A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Tearing Out the Income Tax by the (Grass)Roots

Landscapes are increasingly fragmented, and conservation programs have started to look at network approaches for maintaining populations at a larger scale. We present an agent-based model of predator–prey dynamics where the agents (i.e. the individuals of either the predator or prey population) are able to move between different patches in a landscaped network. We then analyze population level and coexistence probability given node-centrality measures that characterize specific patches. We show that both predator and prey species benefit from living in globally well-connected patches (i.e. with high closeness centrality). However, the maximum number of prey species is reached, on average, at lower closeness centrality levels than for predator species. Hence, prey species benefit from constraints imposed on species movement in fragmented landscapes since they can reproduce with a lesser risk of predation, and their need for using anti-predatory strategies decreases.authorCount :

Methods to convert continuous outcomes into odds ratios of treatment response and numbers needed to treat: meta-epidemiological study

Background Clinicians find standardized mean differences (SMDs) calculated from continuous outcomes difficult to interpret. Our objective was to determine the performance of methods in converting SMDs or means to odds ratios of treatment response and numbers needed to treat (NNTs) as more intuitive measures of treatment effect. Methods Meta-epidemiological study of large-scale trials (≥100 patients per group) comparing active treatment with placebo, sham or non-intervention control. Trials had to use pain or global symptoms as continuous outcomes and report both the percentage of patients with treatment response and mean pain or symptom scores per group. For each trial, we calculated odds ratios of observed treatment response and NNTs and approximated these estimates from SMDs or means using all five currently available conversion methods by Hasselblad and Hedges (HH), Cox and Snell (CS), Furukawa (FU), Suissa (SU) and Kraemer and Kupfer (KK). We compared observed and approximated values within trials by deriving pooled ratios of odds ratios (RORs) and differences in NNTs. ROR <1 and positive differences in NNTs imply that approximations are more conservative than estimates calculated from observed treatment response. As measures of agreement, we calculated intraclass correlation coefficients. Results A total of 29 trials in 13 654 patients were included. Four out of five methods were suitable (HH, CS, FU, SU), with RORs between 0.92 for SU [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.86-0.99] and 0.97 for HH (95% CI, 0.91-1.04) and differences in NNTs between 0.5 (95% CI, −0.1 to −1.6) and 1.3 (95% CI, 0.4-2.1). Intraclass correlation coefficients were ≥0.90 for these four methods, but ≤0.76 for the fifth method by KK (P for differences ≤0.027). Conclusions The methods by HH, CS, FU and SU are suitable to convert summary treatment effects calculated from continuous outcomes into odds ratios of treatment response and NNTs, whereas the method by KK is unsuitabl

Measuring Invisible Particle Masses Using a Single Short Decay Chain

We consider the mass measurement at hadron colliders for a decay chain of two steps, which ends with a missing particle. Such a topology appears as a subprocess of signal events of many new physics models which contain a dark matter candidate. From the two visible particles coming from the decay chain, only one invariant mass combination can be formed and hence it is na\"ively expected that the masses of the three invisible particles in the decay chain cannot be determined from a single end point of the invariant mass distribution. We show that the event distribution in the $\log(E_{1T}/E_{2T})$ vs. invariant mass-squared plane, where $E_{1T}$, $E_{2T}$ are the transverse energies of the two visible particles, contains the information of all three invisible particle masses and allows them to be extracted individually. The experimental smearing and combinatorial issues pose challenges to the mass measurements. However, in many cases the three invisible particle masses in the decay chain can be determined with reasonable accuracies.Comment: 45 pages, 32 figure

Cycles of Police Reform in Latin America.

yesOver the last quarter century post-conflict and post-authoritarian transitions in Latin America have been accompanied by a surge in social violence, acquisitive crime, and insecurity. These phenomena have been driven by an expanding international narcotics trade, by the long-term effects of civil war and counter-insurgency (resulting in, inter alia, an increased availability of small arms and a pervasive grammar of violence), and by structural stresses on society (unemployment, hyper-inflation, widening income inequality). Local police forces proved to be generally ineffective in preventing, resolving, or detecting such crime and forms of “new violence”3 due to corruption, frequent complicity in criminal networks, poor training and low pay, and the routine use of excessive force without due sanction. Why, then, have governments been slow to prioritize police reform and why have reform efforts borne largely “limited or nonexistent” long-term results? This chapter highlights a number of lessons suggested by various efforts to reform the police in Latin America over the period 1995-2010 . It focuses on two clusters of countries in Latin America. One is Brazil and the Southern Cone countries (Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay), which made the transition to democracy from prolonged military authoritarian rule in the mid- to late 1980s. The other is Central America and the Andean region (principally El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Peru, and Colombia), which emerged/have been emerging from armed conflict since the mid- 1990s. The chapter examines first the long history of international involvement in police and security sector reform in order to identify long-run tropes and path dependencies. It then focuses on a number of recurring themes: cycles of de- and re-militarization of the policing function; the “security gap” and “democratization dilemmas” involved in structural reforms; the opportunities offered by decentralization for more community-oriented police; and police capacity to resist reform and undermine accountability mechanisms

The CAG repeat at the Huntington disease gene in the Portuguese population : insights into its dynamics and to the origin of the mutation

Huntington disease (HD) is caused by an expansion of a CAG repeat. This repeat is a dynamic mutation that tends to undergo intergenerational instability. We report the analysis of the CAG repeat in a large population sample (2,000 chromosomes) covering all regions of Portugal, and a haplotype study of (CAG)n and (CCG)n repeats in 140 HD Portuguese families. Intermediate class 2 alleles represented 3.0% of the population; and two expanded alleles (36 and 40 repeats, 0.11%) were found. There was no evidence for geographical clustering of the intermediate or expanded alleles. The Portuguese families showed three different HD founder haplotypes associated with 7-, 9- or 10-CCG repeats, suggesting the possibility of different origins for theHDmutation among this population. The haplotype carrying the 7-CCG repeat was the most frequent, both in normal and in expanded alleles. In general, we propose that three mechanisms, occurring at different times,may lead to the evolution from normal CAGs to full expansion: first, a mutation bias towards larger alleles; then, a stepwise process that could explain the CAGdistributions observed in themore recent haplotypes; and, finally, a pool of intermediate (class 2) alleles more prone to give rise to expanded HD alleles.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - SFRH/BD/9759/ 2003.Instituto de Genética Médica Jacinto Magalhães

Conservation of geosites as a tool to protect geoheritage: the inventory of Ceará Central Domain, Borborema Province - NE/Brazil

The Ceará Central Domain, in the northern Borborema Province/NE Brazil, encompasses important geological records (geosites) which allow understanding a relevant period of the Earth’s evolution, mainly associated to Neoproterozoic Brazilian/Pan-African Cycle and West Gondwana amalgamation, besides Neoarchean to Ordovician records. The presented geoheritage inventory aims to characterise the geosites with scienti c relevance of Ceará Central Domain. By applying a method for large areas, the nal selection resulted in eight geological frameworks represented by 52 geosites documented in a single database. This is the rst step for a geoconservation strategy based on systematic inventories, statutory protection, geoethical behaviour and awareness about scienti c, educational and/or cultural relevance of geosites.We specially thank all experts that helped us with this inventory: Afonso Almeida, Carlos E.G. de Araújo, César Veríssimo, Christiano Magini, Clóvis Vaz Parente, Felipe G. Costa, Irani C. Mattos, Neivaldo de Castro, Otaciel de Melo, Sebástian G. Chiozza, Ticiano Santos and Stefano Zincone. We are also thankful to Kátia Mansur, Ricardo Fraga Pereira and anonymous reviewers for their valuable contributions. PM is grateful to Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) for PhD mobility scholarship PDSE Program/Process n 88881.132168/2016-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Population Genetics of Franciscana Dolphins (Pontoporia blainvillei): Introducing a New Population from the Southern Edge of Their Distribution

Due to anthropogenic factors, the franciscana dolphin, Pontoporia blainvillei, is the most threatened small cetacean on the Atlantic coast of South America. Four Franciscana Management Areas have been proposed: Espiritu Santo to Rio de Janeiro (FMA I), São Paulo to Santa Catarina (FMA II), Rio Grande do Sul to Uruguay (FMA III), and Argentina (FMA IV). Further genetic studies distinguished additional populations within these FMAs. We analyzed the population structure, phylogeography, and demographic history in the southernmost portion of the species range. From the analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences, 5 novel haplotypes were found, totalizing 60 haplotypes for the entire distribution range. The haplotype network did not show an apparent phylogeographical signal for the southern FMAs. Two populations were identified: Monte Hermoso (MH) and Necochea (NC)+Claromecó (CL)+Río Negro (RN). The low levels of genetic variability, the relative constant size over time, and the low levels of gene flow may indicate that MH has been colonized by a few maternal lineages and became isolated from geographically close populations. The apparent increase in NC+CL+RN size would be consistent with the higher genetic variability found, since genetic diversity is generally higher in older and expanding populations. Additionally, RN may have experienced a recent split from CL and NC; current high levels of gene flow may be occurring between the latter ones. FMA IV would comprise four franciscana dolphin populations: Samborombón West+Samborombón South, Cabo San Antonio+Buenos Aires East, NC+CL+Buenos Aires Southwest+RN and MH. Results achieved in this study need to be taken into account in order to ensure the long-term survival of the species.Fil: Gariboldi, María Constanza. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Maimónides. Área de Investigaciones Biomédicas y Biotecnológicas. Centro de Estudios Biomédicos, Biotecnológicos, Ambientales y de Diagnóstico; ArgentinaFil: Tunez, Juan Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Luján; ArgentinaFil: Dejean, Cristina Beatriz. Universidad Maimónides. Área de Investigaciones Biomédicas y Biotecnológicas. Centro de Estudios Biomédicos, Biotecnológicos, Ambientales y de Diagnóstico; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Ciencias Antropológicas. Sección Antropología Biológica; ArgentinaFil: Failla, Mauricio. Fundación Cethus; ArgentinaFil: Vitullo, Alfredo Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Maimónides. Área de Investigaciones Biomédicas y Biotecnológicas. Centro de Estudios Biomédicos, Biotecnológicos, Ambientales y de Diagnóstico; ArgentinaFil: Negri, Maria Fernanda. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales ; ArgentinaFil: Cappozzo, Humberto Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Maimónides. Área de Investigaciones Biomédicas y Biotecnológicas. Centro de Estudios Biomédicos, Biotecnológicos, Ambientales y de Diagnóstico; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales ; Argentin

Population genetics of wild-type CAG repeats in the Machado-Joseph disease gene in Portugal

To gain insights on the molecular mechanisms of mutation that led to the emergence of expanded alleles in the MJD gene, by studying the behavior of wild-type alleles and testing the association of its distribution with the representation of the disease. Methods: The number of CAG motifs in the MJD gene was determined in a representative sample of 1000 unrelated individuals. Associations between the repeat size and the epidemiological representation of MJD were tested. Results: The allelic profi le of the total sample was in the normal range (13–41 repeats), with mode (CAG) 23 . No intermediate alleles were present. Allelic size distribution showed a negative skew. The correlation between the epidemiological representation of MJD in each district and the frequency of small, medium and large normal alleles was not signifi cant. Further correlations performed grouping the districts also failed to produce signifi cant results. Conclusions: The absence of association between the size of the repeats and the representation of MJD demonstrates that prevalence is not an indirect refl ection of the frequency of large normal alleles. Globally the results obtained are in accordance with a model that postulates the occurrence of a few mutations on the basis of most of the MJD cases worldwide

Circadian changes and sex-related differences in fetal heart rate parameters

BACKGROUND: Previous researchers have studied circadian changes in the fetal heart rate (FHR) on small sample sizes and in a strictly controlled environment. This study was undertaken to investigate these changes during the late second and third trimesters, using a portable fetal electrocardiogram recording device (Monica AN24) in pregnant women in home and hospital environments with unrestricted mobility. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 54 pregnant women with uncomplicated singleton pregnancies between 25 and 40 weeks gestation. FHR recordings were made up to 16 h at home or in the hospital setting in the United Kingdom. FHR data over 90 min periods were averaged and the day (7:00 am-11:00 pm) and night (11:00 pm-7:00 am) data from the same individual were compared. Data were examined for evidence of sex-related differences. RESULTS: During the night, there was a significant reduction in basal heart rate (bFHR) and a significant increase in short term variation (STV) and long term variation (LTV) (P < 0.05). Basal FHR decreased (P < 0.002), whereas LTV increased (P = 0.014) with advancing gestation. Male fetuses showed greater day: night variation than females regardless of gestation (P = 0.014). There was a higher bFHR in fetuses monitored during the day in hospital (P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that there are sex-, environment and time-related differences in the FHR parameters measured. These differences may need to be considered taken when interpreting FHR data