Decision by sampling

We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute’s subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We assume that the sample reflects both the immediate distribution of attribute values from the current decision’s context and also the background, real-world distribution of attribute values. DbS accounts for concave utility functions; losses looming larger than gains; hyperbolic temporal discounting; and the overestimation of small probabilities and the underestimation of large probabilities

Project TENDR: Targeting environmental neuro-developmental risks. the TENDR consensus statement

Children in America today are at an unacceptably high risk of developing neurodevelopmental disorders that affect the brain and nervous system including autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, intellectual disabilities, and other learning and behavioral disabilities. These are complex disorders with multiple causes—genetic, social, and environmental. The contribution of toxic chemicals to these disorders can be prevented. Approach: Leading scientific and medical experts, along with children’s health advocates, came together in 2015 under the auspices of Project TENDR: Targeting Environmental Neuro-Developmental Risks to issue a call to action to reduce widespread exposures to chemicals that interfere with fetal and children’s brain development. Based on the available scientific evidence, the TENDR authors have identified prime examples of toxic chemicals and pollutants that increase children’s risks for neurodevelopmental disorders. These include chemicals that are used extensively in consumer products and that have become widespread in the environment. Some are chemicals to which children and pregnant women are regularly exposed, and they are detected in the bodies of virtually all Americans in national surveys conducted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The vast majority of chemicals in industrial and consumer products undergo almost no testing for developmental neurotoxicity or other health effects. Conclusion: Based on these findings, we assert that the current system in the United States for evaluating scientific evidence and making health-based decisions about environmental chemicals is fundamentally broken. To help reduce the unacceptably high prevalence of neurodevelopmental disorders in our children, we must eliminate or significantly reduce exposures to chemicals that contribute to these conditions. We must adopt a new framework for assessing chemicals that have the potential to disrupt brain development and prevent the use of those that may pose a risk. This consensus statement lays the foundation for developing recommendations to monitor, assess, and reduce exposures to neurotoxic chemicals. These measures are urgently needed if we are to protect healthy brain development so that current and future generations can reach their fullest potential

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5–7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2,3,4,5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets

A nuclear data system

A collaborating group of Yale and IBM scientists have developed a versatile data acquisition system, based on an IBM System/360 Model 44 Computer, which is now in routine use. Data acquisition is performed via an interface which features modular and digitally compatible ADCs, scalers and monitor registers, and which allows the experimenter to define up to sixteen independent events. The software system makes possible the processing of all incoming events by Fortran programs. Communication between the experimenter and computer is carried out by means of a display terminal which includes a 1024-1024 random point plotting CRT with a built-in characteric generator, and a function keyboard. Facilities are also included for control and monitoring of the experiment hardware and accelerator conditions. A multiprogramming supervisor enables several independent jobs to be run simultaneously, with inter-job communication facilities to enable analysis of data to be carried out concurrently with its acquisition

A nuclear data system

A collaborating group of Yale and IBM scientists have developed a versatile data acquisition system, based on an IBM System/360 Model 44 Computer, which is now in routine use. Data acquisition is performed via an interface which features modular and digitally compatible ADCs, scalers and monitor registers, and which allows the experimenter to define up to sixteen independent events. The software system makes possible the processing of all incoming events by Fortran programs. Communication between the experimenter and computer is carried out by means of a display terminal which includes a 1024-1024 random point plotting CRT with a built-in characteric generator, and a function keyboard. Facilities are also included for control and monitoring of the experiment hardware and accelerator conditions. A multiprogramming supervisor enables several independent jobs to be run simultaneously, with inter-job communication facilities to enable analysis of data to be carried out concurrently with its acquisition.Un groupe de scientifiques de Yale et de IBM a mis au point un système souple d'acquisition de données utilisant un calculateur IBM 360/44 qui fonctionne maintenant en production. L'acquisition des données se fait à travers un interface comprenant des convertisseurs analogiques digitaux et des registres moniteurs permettant à l'expérimentateur de définir jusqu'à 16 événements distincts. Le système moniteur permet le traitement des événements par langage Fortran. Le dialogue entre expérimentateur et calculateur s'effectue au moyen d'une unité de visualisation 1024-1024 points CRT et d'un pupitre à clefs. Le contrôle et le monitorage de l'instrumentation ainsi que les conditions de fonctionnement de l'accélérateur peuvent être effectués à partir du calculateur. Un superviseur de multiprogrammation permet l'exécution simultanée de plusieurs travaux indépendants avec possibilité de traitement des données pendant leur acquisition

Does the brain calculate value?

How do people choose between options? At one extreme, the ‘value-first’ view is that the brain computes the value of different options and simply favours options with higher values. An intermediate position, taken by many psychological models of judgment and decision making, is that values are computed but that the resulting choices depend heavily on the context of available options. At the other extreme, the ‘comparison-only’ view argues that choice depends directly on comparisons, with or even without any intermediate computation of value. In this paper, we place past and current psychological and neuroscientific theories on this spectrum, and review empirical data that have led to an increasing focus on comparison rather than value as the driver of choice