Trust-Based Mechanisms for Robust and Efficient Task Allocation in the Presence of Execution Uncertainty

Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanisms are often used to allocate tasks to selfish and rational agents. VCG mechanisms are incentive-compatible, direct mechanisms that are efficient (i.e. maximise social utility) and individually rational (i.e. agents prefer to join rather than opt out). However, an important assumption of these mechanisms is that the agents will always successfully complete their allocated tasks. Clearly, this assumption is unrealistic in many real-world applications where agents can, and often do, fail in their endeavours. Moreover, whether an agent is deemed to have failed may be perceived differently by different agents. Such subjective perceptions about an agent’s probability of succeeding at a given task are often captured and reasoned about using the notion of trust. Given this background, in this paper, we investigate the design of novel mechanisms that take into account the trust between agents when allocating tasks. Specifically, we develop a new class of mechanisms, called trust-based mechanisms, that can take into account multiple subjective measures of the probability of an agent succeeding at a given task and produce allocations that maximise social utility, whilst ensuring that no agent obtains a negative utility. We then show that such mechanisms pose a challenging new combinatorial optimisation problem (that is NP-complete), devise a novel representation for solving the problem, and develop an effective integer programming solution (that can solve instances with about 2×105 possible allocations in 40 seconds).

The Importance of Body Weight for the Dose Response Relationship of Oral Vitamin D Supplementation and Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D in Healthy Volunteers

Unlike vitamin D recommendations by the Institute of Medicine, the Clinical Practice Guidelines by the Endocrine Society acknowledge body weight differentials and recommend obese subjects be given two to three times more vitamin D to satisfy their body's vitamin D requirement. However, the Endocrine Society also acknowledges that there are no good studies that clearly justify this. In this study we examined the combined effect of vitamin D supplementation and body weight on serum 25-hydroxyvitamin (25(OH)D) and serum calcium in healthy volunteers. We analyzed 22,214 recordings of vitamin D supplement use and serum 25(OH)D from 17,614 healthy adult volunteers participating in a preventive health program. This program encourages the use of vitamin D supplementation and monitors its use and serum 25(OH)D and serum calcium levels. Participants reported vitamin D supplementation ranging from 0 to 55,000 IU per day and had serum 25(OH)D levels ranging from 10.1 to 394 nmol/L. The dose response relationship between vitamin D supplementation and serum 25(OH)D followed an exponential curve. On average, serum 25(OH)D increased by 12.0 nmol/L per 1,000 IU in the supplementation interval of 0 to 1,000 IU per day and by 1.1 nmol/L per 1,000 IU in the supplementation interval of 15,000 to 20,000 IU per day. BMI, relative to absolute body weight, was found to be the better determinant of 25(OH)D. Relative to normal weight subjects, obese and overweight participants had serum 25(OH)D that were on average 19.8 nmol/L and 8.0 nmol/L lower, respectively (P<0.001). We did not observe any increase in the risk for hypercalcemia with increasing vitamin D supplementation. We recommend vitamin D supplementation be 2 to 3 times higher for obese subjects and 1.5 times higher for overweight subjects relative to normal weight subjects. This observational study provides body weight specific recommendations to achieve 25(OH)D targets

Trust-based mechanisms for robust and efficient task allocation in the presence of execution uncertainty

Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanisms are often used to allocate tasks to selfish and rational agents. VCG mechanisms are incentive-compatible, direct mechanisms that are efficient (i.e. maximise social utility) and individually rational (i.e. agents prefer to join rather than opt out). However, an important assumption of these mechanisms is that the agents will always successfully complete their allocated tasks. Clearly, this assumption is unrealistic in many real-world applications where agents can, and often do, fail in their endeavours. Moreover, whether an agent is deemed to have failed may be perceived differently by different agents. Such subjective perceptions about an agent’s probability of succeeding at a given task are often captured and reasoned about using the notion of trust. Given this background, in this paper, we investigate the design of novel mechanisms that take into account the trust between agents when allocating tasks. Specifically, we develop a new class of mechanisms, called trust-based mechanisms, that can take into account multiple subjective measures of the probability of an agent succeeding at a given task and produce allocations that maximise social utility, whilst ensuring that no agent obtains a negative utility. We then show that such mechanisms pose a challenging new combinatorial optimisation problem (that is NP-complete), devise a novel representation for solving the problem, and develop an effective integer programming solution (that can solve instances with about 2×105 possible allocations in 40 seconds)

Vitamin D Status and its Association with Morbidity including Wasting and Opportunistic Illnesses in HIV-Infected Women in Tanzania.

Vitamin D has a potential role in preventing HIV-related complications, based on its extensive involvement in immune and metabolic function, including preventing osteoporosis and premature cardiovascular disease. However, this association has not been examined in large studies or in resource-limited settings. Vitamin D levels were assessed in 884 HIV-infected pregnant women at enrollment in a trial of multivitamin supplementation (excluding vitamin D) in Tanzania. Information on HIV related complications was recorded during follow-up (median, 70 months). Proportional hazards models and generalized estimating equations were used to assess the relationship of vitamin D status with these outcomes. Women with low vitamin D status (serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D<32 ng/mL) had 43% higher risk of reaching a body mass index (BMI) less than 18 kg/m(2) during the first 2 years of follow-up, compared to women with adequate vitamin D levels (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.43; 95% confidence intervals: [1.03-1.99]). The relationship between continuous vitamin D levels and risk of BMI less than 18 kg/m(2) during follow-up was inverse and linear (p=0.03). Women with low vitamin D levels had significantly higher incidence of acute upper respiratory infections (HR: 1.27 [1.04-1.54]) and thrush (HR: 2.74 [1.29-5.83]) diagnosed during the first 2 years of follow-up. Low vitamin D status was a significant risk factor for wasting and HIV-related complications such as thrush during follow-up in this prospective cohort in Tanzania. If these protective associations are confirmed in randomized trials, vitamin D supplementation could represent a simple and inexpensive method to improve health and quality of life of HIV-infected patients, particularly in resource-limited settings

Obesity, Type 2 Diabetes, Lifestyle Factors, and Risk of Gallstone Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Investigation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obesity, type 2 diabetes, and lifestyle factors (cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking, and coffee consumption) have been associated with the risk of developing gallstone disease in observational studies, but whether these associations are causal is undetermined. We conducted a Mendelian randomization study to assess these associations. METHODS: Genetic instruments associated with the exposures at the genome-wide significance (p < 5×10-8) level were selected from corresponding genome-wide associations studies (n=224 459 to 1 232 091 individuals). Summary-level data for gallstone disease were obtained from the UK Biobank (10 520 cases and 350 674 non-cases) and FinnGen consortium (11 675 cases and 121 348 non-cases). Univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses were conducted. Results from UK Biobank and FinnGen were combined using fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The odds ratios were 1.63 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.49, 1.79) for one standard deviation (SD) increase in body mass index, 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60, 2.05) for one SD increase in waist circumference, 1.13 (95% CI, 1.09, 1.17) for one unit increase in the log-odds ratio of type 2 diabetes and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.16, 1.34) for one SD increase in prevalence of smoking initiation. The associations for body mass index and type 2 diabetes persisted after mutual adjustment. Genetically predicted coffee consumption was inversely associated with gallstone disease after adjustment for body mass index and smoking (odds ratio per 50% increase 0.44, 95% CI, 0.21, 0.91). There was no association with alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports independent causal roles of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and smoking in gallstone disease

Whole grain consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all cause and cause specific mortality: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies

Objective To quantify the dose-response relation between consumption of whole grain and specific types of grains and the risk of cardiovascular disease, total cancer, and all cause and cause specific mortality. Data sources PubMed and Embase searched up to 3 April 2016. Study selection Prospective studies reporting adjusted relative risk estimates for the association between intake of whole grains or specific types of grains and cardiovascular disease, total cancer, all cause or cause specific mortality. Data synthesis Summary relative risks and 95% confidence intervals calculated with a random effects model. Results 45 studies (64 publications) were included. The summary relative risks per 90 g/day increase in whole grain intake (90 g is equivalent to three servings—for example, two slices of bread and one bowl of cereal or one and a half pieces of pita bread made from whole grains) was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.87; I2=9%, n=7 studies) for coronary heart disease, 0.88 (0.75 to 1.03; I2=56%, n=6) for stroke, and 0.78 (0.73 to 0.85; I2=40%, n=10) for cardiovascular disease, with similar results when studies were stratified by whether the outcome was incidence or mortality. The relative risks for morality were 0.85 (0.80 to 0.91; I2=37%, n=6) for total cancer, 0.83 (0.77 to 0.90; I2=83%, n=11) for all causes, 0.78 (0.70 to 0.87; I2=0%, n=4) for respiratory disease, 0.49 (0.23 to 1.05; I2=85%, n=4) for diabetes, 0.74 (0.56 to 0.96; I2=0%, n=3) for infectious diseases, 1.15 (0.66 to 2.02; I2=79%, n=2) for diseases of the nervous system disease, and 0.78 (0.75 to 0.82; I2=0%, n=5) for all non-cardiovascular, non-cancer causes. Reductions in risk were observed up to an intake of 210-225 g/day (seven to seven and a half servings per day) for most of the outcomes. Intakes of specific types of whole grains including whole grain bread, whole grain breakfast cereals, and added bran, as well as total bread and total breakfast cereals were also associated with reduced risks of cardiovascular disease and/or all cause mortality, but there was little evidence of an association with refined grains, white rice, total rice, or total grains. Conclusions This meta-analysis provides further evidence that whole grain intake is associated with a reduced risk of coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease, and total cancer, and mortality from all causes, respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, diabetes, and all non-cardiovascular, non-cancer causes. These findings support dietary guidelines that recommend increased intake of whole grain to reduce the risk of chronic diseases and premature mortality

Dietary Patterns and Risk of Colorectal Cancer Subtypes Classified by Fusobacterium nucleatum in Tumor Tissue

Importance—Fusobacterium nucleatum appears to play a role in colorectal carcinogenesis through suppression of host immune response to tumor. Evidence also suggests that diet influences intestinal F. nucleatum. However, the role of F. nucleatum in mediating the relationship between diet and the risk of colorectal cancer is unknown. Objective—To test the hypothesis that the associations of prudent diets (rich in whole grains and dietary fiber) and Western diets (rich in red and processed meat, refined grains, and desserts) with colorectal cancer risk may differ according to the presence of F. nucleatum in tumor tissue. Design—Prospective cohort study. Setting—The Nurses’ Health Study (1980–2012) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986–2012). Participants—121,700 US female nurses and 51,529 US male health professionals aged 30 to 55 years and 40 to 75 years, respectively, at enrollment. Exposures—Prudent and Western dietary patterns. Main Outcomes and Measures—Incidence of colorectal carcinoma subclassified by F. nucleatum status in tumor tissue, determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Results—We documented 1,019 incident colon and rectal cancer cases with available F. nucleatum data among predominantly white 137,217 individuals over 26–32 years of follow-up encompassing 3,643,562 person-years. The association of prudent diet with colorectal cancer significantly differed by tissue F. nucleatum status (Pheterogeneity = .01). Prudent diet score was associated with a lower risk of F. nucleatum-positive cancers [Ptrend = .003; multivariable hazard ratio of 0.43 (95% confidence interval 0.25–0.72) for the highest vs. the lowest prudent score quartile], but not with F. nucleatum-negative cancers (Ptrend = .47). Dietary component analyses suggested possible differential associations for the cancer subgroups according to intakes of dietary fiber (Pheterogeneity = .02). There was no significant heterogeneity between the subgroups according to Western dietary pattern scores (Pheterogeneity = .23). Conclusions and Relevance—Prudent diets rich in whole grains and dietary fiber are associated with a lower risk for F. nucleatum-positive colorectal cancer but not F. nucleatum-negative cancer, supporting a potential role for intestinal microbiota in mediating the association between diet and colorectal neoplasms