The efficiency of individual optimization in the conditions of competitive growth

The paper aims to discuss statistical properties of the multi-agent based model of competitive growth. Each of the agents is described by growth (or decay) rule of its virtual "mass" with the rate affected by the interaction with other agents. The interaction depends on the strategy vector and mutual distance between agents and both are subjected to the agent's individual optimization process. Steady-state simulations yield phase diagrams with the high and low competition phases (HCP and LCP, respectively) separated by critical point. Particular focus has been made on the indicators of the power-law behavior of the mass distributions with respect to the critical regime. In this regime the study has revealed remarkable anomaly in the optimization efficiency

Predicting future stability of ecosystem functioning under climate change

To maintain food security under global change, we need to consider the stability of ecosystem functioning into the future, particularly in resource production landscapes such as agricultural pasture. With ongoing climate change, extreme climatic events are predicted to become more frequent and severe globally, impacting crop production. The whole process of farming will become more uncertain, from choice of crop and crop productivity to the timing of the windows of opportunity for management decisions. Future agricultural policies, therefore, should not only consider changes in grassland production, but also its future stability. We use a case study of agricultural pastures on the island of Ireland to project different components of ecosystem stability (resistance, recovery time and recovery rate) to 2050 and 2080 under different future climate scenarios: a peak and decline scenario; and a continued emissions scenario. We show that future climate change will have substantial effects on both the future resistance and the recovery of ecosystem functioning following environmental disturbances, but the spatial pattern of effect sizes is not the same for these two measures of stability. National level analyses and agricultural policies, therefore, are likely to ignore regional variation in future change. From this, we encourage the translation of stability-based constructs, as well as maximum yield considerations, into future agricultural policy at the regional level

Methods and approaches to advance soil macroecology

Motivation and aim Soil biodiversity is central to ecosystem function and services. It represents most of terrestrial biodiversity and at least a quarter of all biodiversity on Earth. Yet, research into broad, generalizable spatial and temporal patterns of soil biota has been limited compared to aboveground systems due to complexities of the soil system. We review the literature and identify key considerations necessary to expand soil macroecology beyond the recent surge of global maps of soil taxa, so that we can gain greater insight into the mechanisms and processes shaping soil biodiversity. We focus primarily on three groups of soil taxa (earthworms, mycorrhizal fungi and soil bacteria) that represent a range of body sizes and ecologies, and, therefore, interact with their environment at different spatial scales. Results The complexities of soil, including fine-scale heterogeneity, 3-D habitat structure, difficulties with taxonomic delimitation, and the wide-ranging ecologies of its inhabitants, require the classical macroecological toolbox to be expanded to consider novel sampling, molecular identification, functional approaches, environmental variables, and modelling techniques. Main conclusions Soil provides a complex system within which to apply macroecological research, yet, it is this property that itself makes soil macroecology a field ripe for innovative methodologies and approaches. To achieve this, soil-specific data, spatio-temporal, biotic, and abiotic considerations are necessary at all stages of research, from sampling design to statistical analyses. Insights into whole ecosystems and new approaches to link genes, functions and diversity across spatial and temporal scales, alongside methodologies already applied in aboveground macroecology, invasion ecology and aquatic ecology, will facilitate the investigation of macroecological processes in soil biota, which is key to understanding the link between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in terrestrial ecosystems

Ecosystem stability at the landscape scale is primarily associated with climatic history

There is an increasing interest in landscape-scale perspectives of ecosystem functioning to inform policy and conservation decisions. However, we need a better understanding of the stability of ecosystem functioning (e.g. plant productivity) at the landscape scale to inform policy around topics such as global food security. We investigate the role of the ecological and environmental context on landscape-scale stability of plant productivity in agricultural pasture using remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index data. We determine whether four measures of stability (variability, magnitude of extreme anomalies, recovery time and recovery rate) are predicted by (a) species richness of vascular plants, (b) regional land cover heterogeneity and (c) climatic history. Stability of plant productivity was primarily associated with climatic history, particularly a history of extreme events. These effects outweighed any positive effects of species richness in the agricultural landscape. A history of variable and extreme climates both increased and decreased contemporary ecosystem stability, suggesting both cumulative and legacy effects, whereas land cover heterogeneity had no effect on stability. The landscape scale is a relevant spatial scale for the management of an ecosystem's stability. At this scale, we find that past climate is a stronger driver of stability in plant productivity than species richness, differing from results at finer field scales. Management should take an integrated approach by incorporating the environmental context of the landscape, such as its climatic history, and consider multiple components of stability to maintain functioning in landscapes that are particularly vulnerable to environmental change

Recent Widespread Tree Growth Decline Despite Increasing Atmospheric CO2

Background: The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9u latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53 % increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment – BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Conclusions: Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due t

Invaders in hot water: a simple decontamination method to prevent the accidental spread of aquatic invasive non-native species.

Watersports equipment can act as a vector for the introduction and spread of invasive non native species (INNS) in freshwater environments. To support advice given to recreational water users under the UK Government’s Check Clean Dry biosecurity campaign and ensure its effectiveness at killing a range of aquatic INNS, we conducted a survival experiment on seven INNS which pose a high risk to UK freshwaters. The efficacy of exposure to hot water (45 °C, 15 min) was tested as a method by which waters users could ‘clean’ their equipment and was compared to drying and a control group (no treatment). Hot water had caused 99 % mortality across all species 1 h after treatment and was more effective than drying at all time points (1 h: χ2 = 117.24, p < 0.001; 1 day χ2 = 95.68, p < 0.001; 8 days χ2 = 12.16, p < 0.001 and 16 days χ2 = 7.58, p < 0.001). Drying caused significantly higher mortality than the control (no action) from day 4 (χ2 = 8.49, p < 0.01) onwards. In the absence of hot water or drying, 6/7 of these species survived for 16 days, highlighting the importance of good biosecurity practice to reduce the risk of accidental spread. In an additional experiment the minimum lethal temperature and exposure time in hot water to cause 100 % mortality in American signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus), was determined to be 5 min at 40 °C. Hot water provides a simple, rapid and effective method to clean equipment. We recommend that it is advocated in future biosecurity awareness campaigns

Biosecurity and Vector Behaviour: Evaluating the Potential Threat Posed by Anglers and Canoeists as Pathways for the Spread of Invasive Non-Native Species and Pathogens

Invasive non-native species (INNS) endanger native biodiversity and are a major economic problem. The management of pathways to prevent their introduction and establishment is a key target in the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi biodiversity targets for 2020. Freshwater environments are particularly susceptible to invasions as they are exposed to multiple introduction pathways, including non-native fish stocking and the release of boat ballast water. Since many freshwater INNS and aquatic pathogens can survive for several days in damp environments, there is potential for transport between water catchments on the equipment used by recreational anglers and canoeists. To quantify this biosecurity risk, we conducted an online questionnaire with 960 anglers and 599 canoeists to investigate their locations of activity, equipment used, and how frequently equipment was cleaned and/or dried after use. Anglers were also asked about their use and disposal of live bait. Our results indicate that 64% of anglers and 78.5% of canoeists use their equipment/boat in more than one catchment within a fortnight, the survival time of many of the INNS and pathogens considered in this study and that 12% of anglers and 50% of canoeists do so without either cleaning or drying their kit between uses. Furthermore, 8% of anglers and 28% of canoeists had used their equipment overseas without cleaning or drying it after each use which could facilitate both the introduction and secondary spread of INNS in the UK. Our results provide a baseline against which to evaluate the effectiveness of future biosecurity awareness campaigns, and identify groups to target with biosecurity awareness information. Our results also indicate that the biosecurity practices of these groups must improve to reduce the likelihood of inadvertently spreading INNS and pathogens through these activities

A Landscape Approach to Invasive Species Management

Biological invasions are not only a major threat to biodiversity, they also have major impacts on local economies and agricultural production systems. Once established, the connection of local populations into metapopulation networks facilitates dispersal at landscape scales, generating spatial dynamics that can impact the outcome of pest-management actions. Much planning goes into landscape-scale invasive species management. However, effective management requires knowledge on the interplay between metapopulation network topology and management actions. We address this knowledge gap using simulation models to explore the effectiveness of two common management strategies, applied across different extents and according to different rules for selecting target localities in metapopulations with different network topologies. These management actions are: (i) general population reduction, and (ii) reduction of an obligate resource. The reduction of an obligate resource was generally more efficient than population reduction for depleting populations at landscape scales. However, the way in which local populations are selected for management is important when the topology of the metapopulation is heterogeneous in terms of the distribution of connections among local populations. We tested these broad findings using real-world scenarios of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) infesting agricultural landscapes in Western Australia. Although management strategies targeting central populations were more effective in simulated heterogeneous metapopulation structures, no difference was observed in real-world metapopulation structures that are highly homogeneous. In large metapopulations with high proximity and connectivity of neighbouring populations, different spatial management strategies yield similar outcomes. Directly considering spatial attributes in pest-management actions will be most important for metapopulation networks with heterogeneously distributed links. Our modelling framework provides a simple approach for identifying the best possible management strategy for invasive species based on metapopulation structure and control capacity. This information can be used by managers trying to devise efficient landscape-oriented management strategies for invasive species and can also generate insights for conservation purposes.Miguel Lurgi, Konstans Wells, Malcolm Kennedy, Susan Campbell, Damien A. Fordha