Supermodeling Improving Predictions with an Ensemble of Interacting Models

The modeling of weather and climate has been a success story. The skill of forecasts continues to improve and model biases continue to decrease. Combining the output of multiple models has further improved forecast skill and reduced biases. But are we exploiting the full capacity of state-of-the-art models in making forecasts and projections? Supermodeling is a recent step forward in the multimodel ensemble approach. Instead of combining model output after the simulations are completed, in a supermodel individual models exchange state information as they run, influencing each other's behavior. By learning the optimal parameters that determine how models influence each other based on past observations, model errors are reduced at an early stage before they propagate into larger scales and affect other regions and variables. The models synchronize on a common solution that through learning remains closer to the observed evolution. Effectively a new dynamical system has been created, a supermodel, that optimally combines the strengths of the constituent models. The supermodel approach has the potential to rapidly improve current state-of-the-art weather forecasts and climate predictions. In this paper we introduce supermodeling, demonstrate its potential in examples of various complexity, and discuss learning strategies. We conclude with a discussion of remaining challenges for a successful application of supermodeling in the context of state-of-the-art models. The supermodeling approach is not limited to the modeling of weather and climate, but can be applied to improve the prediction capabilities of any complex system, for which a set of different models exists

Emergency department spirometric volume and base deficit delineate risk for torso injury in stable patients

BACKGROUND: We sought to determine torso injury rates and sensitivities associated with fluid-positive abdominal ultrasound, metabolic acidosis (increased base deficit and lactate), and impaired pulmonary physiology (decreased spirometric volume and PaO(2)/FiO(2)). METHODS: Level I trauma center prospective pilot and post-pilot study (2000–2001) of stable patients. Increased base deficit was < 0.0 in ethanol-negative and ≤ -3.0 in ethanol-positive patients. Increased lactate was > 2.5 mmol/L in ethanol-negative and ≥ 3.0 mmol/L in ethanol-positive patients. Decreased PaO(2)/FiO(2 )was < 350 and decreased spirometric volume was < 1.8 L. RESULTS: Of 215 patients, 66 (30.7%) had a torso injury (abdominal/pelvic injury n = 35 and/or thoracic injury n = 43). Glasgow Coma Scale score was 14.8 ± 0.5 (13–15). Torso injury rates and sensitivities were: abdominal ultrasound negative and normal base deficit, lactate, PaO(2)/FiO(2), and spirometric volume – 0.0% & 0.0%; normal base deficit and normal spirometric volume – 4.2% & 4.5%; chest/abdominal soft tissue injury – 37.8% & 47.0%; increased lactate – 39.7% & 47.0%; increased base deficit – 41.3% & 75.8%; increased base deficit and/or decreased spirometric volume – 43.8% & 95.5%; decreased PaO(2)/FiO(2 )– 48.9% & 33.3%; positive abdominal ultrasound – 62.5% & 7.6%; decreased spirometric volume – 73.4% & 71.2%; increased base deficit and decreased spirometric volume – 82.9% & 51.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Trauma patients with normal base deficit and spirometric volume are unlikely to have a torso injury. Patients with increased base deficit or lactate, decreased spirometric volume, decreased PaO(2)/FiO(2), or positive FAST have substantial risk for torso injury. Increased base deficit and/or decreased spirometric volume are highly sensitive for torso injury. Base deficit and spirometric volume values are readily available and increase or decrease the suspicion for torso injury

European clinical guidelines for Tourette syndrome and other tic disorders. Part II: pharmacological treatment

To develop a European guideline on pharmacologic treatment of Tourette syndrome (TS) the available literature was thoroughly screened and extensively discussed by a working group of the European Society for the Study of Tourette syndrome (ESSTS). Although there are many more studies on pharmacotherapy of TS than on behavioral treatment options, only a limited number of studies meets rigorous quality criteria. Therefore, we have devised a two-stage approach. First, we present the highest level of evidence by reporting the findings of existing Cochrane reviews in this field. Subsequently, we provide the first comprehensive overview of all reports on pharmacological treatment options for TS through a MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE search for all studies that document the effect of pharmacological treatment of TS and other tic disorders between 1970 and November 2010. We present a summary of the current consensus on pharmacological treatment options for TS in Europe to guide the clinician in daily practice. This summary is, however, rather a status quo of a clinically helpful but merely low evidence guideline, mainly driven by expert experience and opinion, since rigorous experimental studies are scarce

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone

Neural network analysis of anal sphincter repair

PURPOSE: Prediction of success after anterior sphincter repair for incontinence is difficult. Standard multivariate analysis techniques have only 75 to 80 percent accuracy. Artificial intelligence, including artificial neural networks, has been used in the analysis of complex clinical data and has proved to be successful in predicting the outcome of other surgical procedures. Using a neural network algorithm, we have assessed the probability of success after anterior sphincter repair. METHODS: Prospective anorectal physiology data of 72 patients undergoing anterior sphincter repair was collected between 1995 and 1999. Complete data sets of 75 percent of the series were used to train an artificial neural network; the remaining 25 percent were used for data validation. The output was continence grading, ranging from 0 to 4 (worse to continent). RESULTS: The outcome at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively was obtained and assessed. The best correlation between actual data value and artificial neural network value was found at 12 months (r = 0.931; P = 0.0001). Clear correlations also were found at three months (r = 0.898; P = 0.0001) and six months (r = 0.742; P = 0.002). Results of applying a net to details excluding pudendal nerve latency were poor. CONCLUSIONS: Artificial neural networks are more accurate (93 percent correlation) than standard statistics (75 percent) when applied to the prediction of outcome after anterior sphincter repair. This assessment also confirms the usefulness of pudendal latency in the prediction of anterior sphincter repair outcome. The results obtained highlight the obvious usefulness of artificial neural networks, which could now be used in a prospective evaluation for application of the technique

Cardiovascular disease incidence after internal mammary chain irradiation and anthracycline-based chemotherapy for breast cancer

Background Improved breast cancer (BC) survival and evidence showing beneficial effects of internal mammary chain (IMC) irradiation underscore the importance of studying late cardiovascular effects of BC treatment. Methods We assessed cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in 14,645 Dutch BC patients aged <62 years, treated during 1970–2009. Analyses included proportional hazards models and general population comparisons. Results CVD rate-ratio for left-versus-right breast irradiation without IMC was 1.11 (95% CI 0.93–1.32). Compared to right-sided breast irradiation only, IMC irradiation (interquartile range mean heart doses 9–17 Gy) was associated with increases in CVD rate overall, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF) and valvular heart disease (hazard ratios (HRs): 1.6–2.4). IHD risk remained increased until at least 20 years after treatment. Anthracycline-based chemotherapy was associated with an increased HF rate (HR = 4.18, 95% CI 3.07–5.69), emerging <5 years and remaining increased at least 10–15 years after treatment. IMC irradiation combined with anthracycline-based chemotherapy was associated with substantially increased HF rate (HR = 9.23 95% CI 6.01–14.18), compared to neither IMC irradiation nor anthracycline-based chemotherapy. Conclusions Women treated with anthracycline-based chemotherapy and IMC irradiation (in an older era) with considerable mean heart dose exposure have substantially increased incidence of several CVDs. Screening may be appropriate for some BC patient groups

Cardiovascular disease incidence after internal mammary chain irradiation and anthracycline-based chemotherapy for breast cancer

Background Improved breast cancer (BC) survival and evidence showing beneficial effects of internal mammary chain (IMC) irradiation underscore the importance of studying late cardiovascular effects of BC treatment. Methods We assessed cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in 14,645 Dutch BC patients aged &lt;62 years, treated during 1970–2009. Analyses included proportional hazards models and general population comparisons. Results CVD rate-ratio for left-versus-right breast irradiation without IMC was 1.11 (95% CI 0.93–1.32). Compared to right-sided breast irradiation only, IMC irradiation (interquartile range mean heart doses 9–17 Gy) was associated with increases in CVD rate overall, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF) and valvular heart disease (hazard ratios (HRs): 1.6–2.4). IHD risk remained increased until at least 20 years after treatment. Anthracycline-based chemotherapy was associated with an increased HF rate (HR = 4.18, 95% CI 3.07–5.69), emerging &lt;5 years and remaining increased at least 10–15 years after treatment. IMC irradiation combined with anthracycline-based chemotherapy was associated with substantially increased HF rate (HR = 9.23 95% CI 6.01–14.18), compared to neither IMC irradiation nor anthracycline-based chemotherapy. Conclusions Women treated with anthracycline-based chemotherapy and IMC irradiation (in an older era) with considerable mean heart dose exposure have substantially increased incidence of several CVDs. Screening may be appropriate for some BC patient groups