146 research outputs found

    Bayesian Inference in Processing Experimental Data: Principles and Basic Applications

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    This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as: model comparison (including the automatic Ockham's Razor filter provided by the Bayesian approach); parametric inference; quantification of the uncertainty about the value of physical quantities, also taking into account systematic effects; role of marginalization; posterior characterization; predictive distributions; hierarchical modelling and hyperparameters; Gaussian approximation of the posterior and recovery of conventional methods, especially maximum likelihood and chi-square fits under well defined conditions; conjugate priors, transformation invariance and maximum entropy motivated priors; Monte Carlo estimates of expectation, including a short introduction to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.Comment: 40 pages, 2 figures, invited paper for Reports on Progress in Physic

    Lack of Knowledge of HIV Status a Major Barrier to HIV Prevention, Care and Treatment Efforts in Kenya: Results from a Nationally Representative Study

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    BACKGROUND: We analyzed HIV testing rates, prevalence of undiagnosed HIV, and predictors of testing in the Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) 2007. METHODS: KAIS was a nationally representative sero-survey that included demographic and behavioral indicators and testing for HIV, HSV-2, syphilis, and CD4 cell counts in the population aged 15-64 years. We used gender-specific multivariable regression models to identify factors independently associated with HIV testing in sexually active persons. RESULTS: Of 19,840 eligible persons, 80% consented to interviews and blood specimen collection. National HIV prevalence was 7.1% (95% CI 6.5-7.7). Among ever sexually active persons, 27.4% (95% CI 25.6-29.2) of men and 44.2% (95% CI 42.5-46.0) of women reported previous HIV testing. Among HIV-infected persons, 83.6% (95% CI 76.2-91.0) were unaware of their HIV infection. Among sexually active women aged 15-49 years, 48.7% (95% CI 46.8-50.6) had their last HIV test during antenatal care (ANC). In multivariable analyses, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for ever HIV testing in women ≄35 versus 15-19 years was 0.2 (95% CI: 0.1-0.3; p<0.0001). Other independent associations with ever HIV testing included urban residence (AOR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2-2.0; p = 0.0005, women only), highest wealth index versus the four lower quintiles combined (AOR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3-2.5; p = 0.0006, men only), and an increasing testing trend with higher levels of education. Missed opportunities for testing were identified during general or pregnancy-specific contacts with health facilities; 89% of adults said they would participate in home-based HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of HIV-infected persons in Kenya are unaware of their HIV status, posing a major barrier to HIV prevention, care and treatment efforts. New approaches to HIV testing provision and education, including home-based testing, may increase coverage. Targeted interventions should involve sexually active men, sexually active women without access to ANC, and rural and disadvantaged populations

    Who Benefits From Teams? Comparing Workers, Supervisors, and Managers

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    This paper offers a political explanation for the diffusion and sustainability of team-based work systems by examining the differential outcomes of team structures for 1200 workers, supervisors, and middle managers in a large unionized telecommunications company. Regression analyses show that participation in self-managed teams is associated with significantly higher levels of perceived discretion, employment security, and satisfaction for workers and the opposite for supervisors. Middle managers who initiate team innovations report higher employment security, but otherwise are not significantly different from their counterparts who are not involved in innovations. By contrast, there are no significant outcomes for employees associated with their participation in offline problem-solving teams

    Paradoxical co-existing base metal sulphides in the mantle: The multi-event record preserved in Loch Roag peridotite xenoliths, North Atlantic Craton

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    The role of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle as a source of precious metals for mafic magmas is contentious and, given the chalcophile (and siderophile) character of metals such as the platinum-group elements (PGE), Se, Te, Re, Cu and Au, the mobility of these metals is intimately linked with that of sulphur. Hence the nature of the host phase(s), and their age and stability in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle may be of critical importance. We investigate the sulphide mineralogy and sulphide in situ trace element compositions in base metal sulphides (BMS) in a suite of spinel lherzolite mantle xenoliths from northwest Scotland (Loch Roag, Isle of Lewis). This area is situated on the margin of the North Atlantic Craton which has been overprinted by a Palaeoproterozoic orogenic belt, and occurs in a region which has undergone magmatic events from the Palaeoproterozoic to the Eocene. We identify two populations of co-existing BMS within a single spinel lherzolite xenolith (LR80) and which can also be recognised in the peridotite xenolith suite as a whole. Both populations consist of a mixture of Fe-Ni-Cu sulphide minerals, and we distinguished between these according to BMS texture, petrographic setting (i.e., location within the xenolith in terms of ‘interstitial’ or within feldspar-spinel symplectites, as demonstrated by X-ray Computed Microtomography) and in situ trace element composition. Group A BMS are coarse, metasomatic, have low concentrations of total PGE (&lt; 40 ppm) and high (Re/Os)N (ranging 1 to 400). Group B BMS strictly occur within symplectites of spinel and feldspar, are finer-grained rounded droplets, with micron-scale PtS (cooperite), high overall total PGE concentrations (15–800 ppm) and low (Re/Os)N ranging 0.04 to 2. Group B BMS sometimes coexist with apatite, and both the Group B BMS and apatite can preserve rounded micron-scale Ca-carbonate inclusions indicative of sulphide-carbonate-phosphate immiscibility. This carbonate-phosphate metasomatic association appears to be important in forming PGE-rich sulphide liquids, although the precise mechanism for this remains obscure. As a consequence of their position within the symplectites, Group B BMS are particularly vulnerable to being incorporated in ascending mantle-derived magmas (either by melting or physical entrainment). Based on the cross-cutting relationships of the symplectites, it is possible to infer the relative ages of each metasomatic BMS population. We tally these with major tectono-magmatic events for the North Atlantic region by making comparisons to carbonatite events recorded in crustal and mantle rocks, and we suggest that the Pt-enrichment was associated with a pre-Carboniferous carbonatite episode. This method of mantle xenolith base metal sulphide documentation may ultimately permit the temporal and spatial mapping of the chalcophile metallogenic budget of the lithospheric mantle, providing a blueprint for assessing regional metallogenic potential. Abbreviations: NAC, North Atlantic Craton; GGF, Great Glen Fault; NAIP, North Atlantic Igneous Province; BPIP, British Palaeogene Igneous Province; SCLM, subcontinental lithospheric mantle; PGE, platinum-group elements; HSE, highly siderophile elements; BMS, base metal sulphid

    Breakpoint mapping of 13 large parkin deletions/duplications reveals an exon 4 deletion and an exon 7 duplication as founder mutations

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    Early-onset Parkinson’s disease (EOPD) has been associated with recessive mutations in parkin (PARK2). About half of the mutations found in parkin are genomic rearrangements, i.e., large deletions or duplications. Although many different rearrangements have been found in parkin before, the exact breakpoints involving these rearrangements are rarely mapped. In the present study, the exact breakpoints of 13 different parkin deletions/duplications, detected in 13 patients out of a total screened sample of 116 EOPD patients using Multiple Ligation Probe Amplification (MLPA) analysis, were mapped using real time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR), long-range PCR and sequence analysis. Deletion/duplication-specific PCR tests were developed as a rapid and low cost tool to confirm MLPA results and to test family members or patients with similar parkin deletions/duplications. Besides several different deletions, an exon 3 deletion, an exon 4 deletion and an exon 7 duplication were found in multiple families. Haplotype analysis in four families showed that a common haplotype of 1.2 Mb could be distinguished for the exon 7 duplication and a common haplotype of 6.3 Mb for the deletion of exon 4. These findings suggest common founder effects for distinct large rearrangements in parkin

    Early Gnathostome Phylogeny Revisited: Multiple Method Consensus

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    This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.A series of recent studies recovered consistent phylogenetic scenarios of jawed vertebrates, such as the paraphyly of placoderms with respect to crown gnathostomes, and antiarchs as the sister group of all other jawed vertebrates. However, some of the hylogenetic relationships within the group have remained controversial, such as the positions of Entelognathus, ptyctodontids, and the Guiyu-lineage that comprises Guiyu, Psarolepis and Achoania. The revision of the dataset in a recent study reveals a modified phylogenetic hypothesis, which shows that some of these phylogenetic conflicts were sourced from a few inadvertent miscodings. The interrelationships of early gnathostomes are addressed based on a combined new dataset with 103 taxa and 335 characters, which is the most comprehensive morphological dataset constructed to date. This dataset is investigated in a phylogenetic context using maximum parsimony (MP), Bayesian inference (BI) and maximum likelihood (ML) approaches in an attempt to explore the consensus and incongruence between the hypotheses of early gnathostome interrelationships recovered from different methods. Our findings consistently corroborate the paraphyly of placoderms, all `acanthodians' as a paraphyletic stem group of chondrichthyans, Entelognathus as a stem gnathostome, and the Guiyu-lineage as stem sarcopterygians. The incongruence using different methods is less significant than the consensus, and mainly relates to the positions of the placoderm Wuttagoonaspis, the stem chondrichthyan Ramirosuarezia, and the stem osteichthyan LophosteusÐthe taxa that are either poorly known or highly specialized in character complement. Given that the different performances of each phylogenetic approach, our study provides an empirical case that the multiple phylogenetic analyses of morphological data are mutually complementary rather than redundant
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