Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior

Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents' to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus 'keep their options open'. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations

Comprehensive Analysis of Market Conditions in the Foreign Exchange Market: Fluctuation Scaling and Variance-Covariance Matrix

We investigate quotation and transaction activities in the foreign exchange market for every week during the period of June 2007 to December 2010. A scaling relationship between the mean values of number of quotations (or number of transactions) for various currency pairs and the corresponding standard deviations holds for a majority of the weeks. However, the scaling breaks in some time intervals, which is related to the emergence of market shocks. There is a monotonous relationship between values of scaling indices and global averages of currency pair cross-correlations when both quantities are observed for various window lengths $\Delta t$.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figure

Impact Evaluation of Wet-Weather Events on Influent Flow and Loadings of a Water Resource Recovery Facility

Since the introduction of environmental legislation anddirectives in Europe, the impact of combined sewer overflows (CSO) on receiving waterbodies has become a priority concern in water and wastewater treatment industry. Timeconsumingand expensive local sampling and monitoring campaigns have been carried outto estimate the characteristic flow and pollutant concentrations of CSO water. This studyfocused on estimating the frequency and duration of wet-weather events and their impactson influent flow and wastewater characteristics of the largest Italian water resource recoveryfacility (WRRF) in Castiglione Torinese. Eight years (viz. 2009-2016) of routinely collectedinfluent data in addition to the arithmetic mean daily precipitation rates (PI) of the plantcatchment area, were elaborated. Relationships between PI and volumetric influent flow rate(Qin), chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonium concentration (N-NH4) and totalsuspended solids (TSS) are investigated. Time series data mining (TSDM) method isimplemented for segmentation of time series by use of sliding window algorithm to partitionthe available records associated with wet and dry weather events based on the dailyvariation of PI time series. Appling the methodology in conjunction with results obtained fromdata reduction techniques, a wet-weather definition is proposed for the plant. The resultsconfirm that applied methodology on routinely collected plant data can be considered as agood substitute for time-consuming and expensive sampling campaigns and plantmonitoring programs usually conducted for accurate emergency response and long-termpreparedness for extreme climate conditions

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Genome-wide signatures of convergent evolution in echolocating mammals

Evolution is typically thought to proceed through divergence of genes, proteins, and ultimately phenotypes(1-3). However, similar traits might also evolve convergently in unrelated taxa due to similar selection pressures(4,5). Adaptive phenotypic convergence is widespread in nature, and recent results from a handful of genes have suggested that this phenomenon is powerful enough to also drive recurrent evolution at the sequence level(6-9). Where homoplasious substitutions do occur these have long been considered the result of neutral processes. However, recent studies have demonstrated that adaptive convergent sequence evolution can be detected in vertebrates using statistical methods that model parallel evolution(9,10) although the extent to which sequence convergence between genera occurs across genomes is unknown. Here we analyse genomic sequence data in mammals that have independently evolved echolocation and show for the first time that convergence is not a rare process restricted to a handful of loci but is instead widespread, continuously distributed and commonly driven by natural selection acting on a small number of sites per locus. Systematic analyses of convergent sequence evolution in 805,053 amino acids within 2,326 orthologous coding gene sequences compared across 22 mammals (including four new bat genomes) revealed signatures consistent with convergence in nearly 200 loci. Strong and significant support for convergence among bats and the dolphin was seen in numerous genes linked to hearing or deafness, consistent with an involvement in echolocation. Surprisingly we also found convergence in many genes linked to vision: the convergent signal of many sensory genes was robustly correlated with the strength of natural selection. This first attempt to detect genome-wide convergent sequence evolution across divergent taxa reveals the phenomenon to be much more pervasive than previously recognised

Wide-Scale Analysis of Human Functional Transcription Factor Binding Reveals a Strong Bias towards the Transcription Start Site

We introduce a novel method to screen the promoters of a set of genes with shared biological function, against a precompiled library of motifs, and find those motifs which are statistically over-represented in the gene set. The gene sets were obtained from the functional Gene Ontology (GO) classification; for each set and motif we optimized the sequence similarity score threshold, independently for every location window (measured with respect to the TSS), taking into account the location dependent nucleotide heterogeneity along the promoters of the target genes. We performed a high throughput analysis, searching the promoters (from 200bp downstream to 1000bp upstream the TSS), of more than 8000 human and 23,000 mouse genes, for 134 functional Gene Ontology classes and for 412 known DNA motifs. When combined with binding site and location conservation between human and mouse, the method identifies with high probability functional binding sites that regulate groups of biologically related genes. We found many location-sensitive functional binding events and showed that they clustered close to the TSS. Our method and findings were put to several experimental tests. By allowing a "flexible" threshold and combining our functional class and location specific search method with conservation between human and mouse, we are able to identify reliably functional TF binding sites. This is an essential step towards constructing regulatory networks and elucidating the design principles that govern transcriptional regulation of expression. The promoter region proximal to the TSS appears to be of central importance for regulation of transcription in human and mouse, just as it is in bacteria and yeast.Comment: 31 pages, including Supplementary Information and figure

Association between footwear use and neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has primarily focused on preventive chemotherapy and case management. Less attention has been placed on the role of ensuring access to adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene and personal preventive measures in reducing exposure to infection. Our aim was to assess whether footwear use was associated with a lower risk of selected NTDs. METHODOLOGY We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the association between footwear use and infection or disease for those NTDs for which the route of transmission or occurrence may be through the feet. We included Buruli ulcer, cutaneous larva migrans (CLM), leptospirosis, mycetoma, myiasis, podoconiosis, snakebite, tungiasis, and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections, particularly hookworm infection and strongyloidiasis. We searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, CINAHL Plus, and Popline databases, contacted experts, and hand-searched reference lists for eligible studies. The search was conducted in English without language, publication status, or date restrictions up to January 2014. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported a measure of the association between footwear use and the risk of each NTD. Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots. Descriptive study characteristics and methodological quality of the included studies were summarized. For each study outcome, both outcome and exposure data were abstracted and crude and adjusted effect estimates presented. Individual and summary odds ratio (OR) estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated as a measure of intervention effect, using random effects meta-analyses. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Among the 427 studies screened, 53 met our inclusion criteria. Footwear use was significantly associated with a lower odds of infection of Buruli ulcer (OR=0.15; 95% CI: 0.08-0.29), CLM (OR=0.24; 95% CI: 0.06-0.96), tungiasis (OR=0.42; 95% CI: 0.26-0.70), hookworm infection (OR=0.48; 95% CI: 0.37-0.61), any STH infection (OR=0.57; 95% CI: 0.39-0.84), strongyloidiasis (OR=0.56; 95% CI: 0.38-0.83), and leptospirosis (OR=0.59; 95% CI: 0.37-0.94). No significant association between footwear use and podoconiosis (OR=0.63; 95% CI: 0.38-1.05) was found and no data were available for mycetoma, myiasis, and snakebite. The main limitations were evidence of heterogeneity and poor study quality inherent to the observational studies included. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that footwear use was associated with a lower odds of several different NTDs. Access to footwear should be prioritized alongside existing NTD interventions to ensure a lasting reduction of multiple NTDs and to accelerate their control and elimination. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews CRD42012003338

Improving male involvement in antenatal care in low and middle-income countries to prevent mother to child transmission of HIV: A realist review

Background: Childhood Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection occurs almost exclusively via mother to child transmission (MTCT) during pregnancy, birth, or through breastfeeding. Recent studies have shown that male involvement (MI) in antenatal care (ANC) and HIV testing, including couples voluntary counselling and testing (CVCT), increases the likelihood that women will adhere to prevention advice and comply with HIV treatment if required during their pregnancy; hence reducing the rates of MTCT of HIV. This realist review investigates how, why, when, and for whom MI in ANC works best to provide contextual advice on how MI in ANC can be best used for prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV. Methods: A realist review of existing evidence was conducted. Realist review seeks to explain how and why an intervention works, or does not work, in a given context. This was completed through the five stages of realist synthesis; Eliciting the program theory, search strategy, study selection criteria, data extraction, and data analysis and synthesis. Findings are presented as context-mechanism-outcome (CMO) configurations outlining the mechanisms that work in given contexts to give an outcome. Results: Three CMO configurations were developed. These describe that 1) Couples in monogamous relationships have higher levels of trust, commitment and security leading to increased uptake of PMTCT programs together; 2) ANC spaces that make ‘male friendly’ adaptions promote normalisation of MI in PMTCT and are more welcoming, leading to increased willingness of male partners to participate in ANC; and 3) couples and communities with higher health literacy encourage increased informed decision making, ownership, and responsibility and thus increased participation in PMTCT of HIV. Conclusions: The CMOs developed in this review give contextual advice on how one might improve ANC services to increase MI and help reduce MTCT of HIV. We propose that MI in ANC works best where couples are monogamous and trusting, where ANC spaces actively promote being a ‘male friendly space’ and where there are high levels of community education programs around MTCT

Cisplatin-induced emesis: systematic review and meta-analysis of the ferret model and the effects of 5-HT3 receptor antagonists

PURPOSE: The ferret cisplatin emesis model has been used for ~30 years and enabled identification of clinically used anti-emetics. We provide an objective assessment of this model including efficacy of 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists to assess its translational validity. METHODS: A systematic review identified available evidence and was used to perform meta-analyses. RESULTS: Of 182 potentially relevant publications, 115 reported cisplatin-induced emesis in ferrets and 68 were included in the analysis. The majority (n = 53) used a 10 mg kg(−1) dose to induce acute emesis, which peaked after 2 h. More recent studies (n = 11) also used 5 mg kg(−1), which induced a biphasic response peaking at 12 h and 48 h. Overall, 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists reduced cisplatin (5 mg kg(−1)) emesis by 68% (45–91%) during the acute phase (day 1) and by 67% (48–86%) and 53% (38–68%, all P < 0.001), during the delayed phase (days 2, 3). In an analysis focused on the acute phase, the efficacy of ondansetron was dependent on the dosage and observation period but not on the dose of cisplatin. CONCLUSION: Our analysis enabled novel findings to be extracted from the literature including factors which may impact on the applicability of preclinical results to humans. It reveals that the efficacy of ondansetron is similar against low and high doses of cisplatin. Additionally, we showed that 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists have a similar efficacy during acute and delayed emesis, which provides a novel insight into the pharmacology of delayed emesis in the ferret