Prospects for CDM sub-halo detection using high angular resolution observations

In the CDM scenario, dark matter halos are assembled hierarchically from smaller subunits. A long-standing problem with this picture is that the number of sub-halos predicted by CDM simulations is orders of magnitudes higher than the known number of satellite galaxies in the vicinity of the Milky Way. A plausible way out of this problem could be that the majority of these sub-halos somehow have so far evaded detection. If such "dark galaxies" do indeed exist, gravitational lensing may offer one of the most promising ways to detect them. Dark matter sub-halos in the 1e6 - 1e10 solar mass range should cause strong gravitational lensing on (sub)milliarcsecond scales. We study the feasibility of a strong lensing detection of dark sub-halos by deriving the image separations expected for density profiles favoured by recent simulations and comparing these to the angular resolution of both existing and upcoming observational facilities. We find that there is a reasonable probability to detect sub-halo lensing effects in high resolution observations at radio wavelengths, such as produced by the upcoming VSOP-2 satellite, and thereby test the existence of dark galaxies.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, Proceedings for "The Universe under the Microscope" (AHAR 2008), held in Bad Honnef (Germany) in April 2008, to be published in Journal of Physics: Conference Series by Institute of Physics Publishing, R. Schoedel, A. Eckart, S. Pfalzner, and E. Ros (eds.

Strong lensing by subhalos in the dwarf-galaxy mass range I: Image separations

The cold dark matter scenario predicts that a large number of dark subhalos should be located within the halo of each Milky-way sized galaxy. One tell-tale signature of such dark subhalos could be additional milliarcsecond-scale image splitting of quasars previously known to be multiply-imaged on arcsecond scales. Here, we estimate the image separations for the subhalo density profiles favoured by recent N-body simulations, and compare these to the angular resolution of both existing and upcoming observational facilities. We find, that the image separations produced are very sensitive to the exact subhalo density profile assumed, but in all cases considerably smaller than previous estimates based on the premise that subhalos can be approximated by singular isothermal spheres. Only the most optimistic subhalo models produce image separations that would be detectable with current technology, and many models produce image separations that will remain unresolved with all telescopes expected to become available in the foreseeable future. Detections of dark subhalos through image-splitting effects will therefore be far more challenging than currently believed, albeit not necessarily impossible.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Detection of minimal residual disease identifies differences in treatment response between T-ALL and precursor B-ALL

We performed sensitive polymerase chain reaction-based minimal residual disease (MRD) analyses on bone marrow samples at 9 follow-up time points in 71 children with T-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) and compared the results with the precursor B-lineage ALL (B-ALL) results (n = 210) of our previous study. At the first 5 follow-up time points, the frequency of MRD-positive patients and the MRD levels were higher in T-ALL than in precursor-B-ALL, reflecting the more frequent occurrence of resistant disease in T-ALL. Subsequently, patients were classified according to their MRD level at time point 1 (TP1), taken at the end of induction treatment (5 weeks), and at TP2 just before the start of consolidation treatment (3 months). Patients were considered at low risk if TP1 and TP2 were MRD negative and at high risk if MRD levels at TP1 and TP2 were 10(-3) or higher; remaining patients were considered at intermediate risk. The relative distribution of patients with T-ALL (n = 43) over the MRD-based risk groups differed significantly from that of precursor B-ALL (n = 109). Twenty-three percent of patients with T-ALL and 46% of patients with precursor B-ALL were classified in the low-risk group (P =.01) and had a 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) rate of 98% or greater. In contrast, 28% of patients with T-ALL were classified in the MRD-based high-risk group compared to only 11% of patients with precursor B-ALL (P =.02), and the RFS rates were 0% and 25%, respectively (P =.03). Not only was the distribution of patients with T-ALL different over the MRD-based risk groups, the prognostic value of MRD levels at TP1 and TP2 was higher in T-ALL (larger RFS gradient), and consistently higher RFS rates were found for MRD-negative T-ALL patients at the first 5 follow-up time points

A highly magnified supernova at z=1.703 behind the massive galaxy cluster Abell 1689

Our ability to study the most remote supernova explosions, crucial for the understanding of the evolution of the high-redshift universe and its expansion rate, is limited by the light collection capabilities of telescopes. However, nature offers unique opportunities to look beyond the range within reach of our unaided instruments thanks to the light-focusing power of massive galaxy clusters. Here we report on the discovery of one of the most distant supernovae ever found, at redshift, z=1.703. Due to a lensing magnification factor of 4.3\pm0.3, we are able to measure a lightcurve of the supernova, as well as spectroscopic features of the host galaxy with a precision comparable to what will otherwise only be possible with future generation telescopes.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted to ApJ

Yersinia pestis Lineages in Mongolia

BACKGROUND: Whole genome sequencing allowed the development of a number of high resolution sequence based typing tools for Yersinia (Y.) pestis. The application of these methods on isolates from most known foci worldwide and in particular from China and the Former Soviet Union has dramatically improved our understanding of the population structure of this species. In the current view, Y. pestis including the non or moderate human pathogen Y. pestis subspecies microtus emerged from Yersinia pseudotuberculosis about 2,600 to 28,600 years ago in central Asia. The majority of central Asia natural foci have been investigated. However these investigations included only few strains from Mongolia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Prokaryotic Repeats (CRISPR) analysis and Multiple-locus variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) analysis (MLVA) with 25 loci was performed on 100 Y. pestis strains, isolated from 37 sampling areas in Mongolia. The resulting data were compared with previously published data from more than 500 plague strains, 130 of which had also been previously genotyped by single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis. The comparison revealed six main clusters including the three microtus biovars Ulegeica, Altaica, and Xilingolensis. The largest cluster comprises 78 isolates, with unique and new genotypes seen so far in Mongolia only. Typing of selected isolates by key SNPs was used to robustly assign the corresponding clusters to previously defined SNP branches. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We show that Mongolia hosts the most recent microtus clade (Ulegeica). Interestingly no representatives of the ancestral Y. pestis subspecies pestis nodes previously identified in North-western China were identified in this study. This observation suggests that the subsequent evolution steps within Y. pestis pestis did not occur in Mongolia. Rather, Mongolia was most likely re-colonized by more recent clades coming back from China contemporary of the black death pandemic, or more recently in the past 600 years

Overestimation of Postpartum Depression Prevalence Based on a 5-item Version of the EPDS:Systematic Review and Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis

Objective:The Maternal Mental Health in Canada, 2018/2019, survey reported that 18% of 7,085 mothers who recently gave birth reported "feelings consistent with postpartum depression" based on scores >= 7 on a 5-item version of the Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale (EPDS-5). The EPDS-5 was designed as a screening questionnaire, not to classify disorders or estimate prevalence; the extent to which EPDS-5 results reflect depression prevalence is unknown. We investigated EPDS-5 >= 7 performance relative to major depression prevalence based on a validated diagnostic interview, the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM (SCID).Methods:We searched Medline, Medline In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science Core Collection through June 2016 for studies with data sets with item response data to calculate EPDS-5 scores and that used the SCID to ascertain depression status. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to estimate pooled percentage of EPDS-5 >= 7, pooled SCID major depression prevalence, and the pooled difference in prevalence.Results:A total of 3,958 participants from 19 primary studies were included. Pooled prevalence of SCID major depression was 9.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0% to 13.7%), pooled percentage of participants with EPDS-5 >= 7 was 16.2% (95% CI 10.7% to 23.8%), and pooled difference was 8.0% (95% CI 2.9% to 13.2%). In the 19 included studies, mean and median ratios of EPDS-5 to SCID prevalence were 2.1 and 1.4 times.Conclusions:Prevalence estimated based on EPDS-5 >= 7 appears to be substantially higher than the prevalence of major depression. Validated diagnostic interviews should be used to establish prevalence

Comparison of major depression diagnostic classification probability using the SCID, CIDI, and MINI diagnostic interviews among women in pregnancy or postpartum: An individual participant data meta-analysis

Objectives A previous individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) identified differences in major depression classification rates between different diagnostic interviews, controlling for depressive symptoms on the basis of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. We aimed to determine whether similar results would be seen in a different population, using studies that administered the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) in pregnancy or postpartum. Methods Data accrued for an EPDS diagnostic accuracy IPDMA were analysed. Binomial generalised linear mixed models were fit to compare depression classification odds for the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM (SCID), controlling for EPDS scores and participant characteristics. Results Among fully structured interviews, the MINI (15 studies, 2,532 participants, 342 major depression cases) classified depression more often than the CIDI (3 studies, 2,948 participants, 194 major depression cases; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.21, 11.43]). Compared with the semistructured SCID (28 studies, 7,403 participants, 1,027 major depression cases), odds with the CIDI (interaction aOR = 0.88, 95% CI [0.85, 0.92]) and MINI (interaction aOR = 0.95, 95% CI [0.92, 0.99]) increased less as EPDS scores increased. Conclusion Different interviews may not classify major depression equivalently

Depression prevalence using the HADS-D compared to SCID major depression classification:An individual participant data meta-analysis

Objectives: Validated diagnostic interviews are required to classify depression status and estimate prevalence of disorder, but screening tools are often used instead. We used individual participant data meta-analysis to compare prevalence based on standard Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale – depression subscale (HADS-D) cutoffs of ≥8 and ≥11 versus Structured Clinical Interview for DSM (SCID) major depression and determined if an alternative HADS-D cutoff could more accurately estimate prevalence. Methods: We searched Medline, Medline In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations via Ovid, PsycINFO, and Web of Science (inception-July 11, 2016) for studies comparing HADS-D scores to SCID major depression status. Pooled prevalence and pooled differences in prevalence for HADS-D cutoffs versus SCID major depression were estimated. Results: 6005 participants (689 SCID major depression cases) from 41 primary studies were included. Pooled prevalence was 24.5% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 20.5%, 29.0%) for HADS-D ≥8, 10.7% (95% CI: 8.3%, 13.8%) for HADS-D ≥11, and 11.6% (95% CI: 9.2%, 14.6%) for SCID major depression. HADS-D ≥11 was closest to SCID major depression prevalence, but the 95% prediction interval for the difference that could be expected for HADS-D ≥11 versus SCID in a new study was −21.1% to 19.5%. Conclusions: HADS-D ≥8 substantially overestimates depression prevalence. Of all possible cutoff thresholds, HADS-D ≥11 was closest to the SCID, but there was substantial heterogeneity in the difference between HADS-D ≥11 and SCID-based estimates. HADS-D should not be used as a substitute for a validated diagnostic interview.This study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR, KRS-144045 & PCG 155468). Ms. Neupane was supported by a G.R. Caverhill Fellowship from the Faculty of Medicine, McGill University. Drs. Levis and Wu were supported by Fonds de recherche du Québec - Santé (FRQS) Postdoctoral Training Fellowships. Mr. Bhandari was supported by a studentship from the Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre. Ms. Rice was supported by a Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship. Dr. Patten was supported by a Senior Health Scholar award from Alberta Innovates, Health Solutions. The primary study by Scott et al. was supported by the Cumming School of Medicine and Alberta Health Services through the Calgary Health Trust, and funding from the Hotchkiss Brain Institute. The primary study by Amoozegar et al. was supported by the Alberta Health Services, the University of Calgary Faculty of Medicine, and the Hotchkiss Brain Institute. The primary study by Cheung et al. was supported by the Waikato Clinical School, University of Auckland, the Waikato Medical Research Foundation and the Waikato Respiratory Research Fund. The primary study by Cukor et al. was supported in part by a Promoting Psychological Research and Training on Health-Disparities Issues at Ethnic Minority Serving Institutions Grants (ProDIGs) awarded to Dr. Cukor from the American Psychological Association. The primary study by De Souza et al. was supported by Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health Foundation Trust. The primary study by Honarmand et al. was supported by a grant from the Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada. The primary study by Fischer et al. was supported as part of the RECODEHF study by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01GY1150). The primary study by Gagnon et al. was supported by the Drummond Foundation and the Department of Psychiatry, University Health Network. The primary study by Akechi et al. was supported in part by a Grant-in-Aid for Cancer Research (11−2) from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and a Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) from the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. The primary study by Kugaya et al. was supported in part by a Grant-in-Aid for Cancer Research (9–31) and the Second-Term Comprehensive 10-year Strategy for Cancer Control from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. The primary study Ryan et al. was supported by the Irish Cancer Society (Grant CRP08GAL). The primary study by Keller et al. was supported by the Medical Faculty of the University of Heidelberg (grant no. 175/2000). The primary study by Love et al. (2004) was supported by the Kathleen Cuningham Foundation (National Breast Cancer Foundation), the Cancer Council of Victoria and the National Health and Medical Research Council. The primary study by Love et al. (2002) was supported by a grant from the Bethlehem Griffiths Research Foundation. The primary study by Löwe et al. was supported by the medical faculty of the University of Heidelberg, Germany (Project 121/2000). The primary study by Navines et al. was supported in part by the Spanish grants from the Fondo de Investigación en Salud, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (EO PI08/90869 and PSIGEN-VHC Study: FIS-E08/00268) and the support of FEDER (one way to make Europe). The primary study by O'Rourke et al. was supported by the Scottish Home and Health Department, Stroke Association, and Medical Research Council. The primary study by Sanchez-Gistau et al. was supported by a grant from the Ministry of Health of Spain (PI040418) and in part by Catalonia Government, DURSI 2009SGR1119. The primary study by Gould et al. was supported by the Transport Accident Commission Grant. The primary study by Rooney et al. was supported by the NHS Lothian Neuro-Oncology Endowment Fund. The primary study by Schwarzbold et al. was supported by PRONEX Program (NENASC Project) and PPSUS Program of Fundaçao de Amparo a esquisa e Inovacao do Estado de Santa Catarina (FAPESC) and the National Science and Technology Institute for Translational Medicine (INCT-TM). The primary study by Simard et al. was supported by IDEA grants from the Canadian Prostate Cancer Research Initiative and the Canadian Breast Cancer Research Alliance, as well as a studentship from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. The primary study by Singer et al. (2009) was supported by a grant from the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (no. 01ZZ0106). The primary study by Singer et al. (2008) was supported by grants from the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (# 7DZAIQTX) and of the University of Leipzig (# formel. 1–57). The primary study by Meyer et al. was supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The primary study by Stone et al. was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK and Chest Heart and Stroke, Scotland. The primary study by Turner et al. was supported by a bequest from Jennie Thomas through Hunter Medical Research Institute. The primary study by Walterfang et al. was supported by Melbourne Health. Drs. Benedetti and Thombs were supported by FRQS researcher salary awards. No other authors reported funding for primary studies or for their work on this study. No funder had any role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication

Human plague: An old scourge that needs new answers

Yersinia pestis, the bacterial causative agent of plague, remains an important threat to human health. Plague is a rodent-borne disease that has historically shown an outstanding ability to colonize and persist across different species, habitats, and environments while provoking sporadic cases, outbreaks, and deadly global epidemics among humans. Between September and November 2017, an outbreak of urban pneumonic plague was declared in Madagascar, which refocused the attention of the scientific community on this ancient human scourge. Given recent trends and plague’s resilience to control in the wild, its high fatality rate in humans without early treatment, and its capacity to disrupt social and healthcare systems, human plague should be considered as a neglected threat. A workshop was held in Paris in July 2018 to review current knowledge about plague and to identify the scientific research priorities to eradicate plague as a human threat. It was concluded that an urgent commitment is needed to develop and fund a strong research agenda aiming to fill the current knowledge gaps structured around 4 main axes: (i) an improved understanding of the ecological interactions among the reservoir, vector, pathogen, and environment; (ii) human and societal responses; (iii) improved diagnostic tools and case management; and (iv) vaccine development. These axes should be cross-cutting, translational, and focused on delivering context-specific strategies. Results of this research should feed a global control and prevention strategy within a “One Health” approach