Inferencia Ecológica sobre las Elecciones Ecuatorianas en Febrero del 2013

In the Ecuadorian electoral contest of February 2013, the Alianza País party won the presidency of the republic in the first round with more than 50% voter support, consolidating itself as the country’s first political force and causing international upheaval because third consecutive time Rafael Correa obtains this possition. The official results show us the aggregated support information in each room without distinction of individual behavior, but if we divide the electorate into classes (sex, age, economic status, etc.) we can ask what amount of support did Alianza País get for each class? To answer this question we can make use of the ecological inference that allows us to find statistically the proportions of support of each class to certain political party in particular. In this paper we use the ecological inference for 2x2 and RxC contingency tables by Bayesian hierarchical models Binomial-Beta and Multinomial-Dirichlet that rely on MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) computational techniques which infer the desired proportions.En la contienda electoral ecuatoriana de febrero 2013 el partido Alianza País gana la Presidencia de la República en primera vuelta con más del 50% de apoyo de los votantes, consolidándose como la primera fuerza política del país y causando revuelo a nivel internacional ya que por tercera vez consecutiva Rafael Correa obtiene dicho cargo. Los resultados oficiales nos muestran la información de apoyo agregada en cada recinto sin distinción de comportamiento individual, pero si dividimos el electorado en clases (sexo, edad, condición económica, etc) nos podemos preguntar: que cantidad de apoyo obtuvo Alianza País por cada clase? Para responder ésta cuestión podemos hacer uso de la inferencia ecológica que nos permite encontrar estadísticamente las proporciones de apoyo de cada clase a cierto partido político en particular. En éste trabajo usamos la inferencia ecológica para tablas de contingencia 2x2 y RxC por medio de modelos jerárquicos bayesianos Binomial-Beta y Multinomial-Dirichlet que se apoyan en técnicas computacionales MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) las cuales infieren las proporciones buscadas

COVID-19, Fake News, and Vaccines: Should Regulation Be Implemented?

[EN] We analysed issues concerning the establishment of compulsory vaccination against COVID-19, as well as the role of misinformation as a disincentive-especially when published by health professionals-and citizen acceptance of measures in this regard. Data from different surveys revealed a high degree of hesitation rather than outright opposition to vaccines. The most frequent complaint related to the COVID-19 vaccination was the fear of side effects. Within the Spanish and European legislative framework, both compulsory vaccination and government regulation of FN (Fake News) appear to be feasible options, counting on sufficient legal support, which could be reinforced by additional amendment. However, following current trends of good governance, policymakers must have public legitimation. Rather than compulsory COVID-19 vaccination, an approach based on education and truthful information, persuading the population of the benefits of a vaccine on a voluntary basis, is recommended. Disagreements between health professionals are positive, but they should be resolved following good practice and the procedures of the code of ethics. Furthermore, citizens do not support the involvement of government authorities in the direct control of news. Collaboration with the media and other organizations should be used instead.Marco-Franco, JE.; Pita-Barros, P.; Vivas-Orts, D.; González-De Julián, S.; Vivas-Consuelo, D. (2021). COVID-19, Fake News, and Vaccines: Should Regulation Be Implemented?. International Journal of Environmental research and Public Health (Online). 18(2):1-11. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18020744S111182Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2020https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-06/DNR_2020_FINAL.pdfMerck CEO Ken Frazier Discusses a COVID Cure, Racism, and Why Leaders Need to Walk the Talkhttps://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-speaks-about-a-covid-cure-racism-and-why-leaders-need-to-walk-the-talkDe las Heras-Pedrosa, C., Rando-Cueto, D., Jambrino-Maldonado, C., & Paniagua-Rojano, F. J. (2020). Exploring the Social Media on the Communication Professionals in Public Health. Spanish Official Medical Colleges Case Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(13), 4859. doi:10.3390/ijerph17134859Page, B. I., & Shapiro, R. Y. (1983). Effects of Public Opinion on Policy. American Political Science Review, 77(1), 175-190. doi:10.2307/1956018Public Opinion Surveys as Input to Administrative Reformhttp://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=CCNM/SIGMA/PUMA(98)48&docLanguage=EnJacobs, L. R. (1992). The Recoil Effect: Public Opinion and Policymaking in the U.S. and Britain. Comparative Politics, 24(2), 199. doi:10.2307/422278The Statistics Portal for Market Data, Market Research and Market Studieshttps://www.statista.com/Flash Eurobarometer 464: Fake News and Disinformation Onlinehttps://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/2d79b85a-4cea-11e8-be1d-01aa75ed71a1/language-enState of Vaccine Confidence in the EU 2018https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/vaccination/docs/2018_vaccine_confidence_en.pdfGlobal Attitudes on a COVID-19 Vaccine, 2020https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-09/global-attitudes-on-a-covid-19-vaccine-ipsos-survey-for-wef-2020.pdfEffects and Consequences of the Coronavirus (II): Advance Results. Tabulation by Sociodemographic Variableshttp://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3302marMT_A.pdfNeumann-Böhme, S., Varghese, N. E., Sabat, I., Barros, P. P., Brouwer, W., van Exel, J., … Stargardt, T. (2020). Once we have it, will we use it? A European survey on willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19. The European Journal of Health Economics, 21(7), 977-982. doi:10.1007/s10198-020-01208-6Gallup-Knight Foundation: Americans see Media As Key to Democracy But Increasingly Don’t Trust Ithttps://knightfoundation.org/press/releases/gallup-knight-foundation-report-americans-see-media-as-key-to-democracy-but-increasingly-don-t-trust-it/“Fake News” Threat to Media; Editorial Decisions, Outside Actors at Faulthttps://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_040218/Insider NJ Monmouth National—America Takes Sides in Social Media Warhttps://www.insidernj.com/press-release/monmouth-national-america-takes-sides-social-media-war/International Study of Valueshttps://www.fbbva.es/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Presentacion_Estudio_Valores_2019.pdfCoronavirus Special Reportshttps://www.agcom.it/osservatorio-sulla-disinformazione-onlineWhich Media Are Responsible for Spreading False or Inaccurate Information Regarding the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Its Impact?https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111877/opinions-on-fake-news-sources-about-the-coronavirus-by-macro-region-italy/Covid-19 News and Information: Consumption and Attitudeshttps://www.ofcom.org.uk/research-and-data/tv-radio-and-on-demand/news-media/coronavirus-news-consumption-attitudes-behaviourHow to Report Misinformation Onlinehttps://www.who.int/campaigns/connecting-the-world-to-combat-coronavirus/how-to-report-misinformation-online?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIj_bv-tqx7QIV5hoGAB1REwetEAAYASAAEgLpjPD_BwECovid-19 Pandemichttps://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19-pandemicFighting Disinformationhttps://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/fighting-disinformation_enTackling Online Disinformationhttps://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/tackling-online-disinformationFunded Projects in the Fight against Disinformationhttps://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/fighting-disinformation/funded-projects-fight-against-disinformation_enSocial Observatory for Disinformation and Social Media Analysishttps://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/825469European Court of Human Rights European Convention on Human Rights; 1950 with Ammendshttps://www.echr.coe.int/documents/convention_eng.pdfThe Legal Framework to Address “Fake News”: Possible Policy Actions at the EU Levelhttps://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2018/619013/IPOL_IDA(2018)619013_EN.pdfCoronavirus: EU Strengthens Action to Tackle Disinformationhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1006EEAS Special Report Update: Short Assessment of Narratives and Disinformation around the Covid-19 Pandemic (Update May–November)https://euvsdisinfo.eu/eeas-special-report-update-short-assessment-of-narratives-and-disinformation-around-the-covid-19-pandemic-update-may-november/Fighting Disinformation—COVID-19 Vaccineshttps://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/fighting-disinformation/Calling of an International Conference on Freedom of Informationhttps://digitallibrary.un.org/record/209774?ln=esUniversal Declaration of Human Rightshttps://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/217(III)WMA Declaration of Genevahttps://www.wma.net/policies-post/wma-declaration-of-geneva/Hendriks. (1997). Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Dignity of the Human Being with Regard to the Application of Biology and Medicine: Convention on Human Rights and Biomedicine. European Journal of Health Law, 4(1), 89-100. doi:10.1163/15718099720521896Code of Medical Ethics Guide to Medical Ethicshttps://www.cgcom.es/sites/default/files/codigo_deontologia_medica.pdfCase-law STS 1639/2016—ECLI: ES:TS:2016:1639http://www.poderjudicial.es/search/AN/openCDocument/f9caf3b37c843044ddaedeee43551672cfe231e21f03965aCharter of Fundamental Rights of the European Unionhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/treaty/char_2012/ojRoope, L. S. J., Buckell, J., Becker, F., Candio, P., Violato, M., Sindelar, J. L., … Clarke, P. M. (2020). How Should a Safe and Effective COVID-19 Vaccine be Allocated? Health Economists Need to be Ready to Take the Baton. PharmacoEconomics - Open, 4(4), 557-561. doi:10.1007/s41669-020-00228-5Ding, Y., Du, X., Li, Q., Zhang, M., Zhang, Q., Tan, X., & Liu, Q. (2020). Risk perception of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its related factors among college students in China during quarantine. PLOS ONE, 15(8), e0237626. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0237626Dryhurst, S., Schneider, C. R., Kerr, J., Freeman, A. L. J., Recchia, G., van der Bles, A. M., … van der Linden, S. (2020). Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world. Journal of Risk Research, 23(7-8), 994-1006. doi:10.1080/13669877.2020.1758193Wise, T., Zbozinek, T. D., Michelini, G., Hagan, C. C., & Mobbs, D. (2020). Changes in risk perception and self-reported protective behaviour during the first week of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Royal Society Open Science, 7(9), 200742. doi:10.1098/rsos.200742Olivares-Delgado, F., Iglesias-Sánchez, P. P., Benlloch-Osuna, M. T., Heras-Pedrosa, C. de las, & Jambrino-Maldonado, C. (2020). Resilience and Anti-Stress during COVID-19 Isolation in Spain: An Analysis through Audiovisual Spots. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(23), 8876. doi:10.3390/ijerph17238876Bavel, J. J. V., Baicker, K., Boggio, P. S., Capraro, V., Cichocka, A., Cikara, M., … Willer, R. (2020). Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(5), 460-471. doi:10.1038/s41562-020-0884-zBaldassarre, A., Giorgi, G., Alessio, F., Lulli, L., Arcangeli, G., & Mucci, N. (2020). Stigma and Discrimination (SAD) at the Time of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(17), 6341. doi:10.3390/ijerph17176341Betsch, C. (2020). How behavioural science data helps mitigate the COVID-19 crisis. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(5), 438-438. doi:10.1038/s41562-020-0866-

Análisis del concepto de cultura evidenciado en la agenda del suplemento cultural Gaceta del Periódico el País en los años 1985, 2000 y 2015

Planteamiento del problema El primer rastro de contenido cultural en los periódicos se dio simultáneamente con su creación. Desde un primer momento hubo una sección dedicada a la cultura; sin embargo, esta no tenía el mismo peso que tenían las secciones políticas o económicas. De esta manera, en algún momento de la historia las secciones especializadas se desprendieron de las páginas de los periódicos como tal para entrar a ser parte de una sección específica denominada suplemento. Rivera (1995) referencia varios de los suplementos culturales europeos que tuvieron un papel fundamental en la creación del concepto de periodismo cultural como lo son The Times Literary Suplement, que abrió una publicación especializada con el objetivo de publicar las reseñas bibliográficas de manera más amplia; Nouvelle Revue Francaise, de 1908, y La Revista de Occidente, de Madrid. Las dinámicas en Latinoamérica fueron muy similares pues en gran medida estuvieron influenciadas por la forma de actuar de los medios europeos. A mediados del siglo XIX, los periódicos le dieron un espacio a las páginas literarias: El Neogranadino (1848), de Manuel Ancízar; El Porvenir (1859), y La América (1873), de José María Quijano, publicaban un semanario literario especial. Por esa misma época, periódicos como La Luz y El Correo de las Aldeas publicaban contenidos que tenían que ver con la literatura local y universal; además, adicionaban novelas de folletín, donde cada semana se publicaba un capítulo y se avanzaba hasta llegar al desenlace final (Melo, 2001). En Colombia, algunos de los periódicos reconocidos actualmente realizaban acciones equivalentes: El Tiempo, por ejemplo, dedicaba un espacio a la poesía y a temas que tenían que ver con las costumbres. Igualmente, en las páginas literarias de El Espectador se publicaron los primeros trabajos de Gabriel García Márquez e incluso el primer capítulo de Cien años de soledad. De esta forma, siguiendo con el modelo francés del folletín, el periódico se convirtió en un buen medio para divulgar novelas de autores extranjeros y nacionales (Cacua, 1968)

Derivada Conformable de Khalil y sus aplicaciones a modelos de crecimiento poblacional y enfriamiento de los cuerpos

The objective of this article is to develop some results on conformable fractional derivatives, specifically the one known as Khalil’s conformable fractional derivative. Its origin, properties, comparisons with other fractional derivatives and some applications on population grow and Newton law of cooling models are studied.El objetivo de este artículo es desarrollar algunos resultados sobre derivadas fraccionarias conformes, específicamente la conocida como derivada fraccionaria conforme de Khalil. Se estudia su origen, propiedades, comparaciones con otras derivadas fraccionarias y algunas aplicaciones en modelos de crecimiento poblacionales y la ley de enfriamiento de Newton

Diseño del sistema de control de un dispositivo mecatrónico de rehabilitación de mano

El propósito de este trabajo es proporcionar los conceptos básicos para la aplicación de la electromiografía en entornos de bioingeniería, en particular para controlar una prótesis robótica.Departamento de Ingeniería de Sistemas y AutomáticaGrado en Ingeniería en Electrónica Industrial y Automátic

Budget Impact Analysis of Brivaracetam Adjunctive Therapy for Partial-Onset Epileptic Seizures in Valencia Community, Spain

[EN] Background and Objective More than 30% of patients with epilepsy have inadequate control of seizures with drug therapy. The goal of this study is to determine the budget impact (BI) of the introduction of brivaracetam to the portfolio of approved drugs in Spain as adjunctive therapy for the treatment of partial-onset epilepsy in patients over 16 years old with a 5-year time horizon in the Valencia Community, a Spanish region with a population of 5 million. Methods The BI model compares the pharmaceutical expenditure on antiepileptics in two scenarios: with and without brivaracetam. It assumes that the introduction and increased use of brivaracetam will lead to a proportional decrease in consumption of coexisting adjunctive antiepileptics and calculates the evolution of the consumption of brivaracetam over 5 years (2016-2020). The model was designed from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. Data on the candidate population, consumption of antiepileptics, market share and pharmaceutical expenditure were obtained from real-world data. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the set of variables involved in the evolution of costs using a Monte-Carlo simulation. Results The model estimates that the target population eligible for adjunctive antiepileptics will hold at around 2352 between 2016 and 2020. Annual expenditure on antiepileptics is approximately a,notsign3.6 million. The number of patients eligible for treatment with brivaracetam would increase from 42 to 179 and annual savings of 0.09-0.37% would be created, representing a,notsign 41,873 over 5 years (0.23% of the total budget). The sensitivity analysis corroborates that the probability of achieving savings with brivaracetam is around 84%. Conclusions Brivaracetam is a therapeutic alternative that allows savings for the health system in patients with non-controlled epilepsy in monotherapy, having a fixed, predictable annual cost (independent of dose) from the first day of treatment as the lack of need for titration means the patient is within a range of therapeutic doses from the first dose.This work was supported partially by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III-Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad and the European Union (FEDER [Fonds Europeen de Developpement Economique et Regional (European Fund for Economic and Regional Development)] funds)-FIS PI12/00037.Barrachina Martínez, I.; Vivas-Consuelo, D.; Piera-Balbastre, A. (2018). Budget Impact Analysis of Brivaracetam Adjunctive Therapy for Partial-Onset Epileptic Seizures in Valencia Community, Spain. Clinical Drug Investigation. 38(4):353-363. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40261-017-0615-zS353363384World Health Organization (2017). Epilepsy fact sheet. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs999/en/. Accessed 12 Jan 2016.Fiest KM, Sauro KM, Wiebe S, Patten SB, Kwon CS, Dykeman J, et al. Prevalence and incidence of epilepsy. Neurology. 2017;88:296–303.Berg AT, Berkovic SF, Brodie MJ, et al. Revised terminology and concepts for organization of seizures and epilepsies: report of the ILAE Commission on Classification and Terminology, 2005–2009. Epilepsia. 2010;51:676–85.García-Ramos R, Pastor AG, Masjuan J, Sánchez C, Gil A. FEEN report on epilepsy in Spain [in Spanish]. Neurologia. 2011;26:548–55.Brodie MJ. Practical use of newer antiepileptic drugs as adjunctive therapy in focal epilepsy. CNS Drugs. 2015;29:893–904.Kwan P, Brodie MJ. Early identification of refractory epilepsy. N Engl J Med. 2000;342:314–9.Sánchez-álvarez JC, Gil-Nagel A, Casas-Fernández C, Mauri-Llerda JA, Salas-Puig J, Sancho-Rieger J. Drug-resistant epilepsy: current recommendations for diagnosis and treatment in Spain. Neurologia. 2012;27:575–84.Fazel S, Wolf A, Långström N, Newton CR, Lichtenstein P. Premature mortality in epilepsy and the role of psychiatric comorbidity: a total population study. Lancet. 2013;382(9905):1646–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60899-5.Villanueva V, Girón JM, Martín J, Lahuerta J, Dolz M, Cuesta M. Quality of life and economic impact of refractory epilepsy in Spain: the ESPERA study. Neurologia. 2013;28:195–204.Sancho J, Pena P, Rufo M, Palacios G, Masramon X, Rejas J, LINCE Study Collaborative Group. Health and non-health care resources use in the management of adult outpatients with drug-resistant epilepsy in Spain: a cost-of-illness study (LINCE study). Epilepsy Res. 2008;81:176–187.Laxer KD, Trinka E, Hirsch LJ, Cendes F, Langfitt J, Delanty N, et al. The consequences of refractory epilepsy and its treatment. Epilepsy Behav. 2014;37:59–70.Duncan JS, Duncan JS, Sander JW, Sisodiya SM, Walker MC. Adult epilepsy. Lancet. 2006;367:1087–100.European Medicines Agency (EMA). EPARs for authorised medicinal products for human use—Stelara. 2016. http://www.emea.europa.eu/humandocs/Humans/EPAR/stelara/stelara.htm. Accessed 29 Nov 2017.Biton V, Berkovic SF, Abou-Khalil B, Sperling MR, Johnson ME, Lu S. Brivaracetam as adjunctive treatment for uncontrolled partial epilepsy in adults: a phase III randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Epilepsia. 2014;55:57–66.Ferlazzo E, Russo E, Mumoli L, Sueri C, Gasparini S, Palleria C, et al. Profile of brivaracetam and its potential in the treatment of epilepsy. Neuropsychiatr Dis Treat. 2015;11:2967–73.Sullivan SD, Mauskopf JA, Augustovski F, Caro JJ, Lee KM, Minchin M, et al. Budget impact analysis—principles of good practice: report of the ISPOR 2012 Budget Impact Analysis Good Practice II Task Force. Value Health. 2014;17:5–14.European Medicines Agency. Vimpat. Summary of product characteristics. 2016. http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_Product_Information/human/000863/WC500050338.pdf. Accessed 27 Nov 2017.European Medicines Agency. Eslicarbazepine. Summary of product characteristics. 2017. http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_Product_Information/human/000988/WC500047225.pdf. Accessed 27 Nov 2017.European Medicines Agency. Perampanel. Summary of product characteristics. 2012. http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_Summary_for_the_public/human/002434/WC500130840.pdf. Accessed 29 Nov 2017.European Medicines Agency. Retigabine. Summary of product characteristics. 2016;1–26. http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_Product_Information/human/001245/WC500104835.pdf. Accessed 29 Nov 2017.European Medicines Agency Zonisamide. Summary of product characteristics. 2017. http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_Product_Information/human/004127/WC500204305.pdf. Accessed 29 Nov 2017.BOE (2010) Real Decreto-Ley 8/2010, de 20 de mayo, por el que se adoptan medidas extraordinarias para la reducción del déficit público. Boe 20/5/2010:45070–45128. https://www.boe.es/diario_boe/txt.php?id=BOE-A-2010-8228. Accessed 29 Nov 2017.Farmacéuticos CG de CO de BOTfarma. BOT Base de datos del medicamento. https://botplusweb.portalfarma.com/. Accessed 29 Nov 2017.AEMPS. Informe de Posicionamiento Terapéutico de brivaracetam (Briviact®) en epilepsia. 2017;1–7. https://www.aemps.gob.es/medicamentosUsoHumano/informesPublicos/docs/IPT-brivaracetam-Briviact-epilepsia.pdf. Accessed 29 Nov 2017.Belén Ferro-Rey M, Roca-Cusachs A, Sicras-Mainar A, Álvarez-Martín C, de Salas-Cansado M. Fixed drug combinations in hypertension: a budget impact analysis for the spanish health system on the marketing of a fixed combination of olmesartan/amlodipine [in Spanish]. Aten Primaria. 2011;43:345–55.Simoens S. Pharmacoeconomics of anti-epileptic drugs as adjunctive therapy for refractory epilepsy. Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res. 2010;10(3):309–15.Borghs S, Thieffry S, Noack-Rink M, Dedeken P, Hong LS, Byram L, et al. Health care cost associated with the use of enzyme-inducing and non-enzyme-active antiepileptic drugs in the UK: a long-term retrospective matched cohort study. BMC Neurol. 2017;17:59

Calculated Forecast for Technical Obsolescence in Computerised Tomography Equipment

Elsevier user license: Permitted: For non-commercial purposes: Read, print & download Text & data mine Translate the article Not Permitted: Reuse portions or extracts from the article in other works Redistribute or republish the final article Sell or re-use for commercial purposesTo estimate the useful life of Computerised Tomography Equipment (CT)Reyes Santias, F.; Vivas Consuelo, DJJ.; Ramos, M. (2012). Calculated Forecast for Technical Obsolescence in Computerised Tomography Equipment. Value in Health. 15(7):A318-A318. doi:10.1016/j.jval.2012.08.710SA318A31815

Predicting healthcare expenditure by multimorbidity groups

[EN] Objectives: This article has two main purposes. Firstly, to model the integrated healthcare expenditure for the entire population of a health district in Spain, according to multimorbidity, using Clinical Risk Groups (CRG). Secondly, to show how the predictive model is applied to the allocation of health budgets. Methods: The database used contains the information of 156,811 inhabitants in a Valencian Community health district in 2013. The variables were: age, sex, CRG's main health statuses, severity level, and healthcare expenditure. The two-part models were used for predicting healthcare expenditure. From the coefficients of the selected model, the relative weights of each group were calculated to set a case-mix in each health district. Results: Models based on multimorbidity-related variables better explained integrated healthcare expenditure. In the first part of the two-part models, a logit model was used, while the positive costs were modelled with a log-linear OLS regression. An adjusted R-2 of 46-49% between actual and predicted values was obtained. With the weights obtained by CRG, the differences found with the case-mix of each health district proved most useful for budgetary purposes. Conclusions: The expenditure models allowed improved budget allocations between health districts by taking into account morbidity, as opposed to budgeting based solely on population size.This work was supported by "Instituto de Salud Carlos III - Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad" and the European Union (FEDER funds) - FIS PI12/00037.Caballer-Tarazona, V.; Guadalajara Olmeda, MN.; Vivas-Consuelo, D. (2019). Predicting healthcare expenditure by multimorbidity groups. Health Policy. 123(4):427-434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2019.02.002S427434123

High-Chromium (9-12Cr) Steels: Creep Enhancement by Conventional Thermomechanical Treatments

There is a worldwide need to develop materials for advanced power plants with steam temperatures of 700°C and above which have the capacity to achieve high efficiency and low CO2 emissions. This request involves the development of new grades of 9-12Cr heat-resistant steels, with a nanostructured martensite, mainly focusing on the long-term creep rupture strength of base metal and welded joints, creep-fatigue properties, and microstructure evolution during exposure at such elevated temperatures. The main shortcomings of actual 9-12Cr high-chromium steels are that the creep resistance is not enough to fulfill the engineering requirements at temperatures higher than 600°C and the material undergoes a cyclic softening. Creep strength at high temperature could be improved by a microstructural optimization through nano-precipitation, guided by computational thermodynamics, and thermomechanical control process optimization