The 5.2 ka climate event: Evidence from stable isotope and multi-proxy palaeoecological peatland records in Ireland

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Evidence for a major climate event at 5.2 ka has been reported globally and is associated with considerable societal disruption, but is poorly characterised in northwest Europe. This event forms part of a broader period of re-organisation in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere circulation system between 6 and 5 ka. This study tests the nature and timing of the event in northwest Europe, a region highly sensitive to change in meridional overturning circulation and mid-latitude westerly airflow. Here we report three high-resolution Irish multi-proxy records obtained from ombrotrophic peatlands that have robust chronological frameworks. We identify the 5.2 ka event by a sustained decrease in δ 18 O cellulose at all three sites, with additional and parallel changes in δ 13 C cellulose and palaeoecological (testate amoebae, plant macrofossil and humification) data from two sites in northern Ireland. Data from Sluggan Moss demonstrate a particularly coherent shift towards wetter conditions. These data support the hypothesis that the event was caused by a prolonged period of positive North Atlantic Oscillation conditions, resulting in pervasive cyclonic weather patterns across northwest Europe, increasing precipitation over Ireland.This research was carried out while T.P.R. held UK Natural Environment Research Council studentship at the University of Exeter (NE/G524328/1) and T.J.D held a studentship at the University of Southampton tied to the NERC RAPID Programme (NER/T/S/2002/00460). Radiocarbon support was provided by the NERC 14C Steering Committee (Allocation No.: 1523.0910), the NERC RAPID Programme and the Irish Quaternary Association via the IQUA Bill Watts 14Chrono award

Spectral estimates for saddle point matrices arising in weak constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation

We consider the large-sparse symmetric linear systems of equations that arise in the solution of weak constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation, a method of high interest for numerical weather prediction. These systems can be written as saddle point systems with a $3 \times 3$ block structure but block eliminations can be performed to reduce them to saddle point systems with a $2 \times 2$ block structure, or further to symmetric positive definite systems. In this paper, we analyse how sensitive the spectra of these matrices are to the number of observations of the underlying dynamical system. We also obtain bounds on the eigenvalues of the matrices. Numerical experiments are used to confirm the theoretical analysis and bounds

Modelling informative time points: an evolutionary process approach

Real time series sometimes exhibit various types of "irregularities": missing observations, observations collected not regularly over time for practical reasons, observation times driven by the series itself, or outlying observations. However, the vast majority of methods of time series analysis are designed for regular time series only. A particular case of irregularly spaced time series is that in which the sampling procedure over time depends also on the observed values. In such situations, there is stochastic dependence between the process being modelled and the times of the observations. In this work, we propose a model in which the sampling design depends on all past history of the observed processes. Taking into account the natural temporal order underlying available data represented by a time series, then a modelling approach based on evolutionary processes seems a natural choice. We consider maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. Numerical studies with simulated and real data sets are performed to illustrate the benefits of this model-based approach.- The authors acknowledge Foundation FCT (FundacAo para a Ciencia e Tecnologia) as members of the research project PTDC/MAT-STA/28243/2017 and Center for Research & Development in Mathematics and Applications of Aveiro University within project UID/MAT/04106/2019

Drivers of Holocene peatland carbon accumulation across a climate gradient in northeastern North America

Peatlands are an important component of the Holocene global carbon (C) cycle and the rate of C sequestration and storage is driven by the balance between net primary productivity and decay. A number of studies now suggest that climate is a key driver of peatland C accumulation at large spatial scales and over long timescales, with warmer conditions associated with higher rates of C accumulation. However, other factors are also likely to play a significant role in determining local carbon accumulation rates and these may modify past, present and future peatland carbon sequestration. Here, we test the importance of climate as a driver of C accumulation, compared with hydrological change, fire, nitrogen content and vegetation type, from records of C accumulation at three sites in northeastern North America, across the N-S climate gradient of raised bog distribution. Radiocarbon age models, bulk density values and %C measurements from each site are used to construct C accumulation histories commencing between 11,200 and 8000cal. years BP. The relationship between C accumulation and environmental variables (past water table depth, fire, peat forming vegetation and nitrogen content) is assessed with linear and multivariate regression analyses. Differences in long-term rates of carbon accumulation between sites support the contention that a warmer climate with longer growing seasons results in faster rates of long-term carbon accumulation. However, mid-late Holocene accumulation rates show divergent trends, decreasing in the north but rising in the south. We hypothesise that sites close to the moisture threshold for raised bog distribution increased their growth rate in response to a cooler climate with lower evapotranspiration in the late Holocene, but net primary productivity declined over the same period in northern areas causing a decrease in C accumulation. There was no clear relationship between C accumulation and hydrological change, vegetation, nitrogen content or fire, but early successional stages of peatland growth had faster rates of C accumulation even though temperatures were probably lower at the time. We conclude that climate is the most important driver of peatland accumulation rates over millennial timescales, but that successional vegetation change is a significant additional influence. Whilst the majority of northern peatlands are likely to increase C accumulation rates under future warmer climates, those at the southern limit of distribution may show reduced rates. However, early succession peatlands that develop under future warming at the northern limits of peatland distribution are likely to have high rates of C accumulation and will compensate for some of the losses elsewhere

Preventing childhood obesity, phase II feasibility study focusing on South Asians: BEACHeS

Objective: To assess feasibility and acceptability of a multifaceted, culturally appropriate intervention for preventing obesity in South Asian children, and to obtain data to inform sample size for a definitive trial. Design: Phase II feasibility study of a complex intervention. Setting: 8 primary schools in inner city Birmingham, UK, within populations that are predominantly South Asian. Participants: 1090 children aged 6–8 years took part in the intervention. 571 (85.9% from South Asian background) underwent baseline measures. 85.5% (n=488) were followed up 2 years later. Interventions: The 1-year intervention consisted of school-based and family-based activities, targeting dietary and physical activity behaviours. The intervention was modified and refined throughout the period of delivery. Main outcome measures: Acceptability and feasibility of the intervention and of measurements required to assess outcomes in a definitive trial. The difference in body mass index (BMI) z-score between arms was used to inform sample size calculations for a definitive trial. Results: Some intervention components (increasing school physical activity opportunities, family cooking skills workshops, signposting of local leisure facilities and attending day event at a football club) were feasible and acceptable. Other components were acceptable, but not feasible. Promoting walking groups was neither acceptable nor feasible. At follow-up, children in the intervention compared with the control group were less likely to be obese (OR 0.41; 0.19 to 0.89), and had lower adjusted BMI z-score (−0.15 kg/m2; 95% CI −0.27 to −0.03). Conclusions: The feasibility study informed components for an intervention programme. The favourable direction of outcome for weight status in the intervention group supports the need for a definitive trial. A cluster randomised controlled trial is now underway to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Trial registration number: ISRCTN51016370

Epigenetic memory in induced pluripotent stem cells.

Somatic cell nuclear transfer and transcription-factor-based reprogramming revert adult cells to an embryonic state, and yield pluripotent stem cells that can generate all tissues. Through different mechanisms and kinetics, these two reprogramming methods reset genomic methylation, an epigenetic modification of DNA that influences gene expression, leading us to hypothesize that the resulting pluripotent stem cells might have different properties. Here we observe that low-passage induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) derived by factor-based reprogramming of adult murine tissues harbour residual DNA methylation signatures characteristic of their somatic tissue of origin, which favours their differentiation along lineages related to the donor cell, while restricting alternative cell fates. Such an 'epigenetic memory' of the donor tissue could be reset by differentiation and serial reprogramming, or by treatment of iPSCs with chromatin-modifying drugs. In contrast, the differentiation and methylation of nuclear-transfer-derived pluripotent stem cells were more similar to classical embryonic stem cells than were iPSCs. Our data indicate that nuclear transfer is more effective at establishing the ground state of pluripotency than factor-based reprogramming, which can leave an epigenetic memory of the tissue of origin that may influence efforts at directed differentiation for applications in disease modelling or treatment

Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary Information; Nature Physics (2011

Lateral gene transfer between prokaryotes and multicellular eukaryotes: ongoing and significant?

The expansion of genome sequencing projects has produced accumulating evidence for lateral transfer of genes between prokaryotic and eukaryotic genomes. However, it remains controversial whether these genes are of functional importance in their recipient host. Nikoh and Nakabachi, in a recent paper in BMC Biology, take a first step and show that two genes of bacterial origin are highly expressed in the pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum. Active gene expression of transferred genes is supported by three other recent studies. Future studies should reveal whether functional proteins are produced and whether and how these are targeted to the appropriate compartment. We argue that the transfer of genes between host and symbiont may occasionally be of great evolutionary importance, particularly in the evolution of the symbiotic interaction itself

Out-of-equilibrium physics in driven dissipative coupled resonator arrays

Coupled resonator arrays have been shown to exhibit interesting many- body physics including Mott and Fractional Hall states of photons. One of the main differences between these photonic quantum simulators and their cold atoms coun- terparts is in the dissipative nature of their photonic excitations. The natural equi- librium state is where there are no photons left in the cavity. Pumping the system with external drives is therefore necessary to compensate for the losses and realise non-trivial states. The external driving here can easily be tuned to be incoherent, coherent or fully quantum, opening the road for exploration of many body regimes beyond the reach of other approaches. In this chapter, we review some of the physics arising in driven dissipative coupled resonator arrays including photon fermionisa- tion, crystallisation, as well as photonic quantum Hall physics out of equilibrium. We start by briefly describing possible experimental candidates to realise coupled resonator arrays along with the two theoretical models that capture their physics, the Jaynes-Cummings-Hubbard and Bose-Hubbard Hamiltonians. A brief review of the analytical and sophisticated numerical methods required to tackle these systems is included.Comment: Chapter that appeared in "Quantum Simulations with Photons and Polaritons: Merging Quantum Optics with Condensed Matter Physics" edited by D.G.Angelakis, Quantum Science and Technology Series, Springer 201

Participant recruitment into a randomised controlled trial of exercise therapy for people with multiple sclerosis

The success of a clinical trial is often dependant on whether recruitment targets can be met in the required time frame. Despite an increase in research into the benefits of exercise in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS), no trial has reported detailed data on effective recruitment strategies for large-scale randomised controlled trials. The main purpose of this report is to provide a detailed outline of recruitment strategies, rates and estimated costs in the Exercise Intervention for Multiple Sclerosis (ExIMS) trial to identify best practices for future trials involving multiple sclerosis (MS) patient recruitment