Machine learning approaches to enhance diagnosis and staging of patients with MASLD using routinely available clinical information

Aims: Metabolic dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) outcomes such as MASH (metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis), fibrosis and cirrhosis are ordinarily determined by resource-intensive and invasive biopsies. We aim to show that routine clinical tests offer sufficient information to predict these endpoints. Methods: Using the LITMUS Metacohort derived from the European NAFLD Registry, the largest MASLD dataset in Europe, we create three combinations of features which vary in degree of procurement including a 19-variable feature set that are attained through a routine clinical appointment or blood test. This data was used to train predictive models using supervised machine learning (ML) algorithm XGBoost, alongside missing imputation technique MICE and class balancing algorithm SMOTE. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were added to determine relative importance for each clinical variable. Results: Analysing nine biopsy-derived MASLD outcomes of cohort size ranging between 5385 and 6673 subjects, we were able to predict individuals at training set AUCs ranging from 0.719-0.994, including classifying individuals who are At-Risk MASH at an AUC = 0.899. Using two further feature combinations of 26-variables and 35-variables, which included composite scores known to be good indicators for MASLD endpoints and advanced specialist tests, we found predictive performance did not sufficiently improve. We are also able to present local and global explanations for each ML model, offering clinicians interpretability without the expense of worsening predictive performance. Conclusions: This study developed a series of ML models of accuracy ranging from 71.9—99.4% using only easily extractable and readily available information in predicting MASLD outcomes which are usually determined through highly invasive means

Adiponectin, leptin, and IGF-1 are useful diagnostic and stratification biomarkers of NAFLD

[EN] Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease where liver biopsy remains the gold standard for diagnosis. Here we aimed to evaluate the role of circulating adiponectin, leptin, and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) levels as non-invasive NAFLD biomarkers and assess their correlation with the metabolome. Materials and Methods: Leptin, adiponectin, and IGF-1 serum levels were measured by ELISA in two independent cohorts of biopsy-proven obese NAFLD patients and healthy-liver controls (discovery: 38 NAFLD, 13 controls; validation: 194 NAFLD, 31 controls) and correlated with clinical data, histology, genetic parameters, and serum metabolomics. Results: In both cohorts, leptin increased in NAFLD vs. controls (discovery: AUROC 0.88; validation: AUROC 0.83; p < 0.0001). The leptin levels were similar between obese and non-obese healthy controls, suggesting that obesity is not a confounding factor. In the discovery cohort, adiponectin was lower in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) vs. non-alcoholic fatty liver (AUROC 0.87; p < 0.0001). For the validation cohort, significance was attained for homozygous for PNPLA3 allele c.444C (AUROC 0.63; p < 0.05). Combining adiponectin with specific serum lipids improved the assay performance (AUROC 0.80; p < 0.0001). For the validation cohort, IGF-1 was lower with advanced fibrosis (AUROC 0.67, p<0.05), but combination with international normalized ratio (INR) and ferritin increased the assay performance (AUROC 0.81; p < 0.01). Conclusion: Serum leptin discriminates NAFLD, and adiponectin combined with specific lipids stratifies NASH. IGF-1, INR, and ferritin distinguish advanced fibrosis.CR was funded by FEDER through the COMPETE program and by national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (PTDC/MED-FAR/29097/2017—LISBOA-01- 0145-FEDER-029097) and by European Horizon 2020 (H2020- MSCA-RISE-2016-734719). This work was also supported by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (PD/BD/135467/2017) and Portuguese Association for the Study of Liver/MSD 2017. JB was funded by Spanish Carlos III Health Institute (ISCIII) (PI15/01132, PI18/01075 and Miguel Servet Program CON14/00129 and CPII19/00008), co-financed by Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBERehd, Spain), La Caixa Scientific Foundation (HR17-00601), Fundación Científica de la Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer, and European Horizon 2020 (ESCALON project: H2020-SC1-BHC-2018-2020)

The European NAFLD Registry: A real-world longitudinal cohort study of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), a progressive liver disease that is closely associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia, represents an increasing global public health challenge. There is significant variability in the disease course: the majority exhibit only fat accumulation in the liver but a significant minority develop a necroinflammatory form of the disease (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, NASH) that may progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. At present our understanding of pathogenesis, disease natural history and long-term outcomes remain incomplete. There is a need for large, well characterised patient cohorts that may be used to address these knowledge gaps and to support the development of better biomarkers and novel therapies. The European NAFLD Registry is an international, prospectively recruited observational cohort study that aims to establish a large, highly-phenotyped patient cohort and linked bioresource. Here we describe the infrastructure, data management and monitoring plans, and the standard operating procedures implemented to ensure the timely and systematic collection of high-quality data and samples. Already recruiting subjects at secondary/tertiary care centres across Europe, the Registry is supporting the European Union IMI2-funded LITMUS 'Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis' consortium, which is a major international effort to robustly validate biomarkers that diagnose, risk stratify and/or monitor NAFLD progression and liver fibrosis stage. The European NAFLD Registry has the demonstrable capacity to support research and biomarker development at scale and pace

Biomarkers for staging fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (the LITMUS project): a comparative diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND The reference standard for detecting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and staging fibrosis-liver biopsy-is invasive and resource intensive. Non-invasive biomarkers are urgently needed, but few studies have compared these biomarkers in a single cohort. As part of the Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis (LITMUS) project, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 17 biomarkers and multimarker scores in detecting NASH and clinically significant fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and identify their optimal cutoffs as screening tests in clinical trial recruitment. METHODS This was a comparative diagnostic accuracy study in people with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD from 13 countries across Europe, recruited between Jan 6, 2010, and Dec 29, 2017, from the LITMUS metacohort of the prospective European NAFLD Registry. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with paired liver biopsy and serum samples were eligible; those with excessive alcohol consumption or evidence of other chronic liver diseases were excluded. The diagnostic accuracy of the biomarkers was expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with liver histology as the reference standard and compared with the Fibrosis-4 index for liver fibrosis (FIB-4) in the same subgroup. Target conditions were the presence of NASH with clinically significant fibrosis (ie, at-risk NASH; NAFLD Activity Score ≥4 and F≥2) or the presence of advanced fibrosis (F≥3), analysed in all participants with complete data. We identified thres holds for each biomarker for reducing the number of biopsy-based screen failures when recruiting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis for future trials. FINDINGS Of 1430 participants with NAFLD in the LITMUS metacohort with serum samples, 966 (403 women and 563 men) were included after all exclusion criteria had been applied. 335 (35%) of 966 participants had biopsy-confirmed NASH and clinically significant fibrosis and 271 (28%) had advanced fibrosis. For people with NASH and clinically significant fibrosis, no single biomarker or multimarker score significantly reached the predefined AUC 0·80 acceptability threshold (AUCs ranging from 0·61 [95% CI 0·54-0·67] for FibroScan controlled attenuation parameter to 0·81 [0·75-0·86] for SomaSignal), with accuracy mostly similar to FIB-4. Regarding detection of advanced fibrosis, SomaSignal (AUC 0·90 [95% CI 0·86-0·94]), ADAPT (0·85 [0·81-0·89]), and FibroScan liver stiffness measurement (0·83 [0·80-0·86]) reached acceptable accuracy. With 11 of 17 markers, histological screen failure rates could be reduced to 33% in trials if only people who were marker positive had a biopsy for evaluating eligibility. The best screening performance for NASH and clinically significant fibrosis was observed for SomaSignal (number needed to test [NNT] to find one true positive was four [95% CI 4-5]), then ADAPT (six [5-7]), MACK-3 (seven [6-8]), and PRO-C3 (nine [7-11]). INTERPRETATION None of the single markers or multimarker scores achieved the predefined acceptable AUC for replacing biopsy in detecting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis. However, several biomarkers could be applied in a prescreening strategy in clinical trial recruitment. The performance of promising markers will be further evaluated in the ongoing prospective LITMUS study cohort. FUNDING The Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking

Consensus Recommendations for Histological Criteria of Autoimmune Hepatitis from the International AIH Pathology Group

Background & Aims Diagnostic histological criteria for autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) have not been clearly established. Previously published criteria focused mainly on chronic AIH, in which inflammatory changes mainly occur in portal/periportal regions and may not be applicable to acute presentation of AIH, in which inflammatory changes are typically predominantly lobular in location. International consensus criteria for the diagnosis and assessment of disease severity in both acute and chronic AIH are thus urgently needed. Methods Seventeen expert liver pathologists convened at an international workshop and subsequently used a modified Delphi panel approach to establish consensus criteria for the histopathological diagnosis of AIH. Results The consensus view is that liver biopsy should remain standard for diagnosing AIH. AIH is considered likely, if there is a predominantly portal lymphoplasmacytic hepatitis with more than mild interface activity and/or more than mild lobular hepatitis in the absence of histological features suggestive of another liver disease. AIH is also considered likely if there is predominantly lobular hepatitis with or without centrilobular necroinflammation and at least one of the following features: portal lymphoplasmacytic hepatitis, interface hepatitis or portal-based fibrosis, in the absence of histological features suggestive of another liver disease. Emperipolesis and hepatocellular rosettes are not regarded as being specific for AIH. Conclusions The criteria proposed in this consensus statement provide a uniform approach to the histological diagnosis of AIH, which is relevant for patients with an acute as well as a chronic presentation and to more accurately reflect the current understanding of liver pathology in AIH

NASH limits anti-tumour surveillance in immunotherapy-treated HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can have viral or non-viral causes1-5. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is an important driver of HCC. Immunotherapy has been approved for treating HCC, but biomarker-based stratification of patients for optimal response to therapy is an unmet need6,7. Here we report the progressive accumulation of exhausted, unconventionally activated CD8+PD1+ T cells in NASH-affected livers. In preclinical models of NASH-induced HCC, therapeutic immunotherapy targeted at programmed death-1 (PD1) expanded activated CD8+PD1+ T cells within tumours but did not lead to tumour regression, which indicates that tumour immune surveillance was impaired. When given prophylactically, anti-PD1 treatment led to an increase in the incidence of NASH-HCC and in the number and size of tumour nodules, which correlated with increased hepatic CD8+PD1+CXCR6+, TOX+, and TNF+ T cells. The increase in HCC triggered by anti-PD1 treatment was prevented by depletion of CD8+ T cells or TNF neutralization, suggesting that CD8+ T cells help to induce NASH-HCC, rather than invigorating or executing immune surveillance. We found similar phenotypic and functional profiles in hepatic CD8+PD1+ T cells from humans with NAFLD or NASH. A meta-analysis of three randomized phase III clinical trials that tested inhibitors of PDL1 (programmed death-ligand 1) or PD1 in more than 1,600 patients with advanced HCC revealed that immune therapy did not improve survival in patients with non-viral HCC. In two additional cohorts, patients with NASH-driven HCC who received anti-PD1 or anti-PDL1 treatment showed reduced overall survival compared to patients with other aetiologies. Collectively, these data show that non-viral HCC, and particularly NASH-HCC, might be less responsive to immunotherapy, probably owing to NASH-related aberrant T cell activation causing tissue damage that leads to impaired immune surveillance. Our data provide a rationale for stratification of patients with HCC according to underlying aetiology in studies of immunotherapy as a primary or adjuvant treatment

Increased serum miR-193a-5p during non-alcoholic fatty liver disease progression: diagnostic and mechanistic relevance

Background & Aims: Serum microRNAs (miRNAs) levels are known to change in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and may serve as useful biomarkers. This study aimed to profile miRNAs comprehensively at all NAFLD stages.Methods: We profiled 2,083 serum miRNAs in a discovery cohort (183 NAFLD cases representing the complete NAFLD spectrum and 10 population controls). MiRNA libraries generated by HTG EdgeSeq were sequenced by Illumina NextSeq. Selected serum miRNAs were profiled in 372 additional NAFLD cases and 15 population controls by quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction.Results: Levels of 275 miRNAs differed between cases and population controls. Fewer differences were seen within individual NAFLD stages but miR-193a-5p consistently the showed increased levels in all comparisons. Relative to NAFL/NASH with mild fibrosis (stage 0/1), three miRNAs (miR-193a-5p, miR-378d and miR378d) were increased in cases with NASH and clinically significant fibrosis (stage 2-4), seven (miR193a-5p, miR-378d, miR-378e, miR-320b, c, d & e) increased in cases with NAFLD Activity Score (NAS) 5-8 compared with lower NAS, and three (miR-193a-5p, miR-378d, miR-378e) increased but one (miR-19b-3p) decreased in steatosis, activity, and fibrosis "activity" (SAF-A) score 2-4 compared with lower SAF-A. The significant findings for miR-193a-5p were replicated in the additional NAFLD cohort. Studies in Hep G2 cells showed that following palmitic acid treatment, miR-193a-5p expression decreased significantly. Gene targets for miR-193a-5p were investigated in liver RNAseq data for a case subgroup (n=80); liver GPX8 levels correlated positively with serum miR-193a-5p. Conclusions: Serum miR-193a-5p levels correlate strongly with NAFLD activity grade and fibrosis stage. MiR-193a-5p may have a role in the hepatic response to oxidative stress and is a potential clinically tractable circulating biomarker for progressive NAFLD

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BackgroundHistologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD.MethodsThis was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0–4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0–2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: 2·67; NFS: 0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.FindingsOf 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44–63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33–91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62–0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70–0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64–0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63–0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.InterpretationSimple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases

Histopathology of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Histological analysis of liver biopsies remains a standard against which other methods of assessment for the presence and amount of hepatic injury due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are measured. Histological evaluation remains the sole method of distinguishing steatosis from advanced forms of NAFLD, i.e. nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and fibrosis. Included in the lesions of NAFLD are steatosis, lobular and portal inflammation, hepatocyte injury in the forms of ballooning and apoptosis, and fibrosis. However, patterns of these lesions are as distinguishing as the lesions themselves. Liver injury in adults and children due to NAFLD may have different histological patterns. In this review, the rationale for liver biopsy, as well as the histopathological lesions, the microscopically observable patterns of injury, and the differential diagnoses of NAFLD and NASH are discussed