Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab

Background: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Methods: Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. Results: The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5–6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5–10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8–16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3–8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3–14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6–24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591–0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636–0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index=0.583; P=0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index=0.611; P=0.03351). Conclusions: We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design

Shrike predation on the lizard Mesalina adramitana in Qatar; a review of reported reptile and amphibian prey

We report, for the first time, evidence of predation by a shrike (Lanius sp.) on the lizard Mesalina adramitana. This is the first record of predation by shrikes on lizards in Qatar. Whilst we did not directly observe the event, the presence of shrikes in the area and the method of impalement indicate shrikes as the predator. The lizard was found freshly impaled on a palm tree (Phoenix dactylifera), at 150 cm above ground. Bird species of the genus Lanius are well-known predators of lizards, and in arid environments reptiles are likely common prey for these birds. We provide a review of literature concerning predatory events by shrikes on reptiles and amphibians. We suggest inspection of shrubs for animals impaled by shrikes can improve biodiversity inventories, complementing other commonly used methods

Isotope evidence for the use of marine resources in the Eastern Iberian Mesolithic

There are relatively few coastal Mesolithic sites in the Iberian Mediterranean region, probably due to a number of factors including sea level changes and the disappearance of sites due to agriculture and urbanisation. However, recent excavations have uncovered inland sites that have marine faunal remains (i.e. molluscs and fish) and lithics from the coastal area, which both indicate interactions between the coast and the upland valleys. These inland sites are located at a distance of 30e50 km from today¿s coastline and are at altitudes higher than 1000 m. We report on additional information on the links between the coast and these inland sites through the use of dietary isotope analysis (carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis) of collagen extracted from human and faunal remains at the sites of Coves de Santa Maira, Penya del Comptador and Cingle del Mas Nou. The results indicate that Mesolithic diet in this region was largely based on C3 terrestrial resources, but there was measurable evidence of low-level consumption of marine resources at both coastal and inland sites

Smoking and drinking in relation to oral potentially malignant disorders in Puerto Rico: a case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Oral cancer incidence is high on the Island of Puerto Rico (PR), particularly among males. As part of a larger study conducted in PR, we evaluated smoking and drinking as risk factors for oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Persons diagnosed with either an OPMD (n = 86) [oral epithelial dysplasia (OED), oral hyperkeratosis/epithelial hyperplasia without OED] or a benign oral tissue condition (n = 155) were identified through PR pathology laboratories. Subjects were interviewed using a standardized, structured questionnaire that obtained information, including detailed histories of smoking and drinking. Odds ratios (ORs) for smoking and drinking in relation to having an OPMD, relative to persons with a benign oral tissue condition, were obtained using logistic regression and adjusted for age, gender, education, fruit/vegetable intake and smoking or drinking.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For persons with an OPMD and relative to individuals with a benign oral tissue condition, the adjusted OR for current smoking was 4.32 (95% CI: 1.99-9.38), while for former smokers, the OR_adjwas 1.47 (95% CI: 0.67-3.21), each OR_adjrelative to never smokers. With regard to drinking, no adjusted ORs approached statistical significance, and few point estimates exceeded 1.0, whether consumption was defined in terms of ever, current, level (drinks/week), or beverage type.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study, conducted in Puerto Rico, current smoking was a substantial risk factor for OPMDs while former smokers had a considerably reduced risk compared to current smokers. There was little evidence suggesting that alcohol consumption was positively associated with OPMD risk.</p

Multidimensional Signals and Analytic Flexibility: Estimating Degrees of Freedom in Human-Speech Analyses

Recent empirical studies have highlighted the large degree of analytic flexibility in data analysis that can lead to substantially different conclusions based on the same data set. Thus, researchers have expressed their concerns that these researcher degrees of freedom might facilitate bias and can lead to claims that do not stand the test of time. Even greater flexibility is to be expected in fields in which the primary data lend themselves to a variety of possible operationalizations. The multidimensional, temporally extended nature of speech constitutes an ideal testing ground for assessing the variability in analytic approaches, which derives not only from aspects of statistical modeling but also from decisions regarding the quantification of the measured behavior. In this study, we gave the same speech-production data set to 46 teams of researchers and asked them to answer the same research question, resulting in substantial variability in reported effect sizes and their interpretation. Using Bayesian meta-analytic tools, we further found little to no evidence that the observed variability can be explained by analysts’ prior beliefs, expertise, or the perceived quality of their analyses. In light of this idiosyncratic variability, we recommend that researchers more transparently share details of their analysis, strengthen the link between theoretical construct and quantitative system, and calibrate their (un)certainty in their conclusions

Perspectives of San Juan healthcare practitioners on the detection deficit in oral premalignant and early cancers in Puerto Rico: a qualitative research study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Puerto Rico, relative to the United States, a disparity exists in detecting oral precancers and early cancers. To identify factors leading to the deficit in early detection, we obtained the perspectives of San Juan healthcare practitioners whose practice could be involved in the detection of such oral lesions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Key informant (KI) interviews were conducted with ten clinicians practicing in or around San Juan, Puerto Rico. We then triangulated our KI interview findings with other data sources, including recent literature on oral cancer detection from various geographic areas, current curricula at the University of Puerto Rico Schools of Medicine and Dental Medicine, as well as local health insurance regulations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Key informant-identified factors that likely contribute to the detection deficit include: many practitioners are deficient in knowledge regarding oral cancer and precancer; oral cancer screening examinations are limited regarding which patients receive them and the elements included. In Puerto Rico, specialists generally perform oral biopsies, and patient referral can be delayed by various factors, including government-subsidized health insurance, often referred to as Reforma. Reforma-based issues include often inadequate clinician knowledge regarding Reforma requirements/provisions, diagnostic delays related to Reforma bureaucracy, and among primary physicians, a perceived financial disincentive in referring Reforma patients.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Addressing these issues may be useful in reducing the deficit in detecting oral precancers and early oral cancer in Puerto Rico.</p

Middle Neolithic farming of open-air sites in SE France: new insights from archaeobotanical investigations of three wells found at Les Bagnoles (L'Isle-sur-la-Sorgue, Dépt. Vaucluse, France)

Previous reviews of Middle Neolithic agricultural practice (4400–3500 cal bc) in southern France have highlighted a change in crop assemblages after 4000 cal bc, with a reduction of naked wheat and an increase of emmer and partly of einkorn. The recent investigation of three wells from the site of Les Bagnoles (4250–3800 cal bc) in the periphery of the southern Rhône valley yielded an unprecedented amount of waterlogged uncharred and charred plant macro remains that offer new insights into crop diversity and its changes over time. The results from the wells at Les Bagnoles were compared with other dated sunken features from open-air sites (in contrast to caves and rock shelters), with the aim of identifying patterns sug-gesting changes in the crop spectra between the early (MN1) and late (MN2) Middle Neolithic phases from taphonomically comparable contexts. The results from Les Bagnoles demonstrate that oil crops and pulses are underrepresented in dry sites and that they were a significant part of Middle Neolithic agriculture. They also indicate an increase in the representation of einkorn (instead of emmer) during MN2 that is also visible in other open-air sites. The comparison of the archaeobotani-cal results with silo storage capacity values as a proxy for average production capacity per household leads us to propose a possible drop in naked wheat productivity and opens new questions in factors affecting crop choice at the beginning of the 4th millennium cal bc