The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Intravenous Stem Cell Therapy for High-Grade Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Case Report and Literature Review

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is associated with high mortality (30%-40%) and morbidity with long-term physical, neurologic, and psychological impairments; most patients present with high initial Hunt and Hess grade. In view of the great need for efficacious therapies for high-grade SAH, recent animal studies have demonstrated improved outcomes with administration of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) as a potential neuroregenerative strategy. We present the first case of human intravenous administration of MSCs after aneurysmal SAH. An 80-year-old man presented with sudden severe headache with nausea and vomiting. Computed tomography demonstrated SAH with hydrocephalus from a ruptured basilar tip aneurysm. Initial examination of the patient showed Hunt and Hess grade 5 and World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grade 5. The patient was treated with external ventricular drain placement and coiling of aneurysm. The patient received an infusion of intravenous bone marrow-derived allogeneic MSCs on day 3 postbleed. The patient made a better recovery than anticipated with a modified Rankin Scale score of 3 at 6 months. Several studies using models of ischemic brain injury have found that administration of MSCs may improve functional neurologic recovery and decrease brain lesion volume. Although there have been limited human studies in patients with stroke, the role of stem cell therapy for aneurysmal SAH remains unclear. This is the first case of use of MSCs in a patient for treatment of aneurysmal SAH. In conjunction with the promising results in animal studies, this encouraging preliminary case report supports the need for additional clinical trials

A pragmatic multi-institutional approach to understanding transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy after stem cell transplant

Transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA) is a severe complication of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). A single-center prospective screening study has shown that the incidence of TA-TMA is much higher than prior retrospective studies that did not systematically screen. These data have not been replicated in a multicenter study. Our objective was to determine the incidence and risk factors for TA-TMA and compare outcomes of pediatric HSCT patients with and without TA-TMA. Patients were prospectively screened for TA-TMA at participating centers using a simple to implement and inexpensive strategy from the start of the preparative regimen through day +100. TA-TMA was diagnosed if ≥4 of 7 laboratory/clinical markers diagnostic for TA-TMA were present concurrently or if tissue histology showed TA-TMA. A total of 614 patients (359 males; 58%) received prospective TA-TMA screening at 13 pediatric centers. TA-TMA was diagnosed in 98 patients (16%) at a median of 22 days (interquartile range, 14-44) posttransplant. Patients with TA-TMA had significantly increased bloodstream infections (38% [37/98] vs 21% [107/51], P ≤ .001), mean total hospitalization days (68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 63-74 vs 43; 95% CI, 41-45; P ≤ .001), and number of days spent in the intensive care unit (10.1; 95% CI, 6.4-14; vs 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2; P ≤ .001) in the first 100 days after HSCT compared with patients without TA-TMA. Overall survival was significantly higher in patients without TA-TMA (93%; 490/516) compared with patients with TA-TMA (78%; 76/98) (P ≤ .001). These data support the need for systematic screening for TA-TMA and demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of an easy to implement strategy to do so

Effect of Anticholinergic Use for the Treatment of Overactive Bladder on Cognitive Function in Postmenopausal Women

BACKGROUND: Overactive bladder (OAB) is a common condition affecting the elderly. The mainstay of treatment for OAB is medical therapy with anticholinergics. However, adverse events have been reported with this class of drugs including cognitive changes. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of an anticholinergic medication on cognitive function in postmenopausal women being treated for OAB. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study conducted from January to December 2010, with 12-week follow-up after medication initiation. SETTING: Urogynecology clinic at one academic medical center. PATIENTS: Women age 55 or older seeking treatment for OAB and opting for anticholinergic therapy were recruited. INTERVENTION: Baseline cognitive function was assessed via the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test – Revised Form (HVLT-R) (and its 5 subscales), the Orientation, Memory & Concentration (OMC) short form, and the Mini-Cog evaluation. After initiation of trospium chloride extended release, cognitive function was reassessed at Day 1, Week 1, Week 4 and Week 12. Bladder function was assessed via three condition-specific quality of life questionnaires. Secondary outcomes included change in bladder symptoms, correlation between cognitive and bladder symptoms, and overall medication compliance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Change in HVLT-R score at Week 4 after medication initiation, compared to baseline (pre-medication) score. RESULTS: Of 50 women enrolled, 35 completed the assessment. Average age was 70.4 years and 77.1% had previously taken anticholinergic medication for OAB. At enrollment 65.7% had severe overactive bladder and 71.4% had severe urge incontinence. Cognitive function showed an initial decline on Day 1 in HVLT-R total score (p=0.037), HVLT-R Delayed Recognition subscale (p=0.011) and HVLT-R Recognition Bias subscale (p=0.01). At Week 1 the HVLT-R Learning subscale declined from baseline (p=0.029). All HVLT-R scores normalized by Week 4. OMC remained stable throughout. The Mini-Cog nadired at a 90.9% pass rate at Week 4. OAB symptoms did not improve until Week 4, based on questionnaire scores (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Cognitive function exhibited early changes after initiation of trospium chloride but normalized within four weeks. Cognitive changes occurred weeks prior to OAB symptom improvement. Surveillance for cognitive changes with anticholinergic use should be part of OAB management

Antepartum dalteparin versus no antepartum dalteparin for the prevention of pregnancy complications in pregnant women with thrombophilia (TIPPS): a multinational open-label randomised trial

International audienceBACKGROUND: Thrombophilias are common disorders that increase the risk of pregnancy-associated venous thromboembolism and pregnancy loss and can also increase the risk of placenta-mediated pregnancy complications (severe pre-eclampsia, small-for-gestational-age infants, and placental abruption). We postulated that antepartum dalteparin would reduce these complications in pregnant women with thrombophilia. METHODS: In this open-label randomised trial undertaken in 36 tertiary care centres in five countries, we enrolled consenting pregnant women with thrombophilia at increased risk of venous thromboembolism or with previous placenta-mediated pregnancy complications. Eligible participants were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to either antepartum prophylactic dose dalteparin (5000 international units once daily up to 20 weeks' gestation, and twice daily thereafter until at least 37 weeks' gestation) or to no antepartum dalteparin (control group). Randomisation was done by a web-based randomisation system, and was stratified by country and gestational age at randomisation day with a permuted block design (block sizes 4 and 8). At randomisation, site pharmacists (or delegates) received a randomisation number and treatment allocation (by fax and/or e-mail) from the central web randomisation system and then dispensed study drug to the local coordinator. Patients and study personnel were not masked to treatment assignment, but the outcome adjudicators were masked. The primary composite outcome was independently adjudicated severe or early-onset pre-eclampsia, small-for-gestational-age infant (birthweight <10th percentile), pregnancy loss, or venous thromboembolism. We did intention-to-treat and on-treatment analyses. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00967382, and with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN87441504. FINDINGS: Between Feb 28, 2000, and Sept 14, 2012, 292 women consented to participate and were randomly assigned to the two groups. Three women were excluded after randomisation because of ineligibility (two in the antepartum dalteparin group and one in the control group), leaving 146 women assigned to antepartum dalteparin and 143 assigned to no antepartum dalteparin. Some patients crossed over to the other group during treatment, and therefore for on-treatment and safety analysis there were 143 patients in the dalteparin group and 141 in the no dalteparin group. Dalteparin did not reduce the incidence of the primary composite outcome in both intention-to-treat analysis (dalteparin 25/146 [17.1%; 95% CI 11.4-24.2%] vs no dalteparin 27/143 [18.9%; 95% CI 12.8-26.3%]; risk difference -1.8% [95% CI -10.6% to 7.1%)) and on-treatment analysis (dalteparin 28/143 [19.6%] vs no dalteparin 24/141 [17.0%]; risk difference +2.6% [95% CI -6.4 to 11.6%]). In safety analysis, the occurrence of major bleeding did not differ between the two groups. However, minor bleeding was more common in the dalteparin group (28/143 [19.6%]) than in the no dalteparin group (13/141 [9.2%]; risk difference 10.4%, 95% CI 2.3-18.4; p=0.01). INTERPRETATION: Antepartum prophylactic dalteparin does not reduce the occurrence of venous thromboembolism, pregnancy loss, or placenta-mediated pregnancy complications in pregnant women with thrombophilia at high risk of these complications and is associated with an increased risk of minor bleeding. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, and Pharmacia and UpJohn

Nursing home nurses’ and community-dwelling older adults’ reported knowledge, attitudes, and behavior toward antibiotic use

Background Antibiotic overuse causes antibiotic resistance, one of the most important threats to human health. Older adults, particularly those in nursing homes, often receive antibiotics when they are not indicated. Methods To understand knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of nursing home (NH) nurses and community-dwelling older adults towards antibiotic use, especially in clinical situations consistent with antibiotic overuse, we conducted a mixed-method survey in two NHs and one Family Medicine clinic in North Carolina, among English-speaking nurses and community-dwelling, cognitively intact adults aged 65 years or older. Based on the Knowledge-Attitude-Practice model, the survey assessed knowledge, attitudes, and behavior towards antibiotic use, including three vignettes designed to elicit possible antibiotic overuse: asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB), a viral upper respiratory illness (URI), and a wound from a fall. Results Of 31 NH nurses and 66 community-dwelling older adults, 70% reported knowledge of the dangers of taking antibiotics. Nurses more often reported evidence-based attitudes towards antibiotics than older adults, except 39% agreed with the statement “by the time I am sick enough to go to the doctor with a cold, I expect an antibiotic”, while only 28% of older adults agreed with it. A majority of nurses did not see the need for antibiotics in any of the three vignettes: 77% for the ASB vignette, 87% for the URI vignette, and 97% for the wound vignette. Among older adults, 50% did not perceive a need for antibiotics in the ASB vignette, 58% in the URI vignette, and 74% in the wound vignette. Conclusions While a substantial minority had no knowledge of the dangers of antibiotic use, non-evidence-based attitudes towards antibiotics, and behaviors indicating inappropriate management of suspected infections, most NH nurses and community-dwelling older adults know the harms of antibiotic use and demonstrate evidence-based attitudes and behaviors. However, more work is needed to improve the knowledge, attitudes and behaviors that may contribute to antibiotic overuse