Empirical Findings on Motor Insurance Pricing in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland

This paper focuses on recent developments in motor insurance pricing in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Through the analysis of responses to a recent comprehensive survey of industry representatives, we examine the various premium components and the processes involved in premium adaptation. New findings on the use of different tariff criteria, on the tools used for market-based and customer-specific pricing, and on the information considered for customer valuation are reported. We also address the integration of the insurance sales staff in the pricing process. With regard to premium adjustments and the introduction of new tariffs, we examine the frequency, time required and costs incurred. With this paper, we contribute to a strand of literature where little academic research has been done so far. In addition, our results entail managerial implications for improving industry practices in insurance pricing

The puzzling temporally variable optical and X-ray afterglow of GRB 101024A

Aim: To present the optical observations of the afterglow of GRB 101024A and to try to reconcile these observations with the X-ray afterglow data of GRB 101024A using current afterglow models Method: We employ early optical observations using the Zadko Telescope combined with X-ray data and compare with the reverse shock/forward shock model. Results: The early optical light curve reveals a very unusual steep decay index of alpha~5. This is followed by a flattening and possibly a plateau phase coincident with a similar feature in the X-ray. We discuss these observations in the framework of the standard reverse shock/forward shock model and energy injection.We note that the plateau phase might also be the signature of the formation of a new magnetar.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Diagnosis-related deterioration of lung function after extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

The aim of the study was to assess lung function longitudinally after neonatal extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), and to identify any effects of diagnosis and perinatal characteristics. 121 neonatal ECMO-treated children (70 with meconium aspiration syndrome, 20 congenital diaphragmatic hernia and 31 with other diagnoses) performed a total of 191 lung function measurements at 5, 8 and/or 12 yrs. We assessed dynamic and static lung volumes, reversibility of airway obstruction and diffusion capacity. Mean SDS forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) at 5 yrs before and after bronchodilation (-0.51 and 0.07) was significantly higher than at 8 (-0.79 and -0.4; p<0.04) and 12 yrs (-1.10 and -0.52; p<0.003). Mean SDS for all spirometric parameters before and after bronchodilation were significantly lower in the congenital diaphragmatic hernia group compared with the other diagnostic groups (all p</=0.025). A significant volume of trapped air was observed in 86% patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 50% with meconium aspiration syndrome and 58% with other diagnoses. After bronchodilation, mean SDS FEV(1) and forced vital capacity were negatively influenced by duration of ventilation (both p<0.001) and duration of ECMO (p=0.003 and p=0.02, respectively). Long-term pulmonary sequelae after neonatal ECMO-treatment mainly occur in congenital diaphragmatic hernia patients and tend to deteriorate over time

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling accelerates lake thermal responses to a warming world

Climate change, in particular the increase in air temperature, has been shown to influence lake thermal dynamics, with climatic warming resulting in higher surface temperatures, stronger stratification, and altered mixing regimes. Less-studied is the influence on lake thermal dynamics of atmospheric stilling, the decrease in near-surface wind speed observed in recent decades. Here we use a lake model to assess the influence of atmospheric stilling, on lake thermal dynamics across the Northern Hemisphere. From 1980-2016, lake thermal responses to warming have accelerated as a result of atmospheric stilling. Lake surface temperatures and thermal stability have changed at respective rates of 0.33 and 0.38°C decade-1, with atmospheric stilling contributing 15 and 27% of the calculated changes, respectively. Atmospheric stilling also resulted in a lengthening of stratification, contributing 23% of the calculated changes. Our results demonstrate that atmospheric stilling has influenced lake thermal responses to warming

Toward an optimal search strategy of optical and gravitational wave emissions from binary neutron star coalescence

Observations of an optical source coincident with gravitational wave emission detected from a binary neutron star coalescence will improve the confidence of detection, provide host galaxy localisation, and test models for the progenitors of short gamma ray bursts. We employ optical observations of three short gamma ray bursts, 050724, 050709, 051221, to estimate the detection rate of a coordinated optical and gravitational wave search of neutron star mergers. Model R-band optical afterglow light curves of these bursts that include a jet-break are extrapolated for these sources at the sensitivity horizon of an Advanced LIGO/Virgo network. Using optical sensitivity limits of three telescopes, namely TAROT (m=18), Zadko (m=21) and an (8-10) meter class telescope (m=26), we approximate detection rates and cadence times for imaging. We find a median coincident detection rate of 4 yr^{-1} for the three bursts. GRB 050724 like bursts, with wide opening jet angles, offer the most optimistic rate of 13 coincident detections yr^{-1}, and would be detectable by Zadko up to five days after the trigger. Late time imaging to m=26 could detect off-axis afterglows for GRB 051221 like bursts several months after the trigger. For a broad distribution of beaming angles, the optimal strategy for identifying the optical emissions triggered by gravitational wave detectors is rapid response searches with robotic telescopes followed by deeper imaging at later times if an afterglow is not detected within several days of the trigger.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, Accepted for publication in MNRAS Letters (2011 April 22

Wind and trophic status explain within and among‐lake variability of algal biomass

Phytoplankton biomass and production regulates key aspects of freshwater ecosystems yet its variability and subsequent predictability is poorly understood. We estimated within‐lake variation in biomass using high‐frequency chlorophyll fluorescence data from 18 globally distributed lakes. We tested how variation in fluorescence at monthly, daily, and hourly scales was related to high‐frequency variability of wind, water temperature, and radiation within lakes as well as productivity and physical attributes among lakes. Within lakes, monthly variation dominated, but combined daily and hourly variation were equivalent to that expressed monthly. Among lakes, biomass variability increased with trophic status while, within‐lake biomass variation increased with increasing variability in wind speed. Our results highlight the benefits of high‐frequency chlorophyll monitoring and suggest that predicted changes associated with climate, as well as ongoing cultural eutrophication, are likely to substantially increase the temporal variability of algal biomass and thus the predictability of the services it provides

A High Spatial Resolution Study of the &lambda;=3 mm Continuum of Orion-KL

Recent interferometric observations have called into question the traditional view of the Orion-KL region, which displays one of the most well-defined cases of chemical differentiation in a star-forming region. Previous, lower-resolution images of Orion-KL show emission signatures for oxygen-bearing organic molecules toward the Orion Compact Ridge, and emission for nitrogen-bearing organic molecules toward the Orion Hot Core. However, more recent observations at higher spatial resolution indicate that the bulk of the molecular emission is arising from many smaller, compact clumps that are spatially distinct from the traditional Hot Core and Compact Ridge sources. It is this type of observational information that is critical for guiding astrochemical models, as the spatial distribution of molecules and their relation to energetic sources will govern the chemical mechanisms at play in star-forming regions. We have conducted millimeter imaging studies of Orion-KL with various beam sizes using CARMA in order to investigate the continuum structure. These \lambda;=3mm observations have synthesized beam sizes of ~0.5"-5.0". These observations reveal the complex continuum structure of this region, which stands in sharp contrast to the previous structural models assumed for Orion-KL based on lower spatial resolution images. The new results indicate that the spatial scaling previously used in determination of molecular abundances for this region are in need of complete revision. Here we present the results of the continuum observations, discuss the sizes and structures of the detected sources, and suggest an observational strategy for determining the proper spatial scaling to accurately determine molecular abundances in the Orion-KL region.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Lake-size dependency of wind shear and convection as controls on gas exchange

High-frequency physical observations from 40 temperate lakes were used to examine the relative contributions of wind shear (u*) and convection (w*) to turbulence in the surface mixed layer. Seasonal patterns of u* and w* were dissimilar; u* was often highest in the spring, while w * increased throughout the summer to a maximum in early fall. Convection was a larger mixed-layer turbulence source than wind shear (u */w*-1 for lakes* and w* differ in temporal pattern and magnitude across lakes, both convection and wind shear should be considered in future formulations of lake-air gas exchange, especially for small lakes. © 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.Jordan S. Read, David P. Hamilton, Ankur R. Desai, Kevin C. Rose, Sally MacIntyre, John D. Lenters, Robyn L. Smyth, Paul C. Hanson, Jonathan J. Cole, Peter A. Staehr, James A. Rusak, Donald C. Pierson, Justin D. Brookes, Alo Laas, and Chin H. W