Malaria ecology, child mortality & fertility.

The broad determinants of fertility are thought to be reasonably well identified by demographers, though the detailed quantitative drivers of fertility levels and changes are less well understood. This paper uses a novel ecological index of malaria transmission to study the effect of child mortality on fertility. We find that temporal variation in the ecology of the disease is well-correlated to mortality, and pernicious malaria conditions lead to higher fertility rates. We then argue that most of this effect occurs through child mortality, and estimate the effect of child mortality changes on fertility. Our findings add to the literature on disease and fertility, and contribute to the suggestive evidence that child mortality reductions have a causal effect on fertility changes

Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology

Much of Africa has not yet gone through a "demographic transition" to reduced mortality and fertility rates. The fact that the continent's countries remain mired in a Malthusian crisis of high mortality, high fertility, and rapid population growth (with an accompanying state of chronic extreme poverty) has been attributed to many factors ranging from the status of women, pro-natalist policies, poverty itself, and social institutions. There remains, however, a large degree of uncertainty among demographers as to the relative importance of these factors on a comparative or historical basis. Moreover, econometric estimation is complicated by endogeneity among fertility and other variables of interest. We attempt to improve estimation (particularly of the effect of the child mortality variable) by deploying exogenous variation in the ecology of malaria transmission and in agricultural productivity through the staggered introduction of Green Revolution, high-yield seed varieties. Results show that child mortality (proxied by infant mortality) is by far the most important factor among those explaining aggregate total fertility rates, followed by farm productivity. Female literacy (or schooling) and aggregate income do not seem to matter as much, comparatively.

Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology

Much of Africa has not yet gone through a "demographic transition" to reduced mortality and fertility rates. The fact that the continent's countries remain mired in a Malthusian crisis of high mortality, high fertility, and rapid population growth (with an accompanying state of chronic extreme poverty) has been attributed to many factors ranging from the status of women, pro-natalist policies, poverty itself, and social institutions. There remains, however, a large degree of uncertainty among demographers as to the relative importance of these factors on a comparative or historical basis. Moreover, econometric estimation is complicated by endogeneity among fertility and other variables of interest. We attempt to improve estimation (particularly of the effect of the child mortality variable) by deploying exogenous variation in the ecology of malaria transmission and in agricultural productivity through the staggered introduction of Green Revolution, high-yield seed varieties. Results show that child mortality (proxied by infant mortality) is by far the most important factor among those explaining aggregate total fertility rates, followed by farm productivity. Female literacy (or schooling) and aggregate income do not seem to matter as much, comparatively

Crowd wisdom enhanced by costly signaling in a virtual rating system

Costly signaling theory was developed in both economics and biology and has been used to explain a wide range of phenomena. However, the theory’s prediction that signal cost can enforce information quality in the design of new communication systems has never been put to an empirical test. Here we show that imposing time costs on reporting extreme scores can improve crowd wisdom in a previously cost-free rating system. We developed an online game where individuals interacted repeatedly with simulated services and rated them for satisfaction. We associated ratings with differential time costs by endowing the graphical user interface that solicited ratings from the users with “physics,” including an initial (default) slider position and friction. When ratings were not associated with differential cost (all scores from 0 to 100 could be given by an equally low-cost click on the screen), scores correlated only weakly with objective service quality. However, introducing differential time costs, proportional to the deviation from the mean score, improved correlations between subjective rating scores and objective service performance and lowered the sample size required for obtain ingreliable, averaged crowd estimates. Boosting time costs for reporting extreme scores further facilitated the detection of top performances. Thus, human collective online behavior, which is typically cost-free, can be made more informative by applying costly signaling via the virtual physics of rating devices

Social and genetic associations with educational performance in a Scandinavian welfare state

Recent research has suggested that across Western developed societies, the influence of genetics on educational outcomes is relatively constant. However, the degree to which family environment matters varies, such that countries with high levels of intergenerational mobility have weaker associations of family background. Research in this vein has relied on twin-based estimates, which involve variance decomposition, so direct assessment of the association of genes and environments is not possible. In the present study, we approach the question by directly measuring the impact of child genotype, parental genetic nurture, and parental realized education on educational achievement in primary and secondary school. We deploy data from a social democratic context (Norway) and contrast our findings with those derived from more liberal welfare state contexts. Results point to genetics only confounding the relationship between parent status and offspring achievement to a small degree. Genetic nurture associations are similar to those in other societies. We find no, or very small, gene–environment interactions and parent–child genotype interactions with respect to test scores. In sum, in a Scandinavian welfare state context, both genetic and environmental associations are of similar magnitude as in societies with less-robust efforts to mitigate the influence of family background.publishedVersio

Genetic Influences on Educational Achievement in Cross-National Perspective

There is a growing interest in how social conditions moderate genetic influences on education [gene–environment interactions (GxE)]. Previous research has focused on the family, specifically parents’ social background, and has neglected the institutional environment. To assess the impact of macro-level influences, we compare genetic influences on educational achievement and their social stratification across Germany, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. We combine well-established GxE-conceptualizations with the comparative stratification literature and propose that educational systems and welfare-state regimes affect the realization of genetic potential. We analyse population-representative survey data on twins (Germany and the United States) and twin registers (Norway and Sweden), and estimate genetically sensitive variance decomposition models. Our comparative design yields three main findings. First, Germany stands out with comparatively weak genetic influences on educational achievement suggesting that early tracking limits the realization thereof. Second, in the United States genetic influences are comparatively strong and similar in size compared to the Nordic countries. Third, in Sweden genetic influences are stronger among disadvantaged families supporting the expectation that challenging and uncertain circumstances promote genetic expression. This ideosyncratic finding must be related to features of Swedish social institutions or welfare-state arrangements that are not found in otherwise similar countries

Evaluation Research and Institutional Pressures: Challenges in Public-Nonprofit Contracting

This article examines the connection between program evaluation research and decision-making by public managers. Drawing on neo-institutional theory, a framework is presented for diagnosing the pressures and conditions that lead alternatively toward or away the rational use of evaluation research. Three cases of public-nonprofit contracting for the delivery of major programs are presented to clarify the way coercive, mimetic, and normative pressures interfere with a sound connection being made between research and implementation. The article concludes by considering how public managers can respond to the isomorphic pressures in their environment that make it hard to act on data relating to program performance.This publication is Hauser Center Working Paper No. 23. The Hauser Center Working Paper Series was launched during the summer of 2000. The Series enables the Hauser Center to share with a broad audience important works-in-progress written by Hauser Center scholars and researchers

FMOS near-IR spectroscopy of Herschel selected galaxies: star formation rates, metallicity and dust attenuation at z~1

We investigate the properties (e.g. star formation rate, dust attentuation, stellar mass and metallicity) of a sample of infrared luminous galaxies at z \sim 1 via near-IR spectroscopy with Subaru-FMOS. Our sample consists of Herschel SPIRE and Spitzer MIPS selected sources in the COSMOS field with photometric redshifts in the range 0.7 < z-phot < 1.8, which have been targeted in 2 pointings (0.5 sq. deg.) with FMOS. We find a modest success rate for emission line detections, with candidate H{\alpha} emission lines detected for 57 of 168 SPIRE sources (34 per cent). By stacking the near-IR spectra we directly measure the mean Balmer decrement for the H{\alpha} and H{\beta} lines, finding a value of = 0.51\pm0.27 for = 10^12 Lsol sources at = 1.36. By comparing star formation rates estimated from the IR and from the dust uncorrected H{\alpha} line we find a strong relationship between dust attenuation and star formation rate. This relation is broadly consistent with that previously seen in star-forming galaxies at z ~ 0.1. Finally, we investigate the metallicity via the N2 ratio, finding that z ~ 1 IR-selected sources are indistinguishable from the local mass-metallicity relation. We also find a strong correlation between dust attentuation and metallicity, with the most metal-rich IR-sources experiencing the largest levels of dust attenuation.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, MNRAS accepte

Dispersal of Group A Streptococcal Biofilms by the Cysteine Protease SpeB Leads to Increased Disease Severity in a Murine Model

Group A Streptococcus (GAS) is a Gram-positive human pathogen best known for causing pharyngeal and mild skin infections. However, in the 1980's there was an increase in severe GAS infections including cellulitis and deeper tissue infections like necrotizing fasciitis. Particularly striking about this elevation in the incidence of severe disease was that those most often affected were previously healthy individuals. Several groups have shown that changes in gene content or regulation, as with proteases, may contribute to severe disease; yet strains harboring these proteases continue to cause mild disease as well. We and others have shown that group A streptococci (MGAS5005) reside within biofilms both in vitro and in vivo. That is to say that the organism colonizes a host surface and forms a 3-dimensional community encased in a protective matrix of extracellular protein, DNA and polysaccharide(s). However, the mechanism of assembly or dispersal of these structures is unclear, as is the relationship of these structures to disease outcome. Recently we reported that allelic replacement of the streptococcal regulator srv resulted in constitutive production of the streptococcal cysteine protease SpeB. We further showed that the constitutive production of SpeB significantly decreased MGAS5005Δsrv biofilm formation in vitro. Here we show that mice infected with MGAS5005Δsrv had significantly larger lesion development than wild-type infected animals. Histopathology, Gram-staining and immunofluorescence link the increased lesion development with lack of disease containment, lack of biofilm formation, and readily detectable levels of SpeB in the tissue. Treatment of MGAS5005Δsrv infected lesions with a chemical inhibitor of SpeB significantly reduced lesion formation and disease spread to wild-type levels. Furthermore, inactivation of speB in the MGAS5005Δsrv background reduced lesion formation to wild-type levels. Taken together, these data suggest a mechanism by which GAS disease may transition from mild to severe through the Srv mediated dispersal of GAS biofilms