Fast Ensemble Smoothing

Smoothing is essential to many oceanographic, meteorological and hydrological applications. The interval smoothing problem updates all desired states within a time interval using all available observations. The fixed-lag smoothing problem updates only a fixed number of states prior to the observation at current time. The fixed-lag smoothing problem is, in general, thought to be computationally faster than a fixed-interval smoother, and can be an appropriate approximation for long interval-smoothing problems. In this paper, we use an ensemble-based approach to fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing, and synthesize two algorithms. The first algorithm produces a linear time solution to the interval smoothing problem with a fixed factor, and the second one produces a fixed-lag solution that is independent of the lag length. Identical-twin experiments conducted with the Lorenz-95 model show that for lag lengths approximately equal to the error doubling time, or for long intervals the proposed methods can provide significant computational savings. These results suggest that ensemble methods yield both fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing solutions that cost little additional effort over filtering and model propagation, in the sense that in practical ensemble application the additional increment is a small fraction of either filtering or model propagation costs. We also show that fixed-interval smoothing can perform as fast as fixed-lag smoothing and may be advantageous when memory is not an issue

Anesthesiologists' and surgeons' perceptions about routine pre-operative testing in low risk patients: application of the Theoretical Domains Framework to identify factors that influence physicians' decisions to order pre-operative tests

Background Routine pre-operative tests for anesthesia management are often ordered by both anesthesiologists and surgeons for healthy patients undergoing low-risk surgery. The Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) was developed to investigate determinants of behaviour and identify potential behaviour change interventions. In this study, the TDF is used to explore anaesthesiologists’ and surgeons’ perceptions of ordering routine tests for healthy patients undergoing low-risk surgery. Conclusion We identified key factors that anesthesiologists and surgeons believe influence whether they order pre-operative tests routinely for anesthesia management for a healthy adults undergoing low-risk surgery. These beliefs identify potential individual, team, and organisation targets for behaviour change interventions to reduce unnecessary routine test ordering. Methods Sixteen clinicians (eleven anesthesiologists and five surgeons) throughout Ontario were recruited. An interview guide based on the TDF was developed to identify beliefs about preoperative testing practices. Content analysis of physicians’ statements into the relevant theoretical domains was performed. Specific beliefs were identified by grouping similar utterances of the interview participants. Relevant domains were identified by noting the frequencies of the beliefs reported, presence of conflicting beliefs, and perceived influence on the performance of the behaviour under investigation. Results Seven of the twelve domains were identified as likely relevant to changing clinicians’ behaviour about pre-operative test ordering for anesthesia management. Key beliefs were identified within these domains including: conflicting comments about who was responsible for the test-ordering (Social/professional role and identity); inability to cancel tests ordered by fellow physicians (Beliefs about capabilities and social influences); and the problem with tests being completed before the anesthesiologists see the patient (Beliefs about capabilities and Environmental context and resources). Often, tests were ordered by an anesthesiologist based on who may be the attending anesthesiologist on the day of surgery while surgeons ordered tests they thought anesthesiologists may need (Social influences). There were also conflicting comments about the potential consequences associated with reducing testing, from negative (delay or cancel patients’ surgeries), to indifference (little or no change in patient outcomes), to positive (save money, avoid unnecessary investigations) (Beliefs about consequences). Further, while most agreed that they are motivated to reduce ordering unnecessary tests (Motivation and goals), there was still a report of a gap between their motivation and practice (Behavioural regulation)

FishNet: an online database of zebrafish anatomy

Background: Over the last two decades, zebrafish have been established as a genetically versatile model system for investigating many different aspects of vertebrate developmental biology. With the credentials of zebrafish as a developmental model now well recognized, the emerging new opportunity is the wider application of zebrafish biology to aspects of human disease modelling. This rapidly increasing use of zebrafish as a model for human disease has necessarily generated interest in the anatomy of later developmental phases such as the larval, juvenile, and adult stages, during which many of the key aspects of organ morphogenesis and maturation take place. Anatomical resources and references that encompass these stages are non-existent in zebrafish and there is therefore an urgent need to understand how different organ systems and anatomical structures develop throughout the life of the fish. Results: To overcome this deficit we have utilized the technique of optical projection tomography to produce three-dimensional (3D) models of larval fish. In order to view and display these models we have created FishNet http://www.fishnet.org.au, an interactive reference of zebrafish anatomy spanning the range of zebrafish development from 24 h until adulthood. Conclusion: FishNet contains more than 36 000 images of larval zebrafish, with more than 1 500 of these being annotated. The 3D models can be manipulated on screen or virtually sectioned. This resource represents the first complete embryo to adult atlas for any species in 3D

A Meta-Analysis of Microarray Gene Expression in Mouse Stem Cells: Redefining Stemness

While much progress has been made in understanding stem cell (SC) function, a complete description of the molecular mechanisms regulating SCs is not yet established. This lack of knowledge is a major barrier holding back the discovery of therapeutic uses of SCs. We investigated the value of a novel meta-analysis of microarray gene expression in mouse SCs to aid the elucidation of regulatory mechanisms common to SCs and particular SC types.We added value to previously published microarray gene expression data by characterizing the promoter type likely to regulate transcription. Promoters of up-regulated genes in SCs were characterized in terms of alternative promoter (AP) usage and CpG-richness, with the aim of correlating features known to affect transcriptional control with SC function. We found that SCs have a higher proportion of up-regulated genes using CpG-rich promoters compared with the negative controls. Comparing subsets of SC type with the controls a slightly different story unfolds. The differences between the proliferating adult SCs and the embryonic SCs versus the negative controls are statistically significant. Whilst the difference between the quiescent adult SCs compared with the negative controls is not. On examination of AP usage, no difference was observed between SCs and the controls. However, comparing the subsets of SC type with the controls, the quiescent adult SCs are found to up-regulate a larger proportion of genes that have APs compared to the controls and the converse is true for the proliferating adult SCs and the embryonic SCs.These findings suggest that looking at features associated with control of transcription is a promising future approach for characterizing “stemness” and that further investigations of stemness could benefit from separate considerations of different SC states. For example, “proliferating-stemness” is shown here, in terms of promoter usage, to be distinct from “quiescent-stemness”

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Intensive intervention for children and adolescents with autism in a community setting in Italy: a single-group longitudinal study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies have shown favourable results with intensive behavioural treatment for children with autism: evidence has emerged that treatment can be successfully implemented in a community setting and in adolescent participants. The aim of this study was to describe the 2-year adaptive functioning outcome of children and adolescents with autism treated intensively within the context of special autism centres, as well as to evaluate family satisfaction with the activity of the centres.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sixty participants with autism (20 females and 40 males, aged between 4 and 18 years) attending the semi-residential rehabilitation centres for autism located in the Abruzzo region (Central Italy) were followed up and their adaptive functioning was evaluated both at baseline and after one and two years using the Vineland Adaptive Behaviour Scales (VABS). Parents' satisfaction with the service was evaluated using the Orbetello Satisfaction Scale for Children and Adolescent Mental Health.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The increase in VABS scores was significant on several domains in the different gender and age categories. It is worth noting that male children had improved a great deal (roughly, an effect size >0.20) in the domains of communication, daily living and motor skills (effect sizes 0.34, 0.45 and 0.27 respectively) whereas in male adolescents, a notable increase in VABS scores was recorded in the domain of socialization only (effect size 0.23). On the other hand, adaptive behaviour in female children increased in the domains of socialization and motor skills (effect sizes 0.27 and 0.42 respectively) whereas in female adolescents, good results were achieved in the domains of daily living, socialization and motor skills (effect sizes 0.22, 0.26 and 0.20 respectively).</p> <p>The level of satisfaction of users of the service over time was found to be substantial, even when they had recently started the program.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results support the implementation of special autism treatment community centres, based on a parent co-directed rehabilitative, intensive and early intervention. Further experimental research designed to document the effectiveness of services provided to children and adolescents with autism in the community is recommended.</p

Comparing the effect of STan (cardiotocographic electronic fetal monitoring (CTG) plus analysis of the ST segment of the fetal electrocardiogram) with CTG alone on emergency caesarean section rates: study protocol for the STan Australian Randomised controlled Trial (START).

BACKGROUND: Cardiotocography is almost ubiquitous in its use in intrapartum care. Although it has been demonstrated that there is some benefit from continuous intrapartum fetal monitoring using cardiotocography, there is also an increased risk of caesarean section which is accompanied by short-term and long-term risks to the mother and child. There is considerable potential to reduce unnecessary operative delivery with up to a 60% false positive diagnosis of fetal distress using cardiotocography alone. ST analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram is a promising adjunct to cardiotocography alone, and permits detection of metabolic acidosis of the fetus, potentially reducing false positive diagnosis of fetal distress. METHODS: This study will be a single-centre, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial, conducted over 3 years. The primary hypothesis will be that the proportion of women with an emergency caesarean section on ST analysis will not equal that for women on cardiotocography monitoring alone. Participants will be recruited at the Women's and Children's Hospital, a high-risk specialty facility with approximately 5000 deliveries per annum. A total of 1818 women will be randomised to the treatment or conventional arm with an allocation ratio of 1:1, stratified by parity. The primary outcome is emergency caesarean section (yes/no). Statistical analysis will follow standard methods for randomised trials and will be performed on an intention-to-treat basis. Secondary maternal and neonatal outcomes will also be analysed. Additional study outcomes include psychosocial outcomes, patient preferences and cost-effectiveness. DISCUSSION: Approximately 20% of Australian babies are delivered by emergency caesarean section. This will be the first Australian trial to examine ST analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram as an adjunct to cardiotocography as a potential method for reducing this proportion. The trial will be among the first to comprehensively examine ST analysis, taking into account the impact on psychosocial well-being as well as cost-effectiveness. This research will provide Australian evidence for clinical practice and guideline development as well as for policy-makers and consumers to make informed, evidence-based choices about care in labour. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ANZCTR, ACTRN1261800006268 . Registered on 19 January 2018