Lost in Transmission? Stock Market Impacts of the 2006 European Gas Crisis

Around the turn of the year 2005/2006, the Russian freezing of natural gas exports to the Ukraine led to a European gas crisis. Using event study technique, we first investigate whether the Russian announcement of suspension of gas deliveries, this suspension itself as well as its withdrawal, had an effect on unsystematic volatility of European energy stocks. Secondly, we measure event effects on stock returns, taking volatility into account. Our results suggest that the announcement of the crisis and therefore a rise of Western Europe?s energy cost and risk tended to increase market expectations with respect to energy-related firms. In contrast, market uncertainty increased when Russia reopened its valves. One reason for these findings could be windfall profits of energy-related companies due to increasing resource and electricity prices. The existence of event-induced volatility confirms our methodological approach in order to test for abnormal returns. --energy security,event study,gas crisis

Log versus level in VAR forecasting: 16 Million empirical answers - expect the unexpected

The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models is employed in a multi-country setup and approximately 16 Mio. pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated. The results show that, on average, the knee-jerk transformation of the data is at best harmless.VAR-forecasting, logarithmic transformation

Lost in Transmission? Stock Market Impacts of the 2006 European Gas Crisis

Around the turn of the year 2005/2006, the Russian freezing of natural gas exports to the Ukraine led to a European gas crisis. Using event study techniques, we first investigate whether the Russian suspension of gas deliveries, the announcement of this suspension as well as its withdrawal had an effect on unsystematic volatility of European energy stocks. Second, we measure event effects on stock returns, taking volatility (GARCH effects) and especially possible firm-specific, event-induced volatility into account. We get – at a first glance – counterintuitive results suggesting that the definite announcement of the crisis and therefore a rise of Western Europe’s energy risk tended to increase market expectations with respect to energy-related firms. In contrast, market uncertainty increased the day when Russia reopened its valves. One reason for these findings could be windfall profits of energy-related companies due to increasing resource and electricity prices. The existence of event-induced volatility at a between-firm level confirms the choice of our flexible abnormal returns methodology.Energy security, event study, gas crisis

ifo Konjunkturprognose 2006/2007: Aufschwung setzt sich fort

Die Weltwirtschaft ist in einem robusten Aufschwung. Das vom ifo Institut erhobene Weltwirtschaftsklima hat sich im Frühjahr 2006 zum dritten Mal in Folge verbessert; und liegt deutlich über dem langfristigen Durchschnitt. Die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft wird im Prognosezeitraum schwungvoll bleiben, sich jedoch schrittweise etwas abflachen. Die Konjunktur in Deutschland zeigt sich zur Jahresmitte 2006 gut in Form. Das hervorragende ifo Geschäftsklima indiziert, dass der Aufschwung der deutschen Wirtschaft beträchtlich an Breite gewonnen hat. Neben dem mit hoher Drehzahl laufenden Exportmotor ist nun auch die Binnenkonjunktur in Schwung gekommen. Die Investitionen in Ausrüstungen haben Tritt gefasst; die neuesten Zahlen des ifo Konjunkturtests signalisieren, dass nicht nur die im Sog des Exportbooms stehenden Unternehmen investieren, sondern nun auch die eher binnenwirtschaftlich orientierten Unternehmen. Selbst der private Konsum hat, nach dem Rückgang im Jahresendquartal 2005, zugelegt; zusätzliche Impulse werden in der zweiten Jahreshälfte von vorgezogenen Käufen ausgehen, mit denen die ab Januar kommenden Jahres geltende höhere Mehrwertsteuer kurzfristig noch eingespart werden kann. Ingesamt wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr um 1,8% expandieren; nach Ausschaltung der im Vergleich zu 2005 geringeren Zahl an Arbeitstagen um 2%. Im kommenden Jahr wird die Konjunktur durch die massive Erhöhung von Steuern und Abgaben zwar beträchtlich gedämpft; gleichwohl wird sich aber der Aufschwung fortsetzen. Diese Einschätzung stützt sich zu einem großen Teil auf die endogene Konjunkturdynamik der deutschen Wirtschaft. Nach einem "klassischen" Abschwung in den ersten Jahren dieses Jahrzehnts, der von einem Rückgang der Trendwachstumsrate begleitet war, wurde sowohl bei der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion als auch bei den Ausrüstungsinvestitionen im Laufe des Jahres 2004 der untere Wendepunkt erreicht.Weltkonjunktur, Konjunkturprognose, Wirtschaftslage, Wirtschaftswachstum, Geschäftsklima, Deutschland, Welt

The epidemiology of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in community-living seniors: protocol of the MemoVie cohort study, Luxembourg

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are increasingly considered a major public health problem. The MemoVie cohort study aims to investigate the living conditions or risk factors under which the normal cognitive capacities of the senior population in Luxembourg (≥ 65 year-old) evolve (1) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) – transitory non-clinical stage – and (2) to AD. Identifying MCI and AD predictors undeniably constitutes a challenge in public health in that it would allow interventions which could protect or delay the occurrence of cognitive disorders in elderly people. In addition, the MemoVie study sets out to generate hitherto unavailable data, and a comprehensive view of the elderly population in the country. METHODS/DESIGN: The study has been designed with a view to highlighting the prevalence in Luxembourg of MCI and AD in the first step of the survey, conducted among participants selected from a random sample of the general population. A prospective cohort is consequently set up in the second step, and appropriate follow-up of the non-demented participants allows improving the knowledge of the preclinical stage of MCI. Case-control designs are used for cross-sectional or retrospective comparisons between outcomes and biological or clinical factors. To ensure maximal reliability of the information collected, we decided to opt for structured face to face interviews. Besides health status, medical and family history, demographic and socio-cultural information are explored, as well as education, habitat network, social behavior, leisure and physical activities. As multilingualism is expected to challenge the cognitive alterations associated with pathological ageing, it is additionally investigated. Data relative to motor function, including balance, walk, limits of stability, history of falls and accidents are further detailed. Finally, biological examinations, including ApoE genetic polymorphism are carried out. In addition to standard blood parameters, the lipid status of the participants is subsequently determined from the fatty acid profiles in their red blood cells. The study obtained the legal and ethical authorizations. DISCUSSION: By means of the multidisciplinary MemoVie study, new insights into the onset of cognitive impairment during aging should be put forward, much to the benefit of intervention strategies as a whole

Repair or destruction: an intimate liaison between ubiquitin ligases and molecular chaperones in proteostasis

Cellular differentiation, developmental processes, and environmental factors challenge the integrity of the proteome in every eukaryotic cell. The maintenance of protein homeostasis, or proteostasis, involves folding and degradation of damaged proteins, and is essential for cellular function, organismal growth, and viability [1, 2]. Misfolded proteins that cannot be refolded by chaperone machineries are degraded by specialized proteolytic systems. A major degradation pathway regulating cellular proteostasis is the ubiquitin/proteasome-system (UPS), which regulates turnover of damaged proteins that accumulate upon stress and during aging. Despite the large number of structurally unrelated substrates, ubiquitin conjugation is remarkably selective. Substrate selectivity is mainly provided by the group of E3 enzymes. Several observations indicate that numerous E3 ubiquitin ligases intimately collaborate with molecular chaperones to maintain the cellular proteome. In this Review, we provide an overview of specialized quality control E3 ligases playing a critical role in the degradation of damaged proteins. The process of substrate recognition and turnover, the type of chaperones they team up with, and the potential pathogeneses associated with their malfunction will be further discusse