Elementos de Estatística e Probabilidades II

O principal objetivo da deste documento é fornecer conhecimentos básicos de variáveis aleatórias discretas e pares aleatórios discretos, um dos capítulos lecionados na disciplina de Elementos de Estatística e Probabilidades II do curso de Educação Básica

Conceptualizing sexual and gender-based violence in European asylum reception centers

Background: Sexual and gender based violence (SGBV) is a major public health problem and a violation of human rights. Refugees, asylum seekers and migrants are exposed to a constant risk for both victimization and perpetration. Yet, in the context of European asylum reception centers (EARF) professionals are also considered to be at risk. Our study explores the conceptualization of SGBV that residents and professionals have in this specific context. Further, we intent to identify key socio-demographic characteristics that are associated with SGBV conceptualization for both groups. Methods: We developed a cross-sectional study using the Senperforto project database. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with residents (n=398) and professionals (n=202) at EARF. A principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted to variables related with knowledge on SGBV. Chi-square test and Fisher's exact test were applied to understand if significant statistical association exists with socio-demographic characteristics (significant level 0.5%). Results: The majority of residents were male (64.6%), aged from 19 to 29years (41.4%) and single (66.8%); for professionals the majority were women (56.2%), aged from 30 to 39years (42.3%) and married (56.8%). PCA for residents resulted in 14 dimensions of SGBV representing 83.56% of the total variance of the data, while for professionals it resulted in 17 dimensions that represent 86.92% of the total variance of the data. For both groups differences in SGBV conceptualization were found according to host country, sex, age and marital status. Specific for residents we found differences according to the time of arrival to Europe/host country and type of accommodation, while for professionals differences were found according to legal status and education skills. Conclusion: Residents and professionals described different conceptualization of SGBV, with specific types of SGBV not being recognized as a violent act. Primary preventive strategies in EARF should focus on reducing SGBV conceptualization discrepancies, taking into account socio-demographic characteristics

Modelling and analysis of forest fire data in Portugal

In the last decade, forest fires have become a natural disaster in Portugal, causing great forest devastation, leading to both economic and environmental losses and putting at risk populations and the livelihoods of the forest itself. In this work, we present Bayesian hierarchical models to analyze spatio-temporal fire data on the proportion of burned area in Portugal, by municipalities and over three decades. Mixture of distributions was employed to model jointly the proportion of area burned and the excess of no burned area for early years. For getting estimates of the model parameters, we used Monte Carlo Markov chain methods

Conceptualizing sexual and gender-based violence in European asylum reception centers

BACKGROUND: Sexual and gender based violence (SGBV) is a major public health problem and a violation of human rights. Refugees, asylum seekers and migrants are exposed to a constant risk for both victimization and perpetration. Yet, in the context of European asylum reception centers (EARF) professionals are also considered to be at risk. Our study explores the conceptualization of SGBV that residents and professionals have in this specific context. Further, we intent to identify key socio-demographic characteristics that are associated with SGBV conceptualization for both groups. METHODS: We developed a cross-sectional study using the Senperforto project database. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with residents (n = 398) and professionals (n = 202) at EARF. A principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted to variables related with knowledge on SGBV. Chi-square test and Fisher's exact test were applied to understand if significant statistical association exists with socio-demographic characteristics (significant level 0.5%). RESULTS: The majority of residents were male (64.6%), aged from 19 to 29 years (41.4%) and single (66.8%); for professionals the majority were women (56.2%), aged from 30 to 39 years (42.3%) and married (56.8%). PCA for residents resulted in 14 dimensions of SGBV representing 83.56% of the total variance of the data, while for professionals it resulted in 17 dimensions that represent 86.92% of the total variance of the data. For both groups differences in SGBV conceptualization were found according to host country, sex, age and marital status. Specific for residents we found differences according to the time of arrival to Europe/host country and type of accommodation, while for professionals differences were found according to legal status and education skills. CONCLUSION: Residents and professionals described different conceptualization of SGBV, with specific types of SGBV not being recognized as a violent act. Primary preventive strategies in EARF should focus on reducing SGBV conceptualization discrepancies, taking into account socio-demographic characteristics.publishersversionpublishe

Estimativas de excesso de mortalidade associado a calor extremo entre maio e setembro de 2015, em Portugal Continental

O sistema de vigilância ICARO esta em funcionamento desde 1999 e tem como principal objetivo a deteção de períodos de calor extremo que, com base no cumprimento de um conjunto de critérios são considerados como potenciadores de impactes na mortalidade da população portuguesa residente no continente. Em 2015 foram identificados alguns períodos, e o objetivo do trabalho incluído no presente relatório foi calcular a estimativa dos excessos de mortalidade observados em durante os mesmos períodos de calor e descrever a sua distribuição por sexo, grupo etário e região de saúde. Para medir o efeito dos períodos de calor na mortalidade, foram usados dados diários de mortalidade provenientes do sistema VDM (Vigilância Diária da Mortalidade) comparando a mortalidade observada em cada período de calor extremo com a mortalidade esperada para o mesmo período caso não tivesse existido excesso de calor (razões O/E). O número de óbitos esperado foi estimado a partir de um método de regressão cíclica aplicado a serie temporal de dados entre 01-10-2007 e 30-09-2015. Não foram observados excessos de mortalidade em nenhum dos períodos identificados para a globalidade dos dados de Portugal Continental. Estratificando os dados os maiores excessos por 100000 habitantes verificaram-se no grupo etário dos 85 e mais anos no período 2 com 13 óbitos em excesso estimados

Modelling and Analysis of Forest Fire in Portugal - Part I

In the last decades forest fires became a serious problem in Portugal due to different issues such a climatic characteristics and nature of Portuguese forest. In order to analyze forest data, we use generalized linear models for modeling the proportion of burned forest area. Our goal is to find out fire risk factors that influence that proportion of burned area and what may make a forest type susceptible or resistant to fire. Then, we analyze forest fire data in Portugal during 1990-1994 through frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Psychological Distress and Domestic Violence Under COVID-19 Lockdown in LGBT+ Persons in Belgium, Germany, and Portugal

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide issued lockdown and social-distancing measures, which triggers psychological distress and may increase the occurrence of domestic violence (DV). We examined the role of the LGBT+ status in the relationship between risk factors of DV and its occurrence during the pandemic. Methods: In this cross-sectional study (n = 5,148), an online self-report questionnaire was administered to a non-probabilistic sample of participants living in Belgium, Germany, and Portugal between March and June 2020. Participants were sampled through national media, social media, and snowballing procedures. Results: LGBT+ persons reported significantly higher levels of perceived stress, more acute stress symptoms, and more illegal drug use during the first weeks of the lockdown compared to non-LGBT+ persons. DV in LGBT+ persons was not more prevalent than in the non-LGBT under COVID-19 lockdown measures. No significant evidence was found indicating that identifying as LGBT+ itself increases the risk of DV exposure. Conclusion: LGBT+ persons were more at risk of DV compared to non-LGBT+ persons prior to but not during COVID-19 lockdown measures. The increased risk for DV can be linked to socio-demographic characteristics, levels of stress, and illegal drug use which are more prevalent in LGBT+ persons than in non-LGBT+ persons

REDUCTION OF CLUSTER ITERATION MAPS

We study iteration maps of difference equations arising from mutation periodic quivers of arbitrary period. Combining tools from cluster algebra theory and presymplectic geometry, we show that these cluster iteration maps can be reduced to symplectic maps on a lower dimensional submanifold, provided the matrix representing the quiver is singular. The reduced iteration map is explicitly computed for several periodic quivers using either the presymplectic reduction or a Poisson reduction via log-canonical Poisson structures