Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Ristola M. on työryhmien DAD Study Grp ; Royal Free Hosp Clin Cohort ; INSIGHT Study Grp ; SMART Study Grp ; ESPRIT Study Grp jäsen.Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with >= 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1: 393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score = 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.Peer reviewe

Factors associated with presenting late or with advanced HIV disease in the Netherlands, 1996 2014: Results from a national observational cohort

Objectives: Early testing for HIV and entry into care are crucial to optimise treatment outcomes of HIV-infected patients and to prevent spread of HIV. We examined risk factors for presentation with late or advanced disease in HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands. Methods: HIV-infected patients registered in care between January 1996 and June 2014 were selected from the ATHENA national observational HIV cohort. Risk factors for late presentation and advanced disease were analysed by multivariable logistic regression. Furthermore, geographical differences and time trends were examined. Results: Of 20 965 patients, 53% presented with latestage HIV infection, and 35% had advanced disease. Late presentation decreased from 62% (1996) to 42% (2013), while advanced disease decreased from 46% to 26%. Late presentation only declined significantly among men having sex with men (MSM; p <0.001), but not among heterosexual males (p=0.08) and females (p=0.73). Factors associated with late presentation were: heterosexual male (adjusted OR (aOR), 1.59; 95% CI 1.44 to 1.75 vs MSM), injecting drug use (2.00; CI 1.69 to 2.38), age .50 years (1.46; CI 1.33 to 1.60 vs 30.49 years), region of origin (South-East Asia 2.14; 1.80 to 2.54, sub-Saharan Africa 2.11; 1.88 to 2.36, Surinam 1.59; 1.37 to 1.84, Caribbean 1.31; 1.13 to 1.53, Latin America 1.23; 1.04 to 1.46 vs the Netherlands), and location of HIV diagnosis (hospital 3.27; 2.94 to 3.63, general practitioner 1.66; 1.50 to 1.83, antenatal screening 1.76; 1.38 to 2.34 vs sexually transmitted infection clinic). No association was found for socioeconomic status or level of urbanisation. Compared with Amsterdam, 2 regions had higher adjusted odds and 2 regions had lower odds of late presentation. Results were highly similar for advanced disease. Conclusions: Although the overall rate of late presentation is declining in the Netherlands, targeted programmes to reduce late HIV diagnoses remain needed for all risk groups, but should be prioritised for heterosexual males, migrant populations, people aged ≥50 years and certain regions in the Netherlands

External validation of the PAGE-B score for HCC risk prediction in people living with HIV/HBV coinfection

Background & Aims: HBV coinfection is common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While risk prediction tools for HCC have been validated in patients with HBV monoinfection, they have not been evaluated in PLWH. Thus, we performed an external validation of PAGE-B in people with HIV/HBV coinfection. Methods: We included data on PLWH from four European cohorts who were positive for HBsAg and did not have HCC before starting tenofovir. We estimated the predictive performance of PAGE-B for HCC occurrence over 15 years in patients receiving tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. Model discrimination was assessed after multiple imputation using Cox regression with the prognostic index as a covariate, and by calculating Harrell's c-index. Calibration was assessed by comparing our cumulative incidence with the PAGE-B derivation study using Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: In total, 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection on tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy were included. PAGE-B was <10 in 26.5%, 10–17 in 57.7%, and ≥18 in 15.7% of patients. Within a median follow-up of 9.6 years, HCC occurred in 68 individuals (2.58/1,000 patient-years, 95% CI 2.03–3.27). The regression slope of the prognostic index for developing HCC within 15 years was 0.93 (95% CI 0.61–1.25), and the pooled c-index was 0.77 (range 0.73–0.80), both indicating good model discrimination. The cumulative incidence of HCC was lower in our study compared to the derivation study. A PAGE-B cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. Restricting efforts to individuals with a PAGE-B of ≥10 would spare unnecessary HCC screening in 27% of individuals. Conclusions: For individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection, PAGE-B is a valid tool to determine the need for HCC screening. Impact and implications: Chronic HBV infection is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among people living with HIV. Valid risk prediction may enable better targeting of HCC screening efforts to high-risk individuals. We aimed to validate PAGE-B, a risk prediction tool that is based on age, sex, and platelets, in 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection who received tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. In the present study, PAGE-B showed good discrimination, adequate calibration, and a cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. These results indicate that PAGE-B is a simple and valid risk prediction tool to determine the need for HCC screening among people living with HIV and HBV

Predictive Performance of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Algorithms in People Living With HIV

Immunogenetics and cellular immunology of bacterial infectious disease

Risk for non-AIDS-defining and AIDS-defining cancer of early versus delayed initiation of antiretroviral therapy: A multinational prospective cohort study

Background: Immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of CD4 cell count reduces risk for AIDS and non-AIDS-related events in asymptomatic, HIV-positive persons and is the standard of care. However, most HIV-positive persons initiate ART when their CD4 count decreases below 500 × 109 cells/L. Consequences of delayed ART on risk for non-AIDS-defining and AIDS-defining cancer, one of the most common reasons for death in HIV, are unclear. Objective: To estimate the long-term risk difference for cancer with the immediate ART strategy. Design: Multinational prospective cohort study. Setting: The D:A:D (Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs) study, which included HIV-positive persons from Europe, Australia, and the United States. Participants: 8318 HIV-positive persons with at least 1 measurement each of CD4 cell count and viral load while ART-naive (study period, 2006 to 2016). Measurements: The parametric g-formula was used, with adjustment for baseline and time-dependent confounders (CD4 cell count and viral load), to assess the 10-year risk for non-AIDS-defining and AIDS-defining cancer of immediate versus deferred (at CD4 counts &lt; 350 and &lt; 500 × 109 cells/L) ART initiation strategies. Results: During 64 021 person-years of follow-up, 231 cases of non-AIDS-defining cancer and 272 of AIDS-defining cancer occurred among HIV-positive persons with a median age of 36 years (interquartile range, 29 to 43 years). With immediate ART, the 10-year risk for non-AIDS-defining cancer was 2.97% (95% CI, 2.37% to 3.50%) and that for AIDS-defining cancer was 2.50% (CI, 2.37% to 3.38%). Compared with immediate ART initiation, the 10-year absolute risk differences when deferring ART to CD4 counts less than 500 × 109 cells/L and less than 350 × 109 cells/L were 0.12 percentage point (CI, -0.01 to 0.26 percentage point) and 0.29 percentage point (CI, -0.03 to 0.73 percentage point), respectively, for non-AIDS-defining cancer and 0.32 percentage point (CI, 0.21 to 0.44 percentage point) and 1.00 percentage point (CI, 0.67 to 1.44 percentage points), respectively, for AIDS-defining cancer. Limitation: Potential residual confounding due to observational study design. Conclusion: In this young cohort, effects of immediate ART on 10-year risk for cancer were small, and further supportive data are needed for non-AIDS-defining cancer. Primary Funding Source: Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy Oversight Committee

High treatment uptake in human immunodeficiency virus/ hepatitis C virus-coinfected patients after unrestricted access to direct-acting antivirals in the Netherlands

Background The Netherlands has provided unrestricted access to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) since November 2015. We analyzed the nationwide hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment uptake among patients coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and HCV. Methods Data were obtained from the ATHENA HIV observational cohort in which >98% of HIV-infected patients ever registered since 1998 are included. Patients were included if they ever had 1 positive HCV RNA result, did not have spontaneous clearance, and were known to still be in care. Treatment uptake and outcome were assessed. When patients were treated more than once, data were included from only the most recent treatment episode. Data were updated until February 2017. In addition, each treatment center was queried in April 2017 for a data update on DAA treatment and achieved sustained virological response. Results Of 23574 HIV-infected patients ever linked to care, 1471 HCV-coinfected patients (69% men who have sex with men, 15% persons who [formerly] injected drugs, and 15% with another HIV transmission route) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 87% (1284 of 1471) had ever initiated HCV treatment between 2000 and 2017, 76% (1124 of 1471) had their HCV infection cured; DAA treatment results were pending in 6% (92 of 1471). Among men who have sex with men, 83% (844 of 1022) had their HCV infection cured, and DAA treatment results were pending in 6% (66 of 1022). Overall, 187 patients had never initiated treatment, DAAs had failed in 14, and a pegylated interferon-alfa–based regimen had failed in 54. Conclusions Fifteen months after unrestricted DAA availability the majority of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients in the Netherlands have their HCV infection cured (76%) or are awaiting DAA treatment results (6%). This rapid treatment scale-up may contribute to future HCV elimination among these patients

Progression of liver fibrosis following acute hepatitis C virus infection in HIV-positive MSM

Molecular basis of virus replication, viral pathogenesis and antiviral strategie

A highly virulent variant of HIV-1 circulating in the Netherlands.

We discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log &lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV-CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences-is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence