Climate Change in New York State Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 (Responding to Climate Change in New York State)

In its 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a greater than 95 percent chance that rising global average temperatures, observed since the mid-20th century, are primarily due to human activities. As had been predicted in the 1800s, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are now approximately 40 percent higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, have increased rapidly as well

Future projections of extreme precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for climate adaptation planning in New York State

A set of future extreme precipitation probabilities are developed for New York State based on different downscaling approaches and climate model projections. Based on nearly 50 downscaling method-climate model combinations, percent differences are computed between simulated extreme precipitation amounts for one historical (1970–1999) and three future (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) time periods. These percent change factors are then applied to the observed extremes to estimate future precipitation extremes. The results are presented to users via an interactive website (http://ny-idf-projections.nrcc.cornell.edu). As the engineering community is the primary user, the website displays intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) graphs depicting the: 1) mean projected extreme precipitation intensity, 2) range of future model projections, 3) distribution of observed extreme precipitation intensities, 4) confidence intervals about the observed values. One-hundred-year recurrence interval precipitation amounts exhibit a median increase of between 5 and 10% across the state in the 2010–2039 period regardless of greenhouse gas concentration. By the 2040–2069 period, the median increase is on the order of 10–20% for the high concentration case (RCP 8.5), but remains below 10% if concentrations are lower (RCP 4.5). At the end of the century, all downscaling method climate model combinations indicate increases, with a median change of between 20 and 30% in the case of high concentrations

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region’s temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population

Toward Regional Climate Services The Role of NOAA’s Regional Climate Centers

A comprehensive national climate services strategy requires the infrastructure, operational services, and applied research activities that have characterized the Regional Climate Center Program since its inception

Season Drought Between

The recent dry conditions over the northern Great Plains have caused much concern about rapidly changing climatic patterns. Regional climate records are of limited length, generally less than 100 years, and therefore are insufficient to identify periodic fluctuations in climate with confidence. However, these data may be investigated to determine if trends exist in average annual precipitation and temperature records. The purpose of this study was two-fold: first, to identify drought periods based on precipitation records and examine their variability across the state, and second, to identify 10 - and 20-year fluctuations in average growing season precipitation and temperature. The climatic data used in this study encompassed stations in the Northwest, Southeast, and Black Hills Divisions of South Dakota. There were 8 to 14 stations used in each division, with records extending from the early 1900's. Only growing season (April - September) drought conditions were considered. Individua..

Safety and efficacy of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to reduce ileus after colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after elective colorectal surgery, and is associated with increased adverse events and prolonged hospital stay. The aim was to assess the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) for reducing ileus after surgery. Methods: A prospective multicentre cohort study was delivered by an international, student- and trainee-led collaborative group. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The primary outcome was time to gastrointestinal recovery, measured using a composite measure of bowel function and tolerance to oral intake. The impact of NSAIDs was explored using Cox regression analyses, including the results of a centre-specific survey of compliance to enhanced recovery principles. Secondary safety outcomes included anastomotic leak rate and acute kidney injury. Results: A total of 4164 patients were included, with a median age of 68 (i.q.r. 57\u201375) years (54\ub79 per cent men). Some 1153 (27\ub77 per cent) received NSAIDs on postoperative days 1\u20133, of whom 1061 (92\ub70 per cent) received non-selective cyclo-oxygenase inhibitors. After adjustment for baseline differences, the mean time to gastrointestinal recovery did not differ significantly between patients who received NSAIDs and those who did not (4\ub76 versus 4\ub78 days; hazard ratio 1\ub704, 95 per cent c.i. 0\ub796 to 1\ub712; P = 0\ub7360). There were no significant differences in anastomotic leak rate (5\ub74 versus 4\ub76 per cent; P = 0\ub7349) or acute kidney injury (14\ub73 versus 13\ub78 per cent; P = 0\ub7666) between the groups. Significantly fewer patients receiving NSAIDs required strong opioid analgesia (35\ub73 versus 56\ub77 per cent; P < 0\ub7001). Conclusion: NSAIDs did not reduce the time for gastrointestinal recovery after colorectal surgery, but they were safe and associated with reduced postoperative opioid requirement

Safety of hospital discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after colorectal surgery and is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. Identifying features of normal bowel recovery and the appropriateness for hospital discharge is challenging. This study explored the safety of hospital discharge before the return of bowel function. Methods: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was undertaken across an international collaborative network. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The main outcome of interest was readmission to hospital within 30 days of surgery. The impact of discharge timing according to the return of bowel function was explored using multivariable regression analysis. Other outcomes were postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery, measured using the Clavien–Dindo classification system. Results: A total of 3288 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 301 (9·2 per cent) were discharged before the return of bowel function. The median duration of hospital stay for patients discharged before and after return of bowel function was 5 (i.q.r. 4–7) and 7 (6–8) days respectively (P < 0·001). There were no significant differences in rates of readmission between these groups (6·6 versus 8·0 per cent; P = 0·499), and this remained the case after multivariable adjustment for baseline differences (odds ratio 0·90, 95 per cent c.i. 0·55 to 1·46; P = 0·659). Rates of postoperative complications were also similar in those discharged before versus after return of bowel function (minor: 34·7 versus 39·5 per cent; major 3·3 versus 3·4 per cent; P = 0·110). Conclusion: Discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery appears to be safe in appropriately selected patients

Safety of hospital discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery

Background Ileus is common after colorectal surgery and is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. Identifying features of normal bowel recovery and the appropriateness for hospital discharge is challenging. This study explored the safety of hospital discharge before the return of bowel function. Methods A prospective, multicentre cohort study was undertaken across an international collaborative network. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The main outcome of interest was readmission to hospital within 30 days of surgery. The impact of discharge timing according to the return of bowel function was explored using multivariable regression analysis. Other outcomes were postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery, measured using the Clavien-Dindo classification system. Results A total of 3288 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 301 (9 center dot 2 per cent) were discharged before the return of bowel function. The median duration of hospital stay for patients discharged before and after return of bowel function was 5 (i.q.r. 4-7) and 7 (6-8) days respectively (P < 0 center dot 001). There were no significant differences in rates of readmission between these groups (6 center dot 6 versus 8 center dot 0 per cent; P = 0 center dot 499), and this remained the case after multivariable adjustment for baseline differences (odds ratio 0 center dot 90, 95 per cent c.i. 0 center dot 55 to 1 center dot 46; P = 0 center dot 659). Rates of postoperative complications were also similar in those discharged before versus after return of bowel function (minor: 34 center dot 7 versus 39 center dot 5 per cent; major 3 center dot 3 versus 3 center dot 4 per cent; P = 0 center dot 110). Conclusion Discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery appears to be safe in appropriately selected patients