A Weighted Prognostic Covariate Adjustment Method for Efficient and Powerful Treatment Effect Inferences in Randomized Controlled Trials

A crucial task for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) is to specify a statistical method that can yield an efficient estimator and powerful test for the treatment effect. A novel and effective strategy to obtain efficient and powerful treatment effect inferences is to incorporate predictions from generative artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms into covariate adjustment for the regression analysis of a RCT. Training a generative AI algorithm on historical control data enables one to construct a digital twin generator (DTG) for RCT participants, which utilizes a participant's baseline covariates to generate a probability distribution for their potential control outcome. Summaries of the probability distribution from the DTG are highly predictive of the trial outcome, and adjusting for these features via regression can thus improve the quality of treatment effect inferences, while satisfying regulatory guidelines on statistical analyses, for a RCT. However, a critical assumption in this strategy is homoskedasticity, or constant variance of the outcome conditional on the covariates. In the case of heteroskedasticity, existing covariate adjustment methods yield inefficient estimators and underpowered tests. We propose to address heteroskedasticity via a weighted prognostic covariate adjustment methodology (Weighted PROCOVA) that adjusts for both the mean and variance of the regression model using information obtained from the DTG. We prove that our method yields unbiased treatment effect estimators, and demonstrate via comprehensive simulation studies and case studies from Alzheimer's disease that it can reduce the variance of the treatment effect estimator, maintain the Type I error rate, and increase the power of the test for the treatment effect from 80% to 85%~90% when the variances from the DTG can explain 5%~10% of the variation in the RCT participants' outcomes.Comment: 49 pages, 6 figures, 12 table

Biomarkers in asthma and allergic rhinitis

International audienceA biological marker (biomarker) is a physical sign or laboratory measurement that can serve as an indicator of biological or pathophysiological processes or as a response to a therapeutic intervention. An applicable biomarker possesses the characteristics of clinical relevance (sensitivity and specificity for the disease) and is responsive to treatment effects, in combination with simplicity, reliability and repeatability of the sampling technique. Presently, there are several biomarkers for asthma and allergic rhinitis that can be obtained by non-invasive or semi-invasive airway sampling methods meeting at least some of these criteria

Molecular Neuroimaging of the Dopamine Transporter as a Patient Enrichment Biomarker for Clinical Trials for Early Parkinson's Disease

The Critical Path for Parkinson's (CPP) Imaging Biomarker and Modeling and Simulation working groups aimed to achieve qualification opinion by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Committee for Medical Products for Human Use (CHMP) for the use of baseline dopamine transporter neuroimaging for patient selection in early Parkinson's disease clinical trials. This paper describes the regulatory science strategy to achieve this goal. CPP is an international consortium of three Parkinson's charities and nine pharmaceutical partners, coordinated by the Critical Path Institute

Molecular Neuroimaging of the Dopamine Transporter as a Patient Enrichment Biomarker for Clinical Trials for Early Parkinson's Disease

The Critical Path for Parkinson's (CPP) Imaging Biomarker and Modeling and Simulation working groups aimed to achieve qualification opinion by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Committee for Medical Products for Human Use (CHMP) for the use of baseline dopamine transporter neuroimaging for patient selection in early Parkinson's disease clinical trials. This paper describes the regulatory science strategy to achieve this goal. CPP is an international consortium of three Parkinson's charities and nine pharmaceutical partners, coordinated by the Critical Path Institute