Evaluation and learning in public housing urban renewal

This report analyses how evaluation and learning from public housing renewal is informing policy development and delivery to maximise financial returns and socio-economic outcomes. The research was conducted pre-COVID-19. • Public housing renewal provides an opportunity for policy makers to give direction to urban reconfiguration processes. Since the 2000s public housing renewal has increasingly become part of a policy discourse that places emphasis on 'unlocking' under-utilised sites (i.e. public housing estates) for jobs, investment and urban renewal. In this intersection with urban renewal processes, mixed-tenure public housing renewal, in practice, becomes public housing urban renewal. • This research highlights a consistency of views across stakeholders (often on pragmatic grounds) regarding 'how public housing renewal works'. It is thus possible to conceptualise learning and evaluation in public housing renewal policy-making within an advocacy coalition framework (ACF). • An ACF framework focuses on the alignment of the beliefs, actions and interest of a range of stakeholders with respect to how policies work, or can work. Our use of the ACF is grounded in a consistency of views about 'how public housing renewal works', given the prevailing institutional and financial constraints, and the implication of this for the role of evaluation and learning, rather than any suggestion of a formal or informal actual coalition, or collusion, in agenda setting or public policy objectives. • Interviewees perceived evaluation to be one of several integral parts to the policy formation process. However, evaluations have frequently been summative, rather than formative in nature. In addition, stakeholders also relied on personal and institutional experience to inform policy development and decision-making. These learning dynamics have, over time, reinforced key aspects of the policy core belief within the advocacy coalition. • The policy core belief guiding public housing urban renewal is characterised by a shared belief in the instrumental role of land values and land value change as a means of reconciling multiple asset- and people-based outcomes, while controlling the cost of public policy to public budgets. Mixed tenure, housing density and the strategic leveraging of land are policies that also extract land value for public housing reinvestment and other public policy goals. • The central role of land and land value has raised concerns amongst tenants, groups external to the advocacy coalition, but also some of the interviewees that public housing renewal is increasingly driven by asset-based viability considerations and reduced government exposure to risk. While risk related to physical reconfiguration (public housing stock renewal) in this respect is reduced, other objectives (such as wider social and economic benefits for tenants) increasingly become shaped by - rather than shaping urban reconfiguration processes. • Core members of the public housing renewal advocacy coalition are state governments and private developers. Additional members are (in some cases) community housing providers (CHPs) and local governments. Policy formation within advocacy coalitions is shaped by multiple factors. This includes evaluations, but also reacting to external events and internal stakeholder dynamics. • In the contextual analysis in this research, change in relative income is used as an indicator of social and economic reconfiguration. Apart from Adelaide, census collection districts (CCD) subject to public housing renewal experienced little improvement in relative income status (1996-2016). • Citywide drivers (such as economic restructuring, urban sprawl containment, population growth) and neighbourhood drivers (such as economic obsolescence, relative incomes) are specific drivers of social and economic reconfiguration. These are evident in all three capital cities, leading to the potential to 'unlock' value through mixed tenure and public housing renewal. • Policy options exist that can unlock more inclusive conceptualisations of value, and shift the reliance on land value in the program logic of public housing renewal. The design of public housing renewal tenders, and strategies for implementation, offer considerable opportunity for policy experimentation; identification and evaluation of assumed causal relationships and benefits. A social infrastructure perspective provides a framework for 'unlocking' additional and renewal project-specific values. A number of tools already exist to estimate the (equivalent) monetary value of wider social and economic benefits

The economic impacts of ocean acidification on shellfish fisheries and aquaculture in the United Kingdom

Ocean acidification may pose a major threat to commercial fisheries, especially those for calcifying shellfish species. This study was undertaken to estimate the potential economic costs resulting from ocean acidification on UK wild capture and aquaculture shellfish production. Applying the net present value (NPV) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, we estimate both direct and economy-wide economic losses of shellfish production by 2100. Estimates using the NPV method show that the direct potential losses due to reduced shellfish production range from 14% to 28% of fishery NPV. This equates to annual economic losses of between o3 and o6 billion of the UK's GDP in 2013, for medium and high emission scenarios. Results using the PE model showed the total loss to the UK economy from shellfish production and consumption ranging from o23-o88 million. The results from both the direct valuation and predicted estimate for the economic losses on shellfish harvest indicate that there are regional variations due to different patterns of shellfish wild-capture and aquaculture, and the exploitation of species with differing sensitivities to ocean acidification. These results suggest that the potential economic losses vary depending on the chosen valuation method. This analysis is also partial as it did not include a wider group of species in early-life-stages or predator-prey effects. Nevertheless, findings show that the economic losses to the UK and its devolved administrations due to ocean acidification could be substantial. We conclude that addressing ocean acidification with the aim of preserving commercially valuable shellfish resources will require regional, national or international solutions using a combined approach to reduce atmospheric CO2 emissions and shift in focus to exploit species that are less vulnerable to ocean acidification

Quantifying spatio-temporal consistency in the trophic ecology of two sympatric flatfishes

Sympatric flatfish predators may partition their resources in coastal environments to reduce competition and maximise foraging efficiency. However, the degree of spatial and temporal consistency in their trophic ecology is not well understood because dietary studies tend to overlook the heterogeneity of consumed prey. Increasing the spatial and temporal scale of dietary analyses can thus help to resolve predator resource use. We applied a stomach content and multi-tissue (liver and muscle) stable isotope (δ13C, δ15N and δ34S) approach to investigate the feeding habits of two co-occurring flatfish predators, common dab (Limanda limanda) and European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), across four bays on the Northumberland coast (UK) over short (hours), medium (days) and long (months) temporal scales. Stomach content analyses showed spatial consistencies in predator resource use, whereas stable isotope mixing models revealed considerable inter-bay diet variability. Stomach contents also indicated high dietary overlap between L. limanda and P. platessa, while the stable isotope data yielded low to moderate levels of overlap, with cases of complete niche separation. Furthermore, individual specialisation metrics indicated consistently low levels of specialisation among conspecifics over time. We document changes in resource partitioning in space and time, reflecting diet switching in response to local and temporal fluctuations of patchily distributed prey. This study highlights how trophic tracers integrated at multiple temporal and spatial scales (within tens of kilometres) provide a more integrative approach for assessing the trophic ecology of sympatric predators in dynamic environments

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Repositioning Ourselves: acknowledging contradiction

The essence of this paper is to present a self-study that resulted in the awareness of discrepancies that existed between our beliefs and practices as teacher educators and educational researchers. On the one hand, we assessed the impact of our teaching on participants of a professional development program. We analyzed the participants’ abilities to explore student voices as input for improving the teaching of mathematics. On the other hand, as we categorized and characterized our participants’ reflections using the tools of qualitative inquiry, the end effect was to distort and even silence those voices as an input for improving our own instruction, denying participants both agency and identity. This presented us with a living contradiction since this stance conflicted with our belief that learners deserve both agency and identity. &#160

Narrative inquiry into (re)imagining alternative schools: a case study of Kevin Gonzales.

Although there are many alternative schools that strive for the successful education for their students, negative images of alternative schools persist. While some alternative schools are viewed as “idealistic havens,” many are viewed as “dumping grounds,” or “juvenile detention centers.” Employing narrative inquiry, this article interrogates how a student, Kevin Gonzales, experiences his alternative education and raises questions about the role of alternative schools. Kevin Gonzales’s story is presented in a literary form of biographical journal to provide a “metaphoric loft” that helps us imagine other students like Kevin. This, in turn, provokes us to examine our current educational practice, and to (re)imagine ways in which alternative education can provide the best possible educational experiences for disenfranchised students who are increasingly underserved by the public education system

Marine climate change risks to biodiversity and society in the ROPME Sea Area

The subtropical ROPME Sea Area (RSA), comprising the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the northern Arabian Sea, is a heavily exploited sea region that experiences extreme environmental conditions, and for which climate change is expected to further impact marine ecosystems and coastal communities, sectors and industries. Climate change risk assessments provide a valuable tool to inform decision-making and adaptation planning through identifying and prioritising climate risks and/or opportunities. Using the first UK Climate Change Risk Assessment as an example, a marine climate change risk assessment was undertaken for the marine and coastal environment of the RSA for the first time. Through an extensive literature review and a workshop involving regional experts, marine and coastal climate change risks were identified, scored and prioritised. A total of 45 risks were identified, which spanned two key themes: ‘Risks to Biodiversity’ and ‘Risks to Economy and Society’. Of these, 13 were categorised as ‘severe’, including degradation of coral reefs and their associated ecological assemblages, shifts in the distribution of wild-capture fisheries resources, changes to phytoplankton primary productivity, impacts on coastal communities, threats to infrastructure and industries, and impacts on operations and safety in maritime transport. The diversity of risks identified and their transboundary nature highlight that climate change adaptation responses will require coordinated action and cooperation at multiple scales across the RSA. This risk assessment provides a crucial baseline for a largely overlooked geographic area, that can be used to underpin future decision-making and adaptation planning on climate change, and serve as a ‘blueprint’ for similar assessments for other regional shared seas

Non-lethal sampling for stable isotope analysis of pike Esox lucius: how mucus, scale and fin tissue compare to muscle.

Stable isotope analysis (SIA) was used to examine the isotopic relationships between dorsal muscle and fin, scale and epidermal mucus in pike Esox lucius. δ13 C and δ15 N varied predictably within each tissue pairing, with conversion factors calculated for the surrogate tissues, enabling their application to the non-lethal sampling of E. lucius for SIA. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Considerations for management strategy evaluation for small pelagic fishes

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is the state-of-the-art approach for testing and comparing management strategies in a way that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty (e.g. monitoring, estimation, and implementation). Management strategy evaluation can help identify management strategies that are robust to uncertainty about the life history of the target species and its relationship to other species in the food web. Small pelagic fish (e.g. anchovy, herring and sardine) fulfil an important ecological role in marine food webs and present challenges to the use of MSE and other simulation-based evaluation approaches. This is due to considerable stochastic variation in their ecology and life history, which leads to substantial observation and process uncertainty. Here, we summarize the current state of MSE for small pelagic fishes worldwide. We leverage expert input from ecologists and modellers to draw attention to sources of process and observation uncertainty for small pelagic species, providing examples from geographical regions where these species are ecologically, economically and culturally important. Temporal variation in recruitment and other life-history rates, spatial structure and movement, and species interactions are key considerations for small pelagic fishes. We discuss tools for building these into the MSE process, with examples from existing fisheries. We argue that model complexity should be informed by management priorities and whether ecosystem information will be used to generate dynamics or to inform reference points. We recommend that our list of considerations be used in the initial phases of the MSE process for small pelagic fishes or to build complexity on existing single-species models.publishedVersio