Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study

This study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B extends method A by two innovative ways, which are restricting the search for analogues with temperature information instead of the common season criterion, and exploiting the information about vertical motion considering vertical velocity. Forecasts are evaluated in a perfect prognosis context and in operational conditions as well, by mean of verification measures (Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and scores computed from contingency tables). Results of the case study in France show that: (1) there is an increase in forecast skill when temperature and vertical velocity are included in the procedure, (2) it is possible to anticipate rainfall events up to one week ahead and (3) the introduction of new variables such as vertical velocity may be useless beyond few days ahead if the forecast of the weather model is not reliable

La prévision des précipitations par recherche d'analogues : état de l'art et perspectives

La prévision des précipitations par analogie, adaptée des sorties de modèles numériques de prévision, s'est améliorée ces dix dernières années et est actuellement implémentée opérationnellement dans diverses infrastructures françaises. Le premier objectif de cette étude est de dresser l'état de l'art de cette approche. L'application de cette méthode nécessite une base de données contenant les champs des variables qui permettent de caractériser les situations météorologiques passées. Etant donné qu'il existe deux archives de génération différente (réanalyses ERA-40 et NCEP/NCAR), la sensibilité de cette méthode de prévision au choix de l'archive a été étudiée. Les résultats révèlent une faible sensibilité, même si de manière générale les performances sont légèrement supérieures avec l'archive ERA-40, notamment pour les événements pluvieux extrêmes. Enfin, des perspectives d'amélioration de la méthode susceptibles d'être exploitées à court terme sont évoquées. / Precipitation forecasting based on an adaptation of model outputs through an analog sorting technique has been improved for around ten years. The method runs operationally in several French institutions. First, this short paper presents the state of the art of this approach and the more recent developments. Second, a sensitivity analysis to the choice of the database from which the variables that characterise the past meteorological situations are extracted is performed. Two available archives are tested (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses). The results show that despite the performances obtained with the ERA-40 database are slightly better, especially for heavy rainfall events, the sensitivity is weak. Finally, further ways for improvement that could be investigated are suggested

GenoChemetic strategy for derivatization of the violacein natural product scaffold

H.E.L. was supported by an Imperial College President’s Ph.D. Scholarship. We thank UKRI EPSRC (EP/K038648/1, EP/L011573/1 to P.S.F.) and the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013/ERC grant agreement no. 614779 GenoChemetics to R.J.M.G.) for funding. A.M.C.O. receives funding from EPSRC CRITICAT, EP/L016419/1.Natural products and their analogues are often challenging to synthesize due to their complex scaffolds and embedded functional groups. Solely relying on engineering the biosynthesis of natural products may lead to limited compound diversity. Integrating synthetic biology with synthetic chemistry allows rapid access to much more diverse portfolios of xenobiotic compounds, which may accelerate the discovery of new therapeutics. As a proof-of-concept, by supplementing an Escherichia coli strain expressing the violacein biosynthesis pathway with 5-bromo-tryptophan in vitro or tryptophan 7-halogenase RebH in vivo, six halogenated analogues of violacein or deoxyviolacein were generated, demonstrating the promiscuity of the violacein biosynthesis pathway. Furthermore, 20 new derivatives were generated from 5-brominated violacein analogues via the Suzuki–Miyaura cross-coupling reaction directly using the crude extract without prior purification. Herein we demonstrate a flexible and rapid approach to access a diverse chemical space that can be applied to a wide range of natural product scaffolds.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain

Model Output Statistics (MOS) has been recently proposed as an alternative to the standard perfect prognosis statistical downscaling approach for Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs. In this case, the model output for the variable of interest (e.g. precipitation) is directly downscaled using observations. In this paper we test the performance of a MOS implementation of the popular analog methodology (referred to as MOS analog) applied to downscale daily precipitation outputs over Spain. To this aim, we consider the state‐of‐the‐art ERA40‐driven RCMs provided by the EU‐funded ENSEMBLES project and the Spain02 gridded observations data set, using the common period 1961–2000. The MOS analog method improves the representation of the mean regimes, the annual cycle, the frequency and the extremes of precipitation for all RCMs, regardless of the region and the model reliability (including relatively low‐performing models), while preserving the daily accuracy. The good performance of the method in this complex climatic region suggests its potential transferability to other regions. Furthermore, in order to test the robustness of the method in changing climate conditions, a cross‐validation in driest or wettest years was performed. The method improves the RCM results in both cases, especially in the former