Evaluation of the Met Office global forecast model using Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) data

Simulations of the top-of-atmosphere radiative-energy budget from the Met Office global numerical weather-prediction model are evaluated using new data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on board the Meteosat-8 satellite. Systematic discrepancies between the model simulations and GERB measurements greater than 20 Wm-2 in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and greater than 60 Wm-2 in reflected short-wave radiation (RSR) are identified over the period April-September 2006 using 12 UTC data. Convective cloud over equatorial Africa is spatially less organized and less reflective than in the GERB data. This bias depends strongly on convective-cloud cover, which is highly sensitive to changes in the model convective parametrization. Underestimates in model OLR over the Gulf of Guinea coincide with unrealistic southerly cloud outflow from convective centres to the north. Large overestimates in model RSR over the subtropical ocean, greater than 50 Wm-2 at 12 UTC, are explained by unrealistic radiative properties of low-level cloud relating to overestimation of cloud liquid water compared with independent satellite measurements. The results of this analysis contribute to the development and improvement of parametrizations in the global forecast model

An evaluation of operational and research weather forecasts for Southern West Africa using observations from the DACCIWA field campaign in June‐July 2016

Reliable and accurate weather forecasts have the potential to improve living conditions in densely populated southern West Africa (SWA), in particularly those of rainfall and its extremes. A limited availability of observations has long impeded a rigorous evaluation of current state‐of‐the‐art forecast models. The field campaign of the Dynamics‐Aerosol‐Chemistry‐Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project in June‐July 2016 has created an unprecedentedly dense set of measurements from surface stations and radiosondes. Here we present results from a comprehensive evaluation of both numerical model forecasts and satellite products using these data on a regional and local level. Results reveal a substantial observational uncertainty showing considerable underestimations in satellite estimates of rainfall and low‐cloud cover with little correlation at the local scale. Models have a dry bias of 0.1–1.9 mmday−1 in rainfall and too low column relative humidity. They tend to underestimate low clouds, leading to excess surface solar radiation of 43 Wm−2. Remarkably, most models show some skill in representing regional modulations of rainfall related to synoptic‐scale disturbances, while local variations in rainfall and cloudiness are hardly captured. Slightly better results are found with respect to temperature and for the post‐onset rather than for the pre‐onset period. Delicate local features such as the Maritime Inflow phenomenon are also rather poorly represented, leading to too cool, dry and cloudy conditions at the coast. Differences between forecast days 1 and 2 are relatively small and hardly systematic, suggesting a relatively quick error saturation. Using explicit convection leads to more realistic spatial variability in rainfall, but otherwise no marked improvement. Future work should aim at improving the subtle balance between the diurnal cycles of low clouds, surface radiation, the boundary layer and convection. Further efforts are also needed to improve the observational system beyond field campaign periods

Forecasting the monsoon on daily to seasonal time‐scales in support of a field campaign

The successful planning and execution of a major field campaign relies on the availability and reliability of weather forecasts on a range of time‐scales. Here, we describe the wide range of forecast products generated in support of a field campaign that took place in India in 2016 as part of the Interaction of Convective Organization with Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS) project. We show examples of the suite of plots generated every day from the forecasts and supplied to the mission scientists, and describe how these were used to plan the flights. We highlight the benefits of having access to forecasts from a range of model resolutions and configurations; these allowed judgements to be made about uncertainty, particularly in the amount and location of deep convective rainfall, which is an important consideration for flight planning. Finally, we discuss the legacy of the forecasting activity, which has not only advanced our understanding of monsoon forecasting but also created a large database of targeted model forecast products for the whole of the 2016 monsoon season. These can be used by researchers for comparisons with in situ observations as well as future modelling studies

Ligand selectivity in stabilising tandem parallel folded G-quadruplex motifs in human telomeric DNA sequences

Biophysical studies of ligand interactions with three human telomeric repeat sequences (d(AGGG(TTAGGG)n, n = 3, 7 and 11)) show that an oxazole-based ‘click’ ligand, which induces parallel folded quadruplexes, preferentially stabilises longer telomeric repeats providing evidence for selectivity in binding at the interface between tandem quadruplex motifs

The First New Zealanders: Patterns of Diet and Mobility Revealed through Isotope Analysis

Direct evidence of the environmental impact of human colonization and subsequent human adaptational responses to new environments is extremely rare anywhere in the world. New Zealand was the last Polynesian island group to be settled by humans, who arrived around the end of the 13th century AD. Little is known about the nature of human adaptation and mobility during the initial phase of colonization. We report the results of the isotopic analysis (carbon, nitrogen and strontium) of the oldest prehistoric skeletons discovered in New Zealand to assess diet and migration patterns. The isotope data show that the culturally distinctive burials, Group 1, had similar diets and childhood origins, supporting the assertion that this group was distinct from Group 2/3 and may have been part of the initial colonizing population at the site. The Group 2/3 individuals displayed highly variable diets and likely lived in different regions of the country before their burial at Wairau Bar, supporting the archaeological evidence that people were highly mobile in New Zealand since the initial phase of human settlement.: University of Otago Research Grant (http://www.otago.ac.nz/research/otago004140.html); A grant-in-aid by the School of Medical Sciences, University of Otago (http://osms.otago.ac.nz/); The Mason Foundation (http://research-hub.griffith.edu.au/display/fosc_MASONG); Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund (http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/programmes/funds/marsden/) grant number UOO0711. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Fostering Program Comprehension in Novice Programmers - Learning Activities and Learning Trajectories

This working group asserts that Program Comprehension (ProgComp) plays a critical part in the process of writing programs. For example, this paper is written from a basic draft that was edited and revised until it clearly presented our idea. Similarly, a program is written incrementally, with each step tested, debugged and extended until the program achieves its goal. Novice programmers should develop program comprehension skills as they learn to code so that they are able both to read and reason about code created by others, and to reflect on their code when writing, debugging or extending it. To foster such competencies our group identified two main goals: (g1) to collect and define learning activities that explicitly address key components of program comprehension and (g2) to define tentative theoretical learning trajectories that will guide teachers as they select and sequence those learning activities in their CS0/CS1/CS2 or K-12 courses. The WG has completed the first goal and laid down a strong foundation towards the second goal as presented in this report. After a thorough literature review, a detailed description of the Block Model is provided, as this model has been used with a dual purpose, to classify and present an extensive list of ProgComp tasks, and to describe a possible learning trajectory for a complex task, covering different cells of the Block Model matrix. The latter is intended to help instructors to decompose complex tasks and identify which aspects of ProgComp are being fostered

The effect of lengthening contractions on neuromuscular junction structure in adult and old mice

Skeletal muscles of old mice demonstrate a profound inability to regenerate fully following damage. Such a failure could be catastrophic to older individuals where muscle loss is already evident. Degeneration and regeneration of muscle fibres following contraction-induced injury in adult and old mice are well characterised, but little is known about the accompanying changes in motor neurons and neuromuscular junctions (NMJs) following this form of injury although defective re-innervation of muscle following contraction-induced damage has been proposed to play a role in sarcopenia. This study visualised and quantified structural changes to motor neurons and NMJs in Extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscles of adult and old Thy1-YFP transgenic mice during regeneration following contraction-induced muscle damage. Data demonstrated that the damaging contraction protocol resulted in substantial initial disruption to NMJs in muscles of adult mice, which was reversed entirely within 28 days following damage. In contrast, in quiescent muscles of old mice, ∼15 % of muscle fibres were denervated and ∼80 % of NMJs showed disruption. This proportion of denervated and partially denervated fibres remained unchanged following recovery from contraction-induced damage in muscles of old mice although ∼25 % of muscle fibres were completely lost by 28 days post-contractions. Thus, in old mice, the failure to restore full muscle force generation that occurs following damage does not appear to be due to any further deficit in the percentage of disrupted NMJs, but appears to be due, at least in part, to the complete loss of muscle fibres following damag

Mechanical versus manual chest compression for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (PARAMEDIC) : a pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Mechanical chest compression devices have the potential to help maintain high-quality cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), but despite their increasing use, little evidence exists for their effectiveness. We aimed to study whether the introduction of LUCAS-2 mechanical CPR into front-line emergency response vehicles would improve survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. METHODS: The pre-hospital randomised assessment of a mechanical compression device in cardiac arrest (PARAMEDIC) trial was a pragmatic, cluster-randomised open-label trial including adults with non-traumatic, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from four UK Ambulance Services (West Midlands, North East England, Wales, South Central). 91 urban and semi-urban ambulance stations were selected for participation. Clusters were ambulance service vehicles, which were randomly assigned (1:2) to LUCAS-2 or manual CPR. Patients received LUCAS-2 mechanical chest compression or manual chest compressions according to the first trial vehicle to arrive on scene. The primary outcome was survival at 30 days following cardiac arrest and was analysed by intention to treat. Ambulance dispatch staff and those collecting the primary outcome were masked to treatment allocation. Masking of the ambulance staff who delivered the interventions and reported initial response to treatment was not possible. The study is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN08233942. FINDINGS: We enrolled 4471 eligible patients (1652 assigned to the LUCAS-2 group, 2819 assigned to the control group) between April 15, 2010 and June 10, 2013. 985 (60%) patients in the LUCAS-2 group received mechanical chest compression, and 11 (<1%) patients in the control group received LUCAS-2. In the intention-to-treat analysis, 30 day survival was similar in the LUCAS-2 group (104 [6%] of 1652 patients) and in the manual CPR group (193 [7%] of 2819 patients; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·86, 95% CI 0·64-1·15). No serious adverse events were noted. Seven clinical adverse events were reported in the LUCAS-2 group (three patients with chest bruising, two with chest lacerations, and two with blood in mouth). 15 device incidents occurred during operational use. No adverse or serious adverse events were reported in the manual group. INTERPRETATION: We noted no evidence of improvement in 30 day survival with LUCAS-2 compared with manual compressions. On the basis of ours and other recent randomised trials, widespread adoption of mechanical CPR devices for routine use does not improve survival

Operational Dust Prediction

Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed