Achieving Long-term Energy, Transport and Climate Objectives: Multidimensional Scenario Analysis and Modeling Within a Systems Level Framework

Scenario analysis tools have emerged as a useful way to inform the policy debate by envisioning the potential evolution of energy systems over time. This dissertation describes three separate scenario analysis projects, each of which looks at the potential for a dramatic transformation of the energy system over the long term at varying geographic and sectoral scales. First, the 80in50 study analyzes the various pathways for making deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all subsectors of U.S. transport system. The CA-TIMES project then takes this work to the next level by developing an energy-engineering-environmental-economic optimization model for the California energy system, in order to bring economics and dynamics into the analysis, as well as to study the interactions between transport and the various other energy producing and consuming sectors. Finally, a collaborative project with scientists at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is described, in which a global systems engineering optimization model (MESSAGE) and a global climate model (MAGICC) are jointly utilized to evaluate synergies and trade-offs between a variety of energy objectives (climate mitigation, air pollution, energy security, and affordability

Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer Observations of Young Stellar Objects in the Lynds 1509 Dark Cloud in Auriga

The Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) has uncovered a striking cluster of young stellar object (YSO) candidates associated with the L1509 dark cloud in Auriga. The WISE observations, at 3.4 μm, 4.6 μm, 12 μm, and 22 μm, show a number of objects with colors consistent with YSOs, and their spectral energy distributions suggest the presence of circumstellar dust emission, including numerous Class I, flat spectrum, and Class II objects. In general, the YSOs in L1509 are much more tightly clustered than YSOs in other dark clouds in the Taurus-Auriga star forming region, with Class I and flat spectrum objects confined to the densest aggregates, and Class II objects more sparsely distributed. We estimate a most probable distance of 485-700 pc, and possibly as far as the previously estimated distance of 2 kpc

2°C and SDGs: United they stand, divided they fall?

The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the new international climate treaty could put 2015 into the history books as a defining year for setting human development on a more sustainable pathway. The global climate policy and SDG agendas are highly interconnected: the way that the climate problem is addressed strongly affects the prospects of meeting numerous other SDGs and vice versa. Drawing on existing scenario results from a recent energy-economy-climate model inter-comparison project, this letter analyses these synergies and (risk) trade-offs of alternative 2 °C pathways across indicators relevant for energy-related SDGs and sustainable energy objectives. We find that limiting the availability of key mitigation technologies yields some co-benefits and decreases risks specific to these technologies but greatly increases many others. Fewer synergies and substantial trade-offs across SDGs are locked into the system for weak short-term climate policies that are broadly in line with current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), particularly when combined with constraints on technologies. Lowering energy demand growth is key to managing these trade-offs and creating synergies across multiple energy-related SD dimensions. We argue that SD considerations are central for choosing socially acceptable 2 °C pathways: the prospects of meeting other SDGs need not dwindle and can even be enhanced for some goals if appropriate climate policy choices are made. Progress on the climate policy and SDG agendas should therefore be tracked within a unified framework

Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures

The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling transition pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technological learning which reduces technology costs while social learning stimulates diffusion from early adopters to more risk-averse adopter groups. In this way, both types of learning process interact to stimulate each other. In the absence of social learning, however, the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption among later adopting groups remains prohibitively high. In the absence of technological learning, electric vehicles remain relatively expensive and therefore only for early adopters an attractive choice. This first-of-its-kind model formulation of both social and technological learning is a significant contribution to improving the behavioural realism of global IAMs. Applying this new modelling approach emphasises the importance of market heterogeneity, real-world consumer decision-making, and social dynamics as well as technology parameters, to understand climate mitigation potentials

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice

2 °C and SDGs: united they stand, divided they fall?

The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the new international climate treaty could put 2015 into the history books as a defining year for setting human development on a more sustainable pathway. The global climate policy and SDG agendas are highly interconnected: the way that the climate problem is addressed strongly affects the prospects of meeting numerous other SDGs and vice versa. Drawing on existing scenario results from a recent energy-economy-climate model inter-comparison project, this letter analyses these synergies and (risk) trade-offs of alternative 2 °C pathways across indicators relevant for energy-related SDGs and sustainable energy objectives. We find that limiting the availability of key mitigation technologies yields some co-benefits and decreases risks specific to these technologies but greatly increases many others. Fewer synergies and substantial trade-offs across SDGs are locked into the system for weak short-term climate policies that are broadly in line with current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), particularly when combined with constraints on technologies. Lowering energy demand growth is key to managing these trade-offs and creating synergies across multiple energy-related SD dimensions. We argue that SD considerations are central for choosing socially acceptable 2 °C pathways: the prospects of meeting other SDGs need not dwindle and can even be enhanced for some goals if appropriate climate policy choices are made. Progress on the climate policy and SDG agendas should therefore be tracked within a unified framework.EC/FP7/265139/EU/Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates/AMPEREEC/H2020/642147/EU/Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing/CD-LINK

Preliminary report from the World Health Organisation Chest Radiography in Epidemiological Studies project.

Childhood pneumonia is among the leading infectious causes of mortality in children younger than 5 years of age globally. Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is the leading infectious cause of childhood bacterial pneumonia. The diagnosis of childhood pneumonia remains a critical epidemiological task for monitoring vaccine and treatment program effectiveness. The chest radiograph remains the most readily available and common imaging modality to assess childhood pneumonia. In 1997, the World Health Organization Radiology Working Group was established to provide a consensus method for the standardized definition for the interpretation of pediatric frontal chest radiographs, for use in bacterial vaccine efficacy trials in children. The definition was not designed for use in individual patient clinical management because of its emphasis on specificity at the expense of sensitivity. These definitions and endpoint conclusions were published in 2001 and an analysis of observer variation for these conclusions using a reference library of chest radiographs was published in 2005. In response to the technical needs identified through subsequent meetings, the World Health Organization Chest Radiography in Epidemiological Studies (CRES) project was initiated and is designed to be a continuation of the World Health Organization Radiology Working Group. The aims of the World Health Organization CRES project are to clarify the definitions used in the World Health Organization defined standardized interpretation of pediatric chest radiographs in bacterial vaccine impact and pneumonia epidemiological studies, reinforce the focus on reproducible chest radiograph readings, provide training and support with World Health Organization defined standardized interpretation of chest radiographs and develop guidelines and tools for investigators and site staff to assist in obtaining high-quality chest radiographs

Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further “lock-in” of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become “a must” by 2030

The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

AbstractStudies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4°C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2°C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century

Dental Occlusion in a Split Amazon Indigenous Population: Genetics Prevails over Environment

Background: Studies examining human and nonhuman primates have supported the hypothesis that the recent increase in the occurrence of misalignment of teeth and/or incorrect relation of dental arches, named dental malocclusion, is mainly attributed to the availability of a more processed diet and the reduced need for powerful masticatory action. For the first time on live human populations, genetic and tooth wear influences on occlusal variation were examined in a split indigenous population. The Arara-Iriri people are descendants of a single couple expelled from a larger village. In the resultant village, expansion occurred through the mating of close relatives, resulting in marked genetic cohesion with substantial genetic differences. Methodology/Principal Findings: Dental malocclusion, tooth wear and inbreeding coefficient were evaluated. The sample examined was composed of 176 individuals from both villages. Prevalence Ratio and descriptive differences in the outcomes frequency for each developmental stage of the dentition were considered. Statistical differences between the villages were examined using the chi-square test or Fisher’s exact statistic. Tooth wear and the inbreeding coefficient (F) between the villages was tested with Mann-Whitney statistics. All the statistics were performed using two-tailed distribution at p#0.05. The coefficient inbreeding (F) confirmed the frequent incestuous unions among the Arara-Iriri indigenous group. Despite the tooth wear similarities, we found a striking difference in occlusal patterns between the two Arara villages. In the original village, dental malocclusion was present in about one third of the population; whilst in the resultant village, the occurrence was almost doubled. Furthermore, the morphological characteristics of malocclusion were strongly different between the groups. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings downplay the widespread influence of tooth wear, a direct evidence of what an individual ate in the past, on occlusal variation of living human populations. They also suggest that genetics plays the most important role on dental malocclusion etiology