Downscaling extremes: A comparison of extreme value distributions in point-source and gridded precipitation data

There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However, understanding these issues is limited by a fundamental issue of spatial scaling: most evidence of past trends comes from rain gauge data, whereas trends into the future are produced by climate models, which rely on gridded aggregates. To study this further, we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the right tail of the distribution of both rain gauge and gridded events. The results of this modeling exercise confirm that return values computed from rain gauge data are typically higher than those computed from gridded data; however, the size of the difference is somewhat surprising, with the rain gauge data exhibiting return values sometimes two or three times that of the gridded data. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a family of regression relationships between the two sets of return values that also take spatial variations into account. Based on these results, we now believe it is possible to project future changes in precipitation extremes at the point-location level based on results from climate models.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS287 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Whole-Transcriptome Approach to Evaluating Reference Genes for Quantitative Gene Expression Studies: A Case Study in Mimulus

While quantitative PCR (qPCR) is widely recognized as being among the most accurate methods for quantifying gene expression, it is highly dependent on the use of reliable, stably expressed reference genes. With the increased availability of high-throughput methods for measuring gene expression, whole-transcriptome approaches may be increasingly utilized for reference gene selection and validation. In this study, RNA-seq was used to identify a set of novel qPCR reference genes and evaluate a panel of traditional housekeeping reference genes in two species of the evolutionary model plant genus Mimulus. More broadly, the methods proposed in this study can be used to harness the power of transcriptomes to identify appropriate reference genes for qPCR in any study organism, including emerging and nonmodel systems. We find that RNA-seq accurately estimates gene expression means in comparison to qPCR, and that expression means are robust to moderate environmental and genetic variation. However, measures of expression variability were only in agreement with qPCR for samples obtained from a shared environment. This result, along with transcriptome-wide comparisons, suggests that environmental changes have greater impacts on expression variability than on expression means. We discuss how this issue can be addressed through experimental design, and suggest that the ever-expanding pool of published transcriptomes represents a rich and low-cost resource for developing better reference genes for qPCR

Donor KIR B Genotype Improves Progression-Free Survival of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma Patients Receiving Unrelated Donor Transplantation

Donor killer immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) genotypes are associated with relapse protection and survival after allotransplantation for acute myelogenous leukemia. We examined the possibility of a similar effect in a cohort of 614 non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients receiving unrelated donor (URD) T cell-replete marrow or peripheral blood grafts. Sixty-four percent (n = 396) of donor-recipient pairs were 10/10 allele HLA matched and 26% were 9/10 allele matched. Seventy percent of donors had KIR B/x genotype; the others had KIR A/A genotype. NHL patients receiving 10/10 HLA-matched URD grafts with KIR B/x donors experienced significantly lower relapse at 5 years (26%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 21% to 32% versus 37%; 95% CI, 27% to 46%; P = .05) compared with KIR A/A donors, resulting in improved 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) (35%; 95% CI, 26% to 44% versus 22%; 95% CI, 11% to 35%; P = .007). In multivariate analysis, use of KIR B/x donors was associated with significantly reduced relapse risk (relative risk [RR], .63, P = .02) and improved PFS (RR, .71, P = .008). The relapse protection afforded by KIR B/x donors was not observed in HLA-mismatched transplantations and was not specific to any particular KIR-B gene. Selecting 10/10 HLA-matched and KIR B/x donors should benefit patients with NHL receiving URD allogeneic transplantation

Toward the Integration of an Attract-and-Kill Approach with Entomopathogenic Nematodes to Control Multiple Life Stages of Plum Curculio (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

Efforts to reduce insecticide inputs against plum curculio, Conotrachelus nenuphar, a key pest of apples in eastern North America, include perimeter-row insecticide sprays applied after the whole-orchard petal fall spray to manage dispersing adults and, more recently, insecticide sprays confined to odor-baited trap trees. Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) are virulent to ground-dwelling stages of C. nenuphar, and may be applied to the ground underneath trap-tree canopies. Here, we (1) compared the efficacy of the odor-baited trap tree approach with grower-prescribed (=grower standard) sprays to manage C. nenuphar populations over a six-year period in seven commercial apple orchards in New England; and (2) assessed the performance of the EPN Steinernema riobrave at suppressing ground-dwelling stages of C. nenuphar. In addition, the performance of S. riobrave was compared against that of S. carpocapsae and S. feltiae in one year. Across the six years, percent fruit injury on trap tree plots averaged 11.3% on odor-baited trap trees and 1.4% on unbaited trees in grower standard plots, highlighting the ability of trap trees to aggregate C. nenuphar activity and subsequent injury. Mean percentage injury on fruit sampled from interior trees, the strongest measure of treatment performance, in trap tree plots did not differ significantly from that recorded on interior trees in grower standard spray plots (0.95 vs. 0.68%, respectively). Steinernema riobrave consistently reduced C. nenuphar populations as indicated by the significantly lower number of adult C. nenuphar that emerged from the soil, when compared to water control. Steinernema carpocapsae and S. riobrave performed similarly well, and both EPN species outperformed S. feltiae. Our combined findings indicate that an IPM approach that targets multiple life stages of C. nenuphar has the potential to manage this pest more sustainably in a reduced-spray environment

Foot Injuries in Michigan, USA, Gray Wolves (\u3ci\u3eCanis lupus\u3c/i\u3e), 1992–2014

The range of gray wolves (Canis lupus) in the contiguous US is expanding. Research and monitoring to support population recovery and management often involves capture via foothold traps. A population-level epidemiologic assessment of the effect of trap injuries on wolf survival remains needed to inform management. We describe the baseline rate, type, and severity of foot injuries of wolves born 1992–2013 in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, evaluate the reliability of field-scoring trap-related injuries, and the effect of injuries on wolf survival. We assessed foot injuries by physical and radiographic exam at postmortem and/or time of capture for 351 wolves using the International Organization for Standardization 10990-5 standard and the effects of injuries, sex, age, previous capture and body condition on survival using proportional hazards regression. We used ordinal regression to evaluate epidemiologic associations between sex, age, previous capture, body condition, cause of death and injury severity. Most wolves (53%) experienced no physically or radiographically discernable foot injuries over their lifetimes. Among those wolves that did experience injuries, 33% scored as mild. Foot injuries had little epidemiologically discernable effect on survival rates. Wolves with higher foot trauma scores did experience an increased risk of dying, but the magnitude of the increase was modest. Most limb injuries occurred below the carpus or tarsus, and scoring upper-limb injuries added little predictive information to population-level epidemiologic measures of survival and injury severity. There was little association between injury severity and cause of death. Based on necropsy exams, previous trap injuries likely contributed to death in only four wolves (1.1%). Our results suggest that injuries resulting from foothold traps are unlikely to be a limiting factor in recovery and ongoing survival of the Michigan gray wolf population

Circulating Angiogenic Factors Associated with Response and Survival in Patients with Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease: Results from Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network 0302 and 0802

AbstractCirculating angiogenic factors (AF) reflect tissue healing capacity, although some AF can also contribute to inflammation and are indicative of endothelial dysfunction. The AF milieu in acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) has not been broadly characterized. We hypothesized that patients with abundant AF involved in repair/regeneration versus those mediating damage/inflammation would have improved outcomes. Circulating AF known predominantly for repair/regeneration (epidermal growth factor [EGF], fibroblast growth factor-1 and -2, heparin binding–EGF–like growth factor, and vascular endothelial growth factor-A [VEGF-A], -C, and -D) and for damage/inflammation (angiopoietin-2, endothelin-1, soluble endoglin [sEng], follistatin [FS], leptin, and placental growth factor [PlGF]) were measured in a discovery set of hematopoietic cell recipients with grade III and IV aGVHD and compared with controls, then validated in 2 aGVHD cohorts enrolled in Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network (BMT CTN) trials 0302 (n = 105, serum) and 0802 (n = 158, plasma) versus controls without aGVHD (n = 53, serum). Levels of EGF and VEGF-A were lower than in controls at the onset of aGVHD in both trials and higher with complete response to first-line aGVHD therapy in CTN 0802. FS and PlGF were elevated in aGVHD measured in either serum or plasma. At day 28 after initial aGVHD therapy, elevated FS was an independent negative prognostic factor for survival in both cohorts (hazard ratio, 9.3 in CTN 0302; 2.8 in CTN 0802). These data suggest that circulating AF are associated with clinical outcomes after aGVHD and, thus, may contribute to both pathogenesis and recovery

Recommended Priorities for Research on Ecological Impacts of Ocean and Coastal Acidification in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic

The estuaries and continental shelf system of the United States Mid-Atlantic are subject to ocean acidification driven by atmospheric CO2, and coastal acidification caused by nearshore and land-sea interactions that include biological, chemical, and physical processes. These processes include freshwater and nutrient input from rivers and groundwater; tidally-driven outwelling of nutrients, inorganic carbon, alkalinity; high productivity and respiration; and hypoxia. Hence, these complex dynamic systems exhibit substantial daily, seasonal, and interannual variability that is not well captured by current acidification research on Mid-Atlantic organisms and ecosystems. We present recommendations for research priorities that target better understanding of the ecological impacts of acidification in the U. S. Mid-Atlantic region. Suggested priorities are: 1) Determining the impact of multiple stressors on our resource species as well as the magnitude of acidification; 2) Filling information gaps on major taxa and regionally important species in different life stages to improve understanding of their response to variable temporal scales and sources of acidification; 3) Improving experimental approaches to incorporate realistic environmental variability and gradients, include interactions with other environmental stressors, increase transferability to other systems or organisms, and evaluate community and ecosystem response; 4) Determining the capacity of important species to acclimate or adapt to changing ocean conditions; 5) Considering multi-disciplinary, ecosystem-level research that examines acidification impacts on biodiversity and biotic interactions; and 6) Connecting potential acidification-induced ecological impacts to ecosystem services and the economy. These recommendations, while developed for the Mid-Atlantic, can be applicable to other regions will help align research towards knowledge of potential larger-scale ecological and economic impacts

Information Display System for Atypical Flight Phase

Method and system for displaying information on one or more aircraft flights, where at least one flight is determined to have at least one atypical flight phase according to specified criteria. A flight parameter trace for an atypical phase is displayed and compared graphically with a group of traces, for the corresponding flight phase and corresponding flight parameter, for flights that do not manifest atypicality in that phase

Design and Implementation of an Underwater Sound Recording Device

To monitor the underwater sound and pressure waves generated by anthropogenic activities such as underwater blasting and pile driving, an autonomous system was designed to record underwater acoustic signals. The underwater sound recording device (USR) allows for connections of two hydrophones or other dynamic pressure sensors, filters high frequency noise out of the collected signals, has a gain that can be independently set for each sensor, and allows for 2 h of data collection. Two versions of the USR were created: a submersible model deployable to a maximum depth of 300 m, and a watertight but not fully submersible model. Tests were performed on the USR in the laboratory using a data acquisition system to send single-frequency sinusoidal voltages directly to each component. These tests verified that the device operates as designed and performs as well as larger commercially available data acquisition systems, which are not suited for field use. On average, the designed gain values differed from the actual measured gain values by about 0.35 dB. A prototype of the device was used in a case study to measure blast pressures while investigating the effect of underwater rock blasting on juvenile Chinook salmon and rainbow trout. In the case study, maximum positive pressure from the blast was found to be significantly correlated with frequency of injury for individual fish. The case study also demonstrated that the device withstood operation in harsh environments, making it a valuable tool for collecting field measurements