Overall, our findings suggest possible strategies and interventions to decrease inequality and mitigate its negative impact, particularly in the context of mid- and large-sized organizations and online communities

Using Cognitive Pre-Testing Methods in the Development of a New Evidenced-Based Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instrument

Background: Variation in development methods of Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instruments has led to inconsistent inclusion of risk factors and concerns about content validity. A new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Instrument, the Pressure Ulcer Risk Primary Or Secondary Evaluation Tool - PURPOSE-T was developed as part of a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) funded Pressure Ulcer Research Programme (PURPOSE: RP-PG-0407-10056). This paper reports the pre-test phase to assess and improve PURPOSE-T acceptability, usability and confirm content validity. Methods: A descriptive study incorporating cognitive pre-testing methods and integration of service user views was undertaken over 3 cycles comprising PURPOSE-T training, a focus group and one-to-one think-aloud interviews. Clinical nurses from 2 acute and 2 community NHS Trusts, were grouped according to job role. Focus group participants used 3 vignettes to complete PURPOSE-T assessments and then participated in the focus group. Think-aloud participants were interviewed during their completion of PURPOSE-T. After each pre-test cycle analysis was undertaken and adjustment/improvements made to PURPOSE-T in an iterative process. This incorporated the use of descriptive statistics for data completeness and decision rule compliance and directed content analysis for interview and focus group data. Data were collected April 2012-June 2012. Results: Thirty-four nurses participated in 3 pre-test cycles. Data from 3 focus groups, 12 think-aloud interviews incorporating 101 PURPOSE-T assessments led to changes to improve instrument content and design, flow and format, decision support and item-specific wording. Acceptability and usability were demonstrated by improved data completion and appropriate risk pathway allocation. The pre-test also confirmed content validity with clinical nurses. Conclusions: The pre-test was an important step in the development of the preliminary PURPOSE-T and the methods used may have wider instrument development application. PURPOSE-T proposes a new approach to pressure ulcer risk assessment, incorporating a screening stage, the inclusion of skin status to distinguish between those who require primary prevention and those who require secondary prevention/treatment and the use of colour to support pathway allocation and decision making. Further clinical evaluation is planned to assess the reliability and validity of PURPOSE-T and it’s impact on care processes and patient outcomes

Characterization of Nonjunctional Hemichannels in Caterpillar Cells

Recent studies have demonstrated that hemichannels, which form gap junctions when paired from apposing cells, may serve additional roles when unpaired including cell adhesion and paracrine communication. Hemichannels in mammals are formed by connexins or pannexins, while in insects they are formed by pannexin homologues termed innexins. The formation of functional gap junctions by insect innexins has been established, although their ability to form functional nonjunctional hemichannels has not been reported. Here the characteristics of nonjunctional hemichannels were examined in three lepidopteran cell types, two cell lines (High Five and Sf9) and explanted hemocytes from Heliothis virescens (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Selective fluorescent dye uptake by hemichannels was observed in a significant minority of cells, using fluorescence microscopy and flow cytometry. Carbenoxelone, an inhibitor of mammalian junctions, disrupted dye uptake, while flufenamic acid and mefloquine did not. The presence of Ca2+ and Mg2+ in the media increased hemichannel activity. Additionally, lipopolysaccharide, a stimulator of immune activity in lepidopterans, decreased dye uptake. These results demonstrate for the first time the activity of nonjunctional hemichannels in insect cells, as well as pharmacological tools to manipulate them. These results will facilitate the further examination of the role of innexins and nonjunctional hemichannels in insect cell biology, including paracrine signaling, and comparative studies of mammalian pannexins and insect innexins

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Examining the reproducibility of meta-analyses in psychology:A preliminary report

Meta-analyses are an important tool to evaluate the literature. It is essential that meta-analyses can easily be reproduced to allow researchers to evaluate the impact of subjective choices on meta-analytic effect sizes, but also to update meta-analyses as new data comes in, or as novel statistical techniques (for example to correct for publication bias) are developed. Research in medicine has revealed meta-analyses often cannot be reproduced. In this project, we examined the reproducibility of meta-analyses in psychology by reproducing twenty published meta-analyses. Reproducing published meta-analyses was surprisingly difficult. 96% of meta-analyses published in 2013-2014 did not adhere to reporting guidelines. A third of these meta-analyses did not contain a table specifying all individual effect sizes. Five of the 20 randomly selected meta-analyses we attempted to reproduce could not be reproduced at all due to lack of access to raw data, no details about the effect sizes extracted from each study, or a lack of information about how effect sizes were coded. In the remaining meta-analyses, differences between the reported and reproduced effect size or sample size were common. We discuss a range of possible improvements, such as more clearly indicating which data were used to calculate an effect size, specifying all individual effect sizes, adding detailed information about equations that are used, and how multiple effect size estimates from the same study are combined, but also sharing raw data retrieved from original authors, or unpublished research reports. This project clearly illustrates there is a lot of room for improvement when it comes to the transparency and reproducibility of published meta-analyses

WHS Guidelines for the Treatment of Pressure Ulcers: 2023 Update

The major populations at risk for developing pressure ulcers are older adults who have multiple risk factors that increase their vulnerability, people who are critically ill and those with spinal cord injury/disease. The reported prevalence of pressure ulcers in the United States is 2.5 million. However, this estimate is derived from acute care facilities and does not include people who are living at home or in nursing facilities. Despite the implementation of hospital and facility-based preventive measures, the incidence of pressure ulcers has not decreased in decades. In addition to the burden of pain, infection and death, it is estimated that hospital-acquired pressure ulcers cost the health system $26.8 billion annually with over 50% of the cost attributed to treating Stage 3 and 4 pressure injuries. Thus, it is critical to examine the literature and develop guidelines that will improve the outcomes of this complex and costly condition. This guideline update is a compendium of the best available evidence for the treatment of Pressure Ulcers published since the last update in 2015 and includes a new section based on changing demographics entitled ‘Palliative wound care for seriously ill patients with pressure ulcers’. The overall goal of the Wound Healing Society Guideline project is to present clear, concise and commercial free guidelines that clinicians can use to guide care, that researchers can use to develop studies that will improve treatment and that both clinicians and researchers can use to understand the gaps in our knowledge base