Les promesses électorales : mise en œuvre, perceptions et couverture médiatique

Cette thèse est composée de trois articles qui portent sur les promesses électorales au Canada. Dans le premier article, nous illustrons l'importance de tenir compte du temps dans l'étude de la tenue des promesses électorales. Nous ajoutons ainsi un élément important aux discussions académiques en cours sur les facteurs qui influencent la mise en oeuvre des promesses électorales. Contrairement aux études précédentes, qui supposent que la réalisation de promesses est un processus qui se produit de façon uniforme au fil du temps, nous analysons la mise en oeuvre des promesses en utilisant une approche BTSCS (Binary Time-Series Cross-Section) qui met en évidence de nouvelles dynamiques. Plus précisément, nous constatons que si le gouvernement ne tient pas ses engagements électoraux dans la première moitié de son mandat, la probabilité que ceux-ci soient tenus diminue drastiquement. L'approche de modélisation discrète du temps (discrete time model) nous permet également d'étudier de plus près les relations existant entre le solde budgétaire et la réalisation des promesses. Notre recherche étend également l'étude de la mise en oeuvre des promesses à un nouveau cas, la province de Québec, pour la période de 1994 à 2014. Enfin, nous effectuons également des analyses similaires sur les données canadiennes couvrant sept gouvernements successifs de 1993 à 2015. Cette étude analyse un total de 1431 promesses électorales codées manuellement. Dans le second article, nous examinons les évaluations que font les citoyens de la tenue des promesses électorales en utilisant les données de l'Étude électorale canadienne de 2015. Nous observons que l'exactitude de ces évaluations augmente en présence de facteurs liés aux connaissances des citoyens, à savoir les connaissances politiques et l'importance relative de chaque promesse. Par ailleurs, nous constatons que les évaluations des citoyens reposent souvent sur des facteurs non fondés sur les faits, tels que leur identité et des croyances a priori, y compris l'identification partisane et la confiance politique. La présence de ces facteurs n'augmente pas la probabilité de répondre correctement. Nous constatons également, à l’aide d’une expérience par sondage divisé, qu’un changement dans la formulation des questions affecte le ton de l’évaluation des promesses, mais pas leur exactitude. Dans le troisième article, nous étudions la couverture des promesses électorales dans les médias. Plus précisément, cet article cherche à savoir si les médias alertent les citoyens lorsqu'une promesse électorale est rompue. Cette étude porte sur les 244 promesses faites par le Parti conservateur, lors des élections canadiennes de 2008 et de 2011. Notre période d’étude s'étend du déclenchement de l'élection de 2008 (07/09/2008) jusqu’à la fin du mandat de 2011 (08/04/2015). Cet article révèle que les médias alertent les citoyens lorsqu'un engagement est rompu. Nous constatons également que le «modèle d'alarme antivol» (Burglar Alarm), issu du domaine de la communication politique, fournit une description adéquate des dynamiques entourant la couverture médiatique des engagements électoraux.This doctoral dissertation is composed of three articles related to electoral pledges in Canada. In the first article, we highlight the importance of accounting for time in the study of pledge fulfillment, effectively adding a significant element to the ongoing academic discussions of the factors that influence the fulfillment of party promises. Unlike previous analyses in which pledge fulfillment is assumed to be a uniform process occurring over time, we analyze party pledge fulfillment using a discrete time approach: doing so highlights yet unobserved dynamics. More precisely, we find that if the government does not enact pledges within the first half of its mandate, the probability of these pledges ever being fulfilled drops drastically. The discrete time modeling approach also allows us to investigate the relationships existing between the budget balance and pledge fulfillment more thoroughly. Our research also extends the study of pledge fulfillment to a new case, the province of Quebec, for the period of 1994–2014 encompassing six governments. Finally, we also conduct similar analyses on Canadian pledge fulfillment data spanning seven successive governments from 1993 to 2015. This study analyzes a total of 1431 manually coded election pledges. In the second article, we examine citizens’ evaluations of specific campaign pledge fulfillment using data from the 2015 Canadian Election Study. We find that the accuracy of these evaluations increases in the presence of factors related to citizens’ informed judgments, namely political knowledge and the relative importance of each pledge. On the other hand, we find that citizens’ evaluations often turn on factors not based on informed judgments but rather on group identities and a priori beliefs, including partisan identification and political trust. The presence of these factors does not to increase the likelihood of accuracy of pledge evaluations. We also find, through a split ballot experiment, that even though a change in question wording affects the tone of pledge evaluations, it does not affect their accuracy. In the third article, we investigate the portrayal of electoral pledges in the news media. We know very little about the portrayal of electoral pledges in news media which is problematic because we do know the majority of citizens do not read electoral platforms, budgets, bills, etc. and as such obtain the information they need from the media. More precisely, this article investigates whether the media alert citizens when a pledge is broken? This study covers the 244 pledges made by the government party, the Conservative Party, during the 2011 and 2008 Canadian elections. Our period ranges from the 2008 election (07/09/2008) to the end of the 2011 mandate (08/04/2015). This study finds that the news media do alert citizens when a pledge is broken and that what is often described as the “Burglar alarm model” in political communication provides an apt description of the dynamics at play in the coverage of electoral pledges

Supervised scaling of semi-structured interview transcripts to characterize the ideology of a social policy reform

Automated content analysis methods treat ‘‘text as data'' and can therefore analyze efficiently large qualitative databases. Yet, despite their potential, these methods are rarely used to supplement qualitative analysis in small-N designs. We address this gap by replicating the qualitative findings of a case study of a social policy reform using automated content analysis. To characterize the ideology of this reform, we reanalyze the same interview data with Wordscores, using academic publications as reference texts. As expected, the reform's ideology is center/center-right, a result that we validate using content, convergent and discriminant strategies. The validation evidence suggests not only that the ideological positioning of the policy reform is credible, but also that Wordscores' scope of application is greater than expecte

The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE): Mission Description and Initial On-orbit Performance

The all sky surveys done by the Palomar Observatory Schmidt, the European Southern Observatory Schmidt, and the United Kingdom Schmidt, the InfraRed Astronomical Satellite and the 2 Micron All Sky Survey have proven to be extremely useful tools for astronomy with value that lasts for decades. The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer is mapping the whole sky following its launch on 14 December 2009. WISE began surveying the sky on 14 Jan 2010 and completed its first full coverage of the sky on July 17. The survey will continue to cover the sky a second time until the cryogen is exhausted (anticipated in November 2010). WISE is achieving 5 sigma point source sensitivities better than 0.08, 0.11, 1 and 6 mJy in unconfused regions on the ecliptic in bands centered at wavelengths of 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 microns. Sensitivity improves toward the ecliptic poles due to denser coverage and lower zodiacal background. The angular resolution is 6.1, 6.4, 6.5 and 12.0 arc-seconds at 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 microns, and the astrometric precision for high SNR sources is better than 0.15 arc-seconds.Comment: 22 pages with 19 included figures. Updated to better match the accepted version in the A

The Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE): Mission Description and Initial On-Orbit Performance

The all sky surveys done by the Palomar Observatory Schmidt, the European Southern Observatory Schmidt, and the United Kingdom Schmidt, the InfraRed Astronomical Satellite and the 2 Micron All Sky Survey have proven to be extremely useful tools for astronomy with value that lasts for decades. The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer is mapping the whole sky following its launch on 14 December 2009. WISE began surveying the sky on 14 Jan 2010 and completed its first full coverage of the sky on July 17. The survey will continue to cover the sky a second time until the cryogen is exhausted (anticipated in November 2010). WISE is achieving 5 sigma point source sensitivities better than 0.08, 0.11, 1 and 6 mJy in unconfused regions on the ecliptic in bands centered at wavelengths of 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 micrometers. Sensitivity improves toward the ecliptic poles due to denser coverage and lower zodiacal background. The angular resolution is 6.1", 6.4", 6.5" and 12.0" at 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 micrometers, and the astrometric precision for high SNR sources is better than 0.15"

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

Supplemental Material, pp-2017-0171-File_Appendix - Citizens’ evaluations of campaign pledge fulfillment in Canada

<p>Supplemental Material, pp-2017-0171-File_Appendix for Citizens’ evaluations of campaign pledge fulfillment in Canada by Dominic Duval, and François Pétry in Party Politics</p

Supplemental Material, Online_Appendix - Do regional governments fulfill fewer election promises than national governments? The case of Quebec in comparative perspective

<p>Supplemental Material, Online_Appendix for Do regional governments fulfill fewer election promises than national governments? The case of Quebec in comparative perspective by François Pétry, Dominic Duval, and Lisa Birch in Party Politics</p

Phenotyping the Responses to Systemic Corticosteroids in the Management of Asthma Attacks (PRISMA): protocol for an observational and translational pilot study

Abstract: Introduction Asthma and its associated exacerbation are heterogeneous. Although severe asthma attacks are systematically prescribed corticosteroids and often antibiotics, little is known about the variability of response to these therapies. Blood eosinophils and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) are type 2 inflammation biomarkers that have established mechanistic, prognostic and theragnostic values in chronic asthma, but their utility in acute asthma is unclear. We speculate that the clinical and biological response to those treatments varies according to inflammometry and microbiological test results. Methods and analysis An observational longitudinal pilot study with multimodal clinical and translational assessments will be performed on 50 physician-diagnosed ≥12-year-old asthmatics presenting with an asthma attack and 12 healthy controls, including blood eosinophil count (venous and point-of-care (POC) capillary blood), FeNO and testing for airway infection (sputum cultures and POC nasopharyngeal swabs). People with asthma will be assessed on day 0 and after a 7-day corticosteroid course, with home monitoring performed in between. The primary analysis will be the change in the forced expiratory volume in 1 s according to type 2 inflammatory status (blood eosinophils ≥0.15×109 /L and/or FeNO ≥25 ppb) after treatment. Key secondary analyses will compare changes in symptom scores and the proportion of patients achieving a minimal clinically important difference. Exploratory analyses will assess the relationship between clinical, lung function, inflammatory and microbiome parameters; satisfaction plus reliability indices of POC tests; and sex– gender variability in treatment response. Ultimately, this pilot study will serve to plan a larger trial comparing the clinical and biological response to systemic corticosteroids according to inflammatory biomarkers, offering valuable guidance for more personalised therapeutic strategies in asthma attacks. Ethics and dissemination The protocol has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the CIUSSS de l'Estrie–CHUS, Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada (#2023- 4687). Results will be communicated in an international meeting and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal

Mechano-optical couplings in an oxynitride glass-ceramic

International audienc