Comparison of three downscaling methods in simulating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

International audienceStudies of the impact of climate change on water resources usually follow a top to bottom approach: a scenario of emissions is used to run a GCM simulation, which is downscaled (RCM and/or stastistical methods) and bias-corrected. Then, this data is used to force a hydrological model. Seldom, impact studies take into account all relevant uncertainties. In fact, many published studies only use one climate model and one downscaling technique. In this study, the outputs of an atmosphere-ocean regional climate model are downscaled and bias-corrected using three different techniques: a statistical method based on weather regimes, a quantile-mapping method and the method of the anomaly. The resulting data are used to force a distributed hydrological model to simulate the French Mediterranean basins. These are characterized by water scarcity and an increasing human pressure, which cause a demand in assessments on the impact of climate change hydrological systems. The purpose of the study is mainly methodological: the evaluation of the uncertainty related to the downscaling and bias-correction step. The periods chosen to compare the changes are the end of the 20th century (1970-2000) and the middle of the 21st century (2035-2065). The study shows that the three methods produce similar anomalies of the mean annual precipitation, but there are important differences, mainly in terms of spatial patterns. The study also shows that there are important differences in the anomalies of temperature. These uncertainties are amplified by the hydrological model. In some basins, the simulations do not agree in the sign of the anomalies and, in many others, the differences in amplitude of the anomaly are very important. Therefore, the uncertainty related to the downscaling and bias-correction of the climate simulation must be taken into account in order to better estimate the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a specific basin. The study also shows that according to the RCM simulation used and to the periods studied, there might be significant increases of winter precipitation on the Cévennes region of the Massif Central, which is already affected by flash floods, and significant decreases of summer precipitation in most of the region. This will cause a decrease in the average discharge in the middle of the 21st in most of the gauging stations studied, specially in summer. Winter and, maybe spring, in some areas, are the exception, as discharge may increase in some basins

Validation of a new SAFRAN-based gridded precipitation product for Spain and comparisons to Spain02 and ERA-Interim

Offline Land-Surface Model (LSM) simulations are useful for studying the continental hydrological cycle. Because of the nonlinearities in the models, the results are very sensitive to the quality of the meteorological forcing; thus, high-quality gridded datasets of screen-level meteorological variables are needed. Precipitation datasets are particularly difficult to produce due to the inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of that variable. They do, however, have a large impact on the simulations, and it is thus necessary to carefully evaluate their quality in great detail. This paper reports the quality of two high-resolution precipitation datasets for Spain at the daily time scale: the new SAFRAN-based dataset and Spain02. SAFRAN is a meteorological analysis system that was designed to force LSMs and has recently been extended to the entirety of Spain for a long period of time (1979/80-2013/14). Spain02 is a daily precipitation dataset for Spain and was created mainly to validate Regional Climate Models. In addition, ERA-Interim is included in the comparison to show the differences between local high-resolution and global low-resolution products. The study compares the different precipitation analyses with rain gauge data and assesses their temporal and spatial similarities to the observations. The validation of SAFRAN with independent data shows that this is a robust product. SAFRAN and Spain02 have very similar scores, although the later slightly surpasses the former. The scores are robust with altitude and throughout the year, save perhaps in summer, when a diminished skill is observed. As expected, SAFRAN and Spain02 perform better than ERA-Interim, which has difficulty capturing the effects of the relief on precipitation due to its low resolution. However, ERA-Interim reproduces spells remarkably well, in contrast to the low skill shown by the high-resolution products. The high-resolution gridded products overestimate the number of precipitation days, which is a problem that affects SAFRAN more than Spain02 and is likely caused by the interpolation method. Both SAFRAN and Spain02 underestimate high precipitation events, but SAFRAN does so more than Spain02. The overestimation of low precipitation events and the underestimation of intense episodes will probably have hydrological consequences once the data are used to force a land surface or hydrological model.We are grateful to the French National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM UMR3539, Météo-France CNRS) for allowing us to use the code of the SAFRAN analysis system for our studies, the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for sharing their very valuable observational data with us and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for making their ERA-Interim product openly available. This is a contribution to the FP7 eartH2Observe project (http://www.earth2observer.eu), which received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 603608. This work has been funded by the Spanish Economy and Competitiveness Ministry and the European Regional Development Fund through grant CGL2013-47261-R. This work has been supported by the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona Project (no. 308321; flood evolution in the metropolitan area of Barcelona from a holistic perspective: past, present and future) and the Spanish Project HOPE (CGL2014-52571-R) supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. This work is a contribution to the HyMeX program (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment; http://www.hymex.org)

The Utility of Land-Surface Model Simulations to Provide Drought Information in a Water Management Context Using Global and Local Forcing Datasets

Drought diagnosis and forecasting are fundamental issues regarding hydrological management in Spain, where recurrent water scarcity periods are normal. Land-surface models (LSMs) could provide relevant information for water managers on how drought conditions evolve. Here, we explore the usefulness of LSMs driven by atmospheric analyses with different resolutions and accuracies in simulating drought and its propagation to precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow through the system. We perform simulations for the 1980-2014 period with SASER (5 km resolution) and LEAFHYDRO (2.5 km resolution), which are forced by the Spanish SAFRAN dataset (at 5km and 30km resolutions), and the global eartH2Observe datasets at 0.25 degrees (including the MSWEP precipitation dataset). We produce standardized indices for precipitation (SPI), soil moisture (SSMI) and streamflow (SSI). The results show that the model structure uncertainty remains an important issue in current generation large-scale hydrological simulations based on LSMs. This is true for both the SSMI and SSI. The differences between the simulated SSMI and SSI are large, and the propagation scales for drought regarding both soil moisture and streamflow are overly dependent on the model structure. Forcing datasets have an impact on the uncertainty of the results but, in general, this impact is not as large as the uncertainty due to model formulation. Concerning the global products, the precipitation product that includes satellite observations (MSWEP) represents a large improvement compared with the product that does notThis is a contribution to the EU-FP7 eartH2Observe project, which received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 603608. This work has been partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities and the European Regional Development Fund through grants CGL2013-47261-R and CGL2017-85687-R. This work is a contribution to the HyMeX program (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment; http://www.hymex.org)S

Use of bias correction techniques to improve seasonal forecasts for reservoirs - A case-study in northwestern Mediterranean

In this paper, we have compared different bias correction methodologies to assess whether they could be advantageous for improving the performance of a seasonal prediction model for volume anomalies in the Boadella reservoir (northwestern Mediterranean). The bias correction adjustments have been applied on precipitation and temperature from the European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecasting System 4 (S4). We have used three bias correction strategies: two linear (mean bias correction, BC, and linear regression, LR) and one non-linear (Model Output Statistics analogs, MOS-analog). The results have been compared with climatology and persistence. The volume-anomaly model is a previously computed Multiple Linear Regression that ingests precipitation, temperature and in-flow anomaly data to simulate monthly volume anomalies. The potential utility for end-users has been assessed using economic value curve areas. We have studied the S4 hindcast period 1981-2010 for each month of the year and up to seven months ahead considering an ensemble of 15 members. We have shown that the MOS-analog and LR bias corrections can improve the original S4. The application to volume anomalies points towards the possibility to introduce bias correction methods as a tool to improve water resource seasonal forecasts in an end-user context of climate services. Particularly, the MOS-analog approach gives generally better results than the other approaches in late autumn and early winter

High-Resolution SMAP-Derived Root-Zone Soil Moisture Using an Exponential Filter Model Calibrated per Land Cover Type

Root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) plays a key role for most water and energy budgets, as it is particularly relevant in controlling plant transpiration and hydraulic redistribution. RZSM data is needed for a variety of different applications, such as forecasting crop yields, improving flood predictions and monitoring agricultural drought, among others. Remote sensing provides surface soil moisture (SSM) retrievals, whose key advantage is the large spatial coverage on a systematic basis. This study tests a simple method to retrieve RZSM estimates from high-resolution SSM derived from SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive). A recursive exponential filter using a time constant τ is calibrated per land cover type, which uses as an intermediate step a long-term ISBA-DIF (Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere—Diffusion scheme) dataset over an area located in Catalonia, NE of Spain. The τ values thus obtained are then used as an input to the same recursive exponential filter, to derive 1 km resolution RZSM estimates from 1 km SMAP SSM, which are obtained from the original data by downscaling to a 1 km resolution, through the DISPATCH (DISaggregation based on a Physical and Theoretical scale CHange) methodology. The results are then validated with scaled in situ observations at different depths, over two different areas, one representative of rainfed crops, and the other of irrigated crops. In general, the estimates agree well with the observations over the rainfed crops, especially at a 10 cm and 25 cm depth. Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) scores ranging between 0.33 and 0.58, and between 0.37 and 0.56 have been found, respectively. Correlation coefficients for these depths are high, between 0.76 and 0.91 (10 cm), and between 0.71 and 0.90 (25 cm). For the irrigated sites, results are poorer (partly due to the extremely high heterogeneity present), with NS scores ranging between −2.57 and 0.16, and correlations ranging between −0.56 and 0.48 at 25 cm. Given the strong correlations and NS scores found in the surface, the sensitivity of the filter to different τ values was investigated. For the rainfed site, it was found, as expected, with increasing τ, increasing NS and correlations with the deeper layers, suggesting a better coupling. Nevertheless, a strong correlation with the surface (5 cm) or shallower depths (10 cm) observed over certain sites indicates a certain lack of skill of the filter to represent processes which occur at lower levels in the SM column. All in all, a calibration accounting for the vegetation was shown to be an adequate methodology in applying the recursive exponential filter to derive the RZSM estimates over large areas. Nevertheless, the relative shallow surface at which the estimates correlate in some cases seem to indicate that an effect of evapotranspiration in the profile is not well captured by the filter.This research was funded by the Torrres Quevedo program of the Spanish Science Ministry, MICINN (grant number PTQ-16-08766)

Grief Experiences in Family Caregivers of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD)

The main objective of this study was to analyse the experience of grief and feelings of loss in family caregivers of children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), as well as the perceived overload from taking on the primary caregiver role. Twenty family caregivers of children with ASD participated. The family members were assessed using an ad-hoc semi-structured interview that addressed the families' reactions to the diagnosis, implications for daily functioning, and concerns for the immediate and long-term future of their relatives with ASD. The results indicate that family caregivers of children with ASD endure intense and continuous sorrow and grief due to the impact that having and caring for a child with these characteristics has on all aspects of their lives. These data highlight the importance of creating support and intervention programmes and services focused on the feelings and manifestations of ambiguous grief that occur in these family members, in order to improve their well-being and quality of life and reduce caregiver role overload

Changes in meteo-hydrological extremes in Spain at different levels of global warming

Ponencia presentada en: XI Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Cartagena entre el 17 y el 19 de octubre de 2018.This work assesses changes in the extremes of precipitation and streamflow in Spain assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. We consider an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations spanning the period 1970-2099 to evaluate precipitation changes and to drive a distributed hydrological model and thus to derive streamflow statistics under present and future climates. The climate simulations were performed under the umbrella of the EURO-CORDEX project, thus covering Europe with a spatial resolution of 0.11 degree both in latitude and longitude, the finest so far in this type of climatological multimodel and multi-scenario experiments. Preliminary results suggest that constraining global warming well below 2°C, as sought in the Paris Agreement, reduces the probability of increasing drought related indices.This work has been supported by the Spanish Projects HOPE (CGL2014-52571-R) and M-CostAdapt (CTM2017-83655-C2-2-R) of the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, as well as the EFA 210/216 PIRAGUA project financed by the INTERREG V A (POCTEFA) and FEDER

Flash flood evolution in North-Western Mediterranean

The present paper shows an in-depth analysis of the evolution of floods and precipitation in Catalonia for the period 1981-2010. In order to have homogeneous information, and having in mind that not gauge data was available for all the events, neither for all the rivers and stream flows, daily press from a specific newspaper has been systematically analysed for this period. Furthermore a comparison with a longer period starting in 1900 has been done. 219 flood events (mainly flash flood events) have been identified for the period of 30 years (375 starting in 1900), 79 of them were ordinary, 117 of them were extraordinary and 23 of them were catastrophic, being autumn and summer the seasons with the maxima values. 19% of the events caused a total of 110 casualties. 60% of them died when they tried to cross the street or the stream. Factors like the evolution of precipitation, population density and other socio-economical aspects have been considered. The trend analysis shows an increase of 1 flood/decade that probably has been mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density and in land-use and land-cover

Validation of the SAFRAN meteorological analysis system in the Northeast of Spain

Póster elaborado para la European Geosciences Union General Assembly celebrada los días 22-27 de abril de 2012 en Vien

Urbanismo desde el paisaje

El taller de proyectos de urbanismo y paisaje, una experiencia docente en la ETS de Arquitectura En este libro se recoge una selección de trabajos realizados por estudiantes de arquitectura en la asignatura Urbanística 3, que pertenece al cuarto curso de los estudios del Grado en Fundamentos de la Arquitectura, titulación impartida en la Universidad Politécnica de Valencia. En el Taller de Urbanismo, grupo docente al que pertenecen los autores de este libro, los contenidos de la asignatura Urbanística 3 se estructuran en dos grandes bloques temáticos, que se desarrollan en el primero y segundo semestre respectivamente. El primer bloque es de introducción al planeamiento urbano y territorial, y en el segundo se abordan los proyectos de obra civil, urbanización, jardinería y paisaje. Expondremos a continuación los contenidos teóricos y prácticos asociados a cada uno de estos dos bloques.Pérez Igualada, J.; Casañ Llopis, VJ.; Quintana Seguí, E.; Díez Torrijos, I. (2023). Urbanismo desde el paisaje. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/19444