Did speculation drive oil prices? futures market points to fundamentals

Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look for evidence in the futures market that would signal speculation primarily drove prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the physical market.Supply and demand ; Inventories ; Macroeconomics

Did speculation drive oil prices? market fundamentals suggest otherwise

Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look at evidence from the physical market for oil and conclude that fundamentals, and not speculation, were behind the dramatic rise and fall in oil prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the futures market.Supply and demand ; Inventories

Nitrate and nitrite variability at the seafloor of an oxygen minimum zone revealed by a novel microfluidic in-situ chemical sensor

Microfluidics, or lab-on-a-chip (LOC) is a promising technology that allows the development of miniaturized chemical sensors. In contrast to the surging interest in biomedical sciences, the utilization of LOC sensors in aquatic sciences is still in infancy but a wider use of such sensors could mitigate the undersampling problem of ocean biogeochemical processes. Here we describe the first underwater test of a novel LOC sensor to obtain in situ calibrated time-series (up to 40 h) of nitrate+nitrite (ΣNOx) and nitrite on the seafloor of the Mauritanian oxygen minimum zone, offshore Western Africa. Initial tests showed that the sensor successfully reproduced water column (160 m) nutrient profiles. Lander deployments at 50, 100 and 170 m depth indicated that the biogeochemical variability was high over the Mauritanian shelf: The 50 m site had the lowest ΣNOx concentration, with 15.2 to 23.4 μM (median=18.3 μM); while at the 100 site ΣNOx varied between 21.0 and 30.1 μM over 40 hours (median = 25.1μM). The 170 m site had the highest median ΣNOx level (25.8 μM) with less variability (22.8 to 27.7 μM). At the 50 m site, nitrite concentration decreased fivefold from 1 to 0.2 μM in just 30 hours accompanied by decreasing oxygen and increasing nitrate concentrations. Taken together with the time series of oxygen, temperature, pressure and current velocities, we propose that the episodic intrusion of deeper waters via cross-shelf transport leads to intrusion of nitrate-rich, but oxygen-poor waters to shallower locations, with consequences for benthic nitrogen cycling. This first validation of an LOC sensor at elevated water depths revealed that when deployed for longer periods and as a part of a sensor network, LOC technology has the potential to contribute to the understanding of the benthic biogeochemical dynamics

Specificity of hemodynamic brain responses to painful stimuli: a functional near-infrared spectroscopy study

Assessing pain in individuals not able to communicate (e.g. infants, under surgery, or following stroke) is difficult due to the lack of non-verbal objective measures of pain. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) being a portable, non-invasive and inexpensive method of monitoring cerebral hemodynamic activity has the potential to provide such a measure. Here we used functional NIRS to evaluate brain activation to an innocuous and a noxious electrical stimulus on healthy human subjects (n = 11). For both innocuous and noxious stimuli, we observed a signal change in the primary somatosensory cortex contralateral to the stimulus. The painful and non-painful stimuli can be differentiated based on their signal size and profile. We also observed that repetitive noxious stimuli resulted in adaptation of the signal. Furthermore, the signal was distinguishable from a skin sympathetic response to pain that tended to mask it. Our results support the notion that functional NIRS has a potential utility as an objective measure of pain.Published versio

Manifesto for a European research network into Problematic Usage of the Internet

Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.The Internet is now all-pervasive across much of the globe. While it has positive uses (e.g. prompt access to information, rapid news dissemination), many individuals develop Problematic Use of the Internet (PUI), an umbrella term incorporating a range of repetitive impairing behaviours. The Internet can act as a conduit for, and may contribute to, functionally impairing behaviours including excessive and compulsive video gaming, compulsive sexual behaviour, buying, gambling, streaming or social networks use. There is growing public and National health authority concern about the health and societal costs of PUI across the lifespan. Gaming Disorder is being considered for inclusion as a mental disorder in diagnostic classification systems, and was listed in the ICD-11 version released for consideration by Member States (http://www.who.int/classifications/icd/revision/timeline/en/). More research is needed into disorder definitions, validation of clinical tools, prevalence, clinical parameters, brain-based biology, socio-health-economic impact, and empirically validated intervention and policy approaches. Potential cultural differences in the magnitudes and natures of types and patterns of PUI need to be better understood, to inform optimal health policy and service development. To this end, the EU under Horizon 2020 has launched a new four-year European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action Programme (CA 16207), bringing together scientists and clinicians from across the fields of impulsive, compulsive, and addictive disorders, to advance networked interdisciplinary research into PUI across Europe and beyond, ultimately seeking to inform regulatory policies and clinical practice. This paper describes nine critical and achievable research priorities identified by the Network, needed in order to advance understanding of PUI, with a view towards identifying vulnerable individuals for early intervention. The network shall enable collaborative research networks, shared multinational databases, multicentre studies and joint publications.Peer reviewe

Multiple Orbitoides d’Orbigny lineages in the Maastrichtian? Data from the Central Sakarya Basin (Turkey) and Arabian Platform successions (Southeastern Turkey and Oman)

The standard reconstruction of species of Orbitoides d'Orbigny into a single lineage during the late Santonian to the end of the Maastrichtian is based upon morphometric data from Western Europe. An irreversible increase in the size of the embryonic apparatus, and the formation of a greater number of epi-embryonic chamberlets (EPC) with time, is regarded as the main evolutionary trends used in species discrimination. However, data from Maastrichtian Orbitoides assemblages from Central Turkey and the Arabian Platform margin (Southeastern Turkey and Oman) are not consistent with this record. The Maastrichtian Besni Formation of the Arabian Platform margin in Southeastern Turkey yields invariably biconvex specimens, with small, tri- to quadrilocular embryons and a small number of EPC, comparable to late Campanian Orbitoides medius (d'Archiac). The upper Maastrichtian Tarakli Formation from the Sakarya Basin of Central Turkey contains two distinct, yet closely associated forms of Orbitoides, easily differentiated by both external and internal features. Flat to biconcave specimens possess a small, tri- to quadrilocular embryonic apparatus of Orbitoides medius-type and a small number of EPC, whereas biconvex specimens possess a large, predominantly bilocular embryonic apparatus, and were assigned to Orbitoides ex. interc. gruenbachensis Papp-apiculatus Schlumberger based on morphometry. The flat to biconcave specimens belong to a long overlooked species Orbitoides pamiri Meric, originally described from the late Maastrichtian of the Tauride Mountains in SW Turkey. This species is herein interpreted to be an offshoot from the main Orbitoides lineage during the Maastrichtian, as are forms that we term Orbitoides 'medius', since they recall this species, yet are younger than normal occurrence with the accepted morphometrically defined lineage. The consistent correlation between the external and internal test features in O. pamiri implies that the shape of the test is not an ecophenotypic variation, but appears to be biologically controlled. We, therefore, postulate that more than one lineage of Orbitoides exists during the Maastrichtian, with a lineage that includes O. 'medius' and O. pamiri displaying retrograde evolutionary features

Comparative Istanbul example regarding attitudes of the students preparing for university exam towards mathematics and computer

The purpose of this study is to determine mathematics and computer attitudes of the students preparing for university exam. In this sense, the questionnaire was performed on a total of 250 people. Cronbach’s alpha analysis was applied for the reliability of the questions prepared, and the reliability coefficient was found 0.920. Factor analysis, regression test, chi-square, t test and one-way Anova tests were utilized in the analysis of data obtained In summary, it has been concluded that the success average of the participants for math lesson is high and their daily internet use is 4 hours and above. The students have stated that the technology increases their success in their lessons but they waste their time with internet use instead of using their time to prepare university exam. The parents of the students have put forward their negative concerns about the use of technology due to the worries for the exam

Autoignition in stratified mixtures for pressure gain combustion

The reliable generation of quasi-homogeneous autoignition inside a combustor fed by a continuous air flow would represent a milestone in realizing pressure gain combustion in gas turbines. In this work, the ignition distribution inside a stratified fuel–air mixture is analyzed. The ability of precise and reproducible injection of a desired fuel profile inside a convecting air flow is verified by applying tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy in non-reacting measurements. High-speed, static pressure sensors and ionization probes allow for simultaneous detection of the flame and pressure rise at several axial positions in reactive measurements with dimethyl ether as fuel. A second, exchangeable combustion tube enables optical observation of OH* intensity in combination with pressure measurements. Experiments with three arbitrary fuel profiles show a set of ignition distributions that vary in shape, homogeneity, and the number of simultaneous autoignition events. Although the measurements show notable variation, a significant and reproducible influence of the fuel injection on the ignition distribution is observed. Results show that uniform autoignition leads to a coupling of the reaction front with the pressure rise and, therefore, induces a greater aerodynamic constraint than non-uniform ignition distributions, which are dominated by propagating deflagration fronts.DFG, 200291049, SFB 1029: TurbIn - Signifikante Wirkungsgradsteigerung durch gezielte, interagierende Verbrennungs- und Strömungsinstationaritäten in Gasturbine

Pupils’ Attitudes for Physical Education Lesson and Science Lesson at Primary Schools: A Comparative Example of Ankara Province

The aim of this study is to examine primary school pupils‟ attitudes for physical education and science lessons in a comparative and applied fashion. Totally (N=452) primary school pupils participated in our study. Participants were selected randomly. In this applied study, a questionnaire with 5-point likert scale that consisted of two parts for the two lessons was administrated. Data as a result of the study were subject to reliability analysis, and the Cronbach Alpha coefficient was found as 0.921. Kaiser-MeyerOlkin, Barlett‟s Test of Sphericity analysis, Scree Plotgraph, Factor analysis, Correlation analysis, Tukey, and t-test were applied. It was found that the research was meaningful with Item-Total correlations having a p<0.01 significance level. As a result of the study, it was found that participants performed greater attitudes and importance for science, displayed higher interest and attention towards science lessons, and had thoughts that they will need science lessons more in the future. As for their attitudes for physical education lesson, it was seen that they were lower than those for science lessons. Among the main reasons are ideas and opinions that pupils do insufficient sports activities, sports equipment and materials are insufficient, and sports areas are ineligible for the types they wish to do