Genetic distance predicts trait differentiation at the subpopulation but not the individual level in eelgrass, Zostera marina.

Ecological studies often assume that genetically similar individuals will be more similar in phenotypic traits, such that genetic diversity can serve as a proxy for trait diversity. Here, we explicitly test the relationship between genetic relatedness and trait distance using 40 eelgrass (Zostera marina) genotypes from five sites within Bodega Harbor, CA. We measured traits related to nutrient uptake, morphology, biomass and growth, photosynthesis, and chemical deterrents for all genotypes. We used these trait measurements to calculate a multivariate pairwise trait distance for all possible genotype combinations. We then estimated pairwise relatedness from 11 microsatellite markers. We found significant trait variation among genotypes for nearly every measured trait; however, there was no evidence of a significant correlation between pairwise genetic relatedness and multivariate trait distance among individuals. However, at the subpopulation level (sites within a harbor), genetic (FST) and trait differentiation were positively correlated. Our work suggests that pairwise relatedness estimated from neutral marker loci is a poor proxy for trait differentiation between individual genotypes. It remains to be seen whether genomewide measures of genetic differentiation or easily measured "master" traits (like body size) might provide good predictions of overall trait differentiation

A Note on Prediction of Wood Properties in Yellow-Poplar

Increment core samples were taken from fifteen yellow-poplar trees at breast height and determinations of specific gravity and fiber length were made on selected individual growth rings. Juvenile wood and mature wood of different growth rates were compared. The results show mature wood specific gravity uncorrelated with growth rate and mature wood fiber length increasing with increasing growth rate. The extremely low correlation obtained between juvenile wood and mature wood properties within the same tree indicates that no predictive relationship exists for use in selection at a very early age

Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US Presidential elections, 2004 - 2016

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of undecided voters, these static rules may in fact bias election predictions from election poll authors and meta-poll analysts. In this paper, we examine the effect of undecided voters in the 2016 US presidential election to the previous three presidential elections. We show there were a relatively high number of undecided voters over the campaign and on election day, and that the allocation of undecided voters in this election was not consistent with two-party proportional (or even) allocations. We find evidence that static allocation regimes are inadequate for election prediction models and that probabilistic allocations may be superior. We also estimate the bias attributable to polling agencies, often referred to as "house effects".Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 table

Parasite infections in a social carnivore: Evidence of their fitness consequences and factors modulating infection load

There are substantial individual differences in parasite composition and infection load in wildlife populations. Few studies have investigated the factors shaping this heterogeneity in large wild mammals or the impact of parasite infections on Darwinian fitness, particularly in juveniles. A host's parasite composition and infection load can be shaped by factors that determine contact with infective parasite stages and those that determine the host's resistance to infection, such as abiotic and social environmental factors, and age. Host–parasite interactions and synergies between coinfecting parasites may also be important. We test predictions derived from these different processes to investigate factors shaping infection loads (fecal egg/oocyte load) of two energetically costly gastrointestinal parasites: the hookworm Ancylostoma and the intracellular Cystoisospora, in juvenile spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) in the Serengeti National Park, in Tanzania. We also assess whether parasite infections curtail survival to adulthood and longevity. Ancylostoma and Cystoisospora infection loads declined as the number of adult clan members increased, a result consistent with an encounter‐reduction effect whereby adults reduced encounters between juveniles and infective larvae, but were not affected by the number of juveniles in a clan. Infection loads decreased with age, possibly because active immune responses to infection improved with age. Differences in parasite load between clans possibly indicate variation in abiotic environmental factors between clan den sites. The survival of juveniles (<365 days old) to adulthood decreased with Ancylostoma load, increased with age, and was modulated by maternal social status. High‐ranking individuals with low Ancylostoma loads had a higher survivorship during the first 4 years of life than high‐ranking individuals with high Ancylostoma loads. These findings suggest that high infection loads with energetically costly parasites such as hookworms during early life can have negative fitness consequences

Foliar damage beyond species distributions is partly explained by distance dependent interactions with natural enemies

Plant distributions are expected to shift in response to climate change, and range expansion dynamics will be shaped by the performance of individuals at the colonizing front. These plants will encounter new biotic communities beyond their range edges, and the net outcome of these encounters could profoundly affect colonization success. However, little is known about how biotic interactions vary across range edges and this has hindered efforts to predict changes in species distributions in response to climate change. In contrast, a rich literature documents how biotic interactions within species ranges vary according to distance to and density of conspecific individuals. Here, we test whether this framework can be extended to explain how biotic interactions differ beyond range edges, where conspecific adults are basically absent. To do so, we planted seven species of trees along a 450‐km latitudinal gradient that crossed the current distributional range of five of these species and monitored foliar disease and invertebrate herbivory over 5 yr. Foliar disease and herbivory were analyzed as a function of distance to and density of conspecific and congeneric trees at several spatial scales. We found that within species ranges foliar disease was lower for seedlings that were farther from conspecific adults for Acer rubrum, Carya glabra, Quercus alba, and Robinia pseudoacacia. Beyond range edges, there was even less foliar disease for C. glabra, Q. alba, and R. pseudoacacia (A. rubrum was not planted outside its range). Liriodendron tulipifera did not experience reduced disease within or beyond its range. In contrast, Quercus velutina displayed significant but idiosyncratic patterns in disease at varying distances from conspecifics. Patterns of distance dependent herbivory across spatial scales was generally weak and in some cases negative (i.e., seedlings farther from conspecific adults had more herbivory). Overall, we conclude that differences in biotic interactions across range edges can be thought of as a spatial extension to the concept of distance dependent biotic interactions. This framework also provides the basis for general predictions of how distance dependent biotic interactions will change across range edges in other systems.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134258/1/ecy1468.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134258/2/ecy1468_am.pd

Breeding latitude predicts timing but not rate of spring migration in a widespread migratory bird in South America

Identifying the processes that determine avian migratory strategies in different environmental contexts is imperative to understanding the constraints to survival and reproduction faced by migratory birds across the planet. We compared the spring migration strategies of Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana) that breed at south‐temperate latitudes (i.e., austral migrants) vs. tropical latitudes (i.e., intratropical migrants) in South America. We hypothesized that austral migrant flycatchers are more time‐selected than intratropical migrants during spring migration. As such, we predicted that austral migrants, which migrate further than intratropical migrants, will migrate at a faster rate and that the rate of migration for austral migrants will be positively correlated with the onset of spring migration. We attached light‐level geolocators to Fork‐tailed Flycatchers at two tropical breeding sites in Brazil and at two south‐temperate breeding sites in Argentina and tracked their movements until the following breeding season. Of 286 geolocators that were deployed, 37 were recovered ~1 year later, of which 28 provided useable data. Rate of spring migration did not differ significantly between the two groups, and only at one site was there a significantly positive relationship between date of initiation of spring migration and arrival date. This represents the first comparison of individual migratory strategies among conspecific passerines breeding at tropical vs. temperate latitudes and suggests that austral migrant Fork‐tailed Flycatchers in South America are not more time‐selected on spring migration than intratropical migrant conspecifics. Low sample sizes could have diminished our power to detect differences (e.g., between sexes), such that further research into the mechanisms underpinning migratory strategies in this poorly understood system is necessary.Fil: Jahn, Alex. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Cereghetti, Joaquín. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa; ArgentinaFil: Cueto, Víctor. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Centro de Investigación Esquel de Montaña y Estepa Patagóica. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Facultad de Ciencias Naturales - Sede Esquel. Centro de Investigación Esquel de Montaña y Estepa Patagónica; ArgentinaFil: Hallworth, Michael T.. Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; Estados UnidosFil: Levey, Douglas J.. National Science Foundation; Estados UnidosFil: Marini, Miguel Â.. Universidade do Brasília; BrasilFil: Masson, Diego. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; ArgentinaFil: Pizo, Marco A.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Sarasola, José Hernán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa; ArgentinaFil: Tuero, Diego Tomas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentin

Ceased grazing management changes the ecosystem services of semi-natural grasslands

Understanding how drivers of change affect ecosystem services (ES) is of great importance. Indicators of ES can be developed based on biophysical measures and be used to investigate the service flow from ecosystems to socio-ecological systems. However, the ES concept is multivariate and the use of normalized composite indicators reduces complexity and facilitates communication between science and policy. The aim of this study is to analyze how land use change affects ES and species richness and how the effects are modified by environmental factors by using composite indicators based on biophysical indicators. Using multivariate and regression analyses, we analyze the effect of grazing management abandonment in semi-natural grasslands in Norway on six ES: nutrient cycling, pollination, forage quality, aesthetics and global and regional climate regulation in addition to species richness along soil and climate gradients. Nutrient cycling, forage quality, regional climate regulation, aesthetics and species richness are larger in managed compared to abandoned grasslands. There are trade-offs among ES as different management strategies provide various ES and these trade-offs vary along environmental gradients. Management policies that aim to conserve ES need to have conservation goals that are context dependent, should recognize ES trade-offs and be adapted to local conditions

Charting self-esteem during marital dissolution.

ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to chart changes in self-esteem before and after marital dissolution to identify the factors that shape individuals' self-esteem during this life transition.MethodWe analyzed 10 annual waves of self-esteem data from 291 divorcees from a nationally representative panel study of the Netherlands (N&nbsp;~&nbsp;13,000). We charted the course of self-esteem before and after marital dissolution and tested a broad set of moderator variables that may shape individuals' self-esteem trajectories.ResultsThe average divorcee experienced significant decrease in self-esteem preceding marital dissolution and remained stable afterward. There were substantial individual differences in self-esteem trajectories, both before and after marital separation. Divorcees who experienced financial hardship, were affiliated with a church or religion, or scored low in Conscientiousness showed the most pronounced decrease in self-esteem during the years approaching marital dissolution.ConclusionThis study highlights the importance of assessing people multiple times before and after marital dissolution to dissect how people approach and respond to this life event. Results are consistent with perspectives that view divorce as an opportunity to abate the strains of an unhappy marriage

Characterizing the role of the pre‐SMA in the control of speed/accuracy trade‐off with directed functional connectivity mapping and multiple solution reduction

Several plausible theories of the neural implementation of speed/accuracy trade‐off (SAT), the phenomenon in which individuals may alternately emphasize speed or accuracy during the performance of cognitive tasks, have been proposed, and multiple lines of evidence point to the involvement of the pre‐supplemental motor area (pre‐SMA). However, as the nature and directionality of the pre‐SMA’s functional connections to other regions involved in cognitive control and task processing are not known, its precise role in the top‐down control of SAT remains unclear. Although recent advances in cross‐sectional path modeling provide a promising way of characterizing these connections, such models are limited by their tendency to produce multiple equivalent solutions. In a sample of healthy adults (N = 18), the current study uses the novel approach of Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation for Multiple Solutions (GIMME‐MS) to assess directed functional connections between the pre‐SMA, other regions previously linked to control of SAT, and regions putatively involved in evidence accumulation for the decision task. Results reveal a primary role of the pre‐SMA for modulating activity in regions involved in the decision process but suggest that this region receives top‐down input from the DLPFC. Findings also demonstrate the utility of GIMME‐MS and solution‐reduction methods for obtaining valid directional inferences from connectivity path models.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149347/1/hbm24493.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149347/2/hbm24493_am.pd