Estimating limits from Poisson counting data using Dempster--Shafer analysis

We present a Dempster--Shafer (DS) approach to estimating limits from Poisson counting data with nuisance parameters. Dempster--Shafer is a statistical framework that generalizes Bayesian statistics. DS calculus augments traditional probability by allowing mass to be distributed over power sets of the event space. This eliminates the Bayesian dependence on prior distributions while allowing the incorporation of prior information when it is available. We use the Poisson Dempster--Shafer model (DSM) to derive a posterior DSM for the ``Banff upper limits challenge'' three-Poisson model. The results compare favorably with other approaches, demonstrating the utility of the approach. We argue that the reduced dependence on priors afforded by the Dempster--Shafer framework is both practically and theoretically desirable.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00-AOAS223 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Linked Markov sources: Modeling outcome-dependent social processes

Many social processes are adaptive in the sense that the process changes as a result of previous outcomes. Data on such processes may come in the form of categorical time series. First, the authors propose a class of Markov Source models that embody such adaptation. Second, the authors discuss new methods to evaluate the fit of such models. Third, the authors apply these models and methods to data on a social process that is a preeminent example of an adaptive process: (encoded) conversation as arises in structured interviews. © 2007 Sage Publications

Facilitating Memory for Novel Characters by Reducing Neural Repetition Suppression in the Left Fusiform Cortex

Gui Xue is with Beijing Normal University and University of Southern California, Leilei Mei is with Beijing Normal University and University of California Irvine, Chuansheng Chen is with University of California Irvine, Zhong-Lin Lu is with University of Southern California, Russell A. Poldrack is with UT Austin, Qi Dong is with Beijing Normal University.Background -- The left midfusiform and adjacent regions have been implicated in processing and memorizing familiar words, yet its role in memorizing novel characters has not been well understood. Methodology/Principal Findings -- Using functional MRI, the present study examined the hypothesis that the left midfusiform is also involved in memorizing novel characters and spaced learning could enhance the memory by enhancing the left midfusiform activity during learning. Nineteen native Chinese readers were scanned while memorizing the visual form of 120 Korean characters that were novel to the subjects. Each character was repeated four times during learning. Repetition suppression was manipulated by using two different repetition schedules: massed learning and spaced learning, pseudo-randomly mixed within the same scanning session. Under the massed learning condition, the four repetitions were consecutive (with a jittered inter-repetition interval to improve the design efficiency). Under the spaced learning condition, the four repetitions were interleaved with a minimal inter-repetition lag of 6 stimuli. Spaced learning significantly improved participants' performance during the recognition memory test administered one hour after the scan. Stronger left midfusiform and inferior temporal gyrus activities during learning (summed across four repetitions) were associated with better memory of the characters, based on both within- and cross-subjects analyses. Compared to massed learning, spaced learning significantly reduced neural repetition suppression and increased the overall activities in these regions, which were associated with better memory for novel characters. Conclusions/Significance -- These results demonstrated a strong link between cortical activity in the left midfusiform and memory for novel characters, and thus challenge the visual word form area (VWFA) hypothesis. Our results also shed light on the neural mechanisms of the spacing effect in memorizing novel characters.This study was supported by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University, the National Science Foundation (grant numbers BCS 0823624 and BCS 0823495), the National Institute of Health (grant number HD057884-01A2), and the 111 Project of China (B07008). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Psycholog

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe