Development and validation of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score

BACKGROUND: Health services have failed to respond to the pressures of multimorbidity. Improved measures of multimorbidity are needed for conducting research, planning services and allocating resources. METHODS: We modelled the association between 37 morbidities and 3 key outcomes (primary care consultations, unplanned hospital admission, death) at 1 and 5 years. We extracted development (n = 300 000) and validation (n = 150 000) samples from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We constructed a general-outcome multimorbidity score by averaging the standardized weights of the separate outcome scores. We compared performance with the Charlson Comorbidity Index. RESULTS: Models that included all 37 conditions were acceptable predictors of general practitioner consultations (C-index 0.732, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.731-0.734), unplanned hospital admission (C-index 0.742, 95% CI 0.737-0.747) and death at 1 year (C-index 0.912, 95% CI 0.905-0.918). Models reduced to the 20 conditions with the greatest combined prevalence/weight showed similar predictive ability (C-indices 0.727, 95% CI 0.725-0.728; 0.738, 95% CI 0.732-0.743; and 0.910, 95% CI 0.904-0.917, respectively). They also predicted 5-year outcomes similarly for consultations and death (C-indices 0.735, 95% CI 0.734-0.736, and 0.889, 95% CI 0.885-0.892, respectively) but performed less well for admissions (C-index 0.708, 95% CI 0.705-0.712). The performance of the general-outcome score was similar to that of the outcome-specific models. These models performed significantly better than those based on the Charlson Comorbidity Index for consultations (C-index 0.691, 95% CI 0.690-0.693) and admissions (C-index 0.703, 95% CI 0.697-0.709) and similarly for mortality (C-index 0.907, 95% CI 0.900-0.914). INTERPRETATION: The Cambridge Multimorbidity Score is robust and can be either tailored or not tailored to specific health outcomes. It will be valuable to those planning clinical services, policymakers allocating resources and researchers seeking to account for the effect of multimorbidity

Cost-Effectiveness Findings from the Agewell Pilot Study of Behaviour Change to Promote Health and Wellbeing in Later Life.

Background: Participation in cognitive and physical activities may help to maintain health and wellbeing in older people. The Agewell study explored the feasibility of increasing cognitive and physical activity in older people through a goal-setting approach. This paper describes the findings of the cost-effectiveness analysis. Method: Individuals over the age of 50 and attending an Agewell centre in North Wales were randomised to one of three conditions: control (IC), goal-setting (GS), or goal-setting with mentoring (GM). We undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing GS vs. IC, GM vs. IC and GM vs. GS. The primary outcome measure for this analysis was the QALY, calculated using the EQ-5D. Participants’ health and social care contacts were recorded and costed using national unit costs. Results: Seventy participants were followed-up at 12 months. Intervention set up and delivery costs were £252 per participant in the GS arm and £269 per participant in the GM arm. Mean health and social care costs over 12 months were £1,240 (s.d. £3,496) per participant in the IC arm, £1,259 (s.d. £3,826) per participant in the GS arm and £1,164 (s.d. £2,312) per participant in the GM arm. At a willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY there was a 65% probability that GS was cost-effective compared to IC (ICER of £1,070). However, there was only a 41% probability that GM was cost-effective compared to IC (ICER of £2,830) at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY. Conclusion: Setting up and running the community based intervention was feasible. Due to the small sample size it is not possible to draw a firm conclusion about cost-effectiveness; however, our preliminary results suggest that goal- setting is likely to be cost-effective compared to the control condition of no goal-setting, the addition of mentoring was effective but not cost-effective.Lifelong Health and Well-being Programme through the Medical Research Counci

Redox linked flavin sites in extracellular decaheme proteins involved in microbe-mineral electron transfer

Extracellular microbe-mineral electron transfer is a major driving force for the oxidation of organic carbon in many subsurface environments. Extracellular multi-heme cytochromes of the Shewenella genus play a major role in this process but the mechanism of electron exchange at the interface between cytochrome and acceptor is widely debated. The 1.8 Å x-ray crystal structure of the decaheme MtrC revealed a highly conserved CX8C disulfide that, when substituted for AX8A, severely compromised the ability of S. oneidensis to grow under aerobic conditions. Reductive cleavage of the disulfide in the presence of flavin mononucleotide (FMN) resulted in the reversible formation of a stable flavocytochrome. Similar results were also observed with other decaheme cytochromes, OmcA, MtrF and UndA. The data suggest that these decaheme cytochromes can transition between highly reactive flavocytochromes or less reactive cytochromes, and that this transition is controlled by a redox active disulfide that responds to the presence of oxygen

Field-Aligned Current During an Interval of BY-Dominated Interplanetary-Field; Modeled-to-Observed Comparisons

We model an interval of remarkable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), for which we have a comprehensive set of observational data. This interval is associated with the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection. The solar wind densities at the time are particularly high and the IMF is primarily northward over many hours. This results in strong auroral emissions within the polar cap in a cusp spot, which we associate with lobe reconnection at the high-latitude magnetopause. We also observe areas of upwards field-aligned current (FAC) within the summer Northern Hemisphere polar cap that exhibit large current magnitudes. The model can reproduce the spatial distribution of the FACs well, even under changing conditions in the incoming IMF. Discrepancies exist between the modeled and observed current magnitudes. Notably, the winter Southern Hemisphere exhibits much lower current magnitudes overall. We also model a sharp transition of the location of magnetopause reconnection at the beginning of the interval, before the IMF remained northward for many hours. The reconnection location changed rapidly from a subsolar location at the low-latitude magnetopause under southward IMF conditions, to a high-latitude lobe reconnection location when the field is northward. This occurs during a fast rotation of the IMF at the shock front of a magnetic cloud

The Agewell trial: a pilot randomised controlled trial of a behaviour change intervention to promote healthy ageing and reduce risk of dementia in later life.

This is the final version of the article. Available from BioMed Central via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: Lifestyle factors represent prime targets for behaviour change interventions to promote healthy ageing and reduce dementia risk. We evaluated a goal-setting intervention aimed at promoting increased cognitive and physical activity and improving mental and physical fitness, diet and health. METHODS: This was a pilot randomised controlled trial designed to guide planning for a larger-scale investigation, provide preliminary evidence regarding efficacy, and explore feasibility and acceptability. Primary outcomes were engagement in physical and cognitive activity. Participants aged over 50 living independently in the community were recruited through a community Agewell Centre. Following baseline assessment participants were randomly allocated to one of three conditions: control (IC) had an interview in which information about activities and health was discussed; goal-setting (GS n = 24) had an interview in which they set behaviour change goals relating to physical, cognitive and social activity, health and nutrition; and goal-setting with mentoring (GM, n = 24) had the goal-setting interview followed by bi-monthly telephone mentoring. Participants and researchers were blinded to group assignment. Participants were reassessed after 12 months. RESULTS: Seventy-five participants were randomised (IC n = 27, GS n = 24, GM n = 24). At 12-month follow-up, the two goal-setting groups, taken together (GS n = 21, GM n = 22), increased their level of physical (effect size 0.37) and cognitive (effect size 0.15) activity relative to controls (IC n = 27). In secondary outcomes, the two goal-setting groups taken together achieved additional benefits compared to control (effect sizes ≥ 0.2) in memory, executive function, cholesterol level, aerobic capacity, flexibility, balance, grip strength, and agility. Adding follow-up mentoring produced further benefits compared to goal-setting alone (effect sizes ≥ 0.2) in physical activity, body composition, global cognition and memory, but not in other domains. Implementation of the recruitment procedure, assessment and intervention was found to be feasible and the approach taken was acceptable to participants, with no adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: A brief, low-cost goal-setting intervention is feasible and acceptable, and has the potential to achieve increased activity engagement. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN30080637.This trial was funded by Medical Research Council grant G1001888/1 to LC, JVH, IRJ, JT and CJW. The funding body played no role in the design of the study, in collection, analysis and interpretation of data, in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. We acknowledge the support of Age Cymru Gwynedd a Môn including John Clifford Jones, Maldwyn Roberts, Stephen Williams and Mici Plwm. We would like to thank Sharman Harris and Catrin Searell, Department of Clinical Chemistry, Ysbyty Gwynedd, Bangor, the volunteers at the Nefyn Agewell Centre, and all the members of the Nefyn Agewell Centre, and especially all those who took part in the research project. We are grateful to Professor Carol Brayne, Cambridge University, Professor Martin Knapp, London School of Economics, Professor Mike Martin, Zürich University, and Professor Robin Morris, King’s College London Institute of Psychiatry, who acted as external advisors to the project. Special thanks go to Andrew Brand for statistical advice

Anthropometric indices of Gambian children after one or three annual rounds of mass drug administration with azithromycin for trachoma control.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin, carried out for the control of blinding trachoma, has been linked to reduced mortality in children. While the mechanism behind this reduction is unclear, it may be due, in part, to improved nutritional status via a potential reduction in the community burden of infectious disease. To determine whether MDA with azithromycin improves anthropometric indices at the community level, we measured the heights and weights of children aged 1 to 4 years in communities where one (single MDA arm) or three annual rounds (annual MDA arm) of azithromycin had been distributed. METHODS: Data collection took place three years after treatment in the single MDA arm and one year after the final round of treatment in the annual MDA arm. Mean height-for-age, weight-for-age and weight-for-height z scores were compared between treatment arms. RESULTS: No significant differences in mean height-for-age, weight-for-age or weight-for-height z scores were found between the annual MDA and single MDA arms, nor was there a significant reduction in prevalence of stunting, wasting or underweight between arms. CONCLUSIONS: Our data do not provide evidence that community MDA with azithromycin improved anthropometric outcomes of children in The Gambia. This may suggest reductions in mortality associated with azithromycin MDA are due to a mechanism other than improved nutritional status

Catastrophizing mediates the relationship between the personal belief in a just world and pain outcomes among chronic pain support group attendees

Health-related research suggests the belief in a just world can act as a personal resource that protects against the adverse effects of pain and illness. However, currently, little is known about how this belief, particularly in relation to one’s own life, might influence pain. Consistent with the suggestions of previous research, the present study undertook a secondary data analysis to investigate pain catastrophizing as a mediator of the relationship between the personal just world belief and chronic pain outcomes in a sample of chronic pain support group attendees. Partially supporting the hypotheses, catastrophizing was negatively correlated with the personal just world belief and mediated the relationship between this belief and pain and disability, but not distress. Suggestions for future research and intervention development are made

The importance of the weak: Interaction modifiers in artificial spin ices

The modification of geometry and interactions in two-dimensional magnetic nanosystems has enabled a range of studies addressing the magnetic order, collective low-energy dynamics, and emergent magnetic properties, in e.g. artificial spin ice structures. The common denominator of all these investigations is the use of Ising-like mesospins as building blocks, in the form of elongated magnetic islands. Here we introduce a new approach: single interaction modifiers, using slave-mesospins in the form of discs, within which the mesospin is free to rotate in the disc plane. We show that by placing these on the vertices of square artificial spin ice arrays and varying their diameter, it is possible to tailor the strength and the ratio of the interaction energies. We demonstrate the existence of degenerate ice-rule obeying states in square artificial spin ice structures, enabling the exploration of thermal dynamics in a spin liquid manifold. Furthermore, we even observe the emergence of flux lattices on larger length-scales, when the energy landscape of the vertices is reversed. The work highlights the potential of a design strategy for two-dimensional magnetic nano-architectures, through which mixed dimensionality of mesospins can be used to promote thermally emergent mesoscale magnetic states.Comment: 17 pages, including methods, 4 figures. Supplementary information contains 16 pages and 15 figure