Potential Effects of Landscape Change on Water Supplies in the Presence of Reservoir Storage

This work presents a set of methods to evaluate the potential effects of landscape changes on water supplies. Potential impacts are a function of the seasonality of precipitation, losses of water to evapotranspiration and deep recharge, the flow-regulating ability of watersheds, and the availability of reservoir storage. For a given reservoir capacity, simple reservoir simulations with daily precipitation and streamflow enable the determination of the maximum steady supply of water for both the existing watershed and a hypothetical counter-factual that has neither flow-regulating benefits nor any losses. These two supply values, representing land use end-members, create an envelope that defines the water-supply service and bounds the effect of landscape change on water supply. These bounds can be used to discriminate between water supplies that may be vulnerable to landscape change and those that are unlikely to be affected. Two indices of the water-supply service exhibit substantial variability across 593 watersheds in the continental United States. Rcross, the reservoir capacity at which landscape change is unlikely to have any detrimental effect on water supply has an interquartile range of 0.14–4% of mean-annual-streamflow. Steep, forested watersheds with seasonal climates tend to have greater service values, and the indices of water-supply service are positively correlated with runoff ratios during the months with lowest flows

Potential Effects of Landscape Change on Water Supplies in the Presence of Reservoir Storage

This work presents a set of methods to evaluate the potential effects of landscape changes on water supplies. Potential impacts are a function of the seasonality of precipitation, losses of water to evapotranspiration and deep recharge, the flow-regulating ability of watersheds, and the availability of reservoir storage. For a given reservoir capacity, simple reservoir simulations with daily precipitation and streamflow enable the determination of the maximum steady supply of water for both the existing watershed and a hypothetical counter-factual that has neither flow-regulating benefits nor any losses. These two supply values, representing land use end-members, create an envelope that defines the water-supply service and bounds the effect of landscape change on water supply. These bounds can be used to discriminate between water supplies that may be vulnerable to landscape change and those that are unlikely to be affected. Two indices of the water-supply service exhibit substantial variability across 593 watersheds in the continental United States. Rcross, the reservoir capacity at which landscape change is unlikely to have any detrimental effect on water supply has an interquartile range of 0.14–4% of mean-annual-streamflow. Steep, forested watersheds with seasonal climates tend to have greater service values, and the indices of water-supply service are positively correlated with runoff ratios during the months with lowest flows

Low-degree convection with melting and application to the Martian northern hemisphere

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, 2006.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 57-64).I investigate the hypothesis that the young and smooth surface of the Martian northern hemisphere is due to volcanic resurfacing driven by degree-one convection. I implement a batch melting process in a finite element convection model and run numerical experiments to quantify the melt fraction, timing of melting, and timing of the onset of degree-one convection. All models include a stratified viscosity to induce degree-one flow. To assure that the model's result is robust I vary the model's initial conditions, core-mantle boundary temperature and radius, and the thickness of the lithospheric lid. Long-wavelength convection is a consistent result of the viscosity stratification, and degree-one occurs in one third of the numerical experiments. I compare the melt fraction and onset of degree-one convection to the geological evidence from Martian orbiters, rovers, and meteorites. Good agreement is found between the numerical models and geological evidence, so this model suggests that volcanism driven by degree-one convection may play a significant role in the young age of the northern hemisphere of Mars.by P. James Dennedy-Frank.S.M

On the similarity of hillslope hydrologic function: a clustering approach based on groundwater changes

Hillslope similarity is an active topic in hydrology because of its importance in improving our understanding of hydrologic processes and enabling comparisons and paired studies. In this study, we propose a holistic bottom-up hillslope clustering based on a region's integrative hydrodynamic response quantified by the seasonal changes in groundwater levels ΔP. The main advantage of the ΔP clustering is its ability to capture recharge and discharge processes. We test the performance of the ΔP clustering by comparing it to seven other common hillslope clustering approaches. These include clustering approaches based on the aridity index, topographic wetness index, elevation, land cover, and machine-learning that jointly integrate multiple data. We assess the ability of these clustering approaches to identify and categorize hillslopes with similar static characteristics, hydroclimate, land surface processes, and subsurface dynamics in a mountainous watershed – the East River – located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The ΔP clustering performs very well in identifying hillslopes with six out of the nine characteristics studied. The variability among clusters as quantified by the coefficient of variation (0.2) is less in the ΔP and the machine learning approaches than in the others (&gt; 0.3 for TWI, elevation, and land cover). We further demonstrate the robustness of the ΔP clustering by testing its ability to predict hillslope responses to wet and dry hydrologic conditions, of which it performs well when based on average conditions.</p

Comparing two tools for ecosystem service assessments regarding water resources decisions

We present a comparison of two ecohydrologic models commonly used for planning land management to assess the production of hydrologic ecosystem services: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) annual water yield model. We compare these two models at two distinct sites in the US: the Wildcat Creek Watershed in Indiana and the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed in Georgia. The InVEST and SWAT models provide similar estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Wildcat Creek, but very different estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Upper Upatoi Creek. The InVEST model may do a poor job estimating the spatial distribution of water yield in the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed because baseflow provides a significant portion of the site’s total water yield, which means that storage dynamics which are not modeled by InVEST may be important. We also compare the ability of these two models, as well as one newly developed set of ecosystem service indices, to deliver useful guidance for land management decisions focused on providing hydrologic ecosystem services in three particular decision contexts: environmental flow ecosystem services, ecosystem services for potable water supply, and ecosystem services for rainfed irrigation. We present a simple framework for selecting models or indices to evaluate hydrologic ecosystem services as a way to formalize where models deliver useful guidance

Empirical validation of the InVEST water yield ecosystem service model at a national scale

A variety of tools have emerged with the goal of mapping the current delivery of ecosystem services and quantifying the impact of environmental changes. An important and often overlooked question is how accurate the outputs of these models are in relation to empirical observations. In this paper we validate a hydrological ecosystem service model (InVEST Water Yield Model) using widely available data. We modelled annual water yield in 22 UK catchments with widely varying land cover, population and geology, and compared model outputs with gauged river flow data from the UK National River Flow Archive. Values for input parameters were selected from existing literature to reflect conditions in the UK and were subjected to sensitivity analyses. We also compared model performance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data sourced from global- and UK-scale datasets. We then tested the transferability of the results within the UK by additional validation in a further 20 catchments. Whilst the model performed only moderately with global-scale data (linear regression of modelled total water yield against empirical data; slope = 0.763, intercept = 54.45, R2 = 0.963) with wide variation in performance between catchments, the model performed much better when using UK-scale input data, with closer fit to the observed data (slope = 1.07, intercept = 3.07, R2 = 0.990). With UK data the majority of catchments showed less than 10% difference between measured and modelled water yield but there was a minor but consistent overestimate per hectare (86 m3/ha/year). Additional validation on a further 20 UK catchments was similarly robust, indicating that these results are transferable within the UK. These results suggest that relatively simple models can give accurate measures of ecosystem services. However, the choice of input data is critical and there is a need for further validation in other parts of the worl

National scale evaluation of the InVEST nutrient retention model in the United Kingdom

A wide variety of tools aim to support decision making by modelling, mapping and quantifying ecosystem services. If decisions are to be properly informed, the accuracy and potential limitations of these tools must be well understood. However, dedicated studies evaluating ecosystem service models against empirical data are rare, especially over large areas. In this paper, we report on the national-scale assessment of a new ecosystem service model for nutrient delivery and retention, the InVEST Nutrient Delivery Ratio model. For 36 river catchments across the UK, we modelled total catchment export of phosphorus (P) and/or nitrogen (N) and compared model outputs to measurements derived from empirical water chemistry data. The model performed well in terms of relative magnitude of nutrient export among catchments (best Spearman’s rank correlation for N and P, respectively: 0.81 and 0.88). However, there was wide variation among catchments in the accuracy of the model, and absolute values of nutrient exports frequently showed high percentage differences between modelled and empirically-derived exports (best median absolute percentage difference for N and P, respectively: ± 64%, ± 44%). The model also showed a high degree of sensitivity to nutrient loads and hydrologic routing input parameters and these sensitivities varied among catchments. These results suggest that the InVEST model can provide valuable information on nutrient fluxes to decision makers, especially in terms of relative differences among catchments. However, caution is needed if using the absolute modelled values for decision-making. Our study also suggests particular attention should be paid to researching input nutrient loadings and retentions, and the selection of appropriate input data resolutions and threshold flow accumulation values. Our results also highlight how availability of empirical data can improve model calibration and performance assessment and reinforce the need to include such data in ecosystem service modelling studies

Mexican-American Parents: Transmittors of Ethnic Identity.

This research examined the relationship between Mexican-American ethnic identity in parents and the transmission of cultural identity to children. The expectation was that Chicano parents who more strongly identified with the Mexican culture would be more likely to pass on ethnic identifications to their children. Data were obtained from 735 parents of Mexican descent as part of a comprehensive, bilingual survey about Chicano life. The respondents are a r and omly selected sample represenstative of about 90% of the Mexican-origin population in the United States. The research was supported by the Center for Minority Group Mental Health Programs of the National Institute of Mental Health. Cultural transmission was measured along two dimensions. Respondents were asked about desires that their children maintain various aspects of the Chicano culture. This yielded "ideal" measures of the transmission process. Parents were also asked about the extent to which their children behaved in ethnic ways, resulting in measures of "actual" transmission. The measure of cultural transmission were examined in relation to parental ethnic identity. Ethnic identity was conceptualized as a multidimensional phenomena that included normative, behavioral, and structural components of cultural life that distinguish the Mexican-American. Family identity, which tapped several dimensions of familism, received particular attention because of the salience of the family in the literature on Chicano's and because of the family's role in socialization. The results indicate that parental ethnic identity is a powerful, if specific, predictor of cultural transmission, particularly along behavioral lines. The strongest finding is that Mexican-American parents who speak Spanish and associate with other Chicanos overwhelmingly report children who do the same. There are several exceptions to the pattern of direct links between parental identity and cultural transmission. Some nativity differences are found in the transmission process. The measures of family identity tend to be independent of the other measures of ethnic identity. This finding challenges beliefs about the place of the family in the Chicano culture and invites further study.Ph.D.Social psychologyUniversity of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/158622/1/8204636.pd

Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed

In California, it is essential to understand the evolution of water resources in response to a changing climate to sustain its economy and agriculture and to build resilient communities. Although extreme conditions have characterized the historical hydroclimate of California, climate change will likely intensify hydroclimatic extremes by the end of the century (EoC). However, few studies have investigated the impacts of EoC extremes on watershed hydrology. We use cutting-edge global climate and integrated hydrologic models to simulate EoC extremes and their effects on the water-energy balance. We assess the impacts of projected driest, median, and wettest water years under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 on the hydrodynamics of the Cosumnes River basin. Substantial changes to annual average temperature (&gt; +2.5 °C) and precipitation (&gt; +38 %) will characterize the EoC extreme water years compared to their historical counterparts. A shift in the dominant form of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, is projected to fall earlier. These changes reduce snowpack by more than 90 %, increase peak surface water and groundwater storages up to 75 % and 23 %, respectively, and drive the timing of peak storage to occur earlier in the year. Because EoC temperatures and soil moisture are high, both potential and actual evapotranspiration (ET) increase. The latter, along with the lack of snowmelt in the warm EoC, causes surface water and groundwater storages to significantly decrease in summer, with groundwater showing the highest rates of decrease. These changes result in more ephemeral EoC streams with more focused flow and increased storage in the mainstem of the river network during the summer

Three-Dimensional Surface Downwelling Longwave Radiation Clear-Sky Effects in the Upper Colorado River Basin

In complex terrain, non-parallel surfaces receive emitted radiation from adjacent surfaces. Qualitatively, where surface skin temperatures and lower tropospheric temperature and humidity are not uniform, the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) will be determined not just by radiation from the atmosphere above a given location, but also by adjacent surface temperatures. We quantify this three-dimensional longwave radiative effect over the Upper Colorado River Basin in clear-sky conditions by calculating surface DLR with observed land-surface temperatures from ECOSTRESS. We find that this effect is due to terrain-subtended sky-view and represents ∼22% of the surface longwave flux, rising to ∼28% and ∼24% in the East and Southeast of the Basin, respectively, and can be &gt;50% in extreme cases. The common omission of this effect in atmospheric radiation models leads to an underestimation of DLR in complex terrain, especially at higher elevations, which has significant implications for mountainous ecohydrology simulations