In defence of story-telling

We argue that narratives are central to the success of historical reconstruction. Narrative explanation involves tracing causal trajectories across time. The construction of narrative, then, often involves postulating relatively speculative causal connections between comparatively well-established events. But speculation is not always idle or harmful: it also aids in overcoming local underdetermination by forming scaffolds from which new evidence becomes relevant. Moreover, as our understanding of the past’s causal milieus become richer, the constraints on narrative plausibility become increasingly strict: a narrative’s admissibility does not turn on mere logical consistency with background data. Finally, narrative explanation and explanation generated by simple, formal models complement one another. Where models often achieve isolation and precision at the cost of simplification and abstraction, narratives can track complex changes in a trajectory over time at the cost of simplicity and precision. In combination both allow us to understand and explain highly complex historical sequences

Vaporization of Prostatic Tissue to Treat Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

The prostate is a key component of the male reproductive system. Often, due to age, the prostate becomes enlarged resulting in a condition known as Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH). While pharmacological options are generally the first choice, surgery is sometimes necessary to treat this condition. Laser procedures are ideal because of the decreased risks to the patient, but complications arise when the layer of coagulated tissue created by the laser becomes too thick. An ideal laser wattage and application time must be determined in order to minimize the coagulation layer while achieving an effective level of vaporization. The goal of this simulation was to create a model from which an ideal set of laser parameters for the laser treatment of BPH can be determined. This was achieved using finite-element analysis of the laser heating of a 2-dimensional axisymmetric prostate model using COMSOL Multiphysics software. Using this simulation, the vaporization and coagulation thicknesses in prostatic tissue treated for 5 seconds with a 40W, 80W, or 120W laser, or treated for 1 second with a 60W, 80W or 120W laser were determined. The results indicated that increasing laser wattage and/or application time increases the thickness of vaporized tissue and decreases the thickness of coagulation. Furthermore, the results suggested that the thickness of the coagulation zone converges to a minimum value as wattage and/or application time is increased. This simulation was preliminary; however, this model can ideally be used to determine an ideal laser wattage-application time combination that produces the desired level of vaporization while minimizing tissue coagulation

The complexities of electronic services implementation and institutionalisation in the public sector

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Information & Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Electronic service implementation (ESI) in the public sector attempts to improve efficiency, effectiveness, and transparency of governmental departments. Despite having provided the necessary infrastructure and investment, many governments have struggled to realise such aims due to the various forces that challenge implementation and institutionalisation. Using institutional theory as a lens, we explored the forces influencing the implementation and institutionalisation of ESI in the public sector. While our results reinforced previous research in IT implementation and organisational transformation, they showed that the dynamic nature of technology poses unanticipated pressures, and that these can impede the implementation and institutionalisation process

Long-term tracing of whole catchment 15N additions in a mountain spruce forest: measurements and simulations with the TRACE model

Despite numerous studies on nitrogen (N) cycling in forest ecosystems, many uncertainties remain, particularly regarding long-term N accumulation in the soil. Models validated against tracer isotopic data from field labeling experiments provide a potential tool to better understand and simulate C and N interactions over multiple decades. In this study, we describe the adaptation of the dynamic process-based model TRACE to a new site, Alptal, where long-term N-addition and 15N-tracer experiments provide unique datasets for testing the model. We describe model parameterization for this spruce forest, and then test the model with 9- and 14-year time series of 15N-tracer recovery from control and N-amended catchments, respectively. Finally, we use the model to project the fate of ecosystem N accumulation over the next 70years. Field 15N recovery data show that the major sink for N deposition is the soil. On the control plot, tracer recovery in the soil increased from 32% in the second year to 60% in the ninth year following tracer addition, whereas on the N-saturated plot, soil recovery stayed almost constant from 63% in the third year to 61% in the twelfth year. Recovery in tree biomass increased over the decadal time scale in both treatments, to ca. 10% over 9years on the control plot and ca. 13% over 14years on the N-amended plot. We then used these time series to validate TRACE, showing that the adaptation and calibration procedure for the Alptal site was successful. Model-data comparison identified that the spreading method of 15N tracers needs to be considered when interpreting recovery results from labeling studies. Furthermore, the ground vegetation layer was recognized to play an important role in controlling the rate at which deposited N enters soil pools. Our 70-year model simulation into the future underpinned by a Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis, suggests that the soil is able to immobilize a constant fraction of 70 and 77% of deposited N for the treated and the control plot, respectively. Further, the model showed that the simulated increased N deposition resulted in a relatively small elevated C sequestration in aggrading wood with an N use efficiency of approximately 7kg C per kgN adde

In defence of story-telling

We argue that narratives are central to the success of historical reconstruction. Narrative explanation involves tracing causal trajectories across time. The construction of narrative, then, often involves postulating relatively speculative causal connections between comparatively well-established events. But speculation is not always idle or harmful: it also aids in overcoming local underdetermination by forming scaffolds from which new evidence becomes relevant. Moreover, as our understanding of the past's causal milieus become richer, the constraints on narrative plausibility become increasingly strict: a narrative's admissibility does not turn on mere logical consistency with background data. Finally, narrative explanation and explanation generated by simple, formal models complement one another. Where models often achieve isolation and precision at the cost of simplification and abstraction, narratives can track complex changes in a trajectory over time at the cost of simplicity and precision. In combination both allow us to understand and explain highly complex historical sequences.Part of the research was supported by the European Commission, and the Templeton World Charity Foundation (TWCF0128/AB82

Reduced-order modelling of vortex-induced vibration of catenary riser

A new reduced-order model capable of analyzing the vortex-induced vibration of catenary riser in the ocean current has been developed. This semi analytical-numerical approach is versatile and allows for a significant reduction in computational effort for the analysis of fluid-riser interactions. The incoming current flow is assumed to be steady, uniform, unidirectional and perpendicular to the riser plane of initial equilibrium curvatures. The equations of riser 3-D motion are based on a pinned-pinned, tensioned-beam or flexural cable, modelling which accounts for overall effects of riser bending, extensibility, sag, inclination and structural nonlinearities. The unsteady hydrodynamic forces associated with cross-flow and in-line vibrations are modelled as distributed van der Pol wake oscillators. This hydrodynamic model has been modified in order to capture the effect of varying initial curvatures of the inclined flexible cylinder and to describe the space-time fluctuation of lift and drag forces. Depending on the vortex-excited in-plane/out-of-plane modes and system fluid-structure parameters, the parametric studies are carried out to determine the maximum response amplitudes of catenary risers, along with the occurrence of uni-modal lock-in phenomenon. The obtained results highlight the effect of initial curvatures and geometric nonlinearities on the nonlinear dynamics of riser undergoing vortex-induced vibration

Two populations of transition discs?

We examine the distribution of transition discs as a function of mm flux. We confirm that as expected in any model in which most primordial discs turn into transition discs and in which mm flux declines with time, transition discs have lower mm fluxes on average than primordial discs. However, we find that the incidence of transition discs does not, as expected, fall monotonically towards large mm fluxes and we investigate the hypothesis that these mm bright transition discs may have a distinct physical origin. We find that mm bright transition discs occupy a separate region of parameter space. Transition discs in the bright mm sub-sample have systematically higher accretion rates and inner hole radii than those in the faint mm sub-sample, along with being systematically weighted to earlier spectral types.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, accepted version: mnras letter

Creation of dense polymer brush layers by the controlled deposition of an amphiphilic responsive comb polymer

We introduce a copolymer with a comb topology that has been engineered to assemble in a brush configuration at an air-water interface. The molecule comprises a 6.1 kDa poly(methyl methacrylate) backbone with a statistical amount of poly[2-(dimethyl amino)ethyl methacrylate] polybase side chains averaging 2.43 per backbone.. Brush layers deposited with the hydrophobic PMMA backbone adsorbed to hydrophobized silicon are stable in water even when stored at pH values less than 2.0 for over 24 h. The use of a Langmuir trough allows a simple controlled deposition of the layers at a variety of grafting densities. Depth profiling of brush layers was performed using neutron reflectometry and reveals a significant shifting of the responsiveness of the layer upon changing the grafting density. The degree of swelling of the layers at a pH value of 4 (below the pK(b)) decreases as grafting density increases. Lowering the pH of the subphase during deposition causes the side chains to become charged and more hydrophilic extending to a brush-like configuration while at neutral pH the side chains lie in a "pancake" conformation at the interface. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Formation and Evolution of Planetary Systems (FEPS): Properties of Debris Dust around Solar-type Stars

We present Spitzer photometric (IRAC and MIPS) and spectroscopic (IRS low resolution) observations for 314 stars in the Formation and Evolution of Planetary Systems (FEPS) Legacy program. These data are used to investigate the properties and evolution of circumstellar dust around solar-type stars spanning ages from approximately 3 Myr to 3 Gyr. We identify 46 sources that exhibit excess infrared emission above the stellar photosphere at 24um, and 21 sources with excesses at 70um. Five sources with an infrared excess have characteristics of optically thick primordial disks, while the remaining sources have properties akin to debris systems. The fraction of systems exhibiting a 24um excess greater than 10.2% above the photosphere is 15% for ages < 300 Myr and declines to 2.7% for older ages. The upper envelope to the 70um fractional luminosity appears to decline over a similar age range. The characteristic temperature of the debris inferred from the IRS spectra range between 60 and 180 K, with evidence for the presence of cooler dust to account for the strength of the 70um excess emission. No strong correlation is found between dust temperature and stellar age. Comparison of the observational data with disk models containing a power-law distribution of silicate grains suggest that the typical inner disk radius is > 10 AU. Although the interpretation is not unique, the lack of excess emission shortwards of 16um and the relatively flat distribution of the 24um excess for ages <300~Myr is consistent with steady-state collisional models.Comment: 85 pages, 18 figures, 4 tables; accepted for publication in ApJ