An Outline of My Main Contributions to Economic Science

Prize Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, December 9, 1988.Theory of Markets;

Local Durability and Long-Run Persistence: An Evaluation of the U.S. Risk Premia

I study the empirical properties of a non-linear stochastic dynamic representative-agent model with rational expectations. The representative agent is assumed to have time non separable preferences. The time nonseparability in preferences is due to local substitution of consumption over time as well as to long-run habit persistence. Specifically, I investigate whether the dynamic model replicates the observed mean and the standard deviation of the U.S real returns in the 1965-1987 period. I use a projection method to solve the model and then I evaluate the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution (IMRS) as well as the asset returns implied by the dynamic model. First, I find that the IMRS implied by the model statistically fits the Hansen and Jagannathan bound. Secondly, I find that combined effects of substituion and complementarity over consumption nearly solve the equity premium and the risk-free rate puzzles.

Child labour and education: Evidence from SIMPOC surveys

This document is part of a digital collection provided by the Martin P. Catherwood Library, ILR School, Cornell University, pertaining to the effects of globalization on the workplace worldwide. Special emphasis is placed on labor rights, working conditions, labor market changes, and union organizing.ILO_ChildLabourandEducation_SIMPOCSurveys.pdf: 617 downloads, before Oct. 1, 2020

The shift to outcomes based frameworks. Key problems from a critical perspective

This paper takes a step back from the discussions and debates about qualifications frameworks per se, to think more broadly about the role of "qualifications" in educational reform. The aims of the paper are to locate the reform of qualifications in its broader social and institutional context, to propose a way of conceptualizing the change from qualification systems as they have emerged historically to qualifications frameworks and outcomes-based qualifications and to explore the tensions involved in the different goals that the introduction of a (National) Qualfications Framework - (N)QF will achieve. We argue that what is at stake in current reforms is the role of educational institutions in the education and training of the next generation, the balance between institution-based education and informal (in some cases work-based) learning, and the ways in which trust in qualifications is established and maintained. Our two-model analysis explores the balance between an emphasis on institutions and outcomes. This paper was written to provoke debate, and help all involved in researching qualifications frameworks to think more clearly about the issues. (DIPF/Orig.)Dieser Beitrag versucht, einen Schritt hinter die Diskussionen und Debatten über Qualifikationsrahmen zu treten und in einem breiteren Zusammenhang über die Rolle von „Qualifikationen“ in der Bildungsreform nachzudenken. Der Beitrag hat folgende Punkte zum Ziel: die Qualifikationsreform in ihrem breiteren sozialen und institutionellen Kontext einzugrenzen, einen Weg zur Konzeptionalisierung des Wandels von historisch gewachsenen Qualifikationssystemen hin zu Qualifikationsrahmen und ergebnisorientierten Qualifikationen vorzuschlagen und die Spannungsfelder auszuloten, die die unterschiedlichen Zielsetzungen bei Einführung eines (Nationalen) Qualifikationsrahmens mit sich bringen würden. Die AutorInnen behaupten, dass in den aktuellen Reformen Folgendes auf dem Spiel steht: die Rolle der Bildungsinstitutionen in der Bildung und Ausbildung der nächsten Generation, die Balance zwischen institutionsbasierter Bildung und informellem (in einigen Fällen arbeitsbasiertem) Lernen sowie die Art und Weise, wie Vertrauen in Qualifikationen aufgebaut und erhalten wird. Ihre Zwei-Modell-Analyse untersucht die Balance zwischen Schwerpunktsetzungen auf Institutionen und Ergebnisse. Der vorliegende Beitrag wurde verfasst, um eine Diskussion in Gang zu setzen, die allen an der Forschung über Qualifikationsrahmen Beteiligten helfen soll, die Problemstellung mit mehr Klarheit zu reflektieren. (DIPF/Orig.

MODELING STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN FRENCH BEEF, POULTRY, AND FISH DEMAND: A MARKOV SWITCHING AIDS MODEL

Structural change in the French demand of beef, poultry and fish is originally investigated. Rather than applying the traditional switching AIDS (S-AIDS) model, we reconsider the analysis of structural change through the Markov switching AIDS (MS-AIDS). The main feature of this model is that the switching mechanism is controlled by an unobserved variable that follows a Markov chain. As such, it captures more complex dynamic patterns than does the S-AIDS model. The MS-AIDS and the S-AIDS are compared to determine which model provides the better explanation of beef, poultry, and fish dynamic demand. We find that a MS-AIDS displaying habit formation detects the two mad cow crises in 1996 and 2000 and may identify the structural changes emanating from nutritional recommendations.Demand and Price Analysis,