Raising argument strength using negative evidence: A constraint on models of induction

Both intuitively, and according to similarity-based theories of induction, relevant evidence raises argument strength when it is positive and lowers it when it is negative. In three experiments, we tested the hypothesis that argument strength can actually increase when negative evidence is introduced. Two kinds of argument were compared through forced choice or sequential evaluation: single positive arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”) and double mixed arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain, X’s music DOES NOT; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”). Negative evidence in the second premise lowered credence when it applied to an item X from the same subcategory (e.g., Haydn) and raised it when it applied to a different subcategory (e.g., AC/DC). The results constitute a new constraint on models of induction

Mental States Are Like Diseases

While Quine’s linguistic behaviorism is well-known, his Kant Lectures contain one of his most detailed discussions of behaviorism in psychology and the philosophy of mind. Quine clarifies the nature of his psychological commitments by arguing for a modest view that is against ‘excessively restrictive’ variants of behaviorism while maintaining ‘a good measure of behaviorist discipline…to keep [our mental] terms under control’. In this paper, I use Quine’s Kant Lectures to reconstruct his position. I distinguish three types of behaviorism in psychology and the philosophy of mind: ontological behaviorism, logical behaviorism, and epistemological behaviorism. I then consider Quine’s perspective on each of these views and argue that he does not fully accept any of them. By combining these perspectives we arrive at Quine’s surprisingly subtle view about behaviorism in psychology

Ultrasound-based gestational-age estimation in late pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: Accurate gestational-age (GA) estimation, preferably by ultrasound measurement of fetal crown-rump length before 14 weeks' gestation, is an important component of high-quality antenatal care. The objective of this study was to determine how GA can best be estimated by fetal ultrasound for women who present for the first time late in pregnancy with uncertain or unknown menstrual dates. METHODS: INTERGROWTH-21(st) was a large, prospective, multicenter, population-based project performed in eight geographically defined urban populations. One of its principal components, the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study, aimed to develop international fetal growth standards. Each participant had their certain menstrual dates confirmed by first-trimester ultrasound examination. Fetal head circumference (HC), biparietal diameter (BPD), occipitofrontal diameter (OFD), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) were measured every 5 weeks from 14 weeks' gestation until delivery. For each participant, a single, randomly selected ultrasound examination was used to explore all candidate biometric variables and permutations to build models to predict GA. Regression equations were ranked based upon minimization of the mean prediction error, goodness of fit and model complexity. An automated machine learning algorithm, the Genetic Algorithm, was adapted to evaluate > 64 000 potential polynomial equations as predictors. RESULTS: Of the 4607 eligible women, 4321 (94%) had a pregnancy without major complications and delivered a live singleton without congenital malformations. After other exclusions (missing measurements in GA window and outliers), the final sample comprised 4229 women. Two skeletal measures, HC and FL, produced the best GA prediction, given by the equation loge (GA) = 0.03243 × (loge (HC))(2) + 0.001644 × FL × loge (HC) + 3.813. When FL was not available, the best equation based on HC alone was loge (GA) = 0.05970 × (loge (HC))(2) + 0.000000006409 × (HC)(3) + 3.3258. The estimated uncertainty of GA prediction (half width 95% interval) was 6-7 days at 14 weeks' gestation, 12-14 days at 26 weeks' gestation and > 14 days in the third trimester. The addition of FL to the HC model led to improved prediction intervals compared with using HC alone, but no further improvement in prediction was afforded by adding AC, BPD or OFD. Equations that included other measurements (BPD, OFD and AC) did not perform better. CONCLUSIONS: Among women initiating antenatal care late in pregnancy, a single set of ultrasound measurements combining HC and FL in the second trimester can be used to estimate GA with reasonable accuracy. We recommend this tool for underserved populations but considerable efforts should be implemented to improve early initiation of antenatal care worldwide. © 2016 Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology

Drug-resistant genotypes and multi-clonality in Plasmodium falciparum analysed by direct genome sequencing from peripheral blood of malaria patients.

Naturally acquired blood-stage infections of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum typically harbour multiple haploid clones. The apparent number of clones observed in any single infection depends on the diversity of the polymorphic markers used for the analysis, and the relative abundance of rare clones, which frequently fail to be detected among PCR products derived from numerically dominant clones. However, minority clones are of clinical interest as they may harbour genes conferring drug resistance, leading to enhanced survival after treatment and the possibility of subsequent therapeutic failure. We deployed new generation sequencing to derive genome data for five non-propagated parasite isolates taken directly from 4 different patients treated for clinical malaria in a UK hospital. Analysis of depth of coverage and length of sequence intervals between paired reads identified both previously described and novel gene deletions and amplifications. Full-length sequence data was extracted for 6 loci considered to be under selection by antimalarial drugs, and both known and previously unknown amino acid substitutions were identified. Full mitochondrial genomes were extracted from the sequencing data for each isolate, and these are compared against a panel of polymorphic sites derived from published or unpublished but publicly available data. Finally, genome-wide analysis of clone multiplicity was performed, and the number of infecting parasite clones estimated for each isolate. Each patient harboured at least 3 clones of P. falciparum by this analysis, consistent with results obtained with conventional PCR analysis of polymorphic merozoite antigen loci. We conclude that genome sequencing of peripheral blood P. falciparum taken directly from malaria patients provides high quality data useful for drug resistance studies, genomic structural analyses and population genetics, and also robustly represents clonal multiplicity

Organism-sediment interactions govern post-hypoxia recovery of ecosystem functioning

Hypoxia represents one of the major causes of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning loss for coastal waters. Since eutrophication-induced hypoxic events are becoming increasingly frequent and intense, understanding the response of ecosystems to hypoxia is of primary importance to understand and predict the stability of ecosystem functioning. Such ecological stability may greatly depend on the recovery patterns of communities and the return time of the system properties associated to these patterns. Here, we have examined how the reassembly of a benthic community contributed to the recovery of ecosystem functioning following experimentally-induced hypoxia in a tidal flat. We demonstrate that organism-sediment interactions that depend on organism size and relate to mobility traits and sediment reworking capacities are generally more important than recovering species richness to set the return time of the measured sediment processes and properties. Specifically, increasing macrofauna bioturbation potential during community reassembly significantly contributed to the recovery of sediment processes and properties such as denitrification, bedload sediment transport, primary production and deep pore water ammonium concentration. Such bioturbation potential was due to the replacement of the small-sized organisms that recolonised at early stages by large-sized bioturbating organisms, which had a disproportionately stronger influence on sediment. This study suggests that the complete recovery of organism-sediment interactions is a necessary condition for ecosystem functioning recovery, and that such process requires long periods after disturbance due to the slow growth of juveniles into adult stages involved in these interactions. Consequently, repeated episodes of disturbance at intervals smaller than the time needed for the system to fully recover organism-sediment interactions may greatly impair the resilience of ecosystem functioning.

Power Law versus Exponential State Transition Dynamics: Application to Sleep-Wake Architecture

BACKGROUND: Despite the common experience that interrupted sleep has a negative impact on waking function, the features of human sleep-wake architecture that best distinguish sleep continuity versus fragmentation remain elusive. In this regard, there is growing interest in characterizing sleep architecture using models of the temporal dynamics of sleep-wake stage transitions. In humans and other mammals, the state transitions defining sleep and wake bout durations have been described with exponential and power law models, respectively. However, sleep-wake stage distributions are often complex, and distinguishing between exponential and power law processes is not always straightforward. Although mono-exponential distributions are distinct from power law distributions, multi-exponential distributions may in fact resemble power laws by appearing linear on a log-log plot. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To characterize the parameters that may allow these distributions to mimic one another, we systematically fitted multi-exponential-generated distributions with a power law model, and power law-generated distributions with multi-exponential models. We used the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method to investigate goodness of fit for the "incorrect" model over a range of parameters. The "zone of mimicry" of parameters that increased the risk of mistakenly accepting power law fitting resembled empiric time constants obtained in human sleep and wake bout distributions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Recognizing this uncertainty in model distinction impacts interpretation of transition dynamics (self-organizing versus probabilistic), and the generation of predictive models for clinical classification of normal and pathological sleep architecture

Nitroxyl (HNO) Stimulates Soluble Guanylyl Cyclase to Suppress Cardiomyocyte Hypertrophy and Superoxide Generation

Background: New therapeutic targets for cardiac hypertrophy, an independent risk factor for heart failure and death, are essential. HNO is a novel redox sibling of NON attracting considerable attention for the treatment of cardiovascular disorders, eliciting cGMP-dependent vasodilatation yet cGMP-independent positive inotropy. The impact of HNO on cardiac hypertrophy (which is negatively regulated by cGMP) however has not been investigated. Methods: Neonatal rat cardiomyocytes were incubated with angiotensin II (Ang II) in the presence and absence of the HNO donor Angeli’s salt (sodium trioxodinitrate) or B-type natriuretic peptide, BNP (all 1 mmol/L). Hypertrophic responses and its triggers, as well as cGMP signaling, were determined. Results: We now demonstrate that Angeli’s salt inhibits Ang II-induced hypertrophic responses in cardiomyocytes, including increases in cardiomyocyte size, de novo protein synthesis and b-myosin heavy chain expression. Angeli’s salt also suppresses Ang II induction of key triggers of the cardiomyocyte hypertrophic response, including NADPH oxidase (on both Nox2 expression and superoxide generation), as well as p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (p38MAPK). The antihypertrophic, superoxide-suppressing and cGMP-elevating effects of Angeli’s salt were mimicked by BNP. We also demonstrate that the effects of Angeli’s salt are specifically mediated by HNO (with no role for NON or nitrite), with subsequent activation of cardiomyocyte soluble guanylyl cyclase (sGC) and cGMP signaling (on both cGMP-dependen

Variations in the Difference between Mean Sea Level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and Their Relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

We consider the extent to which the difference in mean sea level (MSL) measured on the North American Atlantic coast either side of Cape Hatteras varies as a consequence of dynamical changes in the ocean caused by fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). From analysis of tide gauge data, we know that changes in MSL-difference and NAO index are correlated on decadal to century timescales enabling a scale factor of MSL-difference change per unit change in NAO index to be estimated. Changes in trend in the NAO index have been small during the past few centuries (when measured using windows of order 60–120 years). Therefore, if the same scale factor applies through this period of time, the corresponding changes in trend in MSL-difference for the past few centuries should also have been small. It is suggested thereby that the sea level records for recent centuries obtained from salt marshes (adjusted for long-term vertical land movements) should have essentially the same NAO-driven trends south and north of Cape Hatteras, only differing due to contributions from other processes such as changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation or ‘geophysical fingerprints’. The salt marsh data evidently support this interpretation within their uncertainties for the past few centuries, and perhaps even for the past millennium. Recommendations are made on how greater insight might be obtained by acquiring more measurements and by improved modelling of the sea level response to wind along the shelf

Positive Feedbacks in Seagrass Ecosystems – Evidence from Large-Scale Empirical Data

Positive feedbacks cause a nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change and may even cause bistability. Even though the importance of feedback mechanisms has been demonstrated for many types of ecosystems, their identification and quantification is still difficult. Here, we investigated whether positive feedbacks between seagrasses and light conditions are likely in seagrass ecosystems dominated by the temperate seagrass Zostera marina. We applied a combination of multiple linear regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) on a dataset containing 83 sites scattered across Western Europe. Results confirmed that a positive feedback between sediment conditions, light conditions and seagrass density is likely to exist in seagrass ecosystems. This feedback indicated that seagrasses are able to trap and stabilize suspended sediments, which in turn improves water clarity and seagrass growth conditions. Furthermore, our analyses demonstrated that effects of eutrophication on light conditions, as indicated by surface water total nitrogen, were on average at least as important as sediment conditions. This suggests that in general, eutrophication might be the most important factor controlling seagrasses in sheltered estuaries, while the seagrass-sediment-light feedback is a dominant mechanism in more exposed areas. Our study demonstrates the potentials of SEM to identify and quantify positive feedbacks mechanisms for ecosystems and other complex systems

Employment Services Utilization and Outcomes among Substance Abusing Offenders Participating in California’s Proposition 36 Drug Treatment Initiative

California drug treatment programs may use funds to address barriers to work faced by Proposition 36 offenders, most of whom are not working at treatment entry, but employment services utilization and related behavioral outcomes have never been studied. This study examined primary data collected on 1,453 offenders by 30 programs during 2004 to explore the characteristics, employment services utilization, and outcomes of those who did and did not receive employment services while in drug treatment. One-year outcomes were mostly similar across groups, however, increases in the proportion of offenders employed, receiving income from employment and family or friends, and being paid for work were significantly greater among the received-employment-services group, and a greater proportion of this group also completed drug treatment. Employment services utilization was less likely for persons recruited from outpatient settings and more likely with greater severity of family/social problems and desire for services. Odds of employment one-year post-treatment entry were higher for those of Hispanic race/ethnicity (vs. White) and for those with treatment completion/longer retention but lower for those who were older, lived in specific counties, had greater employment problem severity at intake, and received other income-related services. Strategies for improving employment services utilization and outcomes among Proposition 36 offenders are discussed