COVID-19 and economic recovery in compliance with climate targets

Non-technical summary A small benefit of the disastrous COVID-19 pandemic has been the temporary reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this paper asks: What strategies can return people to work without returning to the old high-emissions economy? How can we modify the old economic system to reduce environmental impacts while rebuilding employment? Technological change, such as replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy (RE), is necessary but, in an economy that's growing, unlikely to be sufficiently rapid to avoid dangerous climate change. Degrowth in physical consumption, especially by the 'rich' 10%, towards a steady-state economy, is needed as well as low-carbon jobs

Scenarios for mitigating CO<inf>2</inf> emissions from energy supply in the absence of CO<inf>2</inf> removal

This paper investigates the effectiveness of different energy scenarios for achieving early reductions in global energy-related CO2 emissions on trajectories to zero or near-zero emissions by 2050. To keep global heating below 1.5°C without overshoot by 2050, global CO2 emissions must decline by about half by 2030. To achieve rapid, early emission reductions entails substantially changing recent pre-COVID (2000–2019) observed trends, which comprise increasing total primary energy supply (TPES) and approximately constant fraction of TPES derived from fossil fuels (FF fraction). Scenarios are developed to explore the effects of varying future trends in these variables in the absence of substantial CO2 removal, because relying on the latter is speculative and risky. The principal result is that, to reduce energy-related emissions to at least half the 2019 level by 2030 en route to zero or near-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, either TPES must be reduced to at least half its 2019 value by 2050 or impossibly rapid reductions must be made in the FF fraction of supply, given current technological options. Reduction in energy consumption likely entails economic degrowth in high-income countries, driven by policies that are socioeconomic, cultural and political, in addition to technological. This needs serious consideration and international cooperation. Key policy insights If global energy consumption grows at the pre-COVID rate, technological change alone cannot halve global CO2 emissions by 2030 and hence cannot keep global heating below 1.5°C by 2050. In the absence of substantial CO2 removal, policies are needed to reduce global energy consumption and hence foster degrowth in high-income economies. Policies to drive technological and socioeconomic changes could together cut global energy consumption and thus total primary energy supply and associated emissions by at least 75% by 2050

Design limitations in Australian renewable electricity policies

Renewable electricity is pivotal to the medium and long-term reduction of Australia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, if deep cuts in them are eventually implemented. This paper examines the effectiveness of the principal existing policies that could potentially promote the expansion of renewable electricity (RElec) in Australia: the expanded Renewable Energy Target (RET); the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS); and the state and territory based feed-in tariffs. We find the effectiveness of RET is severely eroded by the inclusion of solar and heat pump hot water systems; by the inclusion of ‘phantom’ tradable certificates; and by high electricity consumption growth. We also find that the ETS will not produce a high enough carbon price to assist most RElec technologies before 2020; and that most of the feed-in tariffs exclude large-scale RElec and will give little assistance to small-scale RElec because they are mostly net tariffs. Unless there is a major revision of its RElec policy mechanisms, Australia will fail to reach its renewable electricity target and in particular will fail to build up its solar generation capacity which could be a major source of future deep cuts in the country’s electricity generation emissions

Letters to the Editor

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65900/1/j.1752-7325.1989.tb02048.x.pd

Exploring and contextualizing public opposition to renewable electricity in the United States

This article explores public opposition to renewable power technologies in the United States. It begins by discussing the genesis of environmental ethics, or how some Americans have come to place importance on the protection of the environment and preservation of species, ecosystems, and the biosphere. As result, renewable power systems have become challenged on ethical and environmental grounds and are occasionally opposed by local communities and environmentalists. The article finds that, however, such concern may be misplaced. Renewable electricity resources have many environmental benefits compared to power stations fueled by coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium. Opposition towards renewable resources can at times obscure the true costs and risks associated with electricity use and entrench potential racial and class-based inequalities within the current energy system

Further reflections on the temporality of energy transitions: a response to critics

In tandem with the call for more careful, thoughtful, reflexive thinking on the topic of energy transitions, in this paper we attempt to unpack some of the themes advanced in this Debate. We begin by investigating the multi-dimensionality of energy transitions as well as transition speeds for different parts of energy systems at different scales. We then call on analysts to consider transition speeds and scalar levels. We also argue for focusing on accelerated diffusion driven by rapid changes in cost, improvements in technology, or other factors

Cost-reliability analysis of hybrid pumped-battery storage for solar and wind energy integration in an island community

This paper presents a mathematical model for estimating the optimal sizing and assessing a standalone hybrid power system's performance entirely based on variable renewable energy sources and coupled with a hybrid energy storage system. This study evaluates how different levels of the main components' capital cost and the loss of power supply probability would affect the cost of energy and the power system's optimal sizing. The case study selected for this study was Ometepe Island in Nicaragua, where the crater lake of an extinct volcano was considered a feasible upper reservoir of a pumped storage hydropower plant, reducing the investments associated with this component. The mathematical formulation considers energy storage losses and gains, and the Pareto efficient solutions of the multi-objective optimization model simultaneously increase reliability, reduce the cost of energy, and minimize curtailment energy. By employing time-series with an hourly resolution, the model allows assessing the impact of the interannual variability of renewable energy sources on the system's performance. As for the case study, the cost of energy obtained from the model results ranges between €0.047/kWh and €0.095/kWh, based on international reference values, and these values match the information available in the literature and other databases

The Western Australian regional forest agreement: economic rationalism and the normalisation of political closure

This article explores the constraints imposed by economic rationalism on environmental policy-making in light of Western Australia\u27s (WA) Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) experience. Data derived from interviews with WA RFA stakeholders shed light on their perceptions of the RFA process and its outcomes. The extent to which involvement of science and the public RFA management enabled is analysed. The findings point to a pervasive constrainedness of WA\u27s RFA owing to a closing of the process by the administrative decision-making structures. A dominant economic rationality is seen to have normalised and legitimised political closure, effectively excluding rationalities dissenting from an implicit economic orthodoxy. This article argues for the explication of invisible, economic constraints affecting environmental policy and for the public-cum-political negotiation of the points of closure within political processes

Competing coalitions: The politics of renewable energy and fossil fuels in Mexico, South Africa and Thailand

This paper analyses why middle-income countries incentivize renewable energy despite inexpensive domestic fossil fuel resources and lack of international support. We examine the politics of renewable energy programs in Mexico, South Africa and Thailand. All three countries hold abundant local fossil fuel and renewable energy resources. We argue that renewable energy programs become implementable policy options in fossil fuel resource-rich middle-income countries when coalitions of powerful political actors support them. This study presents an analysis of the domestic coalitions in support of and those in opposition to renewable energy policies from a discourse network perspective. Discourse networks reflect actors and the arguments they share to advance or hamper the policy process. The analysis draws on a data set of 560 coded statements in support or opposition of renewable energy from media articles, policy documents and interviews. Findings show similar structures of competing coalitions in all three countries, with the discourse in all three countries revealing strong linkages between environmental and economic considerations