Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

A proposal for a common nomenclature for viral clades that form the species varicella-zoster virus: summary of VZV Nomenclature Meeting 2008, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, 24–25 July 2008

Varicella-zoster virus (VZV), the cause of chickenpox and zoster, was the first human herpesvirus to be sequenced fully and the first for which vaccines have been licensed and widely used. Three groups have published genotyping schemes based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and, between them, have identified five distinct phylogenetic clades, with an additional two putative clades. Sequencing of over 23 whole VZV genomes from around the world further refined the phylogenetic distinctions between SNP genotypes. Widespread surveillance in countries in which the varicella vaccine is now in use and the difficulties posed by three unique genotyping approaches prompted an international meeting, at which a common nomenclature based on phylogenetic clades was agreed upon. In this paper, we review the original genotyping schemes and discuss the basis for a novel common nomenclature for VZV strains. We propose a minimum set of SNPs that we recommend should be used to genotype these viruses. Finally, we suggest criteria by which novel clades can be recognized

Royal and Lordly Residence in Scotland c 1050 to c 1250: an Historiographical Review and Critical Revision

Academic study of eleventh to thirteenth century high status residence in Scotland has been largely bypassed by the English debates over origin, function and symbolism. Archaeologists have also been slow to engage with three decades of historical revision of traditional socio-economic, cultural and political models upon which their interpretations of royal and lordly residence have drawn. Scottish castle-studies of the pre-1250 era continue to be framed by a ‘military architecture’ historiographical tradition and a view of the castle as an alien artefact imposed on the land by foreign adventurers and a ‘modernising’ monarchy and native Gaelic nobility. Knowledge and understanding of pre-twelfth century native high status sites is rudimentary and derived primarily from often inappropriate analogy with English examples. Discussion of native responses to the imported castle-building culture is founded upon retrospective projection of inappropriate later medieval social and economic models and anachronistic perceptions of military colonialism. Cultural and socio-economic difference is rarely recognised in archaeological modelling and cultural determinism has distorted perceptions of structural form, social status and material values. A programme of interdisciplinary studies focused on specific sites is necessary to provide a corrective to this current situation

Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic

Reproduction numbers, defined as averages of the number of people infected by a typical case, play a central role in tracking infectious disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimating reproduction numbers which are simple enough that they could be applied with limited data or in real time during an outbreak. I present a new estimator for the individual reproduction number, which describes the state of the epidemic at a point in time rather than tracking individuals over time, and discuss some potential benefits. Then, to capture more of the detail that micro-simulations have shown is important in outbreak dynamics, I analyse a model of transmission within and between households, and develop a method to estimate the household reproduction number, defined as the number of households infected by each infected household. This method is validated by numerical simulations of the spread of influenza and measles using historical data, and estimates are obtained for would-be emerging epidemics of these viruses. I argue that the household reproduction number is useful in assessing the impact of measures that target the household for isolation, quarantine, vaccination or prophylactic treatment, and measures such as social distancing and school or workplace closures which limit between-household transmission, all of which play a key role in current thinking on future infectious disease mitigation

Changes in vegetation and soil characteristics in coastal sand dunes along a gradient of atmospheric nitrogen deposition

A field survey was conducted to detect signals of atmospheric nitrogen (N) in 11 dune systems along a nitrogen deposition gradient in the United Kingdom. In the mobile and semi-fixed dunes, above-ground biomass was positively related to N inputs. This increase was largely due to increased height and cover of Ammophila arenaria. In the long term, this increased biomass may lead to increased organic matter accumulation and consequently accelerated soil development. In the fixed dunes, above ground biomass also showed a positive relationship with N inputs as did soil C : N ratio while soil available N was negatively related to N inputs. Plant species richness was negatively related to N inputs. In the dune slacks, while soil and bulk vegetation parameters showed no relationship with N inputs, cover of Carex arenaria and Hypochaeris radicata increased. Site mean Ellenberg N numbers showed no relationship with N deposition either within habitats or across the whole dataset. Neither abundance-weighting nor inclusion of the Siebel numbers for bryophytes improved the relationship. The survey reveals that the relationships of soil and vegetation with atmospheric N deposition vary between sand dune habitats but, despite this variability, clear correlations with N inputs exist. While this survey cannot establish causality, on the basis of the relationships observed we suggest a critical load range of 10 - 20 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) for coastal sand dunes in the UK

Impact of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia on patients’ quality of life: a patient-reported outcomes survey

Background: The impact of herpes zoster (HZ) and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) on patients’ quality of life (QoL) is currently poorly documented. Subjects and methods: Telephone interviews in Germany identified patients ≥50 years old with painful HZ diagnosed during the previous 5 years. Bespoke questions evaluated previous HZ episodes. Results: Of 11,009 respondents, 280 met the screening criteria, and 32 (11%) developed PHN. PHN was associated with significantly worse outcomes than HZ (all P < 0.05). Mean pain scores associated with PHN and HZ, respectively, were 7.1 and 6.2 (average) and 8.2 and 7.0 (worst). Many patients with PHN (91%) and HZ (73%) experienced problems with daily activities, including work, studies, housework, family and leisure activities. Mean pain interference scores in patients with PHN versus HZ were highest for sleep (6.5 versus 4.9), normal work (6.1 versus 4.4) and mood (5.9 versus 4.4). Most employed interviewees with PHN (70%) and HZ (64%) stopped work during the disease. Pain and QoL outcomes were not significantly different between all patients versus those diagnosed during the previous 12 months or between patients aged 50–59 years versus ≥60 years. Conclusions: HZ causes substantial pain, which seriously interferes with many aspects of daily life, particularly in patients with PHN

Assessing and mapping language, attention and executive multidimensional deficits in stroke aphasia.

There is growing awareness that aphasia following a stroke can include deficits in other cognitive functions and that these are predictive of certain aspects of language function, recovery and rehabilitation. However, data on attentional and executive (dys)functions in individuals with stroke aphasia are still scarce and the relationship to underlying lesions is rarely explored. Accordingly in this investigation, an extensive selection of standardized non-verbal neuropsychological tests was administered to 38 individuals with chronic post-stroke aphasia, in addition to detailed language testing and MRI. To establish the core components underlying the variable patients' performance, behavioural data were explored with rotated principal component analyses, first separately for the non-verbal and language tests, then in a combined analysis including all tests. Three orthogonal components for the non-verbal tests were extracted, which were interpreted as shift-update, inhibit-generate and speed. Three components were also extracted for the language tests, representing phonology, semantics and speech quanta. Individual continuous scores on each component were then included in a voxel-based correlational methodology analysis, yielding significant clusters for all components. The shift-update component was associated with a posterior left temporo-occipital and bilateral medial parietal cluster, the inhibit-generate component was mainly associated with left frontal and bilateral medial frontal regions, and the speed component with several small right-sided fronto-parieto-occipital clusters. Two complementary multivariate brain-behaviour mapping methods were also used, which showed converging results. Together the results suggest that a range of brain regions are involved in attention and executive functioning, and that these non-language domains play a role in the abilities of patients with chronic aphasia. In conclusion, our findings confirm and extend our understanding of the multidimensionality of stroke aphasia, emphasize the importance of assessing non-verbal cognition in this patient group and provide directions for future research and clinical practice. We also briefly compare and discuss univariate and multivariate methods for brain-behaviour mapping

Postherpetic Neuralgia: Role of Gabapentin and Other Treatment Modalities

Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) is a chronic and painful condition that may occur after a herpes zoster infection. The frequency of PHN after untreated zoster varies widely. Age is the most important risk factor for development of PHN. The condition occurs in an estimated 50% of patients older than 50 years. The pain of PHN can be severe and debilitating and is frequently associated with allodynia. Although in most patients pain remits within the first year, it may persist for a lifetime. Tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs), topical agents, opioids, and gabapentin, a structural Γ-amino butyric acid (GABA) analogue, are the only agents that have demonstrated efficacy in randomized clinical trials for treatment of both the shooting and the burning form of pain associated with PHN. TCAs are among the most commonly used classes of agents for treating PHN and are effective in a significant proportion of patients. However, various adverse events can limit treatment. These side effects tend to be more acute in the elderly, the population most likely to suffer from PHN. Topical agents have led to mild to moderate improvement in patients with PHN but are usually ineffective as monotherapy for this condition. Until recently, carbamazepine was the only antiepileptic drug evaluated for the treatment of PHN. Over the past few years, however, gabapentin has received increasing attention as a useful treatment for neuropathic pain. Gabapentin lacks significant drug-drug interactions and has a favorable safety profile, which makes it particularly useful for treatment of PHN.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65597/1/j.1528-1157.1999.tb00933.x.pd

A Biological Model for Influenza Transmission: Pandemic Planning Implications of Asymptomatic Infection and Immunity

Background: The clinical attack rate of influenza is influenced by prior immunity and mixing patterns in the host population, and also by the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic. This complexity makes it difficult to directly estimate R0 from the attack rate, contributing to uncertainty in epidemiological models to guide pandemic planning. We have modelled multiple wave outbreaks of influenza from different populations to allow for changing immunity and asymptomatic infection and to make inferences about R0. \ud \ud Data and Methods. On the island of Tristan da Cunha (TdC), 96% of residents reported illness during an H3N2 outbreak in 1971, compared with only 25% of RAF personnel in military camps during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used to estimate model parameter distributions. \ud \ud Findings. We estimated that most islanders on TdC were non-immune (susceptible) before the first wave, and that almost all exposures of susceptible persons caused symptoms. The median R0 of 6.4 (95% credibility interval 3.7–10.7) implied that most islanders were exposed twice, although only a minority became ill in the second wave because of temporary protection following the first wave. In contrast, only 51% of RAF personnel were susceptible before the first wave, and only 38% of exposed susceptibles reported symptoms. R0 in this population was also lower [2.9 (2.3–4.3)], suggesting reduced viral transmission in a partially immune population. \ud \ud Interpretation: Our model implies that the RAF population was partially protected before the summer pandemic wave of 1918, arguably because of prior exposure to interpandemic influenza. Without such protection, each symptomatic case of influenza would transmit to between 2 and 10 new cases, with incidence initially doubling every 1–2 days. Containment of a novel virus could be more difficult than hitherto supposed

The PINE study: rationale and design of a randomised comparison of epidural injection of local anaesthetics and steroids versus care-as-usual to prevent postherpetic neuralgia in the elderly [ISRCTN32866390]

BACKGROUND: Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) is by far the most common complication of herpes zoster (HZ) and one of the most intractable pain disorders. Since PHN is seen most often in the elderly, the number of patients with this disorder is expected to increase in our ageing society. PHN may last for months to years and has a high impact on the quality of life. The results of PHN treatment are rather disappointing. Epidural injection of local anaesthetics and steroids in the acute phase of HZ is a promising therapy for the prevention of PHN. Since randomised trials on the effectiveness of this intervention are lacking, the PINE (Prevention by epidural Injection of postherpetic Neuralgia in the Elderly) study was set up. The PINE study compares the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a single epidural injection of local anaesthetics and steroids during the acute phase of HZ with that of care-as-usual (i.e. antivirals and analgesics) in preventing PHN in elderly patients. METHODS / DESIGN: The PINE study is an open, multicenter clinical trial in which 550 elderly (age ≥ 50 yr.) patients who consult their general practitioner in the acute phase of HZ (rash < 7 days) are randomised to one of the treatment groups. The primary clinical endpoint is the presence of HZ-related pain one month after the onset of the rash. Secondary endpoints include duration and severity of pain, re-interventions aiming to treat the existing pain, side effects, quality of life, and cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSION: The PINE study is aimed to quantify the (cost-) effectiveness of a single epidural injection during the acute phase of HZ on the prevention of PHN