Modeling the impact of novel diagnostic tests on pediatric and extrapulmonary tuberculosis

BACKGROUND: Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) and most pediatric TB cannot be diagnosed using sputum-based assays. The epidemiological impact of different strategies to diagnose EPTB and pediatric TB is unclear. METHODS: We developed a dynamic epidemic model of TB in a hypothetical population with epidemiological characteristics similar to India. We evaluated the impact of four alternative diagnostic test platforms on adult EPTB and pediatric TB mortality over 10 years: (1) Nucleic acid amplification test optimized for diagnosis of EPTB (“NAAT-EPTB”); (2) NAAT optimized for pediatric TB (“NAAT-Peds”); (3) more deployable NAAT for sputum-based diagnosis of adult pulmonary TB (“point-of-care (POC) sputum NAAT”); and (4) more deployable NAAT capable of diagnosing all forms of TB using non-invasive, non-sputum specimens (“POC non-sputum NAAT”). RESULTS: NAAT-EPTB lowered adult EPTB mortality by a projected 7.6% (95% uncertainty range [UR]: 6.5-8.8%). NAAT-Peds lowered pediatric TB mortality by 6.8% (UR: 4.9-8.4%). POC sputum NAAT, though only able to diagnose pulmonary TB, reduced projected pediatric TB deaths by 13.3% (UR: 4.6-15.7%) and adult EPTB deaths by 8.4% (UR 2.0-9.3%) simply by averting transmission of disease. POC non-sputum NAAT had the greatest effect, lowering pediatric TB mortality by 34.7% (UR: 26.8-38.7), and adult EPTB mortality by 38.5% (UR: 30.7-41.2). The relative impact of a POC sputum NAAT (i.e., enhanced deployability) versus NAAT-EPTB (i.e., enhanced ability to specifically diagnose TB-NSP) on adult EPTB mortality depends most strongly on factors that influence transmission, with settings of higher transmission (e.g., higher per-person transmission rate, lower diagnostic rate) favoring POC sputum NAAT. CONCLUSION: Although novel tests for pediatric TB and EPTB are likely to reduce TB mortality, major reductions in pediatric and EPTB incidence and mortality also require better diagnostic tests for adult pulmonary TB that reach a larger population. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-477) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Sensitive electrochemiluminescence (ECL) immunoassays for detecting lipoarabinomannan (LAM) and ESAT-6 in urine and serum from tuberculosis patients.

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) infection was responsible for an estimated 1.3 million deaths in 2017. Better diagnostic tools are urgently needed. We sought to determine whether accurate TB antigen detection in blood or urine has the potential to meet the WHO target product profiles for detection of active TB.Materials and methodsWe developed Electrochemiluminescence (ECL) immunoassays for Lipoarabinomannan (LAM) and ESAT-6 detection with detection limits in the pg/ml range and used them to compare the concentrations of the two antigens in the urine and serum of 81 HIV-negative and -positive individuals with presumptive TB enrolled across diverse geographic sites.ResultsLAM and ESAT-6 overall sensitivities in urine were 93% and 65% respectively. LAM and ESAT-6 overall sensitivities in serum were 55% and 46% respectively. Overall specificity was ≥97% in all assays. Sensitivities were higher in HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative patients for both antigens and both sample types, with signals roughly 10-fold higher on average in urine than in serum. The two antigens showed similar concentration ranges within the same sample type and correlated.ConclusionsLAM and ESAT-6 can be detected in the urine and serum of TB patients, regardless of the HIV status and further gains in clinical sensitivity may be achievable through assay and reagent optimization. Accuracy in urine was higher with current methods and has the potential to meet the WHO accuracy target if the findings can be transferred to a point-of-care TB test

A Novel Sensitive Immunoassay Targeting the 5-Methylthio-d-Xylofuranose-Lipoarabinomannan Epitope Meets the WHO's Performance Target for Tuberculosis Diagnosis.

The only currently commercialized point-of-care assay for tuberculosis (TB) that measures lipoarabinomannan (LAM) in urine (Alere LF-LAM) has insufficient sensitivity. We evaluated the potential of 100 novel monoclonal antibody pairs targeting a variety of LAM epitopes on a sensitive electrochemiluminescence platform to improve the diagnostic accuracy. In the screening, many antibody pairs showed high reactivity to purified LAM but performed poorly at detecting urinary LAM in clinical samples, suggesting differences in antigen structure and immunoreactivity of the different LAM sources. The 12 best antibody pairs from the screening were tested in a retrospective case-control study with urine samples from 75 adults with presumptive TB. The best antibody pair reached femtomolar analytical sensitivity for LAM detection and an overall clinical sensitivity of 93% (confidence interval [CI], 80% to 97%) and specificity of 97% (CI, 85% to 100%). Importantly, in HIV-negative subjects positive for TB by sputum smear microscopy, the test achieved a sensitivity of 80% (CI, 55% to 93%). This compares to an overall sensitivity of 33% (CI, 20% to 48%) of the Alere LF-LAM and a sensitivity of 13% (CI, 4% to 38%) in HIV-negative subjects in the same sample set. The capture antibody targets a unique 5-methylthio-d-xylofuranose (MTX)-dependent epitope in LAM that is specific to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex and shows no cross-reactivity with fast-growing mycobacteria or other bacteria. The present study provides evidence that improved assay methods and reagents lead to increased diagnostic accuracy. The results of this work have informed the development of a sensitive and specific novel LAM point-of-care assay with the aim to meet the WHO's performance target for TB diagnosis

Use of Xpert MTB/RIF in Decentralized Public Health Settings and Its Effect on Pulmonary TB and DR-TB Case Finding in India

Background Xpert MTB/RIF, the first automated molecular test for tuberculosis, is transforming the diagnostic landscape in high-burden settings. This study assessed the impact of up-front Xpert MTB/RIF testing on detection of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and rifampicin-resistant PTB (DR-TB) cases in India. Methods This demonstration study was implemented in 18 sub-district level TB programme units (TUs) in India in diverse geographic and demographic settings covering a population of 8.8 million. A baseline phase in 14 TUs captured programmatic baseline data, and an intervention phase in 18 TUs had Xpert MTB/RIF offered to all presumptive TB patients. We estimated changes in detection of TB and DR-TB, the former using binomial regression models to adjust for clustering and covariates. Results In the 14 study TUs, which participated in both phases, 10,675 and 70,556 presumptive TB patients were enrolled in the baseline and intervention phase, respectively, and 1,532 (14.4%) and 14,299 (20.3%) bacteriologically confirmed PTB cases were detected. The implementation of Xpert MTB/RIF was associated with increases in both notification rates of bacteriologically confirmed TB cases (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 1.39; CI 1.18-1.64), and proportion of bacteriological confirmed TB cases among presumptive TB cases (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.33; CI 1.6-1.52). Compared with the baseline strategy of selective drug-susceptibility testing only for PTB cases at high risk of drug-resistant TB, Xpert MTB/RIF implementation increased rifampicin resistant TB case detection by over fivefold. Among, 2765 rifampicin resistance cases detected, 1055 were retested with conventional drug susceptibility testing (DST). Positive predictive value (PPV) of rifampicin resistance detected by Xpert MTB/RIF was 94.7% (CI 91.3-98.1), in comparison to conventional DST. Conclusion Introduction of Xpert MTB/RIF as initial diagnostic test for TB in public health facilities significantly increased case-notification rates of all bacteriologically confirmed TB by 39% and rifampicin-resistant TB case notification by fivefold

Análisis de la fidelidad de sitio entre machos y hembras de ballenas jorobadas que visitan las costas de Esmeraldas (Ecuador)

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) migrate across the world’s oceans from feeding grounds in polar waters in high latitudes to breeding grounds in tropical waters. Although this species is predictable in its areas of occurrence, there are several poorly understood aspects of its migration patterns. This study aims to evaluate the differences between site fidelity of male and female humpback whales off the coast of Esmeraldas (Ecuador) for the years 2010, 2011 and 2012. A total of 57 whale skin samples were obtained using a biopsy system. For sex determination, primers SFY1204 and SFY0097 were used. A variable section of the mitochondrial DNA control region (D-loop) was amplified by PCR and sequenced to identify haplotypes. Of the humpback whale samples analyzed, it was found that 12 corresponded to females and 44 to males, and a total of 23 different haplotypes were identified. Molecular variance analysis (AMOVA) showed that males had higher site fidelity, although a significant difference was found in the haplotype frequency and nucleotide composition between males within the 2010 and 2011 seasons. These differences were not found within the seasons of 2010-2012 and 2011-2012, which can be attributed to the fact that samples of 2010 were collected in August, when males are in resident groups, while samples of 2011 were collected in July when most males can be in transit to breeding areas further north in Costa Rica and Panama. In addition, females showed no significant differences in haplotype frequency and nucleotide composition, although between female humpback whales of the 2010 and 2012 seasons, only one haplotype was shared. These results may be due to the relatively small number of female samples. These findings may suggest that although male humpback whales disperse in the tropical breeding ground from Southern Ecuador to Northern Costa Rica, they return each year to their native breeding ground. On the other hand, females probably remain in feeding sites during alternate years, to recover from the energy expenditure of gestation and lactation.La ballena jorobada (Megaptera novaeangliae) migra en todos los océanos del mundo desde sus zonas de alimentación en aguas polares a zonas de reproducción en aguas tropicales. Aunque esta especie es predecible en sus áreas de ocurrencia, son aún poco conocidos varios aspectos de la migración de la ballena jorobada. El presente trabajo tuvo como objetivo evaluar las diferencias de fidelidad de sitio entre machos y hembras de ballenas jorobadas que visitaron las costas de Esmeraldas (Ecuador) durante las temporadas 2010, 2011 y 2012. Un total de 57 muestras de piel de ballena se obtuvieron mediante un sistema de toma de biopsias. Para la determinación del sexo se utilizó los primers SFY1204 y SFY0097. Una sección variable de la región control del ADN mitocondrial (D-loop) se amplificó mediante PCR y secuenció para analizar los haplotipos presentes. De las muestras de ballenas jorobadas analizadas se determinó que 12 correspondieron a hembras y 44 a machos, y se identificó un total de 23 haplotipos diferentes. Al realizar un análisis de varianza molecular (AMOVA), se encontró que los machos presentaban una mayor fidelidad de sitio, a pesar de una diferencia notable en la frecuencia de haplotipos y composición de nucleótidos entre machos de las temporadas 2010 y 2011. Esta diferencia no se encontró entre las temporadas 2010-2012 ni 2011-2012, posiblemente porque las muestras del 2010 fueron recolectadas en Agosto, cuando los machos se quedan en grupos residentes, mientras que las muestras del 2011 fueron recolectados en Julio cuando la mayoría de machos están en tránsito hacia áreas de reproducción en el norte como Panamá y Costa Rica. Las hembras no mostraron diferencias significativas en la frecuencia de haplotipos y composición de nucleótidos, a pesar de que en las hembras de las temporadas 2010 y 2012 se compartió un solo haplotipo. Estos resultados, pueden deberse al limitado número de muestras de ballenas jorobadas hembras. Estos hallazgos pueden sugerir que a pesar de que las ballenas jorobadas machos se dispersan desde las zonas de reproducción al sur del Ecuador hasta el norte de Costa Rica, regresan cada año a su zona de reproducción originaria. Por otro lado, las hembras posiblemente permanecen en años alternos en los sitios de alimentación para recuperarse de los gastos energéticos de la gestación y lactancia

Humpback whales interfering when mammal-eating killer whales attack other species: mobbing behavior and interspecific altruism?

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) are known to interfere with attacking killer whales (Orcinus orca). To investigate why, we reviewed accounts of 115 interactions between them. Humpbacks initiated the majority of interactions (57% vs. 43%; n=72), although the killer whales were almost exclusively mammal-eating forms (MEKWs, 95%) vs. fish-eaters (5%; n=108). When MEKWs approached humpbacks (n=27), they attacked 85% of the time and targeted only calves. When humpbacks approached killer whales (n=41), 93% were MEKWs, and >87% of them were attacking or feeding on prey at the time. When humpbacks interacted with attacking MEKWs, 11% of the prey were humpbacks and 89% comprised 10 other species, including 3 cetaceans, 6 pinnipeds, and 1 teleost fish. Approaching humpbacks often harassed attacking MEKWs (>55% of 56 interactions), regardless of the prey species, which we argue was mobbing behavior. Humpback mobbing sometimes allowed MEKW prey, including nonhumpbacks, to escape. We suggest that humpbacks initially responded to vocalizations of attacking MEKWs without knowing the prey species targeted. Although reciprocity or kin selection might explain communal defense of conspecific calves, there was no apparent benefit to humpbacks continuing to interfere when other species were being attacked. Interspecific altruism, even if unintentional, could not be ruled out

Diagnostic accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra for tuberculous meningitis in HIV-infected adults: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends Xpert MTB/RIF as initial diagnostic testing for tuberculous meningitis. However, diagnosis remains difficult, with Xpert sensitivity of about 50-70% and culture sensitivity of about 60%. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of the new Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra) for tuberculous meningitis. METHODS: We prospectively obtained diagnostic cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens during screening for a trial on the treatment of HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis in Mbarara, Uganda. HIV-infected adults with suspected meningitis (eg, headache, nuchal rigidity, altered mental status) were screened consecutively at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital. We centrifuged CSF, resuspended the pellet in 2 mL of CSF, and tested 0·5 mL with mycobacteria growth indicator tube culture, 1 mL with Xpert, and cryopreserved 0·5 mL, later tested with Xpert Ultra. We assessed diagnostic performance against uniform clinical case definition or a composite reference standard of any positive CSF tuberculous test. FINDINGS: From Feb 27, 2015, to Nov 7, 2016, we prospectively evaluated 129 HIV-infected adults with suspected meningitis for tuberculosis. 23 participants were classified as probable or definite tuberculous meningitis by uniform case definition, excluding Xpert Ultra results. Xpert Ultra sensitivity was 70% (95% CI 47-87; 16 of 23 cases) for probable or definite tuberculous meningitis compared with 43% (23-66; 10/23) for Xpert and 43% (23-66; 10/23) for culture. With composite standard, we detected tuberculous meningitis in 22 (17%) of 129 participants. Xpert Ultra had 95% sensitivity (95% CI 77-99; 21 of 22 cases) for tuberculous meningitis, which was higher than either Xpert (45% [24-68]; 10/22; p=0·0010) or culture (45% [24-68]; 10/22; p=0·0034). Of 21 participants positive by Xpert Ultra, 13 were positive by culture, Xpert, or both, and eight were only positive by Xpert Ultra. Of those eight, three were categorised as probable tuberculous meningitis, three as possible tuberculous meningitis, and two as not tuberculous meningitis. Testing 6 mL or more of CSF was associated with more frequent detection of tuberculosis than with less than 6 mL (26% vs 7%; p=0·014). INTERPRETATION: Xpert Ultra detected significantly more tuberculous meningitis than did either Xpert or culture. WHO now recommends the use of Xpert Ultra as the initial diagnostic test for suspected tuberculous meningitis. FUNDING: National Institute of Neurologic Diseases and Stroke, Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, UK Medical Research Council/DfID/Wellcome Trust Global Health Trials, Doris Duke Charitable Foundation

Development of a clinical prediction model for the onset of functional decline in people aged 65-75 years: Pooled analysis of four European cohort studies

Background: Identifying those people at increased risk of early functional decline in activities of daily living (ADL) is essential for initiating preventive interventions. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for onset of functional decline in ADL in three years of follow-up in older people of 65-75 years old. Methods: Four population-based cohort studies were pooled for the analysis: ActiFE-ULM (Germany), ELSA (United Kingdom), InCHIANTI (Italy), LASA (Netherlands). Included participants were 65-75 years old at baseline and reported no limitations in functional ability in ADL at baseline. Functional decline was assessed with two items on basic ADL and three items on instrumental ADL. Participants who reported at least some limitations at three-year follow-up on any of the five items were classified as experiencing functional decline. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction model, with subsequent bootstrapping for optimism-correction. We applied internal-external cross-validation by alternating the data from the four cohort studies to assess the discrimination and calibration across the cohorts. Results: Two thousand five hundred sixty community-dwelling people were included in the analyses (mean age 69.7 ± 3.0 years old, 47.4% female) of whom 572 (22.3%) reported functional decline at three-year follow-up. The final prediction model included 10 out of 22 predictors: age, handgrip strength, gait speed, five-repeated chair stands time (non-linear association), body mass index, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arthritis, and depressive symptoms. The optimism-corrected model showed good discrimination with a C statistic of 0.72. The calibration intercept was 0.06 and the calibration slope was 1.05. Internal-external cross-validation showed consistent performance of the model across the four cohorts. Conclusions: Based on pooled cohort data analyses we were able to show that the onset of functional decline in ADL in three years in older people aged 65-75 years can be predicted by specific physical performance measures, age, body mass index, presence of depressive symptoms, and chronic conditions. The prediction model showed good discrimination and calibration, which remained stable across the four cohorts, supporting external validity of our findings

Guidance for studies evaluating the accuracy of rapid tuberculosis drug-susceptibility tests

The development and implementation of rapid molecular diagnostics for tuberculosis (TB) drug-susceptibility testing is critical to inform treatment of patients and to prevent the emergence and spread of resistance. Optimal trial planning for existing tests and those in development will be critical to rapidly gather the evidence necessary to inform World Health Organization review and to support potential policy recommendations. The evidence necessary includes an assessment of the performance for TB and resistance detection as well as an assessment of the operational characteristics of these platforms. The performance assessment should include analytical studies to confirm the limit of detection and assay ability to detect mutations conferring resistance across globally representative strains. The analytical evaluation is typically followed by multisite clinical evaluation studies to confirm diagnostic performance in sites and populations of intended use. This paper summarizes the considerations for the design of these analytical and clinical studies.FIND (Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics)https://academic.oup.com/jid2020-10-08am2019Medical Microbiolog

The impact of HIV and antiretroviral therapy on TB risk in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Children (<15 years) are vulnerable to TB disease following infection, but no systematic review or meta-analysis has quantified the effects of HIV-related immunosuppression or antiretroviral therapy (ART) on their TB incidence. OBJECTIVES: Determine the impact of HIV infection and ART on risk of incident TB disease in children. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and Embase for studies measuring HIV prevalence in paediatric TB cases ('TB cohorts') and paediatric HIV cohorts reporting TB incidence ('HIV cohorts'). Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa tool. TB cohorts with controls were meta-analysed to determine the incidence rate ratio (IRR) for TB given HIV. HIV cohort data were meta-analysed to estimate the trend in log-IRR versus CD4%, relative incidence by immunological stage and ART-associated protection from TB. RESULTS: 42 TB cohorts and 22 HIV cohorts were included. In the eight TB cohorts with controls, the IRR for TB was 7.9 (95% CI 4.5 to 13.7). HIV-infected children exhibited a reduction in IRR of 0.94 (95% credible interval: 0.83-1.07) per percentage point increase in CD4%. TB incidence was 5.0 (95% CI 4.0 to 6.0) times higher in children with severe compared with non-significant immunosuppression. TB incidence was lower in HIV-infected children on ART (HR: 0.30; 95% CI 0.21 to 0.39). Following initiation of ART, TB incidence declined rapidly over 12 months towards a HR of 0.10 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.25). CONCLUSIONS: HIV is a potent risk factor for paediatric TB, and ART is strongly protective. In HIV-infected children, early diagnosis and ART initiation reduces TB risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42014014276