Statistical Inference in Possibly Integrated/Cointegrated Vector Autoregressions: Application to Testing for Structural Changes

We develop a new approach of statistical inference in possibly integrated/cointegrated vector autoregressions. Our method is built on the two previous approaches: the lag augmented approach by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the artificial autoregressions by Yamamoto (1996). We show that our estimator is asymptotically normally distributed irrespective of whether the variables are stationary or nonstationary, and that the Wald test statistic for the parameter restrictions has an asymptotic chi-square distribution. Using this method, we also propose to test for multiple structural changes. We show that our test statistics have the same limiting distributions as in the standard case, irrespective of whether the variables are stationary, purely integrated, or cointegrated.multiple breaks, stationary, unit root, cointegration

Bitcoin Investment

Bitcoin (BTC) is hot issue in investment field and finance industry last few years. It is the first decentralized digital current, as the system works without a central bank or single administrator. The network is peer-to-peer and transactions take place between users directly, without an intermediary. Because of decentralized system, bitcoin trading price has high volatility it means high return and high risk. In this work, I did experiment to describe question type is how affect people's decision-making about one condition. Especially, Bitcoin case and why most of people lose money from trading

The Changing Nature of Work in Mongolia (1989-2003): Potential, Informal and Migrant Workers

The transition and post-transition processes in Mongolia since 1989 have brought work insecurity to Mongolia. This research aimed at understanding diverse and complex urban livelihoods which emerged after the collapse of socialism, the evolving labour market, and increased migration. Despite its age, the Harris-Todaro model of migration is still a useful framework for understanding “excessive” migration in Mongolia. In Mongolia, people have been responding demographically, economically and socially to the changes in the political and economic system. We discover Mongolia has moved from dependent socialism (on FSU/Russia) to dependent capitalism (on China) since 1989 creating new forms of macro- economic imbalance. For the research, we conducted a household survey which covers 2,145 persons aged 12 and above in three urban locations in Mongolia

The Changing Nature of Work in Mongolia (1989-2003): Potential, Informal and Migrant Workers

The transition and post-transition processes in Mongolia since 1989 have brought work insecurity to Mongolia. This research aimed at understanding diverse and complex urban livelihoods which emerged after the collapse of socialism, the evolving labour market, and increased migration. Despite its age, the Harris-Todaro model of migration is still a useful framework for understanding “excessive” migration in Mongolia. In Mongolia, people have been responding demographically, economically and socially to the changes in the political and economic system. We discover Mongolia has moved from dependent socialism (on FSU/Russia) to dependent capitalism (on China) since 1989 creating new forms of macro- economic imbalance. For the research, we conducted a household survey which covers 2,145 persons aged 12 and above in three urban locations in Mongolia

An Estimated Contribution of Glacier Runoff to Mongolia’s Upper Khovd River Basin in the Altai Mountains

In the semiarid climate of northwestern Mongolia, glaciers are critical contributors to water resources, particularly during the dry summer months. Nevertheless, our knowledge of the contribution of glacier runoff in the Upper Khovd River Basin (UKRB) is limited. This study investigates the impact of glacier recession on the UKRB\u27s hydrology in western Mongolia\u27s Altai Mountains. The analysis included glaciological method measurements, satellite-derived glacier extent records, and a simple ice ablation model. Our modeling used a mass balance gradient of 0.50 meters water equivalent 100 m–1 for the years 2000, 2010, and 2016 and included a sensitivity analysis that applied lower and upper mass balance gradient values and ±200 m around the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). The glacier contribution to the UKRB\u27s water resources decreased from almost 8% in 2000 to 6.7% in 2016. Hypsometries revealed that glacier areas decreased at all elevations, indicating that only small accumulation zones exist. Therefore, applying a modeled increased ELA better represents glacier contribution to total runoff, at 18.7% in 2000 and 15.4% in 2016. The decreasing glacier runoff contribution indicates that the UKRB glaciers have passed the tipping point of an increased contribution that first follows enhanced melting. The continued glacier recession and uncertain water availability represent challenges for water resource management and future human–water relations in the Mongolian Altai

The Formation of Aufeis and Its Impact on Infrastructure around Ulaanbaatar, North-Central Mongolia

In this study aufeis features and their formation under natural conditions and in an urban surrounding in north-central Mongolia were investigated. Used methods included field observations, Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) as well as analyses of satellite imagery and meteorological data. Aufeis formation is related to streams, springs, and ground conditions, particularly soil moisture; the formation of both spring aufeis and river aufeis follows a seasonal cycle. The meteorological data from 1969 to 2018 indicate that the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) increased by 2.6 °C, whilst no significant changes were observed for precipitation. Between 1992 and 2018, aufeis areas significantly decreased at all sites, which is likely caused by the air temperature increase. In urban environments, aufeis and its meltwater can damage infrastructure and lead to soil and water pollution. Therefore, urban planning strategies in northern Mongolian settlements should be concerned with aufeis occurrence

Fires, vegetation, and human - The history of critical transitions during the last 1000 years in Northeastern Mongolia

Fires are natural phenomena that impact human behaviors, vegetation, and landscape functions. However, the long-term history of fire, especially in the permafrost marginal zone of Central Asia (Mongolia), is poorly understood. This paper presents the results of radiocarbon and short-lived radionuclides (210Pb and 137Cs) dating, pollen, geochemical, charcoal, and statistical analyses (Kohonen's artificial neural network) of sediment core obtained from Northern Mongolia (the Khentii Mountains region). Therefore, we present the first high-resolution fire history from Northern Mongolia covering the last 1000 years, based on a multiproxy analysis of peat archive data. The results revealed that most of the fires in the region were likely initiated by natural factors, which were probably related to heatwaves causing prolonged droughts. We have demonstrated the link between enhanced fires and “dzud”, a local climatic phenomenon. The number of livestock, which has been increasing for several decades, and the observed climatic changes are superimposed to cause “dzud”, a deadly combination of droughts and snowy winter, which affects fire intensity. We observed that the study area has a sensitive ecosystem that reacts quickly to climate change. In terms of changes in the vegetation, the reconstruction reflected climate variations during the last millennium, the degradation of permafrost and occurrence of fires. However, more sites with good chronologies are needed to thoroughly understand the spatial relationships between changing climate, permafrost degradation, and vegetation change, which ultimately affect the nomadic societies in the region of Central and Northern Mongolia.National Science Centre, Poland (Grant no.: 2017/01/X/ST10/01216 and 2018/31/B/ST10/02498); Polish-Mongolian Joint Research Project – “Environmental changes in the Northern Mongolia under recent and past climate variability”. Russian Science Foundation (Grant No. 20-17-00110

Northern Hemisphere permafrost map based on TTOP modelling for 2000-2016 at 1 km²scale

Permafrost is a key element of the cryosphere and an essential climate variable in the Global Climate Observing System. There is no remote-sensing method available to reliably monitor the permafrost thermal state. To estimate permafrost distribution at a hemispheric scale, we employ an equilibrium state model for the temperature at the top of the permafrost (TTOP model) for the 2000–2016 period, driven by remotely-sensed land surface temperatures, down-scaled ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data, tundra wetness classes and landcover map from the ESA Landcover Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project. Subgrid variability of ground temperatures due to snow and landcover variability is represented in the model using subpixel statistics. The results are validated against borehole measurements and reviewed regionally. The accuracy of the modelled mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the top of the permafrost is ±2 °C when compared to permafrost borehole data. The modelled permafrost area (MAGT 0) is around 21 × 106 km2 (22% of exposed land area), which is approximately 2 × 106 km2 less than estimated previously. Detailed comparisons at a regional scale show that the model performs well in sparsely vegetated tundra regions and mountains, but is less accurate in densely vegetated boreal spruce and larch forests

Epidemiology of pneumonia in the pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era in children 2-59 months of age, in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory diseases, including pneumonia, are the second largest cause of under-five mortality in Mongolia and the most common cause of childhood hospitalization. However information regarding the contribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae to pneumonia causation in Mongolia is limited. We aimed to describe the epidemiology of hospitalized children aged 2-59 months with pneumonia, enrolled into a surveillance program in the period prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction, in Mongolia. METHODS: An expanded pneumonia surveillance program enrolled children, who met the surveillance case definition, at participating hospitals, between April 2015 and May 2016. Cumulative incidence rates were calculated by district for all pneumonia endpoints using district specific denominators from the Mongolian Health Department census for 2016. Socio-economic and disease-associated factors were compared between districts using chi-squared tests. RESULTS: A total of 4318 eligible children with pneumonia were enrolled over the 14 month period. Overall the incidence for all-cause pneumonia in children aged 12-59 months was 31.8 per 1000 population; children aged 2-11 months had an almost four-fold higher incidence than children aged 12-59 months. Differences were found between districts with regards to housing type, fuel used for cooking, hospital admission practices and the proportions of severe and primary endpoint pneumonia. DISCUSSION: This study shows a high burden of pneumonia in children aged 2-59 months in Mongolia prior to PCV introduction. Rates differed somewhat by district and age group and were influenced by a number of socio-economic factors. It will be important to consider these differences and risk factors when assessing the impact of PCV introduction

Priorities for primary health care policy implementation:Recommendations from the combined experience of six countries in the Asia-Pacific

Primary health care is essential for equitable, cost-effective and sustainable health care. It is the cornerstone to achieving universal health coverage against a backdrop of rising health expenditure and aging populations. Implementing strong primary health care requires grassroots understanding of health system performance. Comparing successes and barriers between countries may help identify mutual challenges and possible solutions. This paper compares and analyses primary health care policy in Australia, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Data were collected at the World Organization of National Colleges, Academies and Academic Associations of General Practitioners/Family Physicians (WONCA) Asia-Pacific regional conference in November 2017 using a predetermined framework. The six countries varied in maturity of their primary health care systems, including the extent to which family doctors contribute to care delivery. Challenges included an insufficient trained and competent workforce, particularly in rural and remote communities, and deficits in coordination within primary health care, as well as between primary and secondary care. Asia-Pacific regional policy needs to: (1) focus on better collaboration between public and private sectors; (2) take a structured approach to information sharing by bridging gaps in technology, health literacy and interprofessional working; (3) build systems that can evaluate and improve quality of care; and (4) promote community-based, high-quality training programs