Did speculation drive oil prices? futures market points to fundamentals

Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look for evidence in the futures market that would signal speculation primarily drove prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the physical market.Supply and demand ; Inventories ; Macroeconomics

Did speculation drive oil prices? market fundamentals suggest otherwise

Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look at evidence from the physical market for oil and conclude that fundamentals, and not speculation, were behind the dramatic rise and fall in oil prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the futures market.Supply and demand ; Inventories

Nitrate and nitrite variability at the seafloor of an oxygen minimum zone revealed by a novel microfluidic in-situ chemical sensor

Microfluidics, or lab-on-a-chip (LOC) is a promising technology that allows the development of miniaturized chemical sensors. In contrast to the surging interest in biomedical sciences, the utilization of LOC sensors in aquatic sciences is still in infancy but a wider use of such sensors could mitigate the undersampling problem of ocean biogeochemical processes. Here we describe the first underwater test of a novel LOC sensor to obtain in situ calibrated time-series (up to 40 h) of nitrate+nitrite (ΣNOx) and nitrite on the seafloor of the Mauritanian oxygen minimum zone, offshore Western Africa. Initial tests showed that the sensor successfully reproduced water column (160 m) nutrient profiles. Lander deployments at 50, 100 and 170 m depth indicated that the biogeochemical variability was high over the Mauritanian shelf: The 50 m site had the lowest ΣNOx concentration, with 15.2 to 23.4 μM (median=18.3 μM); while at the 100 site ΣNOx varied between 21.0 and 30.1 μM over 40 hours (median = 25.1μM). The 170 m site had the highest median ΣNOx level (25.8 μM) with less variability (22.8 to 27.7 μM). At the 50 m site, nitrite concentration decreased fivefold from 1 to 0.2 μM in just 30 hours accompanied by decreasing oxygen and increasing nitrate concentrations. Taken together with the time series of oxygen, temperature, pressure and current velocities, we propose that the episodic intrusion of deeper waters via cross-shelf transport leads to intrusion of nitrate-rich, but oxygen-poor waters to shallower locations, with consequences for benthic nitrogen cycling. This first validation of an LOC sensor at elevated water depths revealed that when deployed for longer periods and as a part of a sensor network, LOC technology has the potential to contribute to the understanding of the benthic biogeochemical dynamics

Manifesto for a European research network into Problematic Usage of the Internet

Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.The Internet is now all-pervasive across much of the globe. While it has positive uses (e.g. prompt access to information, rapid news dissemination), many individuals develop Problematic Use of the Internet (PUI), an umbrella term incorporating a range of repetitive impairing behaviours. The Internet can act as a conduit for, and may contribute to, functionally impairing behaviours including excessive and compulsive video gaming, compulsive sexual behaviour, buying, gambling, streaming or social networks use. There is growing public and National health authority concern about the health and societal costs of PUI across the lifespan. Gaming Disorder is being considered for inclusion as a mental disorder in diagnostic classification systems, and was listed in the ICD-11 version released for consideration by Member States (http://www.who.int/classifications/icd/revision/timeline/en/). More research is needed into disorder definitions, validation of clinical tools, prevalence, clinical parameters, brain-based biology, socio-health-economic impact, and empirically validated intervention and policy approaches. Potential cultural differences in the magnitudes and natures of types and patterns of PUI need to be better understood, to inform optimal health policy and service development. To this end, the EU under Horizon 2020 has launched a new four-year European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action Programme (CA 16207), bringing together scientists and clinicians from across the fields of impulsive, compulsive, and addictive disorders, to advance networked interdisciplinary research into PUI across Europe and beyond, ultimately seeking to inform regulatory policies and clinical practice. This paper describes nine critical and achievable research priorities identified by the Network, needed in order to advance understanding of PUI, with a view towards identifying vulnerable individuals for early intervention. The network shall enable collaborative research networks, shared multinational databases, multicentre studies and joint publications.Peer reviewe

Small Corrections to the Tunneling Phase Time Formulation

After reexamining the above barrier diffusion problem where we notice that the wave packet collision implies the existence of {\em multiple} reflected and transmitted wave packets, we analyze the way of obtaining phase times for tunneling/reflecting particles in a particular colliding configuration where the idea of multiple peak decomposition is recovered. To partially overcome the analytical incongruities which frequently rise up when the stationary phase method is adopted for computing the (tunneling) phase time expressions, we present a theoretical exercise involving a symmetrical collision between two identical wave packets and a unidimensional squared potential barrier where the scattered wave packets can be recomposed by summing the amplitudes of simultaneously reflected and transmitted wave components so that the conditions for applying the stationary phase principle are totally recovered. Lessons concerning the use of the stationary phase method are drawn.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figure

Metabolic and Crystal Arthropathies [70-72]: 70. Single Intramuscular Depot Methylprednisolone Injection: A Convenient, Efficacious and Safe Treatment for Gouty Arthritis in an Inpatient Setting

Background: Various modalities of treatment have been used and recommended in the treatment of acute gout. These include drugs such as colchicine, NSAIDs and oral prednisolone. Intramuscular depot methylprednisolone (im MP) is currently used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis as well as polymyalgia. However the response to im MP in acute gouty arthritis in an inpatient setting (where there are usually contraindications to NSAIDs) has not been previously described in literature. Methods: Eighteen case records of patients presenting with acute gouty arthritis and referred to Rheumatology, between October 2008 and October 2009, were reviewed. Results: Fourteen men and four women, with a mean age of 60 years (range 55-88 years) were seen. Of the 18, 14 patients had a previous history of chronic gout and 4 patients were newly diagnosed. Sixteen patients had polyarticular gout (mainly bilateral wrists and knees) and the remaining 2 had monoarticular gout (1 knee, 1 wrist). Seventeen patients had synovial fluid analysis, which revealed negatively birefringent urate crystals, and 1 patient refused joint aspiration. All patients had predisposing co-morbidities such as diabetes (10), hypertension (15), CCF (5), chronic kidney disease (8) and 2 patients had a history of chronic alcohol excess. Five patients initially received NSAIDs and 3 had concomitant colchicine with all 5 showing a delayed response. All patients were given im MP 120 mg in the gluteal region as a deep injection. All responded completely to im yMP within 2 days with resolution of pain and swelling of inflamed joints. All patients felt much improved and rated the treatment highly. Conclusions: The latest BSR guidelines recommends the use of steroids in the management of refractory cases of gout, i.e. patients intolerant of or having contraindications to NSAIDS or colchicine. This restricted indication is based mainly on the side effects to oral steroids or lack of expertise with intra-articular injections. We have shown that a single intramuscular methyl prednisolone injection is highly effective, very convenient, patient acceptable and safe treatment for gout particularly in elderly patients with multiple co-morbidities. As most cases of inpatient gout have comorbidities such as in our series with contraindications to NSAIDs, we recommend the use of im methyl prednisolone as the first-line treatment in such patients. It may be a less painful alternative to intra-articular steroid injections and safer than bigger doses of oral steroids (especially in diabetes). Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Metabolic and crystal arthropathies: 112. Rapid Improvement in Health-Related Quality of Life in Gouty Arthritis Patients Treated with Canakinumab (ACZ885) Compared to Triamcinolone Acetonide

Background: Canakinumab, a fully human anti-IL-1β antibody has been shown to control inflammation in gouty arthritis. This study evaluated changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients treated with canakinumab or triamcinolone acetonide (TA). Methods: An 8-wk, dose-ranging, active controlled, single-blind study in patients (≥18 to ≤80 years) with acute gouty arthritis flare, refractory to or contraindicated to NSAlDs and/or colchicine, were randomized to canakinumab 10, 25, 50, 90, 150 mg sc or TA 40 mg im. HRQoL was assessed using patient reported outcomes evaluating PCS and MCS, and subscale scores of SF-36® [acute version 2]) and functional disability (HAQ-DI©). Results: In canakinumab 150 mg group, the most severe impairment at baseline was reported for physical functioning and bodily pain; levels of 41.5 and 36.0, respectively, which improved in 7 days to 80.0 and 72.2 (mean increases of 39.0 and 35.6) and at 8 wks improved to 86.1 and 86.6 (mean increases of 44.6 and 50.6); these were higher than levels seen in the general US population. TA group, showed less improvement in 7 days (mean increases of 23.3 and 21.3 for physical function and bodily pain). Functional disability scores, measured by the HAQ-DI© decreased in both treatment groups (Table 1). Conclusions: Gouty arthritis patients treated with canakinumab showed a rapid improvement in physical and mental well-being based on SF-36® scores. In contrast to the TA group, patients treated with canakinumab showed improvement in 7 days in physical function and bodily pain approaching levels of the general population. Disclosure statement: U.A., A.F., V.M., D.R., P.S. and K.S. are employees and shareholders of Novartis Pharma AG. A.P. has received research support from Novartis Pharma AG. N.S. has received research support and consultancy fees from Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, has served on advisory boards for Novartis, Takeda, Savient, URL Pharma and EnzymeRx, and is/has been a member of a speakers' bureau for Takeda. A.S. has received consultation fees from Novartis Pharma AG, Abbott, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Essex, Pfizer, MSD, Roche, UCB and Wyeth. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Concurrent Oral 1 - Therapy of rheumatic disease: OP4. Effectiveness of Rituximab in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register (BSRBR)

Background: Rituximab (RTX) in combination with methotrexate (MTX) has been licensed since 2006 for the management of severe active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in patients who have failed at least one anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy. Published clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of RTX in improving both clinical symptoms and patients' physical function. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of RTX in RA patients treated in routine clinical practice by examining clinical and patient reported outcomes six months after receiving a first course of RTX. Methods: The analysis involved 550 RA patients registered with the BSRBR, who were starting RTX and were followed up for at least 6 months. Change in Disease Activity Score (DAS28) and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response were used to assess the clinical response while change in Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score was used to assess the physical function of the patients 6 months after starting RTX. The change in DAS28 and HAQ was compared between seronegative and seropositive patients and anti-TNF naïve patients versus anti-TNF failures. The response was also compared between patients receiving RTX in combination with MTX, other non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs) or no nbDMARDs. Results: The mean (s.d.) age of the cohort was 59 (12) years and 78% of the patients were females. The patients had a mean (s.d.) of 15 (10) years of disease duration. 16% were biologic naïve while 84% were anti-TNF failures. 32% of the patients were seronegative and 68% were seropositive. The mean (95% CI) DAS28 at baseline was 6.2 (6.1, 6.3) which decreased to 4.8 (4.7, 4.9) at 6 months of follow up. 16% were EULAR good responders, 43% were moderate responders and 41% were non responders. The mean (95% CI) change in HAQ was −0.1 (−0.2, −0.1) (Table 1). The mean change in DAS28 was similar in seropositive and seronegative patients (p = 0.18) while the anti-TNF naïve patients showed a greater reduction in DAS28 scores than anti-TNF failures (p = 0.05). Patients receiving RTX in combination with MTX showed similar changes in DAS28 and HAQ compared to patients receiving RTX alone or with other nbDMARDs. Conclusions: RTX has proven to be effective in the routine clinical practice. Anti-TNF naïve patients seem to benefit more from RTX treatment than anti-TNF failures. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

The effect of cataract on early stage glaucoma detection using spatial and temporal contrast sensitivity tests

Background: To investigate the effect of cataract on the ability of spatial and temporal contrast sensitivity tests used to detect early glaucoma. Methods: Twenty-seven glaucoma subjects with early cataract (mean age 60 ±10.2 years) which constituted the test group were recruited together with twenty-seven controls (cataract only) matched for age and cataract type from a primary eye care setting. Contrast sensitivity to flickering gratings at 20 Hz and stationary gratings with and without glare, were measured for 0.5, 1.5 and 3 cycles per degree (cpd) in central vision. Perimetry and structural measurements with the Heidelberg Retinal Tomograph (HRT) were also performed. Results: After considering the effect of cataract, contrast sensitivity to stationary gratings was reduced in the test group compared with controls with a statistically significant mean difference of 0.2 log units independent of spatial frequency. The flicker test showed a significant difference between test and control group at 1.5 and 3 cpd (p = 0.019 and p = 0.011 respectively). The percentage of glaucoma patients who could not see the temporal modulation was much higher compared with their cataract only counterparts. A significant correlation was found between the reduction of contrast sensitivity caused by glare and the Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS) as measured with the HRT (p<0.005). Conclusions: These findings indicate that both spatial and temporal contrast sensitivity tests are suitable for distinguishing between vision loss as a consequence of glaucoma and vision loss caused by cataract only. The correlation between glare factor and GPS suggests that there may be an increase in intraocular stray light in glaucoma