Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using components of fire weather.

The probability of large-fire (\u3e= 1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue Mountains. The preferred, additive combination of drought and ambient weather had a marked threshold effect on large-fire ignition and total area burned in both localities. This may be due to a landscape-scale increase in the connectivity of available fuel at high values of the index. Higher probability of large fires on the Central Coast may be due to more subdued terrain or higher population density and ignitions. Climate scenarios for 2050 yielded predictions of a 20-84% increase in potential large-fire ignitions days, using the preferred model

Wildfire and climate impacts tree hollow density in a temperate Australian forest

Tree hollows are an important landscape resource used by fauna for shelter, nesting, and predator avoidance. In fire-prone landscapes, wildfire and climate may impact hollow dynamics; however, assessments of their concurrent impacts are rare. We conducted a field survey at 80 sites in the Sydney Basin bioregion (Australia) to understand how fire frequency, fire severity, mean annual temperature, and mean annual precipitation concurrently impacted the site-density of small- (10 cm entry width) tree hollows and tree basal scars (which mediate hollow formation via invertebrate access to heartwood), when tree-size and dead/live status were considered. A unimodal relationship occurred between medium- and large-sized hollow densities and fire frequency and severity, respectively, with hollow densities greatest at intermediate frequencies/severities. Increases of 1.82, 1.43, and 1.17 hollows per site were observed between the 1 (reference) and 2, 2 and 3, and 3 and >3 fire frequency categories. Increases of 1.26, 1.75 and 0.75 hollows per site were observed between the low (reference) and moderate, moderate and high, and high and very high fire severity categories. Fire severity was also positively associated with basal scar density, with increases of 2.52, 8.15, and 8.47 trees per site between the low (reference) and moderate, moderate and high, and high and very high categories. A weak positive and stronger negative association was observed between mean annual temperature and small-sized hollow and basal scar density, respectively. Dead and medium-sized tree density was positively associated with medium-sized hollow and basal scar tree density, respectively. Collectively, our results suggest that wildfires, and in some cases climate, have diverse and size-specific impacts on tree hollow and basal scar density. Our results imply that fire regimes that allow for moderately severe wildfire will promote larger-sized tree hollows, which are a limiting resource for many fauna species

How old is the Tasmanian cultural landscape? a test of landscape openness using quantitative land-cover reconstructions

Aim: To test competing hypotheses about the timing and extent of Holocene landscape opening using pollen-based quantitative land-cover estimates. Location: Dove Lake, Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia. Methods: Fossil pollen data were incorporated into pollen dispersal models and corrected for differences in pollen productivity among key plant taxa. Mechanistic models (REVEALS-Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites) employing different models for pollen dispersal (Gaussian plume and Lagrangian stochastic models) were evaluated and applied in the Southern Hemisphere for the first time. Results: Validation of the REVEALS model with vegetation cover data suggests an overall better performance of the Lagrangian stochastic model. Regional land-cover estimates for forest and non-forest plant taxa show persistent landscape openness throughout the Holocene (average landscape openness similar to 50%). Gymnoschoenus sphaerocephalus, an indicator of moorland vegetation, shows higher values during the early Holocene (11.7-9 ka) and declines slightly through the mid-Holocene (9-4.5 ka) during a phase of partial landscape afforestation. Rain forest cover reduced (from similar to 40% to similar to 20%) during the period between 4.2-3.5 ka. Main conclusions: Pollen percentages severely under-represent landscape openness in western Tasmania and this bias has fostered an over-estimation of Holocene forest cover from pollen data. Treeless vegetation dominated Holocene landscapes of the Dove Lake area, allowing us to reject models of landscape evolution that invoke late-Holocene replacement of a rain forest-dominated landscape by moorland. Instead, we confirm a model of Late Pleistocene inheritance of open vegetation. Rapid forest decline occurred after c.4 ka, likely in response to regional moisture decline.Australian Research Council; AINSE AWARD [ALNGRA16024]; AINSE PGRA scholarship [12039]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Long-term in vitro maintenance of clonal abundance and leukaemia-initiating potential in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

Lack of suitable in vitro culture conditions for primary acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) cells severely impairs their experimental accessibility and the testing of new drugs on cell material reflecting clonal heterogeneity in patients. We show that Nestin-positive human mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) support expansion of a range of biologically and clinically distinct patient-derived ALL samples. Adherent ALL cells showed an increased accumulation in the S phase of the cell cycle and diminished apoptosis when compared with cells in the suspension fraction. Moreover, surface expression of adhesion molecules CD34, CDH2 and CD10 increased several fold. Approximately 20% of the ALL cells were in G0 phase of the cell cycle, suggesting that MSCs may support quiescent ALL cells. Cellular barcoding demonstrated long-term preservation of clonal abundance. Expansion of ALL cells for >3 months compromised neither feeder dependence nor cancer initiating ability as judged by their engraftment potential in immunocompromised mice. Finally, we demonstrate the suitability of this co-culture approach for the investigation of drug combinations with luciferase-expressing primograft ALL cells. Taken together, we have developed a preclinical platform with patient-derived material that will facilitate the development of clinically effective combination therapies for ALL

Biological and geophysical feedbacks with fire in the Earth system

Roughly 3% of the Earth’s land surface burns annually, representing a critical exchange of energy and matter between the land and atmosphere via combustion. Fires range from slow smouldering peat fires, to low-intensity surface fires, to intense crown fires, depending on vegetation structure, fuel moisture, prevailing climate, and weather conditions. While the links between biogeochemistry, climate and fire are widely studied within Earth system science, these relationships are also mediated by fuels—namely plants and their litter—that are the product of evolutionary and ecological processes. Fire is a powerful selective force and, over their evolutionary history, plants have evolved traits that both tolerate and promote fire numerous times and across diverse clades. Here we outline a conceptual framework of how plant traits determine the flammability of ecosystems and interact with climate and weather to influence fire regimes. We explore how these evolutionary and ecological processes scale to impact biogeochemical and Earth system processes. Finally, we outline several research challenges that, when resolved, will improve our understanding of the role of plant evolution in mediating the fire feedbacks driving Earth system processes. Understanding current patterns of fire and vegetation, as well as patterns of fire over geological time, requires research that incorporates evolutionary biology, ecology, biogeography, and the biogeosciences

Biological and geophysical feedbacks with fire in the Earth System

Roughly 3% of the Earth’s land surface burns annually, representing a critical exchange of energy and matter between the land and atmosphere via combustion. Fires range from slow smouldering peat fires, to low-intensity surface fires, to intense crown fires, depending on vegetation structure, fuel moisture, prevailing climate, and weather conditions. While the links between biogeochemistry, climate and fire are widely studied within Earth system science, these relationships are also mediated by fuels – namely plants and their litter – which are the product of evolutionary and ecological processes. Fire is a powerful selective force and, over their evolutionary history, plants across diverse clades have evolved numerous traits that either tolerate or promote fire. Here we outline a conceptual framework of how plant traits determine the flammability of ecosystems and interact with climate and weather to influence fire regimes. We explore how these evolutionary and ecological processes scale to impact biogeochemistry and Earth system processes. Finally, we outline several research challenges that, when resolved, will improve our understanding of the role of plant evolution in mediating the fire feedbacks driving Earth system processes. Understanding current patterns of fire and vegetation, as well as patterns of fire over geological time, requires research that incorporates evolutionary biology, ecology, biogeography, and the biogeosciences

Clostridium difficile Infections amongst Patients with Haematological Malignancies: A Data Linkage Study

OBJECTIVES: Identify risk factors for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and assess CDI outcomes among Australian patients with a haematological malignancy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study involving all patients admitted to hospitals in Western Australia with a haematological malignancy from July 2011 to June 2012. Hospital admission data were linked with all hospital investigated CDI case data. Potential risk factors were assessed by logistic regression. The risk of death within 60 and 90 days of CDI was assessed by Cox Proportional Hazards regression. RESULTS: There were 2085 patients of whom 65 had at least one CDI. Twenty percent of CDI cases were either community-acquired, indeterminate source or had only single-day admissions in the 28 days prior to CDI. Using logistic regression, having acute lymphocytic leukaemia, neutropenia and having had bacterial pneumonia or another bacterial infection were associated with CDI. CDI was associated with an increased risk of death within 60 and 90 days post CDI, but only two deaths had CDI recorded as an antecedent factor. Ribotyping information was available for 33 of the 65 CDIs. There were 19 different ribotypes identified. CONCLUSIONS: Neutropenia was strongly associated with CDI. While having CDI is a risk factor for death, in many cases it may not be a direct contributor to death but may reflect patients having higher morbidity. A wide variety of C. difficile ribotypes were found and community-acquired infection may be under-estimated in these patients

Disparate In Vivo Efficacy of FTY720 in Xenograft Models of Philadelphia Positive and Negative B-lineage Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

Most patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) respond well to standard chemotherapy-based treatments. However a significant proportion of patients, particularly adult patients, relapse with the majority dying of leukemia. FTY720 is an immunosuppressive drug that was recently approved for the treatment of multiple sclerosis and is currently under pre-clinical investigation as a therapy for a number of hematological malignancies. Using human ALL xenografts in NOD/SCIDγc−/− mice, we show for the first time that three Ph+ human ALL xenografts responded to FTY720 with an 80±12% (p = 0.048) reduction in overall disease when treatment was commenced early. In contrast, treatment of mice with FTY720 did not result in reduced leukemia compared to controls using four separate human Ph− ALL xenografts. Although FTY720 reactivated PP2A in vitro, this reactivation was not required for death of Ph− ALL cells. The plasma levels of FTY720 achieved in the mice were in the high nanomolar range. However, the response seen in the Ph+ ALL xenografts when treatment was initiated early implies that in vivo efficacy may be obtained with substantially lower drug concentrations than those required in vitro. Our data suggest that while FTY720 may have potential as a treatment for Ph+ ALL it will not be a useful agent for the treatment of Ph− B-ALL

Ecological implications of fine-scale fire patchiness and severity in tropical savannas of northern Australia

Research ArticleUnderstanding fine-scale fire patchiness has significant implications for ecological processes and biodiversity conservation. It can affect local extinction of and recolonisation by relatively immobile fauna and poorly seed-dispersed flora in fire-affected areas. This study assesses fine-scale fire patchiness and severity, and associated implications for biodiversity, in north Australian tropical savanna systems. We used line transects to sample burning patterns of ground layer vegetation in different seasons and vegetation structure types, within the perimeter of 35 fires that occurred between 2009 and 2011. We evaluated two main fire characteristics: patchiness (patch density and mean patch length) and severity (inferred from char and scorch heights, and char and ash proportions). The mean burned area of ground vegetation was 83 % in the early dry season (EDS: May to July) and 93 % in the late dry season (LDS: August to November). LDS fires were less patchy (smaller and fewer unburned patches), and had higher fire severity (higher mean char and scorch heights, and twice the proportion of ash) than EDS fires. Fire patchiness varied among vegetation types, declining under more open canopy structure. The relationship between burned area and fire severity depended on season, being strongly correlated in the EDS and uncorrelated in the LDS. Simulations performed to understand the implications of patchiness on the population dynamics of fire-interval sensitive plant species showed that small amounts of patchiness substantially enhance survival. Our results indicate that the ecological impacts of high frequency fires on firesensitive regional biodiversity elements are likely to be lower than has been predicted from remotely sensed studies that are based on assumptions of homogeneous burninginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio