Master of Science

thesisModeling the relationships between climate and crop growth is an important tool to study agriculture in the past and future. Agricultural suitability models, which estimate the probability of rain-fed cultivation in a particular location, provide an opportunity to predict agricultural conditions for multiple scenarios in space and time. This thesis presents a methodological approach to developing a simple agricultural suitability model with machine learning techniques and applying it to two scenarios. First, to predict the potential impacts of climate change, the model was used to project agricultural suitability at the end of the 21st century at the global scale. Second, the model was used to predict agricultural suitability in Range Creek Canyon, an important archeological site in east-central Utah, in the 10th -13th centuries. The agricultural suitability model was supplemented with a streamflow model of Range Creek to address the potential for irrigation. The predictive power of random forest and XGBoost were compared and random forest was found to build the stronger model in this application. Applied to the future, this model predicts a net increase of 13.8-28.2% of agriculturally suitable land by AD 2100. The broad patterns agree with past suitability models, with the largest gains of suitability distributed in the high-northern latitudes. Decreases in suitability are projected in some regions, particularly in the current most intensely cultivated regions including Midwestern America. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the main driver of these shifts was changing growing season length and intensity, while changing soil moisture had a limited effect. Applied to the past in Range Creek Canyon, the model predicted very low agricultural suitability, providing evidence that rain-fed agriculture in Range Creek Canyon from AD 900-1200 was nearly impossible. Modeled Range Creek streamflow predicted that mean streamflow from AD 900-1200 was 6.34% greater than modern streamflow. The area of maize fields that could be irrigated with this amount of streamflow was approximately 30.6 hectares. The agricultural suitability model applied to two scenarios differing in scales of time and space demonstrate how it can provide meaningful insights to a broad range of past and future scenarios

Pivotal Role of Toll-Like Receptors 2 and 4, Its Adaptor Molecule MyD88, and Inflammasome Complex in Experimental Tubule-Interstitial Nephritis

Tubule-interstitial nephritis (TIN) results in decreased renal function and interstitial inflammation, which ultimately leads to fibrosis. Excessive adenine intake can cause TIN because xanthine dehydrogenase (XDH) can convert this purine into an insoluble compound, which precipitates in the tubuli. Innate immune sensors, such as Toll-like receptors (TLR) and inflammasome complex, play a crucial role in the initiation of inflammation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the roles of TLR-2 and -4, Myd88 and inflammasome complex in an experimental model of TIN. Here, we show that wild-type (WT) mice fed adenine-enriched food exhibited significant renal dysfunction and enhanced cellular infiltration accompanied by collagen deposition. They also presented higher gene and protein expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines. In contrast, TLR-2, -4, MyD88, ASC and Caspase-1 KO mice showed renoprotection associated with expression of inflammatory molecules at levels comparable to controls. Furthermore, treatment of WT animals with allopurinol, an XDH inhibitor, led to reduced levels of uric acid, oxidative stress, collagen deposition and a downregulation of the NF-kB signaling pathway. We concluded that MyD88 signaling and inflammasome participate in the development of TIN. Furthermore, inhibition of XDH seems to be a promising way to therapeutically target the developing inflammatory process

Integration of new biological and physical retrospective dosimetry methods into EU emergency response plans : joint RENEB and EURADOS inter-laboratory comparisons

Purpose: RENEB, 'Realising the European Network of Biodosimetry and Physical Retrospective Dosimetry,' is a network for research and emergency response mutual assistance in biodosimetry within the EU. Within this extremely active network, a number of new dosimetry methods have recently been proposed or developed. There is a requirement to test and/or validate these candidate techniques and inter-comparison exercises are a well-established method for such validation. Materials and methods: The authors present details of inter-comparisons of four such new methods: dicentric chromosome analysis including telomere and centromere staining; the gene expression assay carried out in whole blood; Raman spectroscopy on blood lymphocytes, and detection of radiation induced thermoluminescent signals in glass screens taken from mobile phones. Results: In general the results show good agreement between the laboratories and methods within the expected levels of uncertainty, and thus demonstrate that there is a lot of potential for each of the candidate techniques. Conclusions: Further work is required before the new methods can be included within the suite of reliable dosimetry methods for use by RENEB partners and others in routine and emergency response scenarios

Plasminogen Alleles Influence Susceptibility to Invasive Aspergillosis

Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is a common and life-threatening infection in immunocompromised individuals. A number of environmental and epidemiologic risk factors for developing IA have been identified. However, genetic factors that affect risk for developing IA have not been clearly identified. We report that host genetic differences influence outcome following establishment of pulmonary aspergillosis in an exogenously immune suppressed mouse model. Computational haplotype-based genetic analysis indicated that genetic variation within the biologically plausible positional candidate gene plasminogen (Plg; Gene ID 18855) correlated with murine outcome. There was a single nonsynonymous coding change (Gly110Ser) where the minor allele was found in all of the susceptible strains, but not in the resistant strains. A nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (Asp472Asn) was also identified in the human homolog (PLG; Gene ID 5340). An association study within a cohort of 236 allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients revealed that alleles at this SNP significantly affected the risk of developing IA after HSCT. Furthermore, we demonstrated that plasminogen directly binds to Aspergillus fumigatus. We propose that genetic variation within the plasminogen pathway influences the pathogenesis of this invasive fungal infection

Quantifying primaquine effectiveness and improving adherence: a round table discussion of the APMEN Vivax Working Group.

The goal to eliminate malaria from the Asia-Pacific by 2030 will require the safe and widespread delivery of effective radical cure of malaria. In October 2017, the Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network Vivax Working Group met to discuss the impediments to primaquine (PQ) radical cure, how these can be overcome and the methodological difficulties in assessing clinical effectiveness of radical cure. The salient discussions of this meeting which involved 110 representatives from 18 partner countries and 21 institutional partner organizations are reported. Context specific strategies to improve adherence are needed to increase understanding and awareness of PQ within affected communities; these must include education and health promotion programs. Lessons learned from other disease programs highlight that a package of approaches has the greatest potential to change patient and prescriber habits, however optimizing the components of this approach and quantifying their effectiveness is challenging. In a trial setting, the reactivity of participants results in patients altering their behaviour and creates inherent bias. Although bias can be reduced by integrating data collection into the routine health care and surveillance systems, this comes at a cost of decreasing the detection of clinical outcomes. Measuring adherence and the factors that relate to it, also requires an in-depth understanding of the context and the underlying sociocultural logic that supports it. Reaching the elimination goal will require innovative approaches to improve radical cure for vivax malaria, as well as the methods to evaluate its effectiveness

Combined Associations of a Polygenic Risk Score and Classical Risk Factors With Breast Cancer Risk.

We evaluated the joint associations between a new 313-variant PRS (PRS313) and questionnaire-based breast cancer risk factors for women of European ancestry, using 72 284 cases and 80 354 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Interactions were evaluated using standard logistic regression and a newly developed case-only method for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen receptor status. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not find evidence that per-standard deviation PRS313 odds ratio differed across strata defined by individual risk factors. Goodness-of-fit tests did not reject the assumption of a multiplicative model between PRS313 and each risk factor. Variation in projected absolute lifetime risk of breast cancer associated with classical risk factors was greater for women with higher genetic risk (PRS313 and family history) and, on average, 17.5% higher in the highest vs lowest deciles of genetic risk. These findings have implications for risk prevention for women at increased risk of breast cancer

Common variants in breast cancer risk loci predispose to distinct tumor subtypes.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common breast cancer susceptibility variants. Many of these variants have differential associations by estrogen receptor (ER) status, but how these variants relate with other tumor features and intrinsic molecular subtypes is unclear. METHODS: Among 106,571 invasive breast cancer cases and 95,762 controls of European ancestry with data on 173 breast cancer variants identified in previous GWAS, we used novel two-stage polytomous logistic regression models to evaluate variants in relation to multiple tumor features (ER, progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and grade) adjusting for each other, and to intrinsic-like subtypes. RESULTS: Eighty-five of 173 variants were associated with at least one tumor feature (false discovery rate < 5%), most commonly ER and grade, followed by PR and HER2. Models for intrinsic-like subtypes found nearly all of these variants (83 of 85) associated at p < 0.05 with risk for at least one luminal-like subtype, and approximately half (41 of 85) of the variants were associated with risk of at least one non-luminal subtype, including 32 variants associated with triple-negative (TN) disease. Ten variants were associated with risk of all subtypes in different magnitude. Five variants were associated with risk of luminal A-like and TN subtypes in opposite directions. CONCLUSION: This report demonstrates a high level of complexity in the etiology heterogeneity of breast cancer susceptibility variants and can inform investigations of subtype-specific risk prediction

Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Subtypes

Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.NovartisEli Lilly and CompanyAstraZenecaAbbViePfizer UKCelgeneEisaiGenentechMerck Sharp and DohmeRocheCancer Research UKGovernment of CanadaArray BioPharmaGenome CanadaNational Institutes of HealthEuropean CommissionMinistère de l'Économie, de l’Innovation et des Exportations du QuébecSeventh Framework ProgrammeCanadian Institutes of Health Researc